Budget minus three days

No Morgan poll this week – in a half-baked attempt to tie the headline to the post, here’s a link to an analysis by Possum posing the question, “is there a polling budget effect?&#148 (short answer: no). With that out of the way:

• Greg Roberts of The Australian reports on the demise of a Queensland Coalition deal in which Barnaby Joyce was to move to the lower house and Liberal Senator Russell Trood was to maintain the existing balance in the Senate by joining the Nationals. The Liberals’ end of the deal was reportedly vetoed by federal Liberal president Alan Stockdale, prompting Joyce to angrily declare he would not be moving from the Senate. Trood’s factional ally, former state Liberal president Bob Carroll, says he would stake his life on Trood never agreeing to sit in the Nationals rather than the Liberal party room. This would seem to be a pretty big call, given that Trood’s alternative is to stay in the surely unwinnable fourth position on the Liberal National ticket.

• Fans of factional argybargy can unearth a motherlode of detail on Labor’s western Melbourne fiefdoms from the Victorian Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council. Among the matters examined is the highly fraught preselection for last year’s Kororoit by-election, with the Ombudsman recommending an investigation into a possible breach of the Local Government Act by failed aspirant and former mayor Natalie Suleyman. It is alleged that a funding decision for a sports ground redevelopment was influenced by a desire to win the support of Keilor MP and Right powerbroker George Seitz, and that efforts were made to withdraw the funding when Seitz failed to come through.

• Peter Kennedy of the ABC notes that preselection nominations for federal Liberal seats in WA close in less than three weeks, so those gunning for the removal of Pearce MP Judi Moylan and O’Connor MP Wilson Tuckey don’t have long to get their act together. Matt Brown tells Kennedy he hasn’t made up his mind whether to launch a second challenge against Dennis Jensen in Tangney, although jockeying in local branches suggests otherwise.

• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports that Bronwyn Bishop’s hold on the larger branches in her electorate of Mackellar has “slipped”. One of the potential challengers, believe it or not, is former state Opposition Leader John Brogden. Another is a blast from an even more distant past – Jim Longley, who preceded Brogden as member for the local state seat of Pittwater.

• Western Australia’s minority Liberal-National government lost a vote in the Legislative Assembly on Wednesday, which I believe to be the first defeat for a government there in 17 years. At issue was a highly contentious bill to replace preferential voting at local government elections with first-past-the-post. However, the defeat resulted from the absence of four ministers from the chamber, and the bill was passed on a second attempt later in the day. The subject of the bill itself is obviously worth discussion, which I will attend to eventually. For whatever reason, the seemingly retrograde measure has the support of the Western Australian Local Government Association.

• A report by the Youth Electoral Study for the Australian Electoral Commission finds 20 per cent of youths aged 18 to 25 are not enrolled to vote, and “close to half” wouldn’t vote if it wasn’t compulsory. Those who went to private schools or were subjected to civics classes were somewhat more enthusiastic.

• You might recall some chat last month about a looming referendum on the introduction of a Hare-Clark style electoral system in the Canadian province of British Columbia. Well, that’s happening on Tuesday.

• Possum’s favourite word, “spiffy”, doesn’t do justice to his infographic electoral demographic displays.

• If it’s analysis of major party submissions for the federal redistribution in New South Wales you’re after, Ben Raue of The Tally Room is unequivocally your man.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

596 comments on “Budget minus three days”

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  4. Yes that is the question, isn’t it? I don’t suppose we could trigger a large enough explosion on the sunward side of the Earth to deflect its orbit without causing unacceptable damage. Perhaps we could build a giant retrorocket so that we could steer the Earth like a spaceship? Probably not. What we need is something like a moon or asteroid to pass close enough to the Earth for its gravity to alter the Earth’s orbit. I’m not sure how we could engineer that.

  5. Psephos there are 4 issues with moving the Earth`s orbit.

    Getting enough fuel for powering the enormous rockets that would be needed.

    Attaching said rockets to the earth (with the rockets beyond the atmosphere) (they would have to be attached at the poles due to the Earth`s rotation).

    Avoiding large space debris.

    Other environmental consequences.

  6. Chaps, I think you are ‘out there’ already with that new orbit idea. However, here is what Obama’s science advisor is thinking. His idea could be more feasible, if Copenhagen is a loser for the planet as expected.
    Anyway, I favour a solution that doesn’t move us any closer to the Man From Planet X:

    [Shoot pollution particles into atmosphere to cool Earth, says Obama adviser]

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/5128109/Shoot-pollution-particles-into-atmosphere-to-cool-Earth-says-Obama-adviser.html

  8. [His idea could be more feasible, if Copenhagen is a loser for the planet as expected.]

    I really don’t this is expected by any of the countries who are going to be the bigger players – more a perception by idiotic journalists.

  10. Has anyone else heard of putting solar panels in space? Gregg Easterbrook of Brookings is a big fan. Sounds a little ridiculous to me.

  12. Obama’s advisor is John Holdren. Also the article says,
    [The American Meteorological Society is crafting a policy statement on geoengineering that says “it is prudent to consider geoengineering’s potential, to understand its limits and to avoid rash deployment.”]

    It seems to be saying that if things heat up as now seems inevitable given the world-wide failure of leadership, we’ll all have an unpleasant rash. 😯

  20. Just trust us GG. We’ve never let you down before…

    Does anyone OWN these planets or the moon? What happens when a module lands on Mars? Does it change anything? What about the moon?

  21. I believe there is a treaty which says that outer space can’t be claimed by any country. We’ve landed several things on Mars and it doesn’t seem to have changed anything. But we haven’t been trying, of course.

  23. The emerging need for planetary re-alignment and/or stratospheric particle deployment can be avoided if we simply adjust our reduction targets to 50% by 2020 and 80% by 2050. Easy.
    And we have now hit upon the “be alarmed, not alert” line governments should start broadcasting loudly and repeatedly to the populace at large:
    It will be necessary to either: a) take a forced move to Mars (pack your own terra); or b) blast the planet a couple of million miles west c) blast a pile of garbage into orbit,
    UNLESS and UNTIL they accept a slightly lower standard of living while we cool the planet.
    I think it should do the trick. Hope someone from Cabinet is reading this.

  24. My ideas for reducing the deficit in the budget.

    Raise taxes on high income earners

    Extent income tax to inheritance, income from trusts, and large gambling wins.

    Extent corporate tax to trusts.

    End dividend imputation (may include a corporate tax cut)

    End the 50% capital gains tax exemption for property held for over a year.

    Higher taxes on alcohol, tobacco and fuel.

    Taxes on sugar (and similar products (e.g. fructose syrup)), salt and fat (oil, butter, margarine, etc).

    End private health insurance rebate and abolish the “Medicare rebate’

    Stop subsidising private schools.

    Stop spending money on wasteful and counter-productive things like freeways.

    This should also give the government enough money to

    Extend Medicare to dentistry

    Properly fund education and hospitals

    Increase welfare payments

    Provide the states with enough money for proper public transport

    Meet the 0.7% foreign aid target

    Undo some of the silly privatisation of the last couple of decades

    Start building solar power plants to replace the coal and gas fired ones.

  26. No 74

    Well, aren’t we all glad you aren’t in government with such an egregious list of imposts on hard working people.

  27. GP, what’s your view of moving the Earth’s orbit as a solution to global warming? Or do you prefer the idea of terraforming Mars so we can all move there?

  29. No 77

    Psephos, my view is that we should eject into outer space any person who make such obscene suggestions.

  32. [All this science, I don’t understand.]
    LOL! Why am I not surprised!
    [Well, aren’t we all glad you aren’t in government with such an egregious list of imposts on hard working people.]
    CHECK IT OUT GP! TWENTY FIVE BILLION DOLLARS of MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS!
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25451295-601,00.html

    You’re government is delivering for you now!
    [* A $7.2 billion north-south inland rail freight corridor from Melbourne to Brisbane;

    * A $1.2 billion extension to Sydney’s F3 freeway to Branxton, providing about 40km of dual divided carriageway between the F3 Freeway at Seahampton and the New England Highway west of Branxton;

    * Completion of the long-awaited upgrade to the Pacific Highway between Sydney and Brisbane, estimated to cost $6.6billion, to improve long-haul traffic between the two capital cities;

    * A $3.5 billion east-west metro rail tunnel in Melbourne, designed to relieve pressure on the City Loop.

    There is also speculation that the Queensland Government will get seed funding for its multi-billion-dollar urban rail project, which is aimed at upgrading inner-city capacity. ]
    This is EXACTLY the sort of things you think should be built using government borrowing. There is absolutely nothing left for you to complain about now.

  36. Shows On,

    I compensate by having a well developed BS detector.

    And mate, it’s on afterburners whenever you’re on the board.

  37. [I compensate by having a well developed BS detector.]
    I have BOTH an understanding of science and a BS detector, and I think it is BS that you are too lazy to understand science.

  38. There is just no way this could be true. It has to be a reporting change but it still looks very grim for della Bosca.

    [THE number of preventable deaths in NSW hospitals has risen sharply, with the majority of cases due to clinical care mistakes.

    The latest Clinical Excellence Commission report reveals there were 183 preventable deaths in NSW public hospitals between January and June 2008, representing more than the total number of deaths across the preceding 24 months.

    “The Rees Labor government admitted to 120 deaths in the two years 2006 and 2007, we now have 183 deaths in just six months,” opposition health spokeswoman Jillian Skinner said in a statement.

    “The incompetent Rees Labor government was either lying about the previous years’ figures or there has been a massive increase in the number of deaths in our hospitals

    “These figures show … (the) government is failing patients.”]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25453336-5005962,00.html

  39. Shows On,

    Self praise is no praise. Being the Queen of cut and paste does not impress anyone of your scientific knowledge. You are nothing more than a dourly derivative dunce.

  41. Very surprised to read an editorial in today’s AUSTRALIAN in support of a Rudd Government initiative(Private Health Insurance). Turnball and Dutton must have choked on their Corn Flakes LOL

  42. [Self praise is no prai]
    LOL! OK, so I guess this means you are taking back your assertion that you have a bullshit detection detector? It must be faulty anyway considering the quality of your posts.
    [You are nothing more than a dourly derivative dunce.]
    OOOH!!! Alliteration! That HURTS SO MUCH!

    To make you feel better, here is a cut and paste of your post:
    [Self praise is no praise. Being the Queen of cut and paste does not impress anyone of your scientific knowledge. You are nothing more than a dourly derivative dunce.]
    And another one:
    [Self praise is no praise. Being the Queen of cut and paste does not impress anyone of your scientific knowledge. You are nothing more than a dourly derivative dunce.]

  44. Shows On,

    You seem a little flustered. Maybe you need to do a scientific study on your frail sensitivities.

  45. [You know what is boring?
    2 posters continuously having a shot at each other.]
    I apologise. I have no idea what his problem is. He doesn’t seem to like the way I post, if that is the case he should just ignore them.

  47. The Leader of the Republican Party is leaving the GOP. How much lower can they go?

    [Is Samuel “Joe the Plumber” Wurzelbacher really quitting the Republican Party? That’s what a new Time article on the current sad state of the GOP says.

    “Samuel Wurzelbacher, better known as Joe the Plumber, tells TIME he’s so outraged by GOP overspending, he’s quitting the party — and he’s the bull’s-eye of its target audience,” the article says.]

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/joe-the-plumber—-quitting-the-gop.php

  48. Did I hear somebody mentioned the People’s Daily? This IS from the People’s Daily.

    [Who is concocting ‘Taiwan Question’? by Li Hongmei People’s Daily Online. May 06, 2009

    Playing the same old tune, Saito, head of the Taipei Office of Japan’s Interchange Association, again hyped the theory of ‘undecided situation of Taiwan’ just in time to chime with the Japanese PM Taro Aso’s recent trip to China. His statement also echoed the unbridled clamor made lately by the Right Wing Forces within Japan preaching ‘Taiwanese are not Chinese.’ The despicable acts with unscrupulous interference into China’s internal affairs will be definitely deemed as a political poor show, in defiance of international law and fairness, by the Chinese people across the Taiwan Straits.

    As is well-known, Taiwan has been an inseparable part of China’s territory since antiquity. Both the 1943 Cairo Declaration and the 1945 Potsdam Proclamation have reaffirmed in unequivocal terms China’s sovereignty over Taiwan as a matter of international law. This is an objective reality that cannot be changed by anybody. To date, more than 160 countries in the world have diplomatic relations with China, with the general recognition of the one-China principle, and Taiwan being a part of China.

    In recent days, a thaw has emerged in the long-frayed relations across Taiwan Straits, and with this, the momentum looms to ease tension and settle many of the thorny problems afflicting both sides. At this critical juncture, some people with ulterior motives again started to sort out the stale topics which should have discarded long ago in an attempt to incite trouble across the Straits. They are actually concocting an insidious poison harming both the regional stability and interests of the entire Asia. ]

    http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90002/96417/6652080.html

    In the USA’s Bible belt: “who lost China?”. In Japan’s Geisha belt: “Who lost Taiwan?”, while the Kimono and Toyota are falling apart.

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