Newspoll: 55-45

The latest Newspoll confirms the trend of recent Morgan and Essential Research results in showing an easing in Labor’s lead, from 58-42 in the previous two fortnightly surveys to 55-45. Labor’s primary vote has dropped five points to 42 per cent, its lowest level since November, but the Coalition’s is up only one point to 38 per cent. The Greens’ account for two points of the difference, up from 9 to 11 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has dropped a further point to a new low of 36 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is down three points to 64 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 19 per cent.

UPDATE: Graphic here (how long have they been waiting to use that photo of Kevin Rudd?). Interesting supplementary question on what the government should have done with the stimulus package money – 78 per cent say they would have preferred it be spent on infrastructure, which is the kind of opinion poll response political operatives hesitate to believe. Opinion is divided on whether promised tax cuts should go ahead as planned.

Other news:

• Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead nudging downwards for the fourth week in a row. It’s now at 57-43, compared with 63-37 on April 6. The survey also reveals slightly more optimism on the economy than was recorded in mid-March, mixed messages on what should be done in the budget, a persistence of illiberal attitudes towards asylum seekers, and a widespread belief that Pacific nations such as Fiji should be “left to sort out their own affairs”.

• An anonymous business figure tells Glenn Milne of The Australian that “major business donors” have a hit list of 14 MPs who must make way for new blood if the Liberal Party is to get their donations. These are Bronwyn Bishop (Mackellar) and Philip Ruddock (Berowra), Kevin Andrews (Menzies), Alby Schultz (Hume), Joanna Gash (Gilmore), Judi Moylan (Pearce), Wilson Tuckey (O’Connor), Margaret May (McPherson), Andrew Laming (Bowman), Michael Johnson (Ryan) and Alex Somlyay (Fairfax), along with Nationals John Forrest (Mallee) and Bruce Scott (Maranoa) plus one lone Senator, former Howard numbers man Bill Heffernan. Some of these point to the Coalition’s undoubted surplus of MPs past their use-by date, as noted in detail recently by Peter van Onselen in The Australian. Others on the list fall well below van Onselen’s nominated cut-off point of 60 years of age, the most striking examples being Johnson (39) and Laming (42). Milne’s source also reckons Barnaby Joyce is “divisive and not a team player or a regional centre vote winner” – the latter judgement at least seems a very big call. While Milne describes the list as “non-factional”, Liberal sources are evidently putting it to Andrew Bolt that responsibility for the article ultimately lies with party treasurer and Turnbull ally Michael Yabsley, who scores an indirect compliment from Milne’s source.

• Submissions for the redistribution of New South Wales federal elections have been published, compelling the major parties to suggest which electorate they think should be eliminated. The Liberals have excitingly decided the axe should be wielded on their own turf, suggesting Kay Hull’s seat of Riverina and Alby Schultz’s seat of Hume be merged into a new seat called Bradman. Schultz has reacted by calling for a return to rural malapportionment. Ben Raue notes that the Liberals want territory transferred from Wentworth to Sydney, which would at once make Malcolm Turnbull safer while leaving Tanya Plibersek more vulnerable to the Greens. Labor’s submission calls for the abolition of Pat Farmer’s seat of Macarthur further to the north, where the Liberals propose to strengthen their position by adding territory from Hume.

• Swoon over the new-look Crikey. Now no longer featuring my goofy 2004 vintage mug on the front page, praise the Lord.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,434 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

Comments Page 5 of 29
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  3. [How do the greenies explain the green organisations support for the latest proposed ETS?]

    The green movement has always had a weak critique of capitalism, and in particular neoliberalism. As market economics became the dominant paradigm of social policy, this weakness has meant that the green movement has found it difficult to critique policies that rely on market forces to meet social (or environmental in this case) goals.

  4. [Our view is that climate change is too important an issue to play those sorts of political games with.]

    😆 Nice amount of gall there…

    Yea I saw that pseh, just wondering whither AiC and why.

  5. 191,

    [
    So the “window” for a DD closes on 11 August 2010.
    ]

    I’ll mark this on my calendar as a red letter date, thanks for the info 😀

  6. Thanks for the Q&A transcript, Psephos.

    I particularly like this:

    [Our view is that climate change is too important an issue to play those sorts of political games with.]

    The Opposition is clearly playing games in the Senate and only a double dissolution election will end them.

    I see that earlier you highlight that the latest the government could call an early election is August next year, and iterate my earlier comment that to wait until after Copenhagen would be irresponsible.

    Regardless of whether or not the government needs to go to Denmark with legislation in hand, if this legislation fails then certainly the government will go to Denmark unable to make any commitments and purport to be able to enact them. The evidence of this Bill will show that the government’s hands have been tied by the Greens and Coalition.

    If Australia is to have any negotiating credibility whatsoever, assuming that the Opposition continues to obstruct the legislation, there must be an election this year. The Bill should be fast-tracked in order to allow Australia to pass its verdict on Green lunacy and Opposition obstruction.

  7. As a hypothetical, just imagine we don’t have the legislation in place in time for Copenhagen. At Copenhagen, there will be some sort of agreement anywhere between 5% and 25% for developed countries most probably 10% or 15% by 2020.

    Can you imagine Rudd and Wong coming back and trying to get Turnbull or Fielding (plus Green/X) to pass an ETS with a 15% target? Absolutely no hope. They are bleating about the lowest of all lowbar targets of 5% at the moment. They will meltdown at 15%.

    This has to pass before Copenhagen. (Even if it’s a dud)

  8. Off topic but a tip for saving money in these tough times, hope that’s Ok william 🙂
    I used a shopper docket from Coles to have my car seviced at the local Toyota dealer where I usually go anyway and it cost $129 whereas if I’d paid the normal cost for a 60k service it would have been $245. So I saved myself $116 🙂 not bad aye bludgers?

  9. [The Bill should be fast-tracked in order to allow Australia to pass its verdict on Green lunacy and Opposition obstruction.]

    Bule, are you OK?

    😉

  16. The talk of the government going down this path to produce a DD completely blows the idea that they really wanted to take stronger action all along out of the water.

    If they’re willing to go to a DD over it then why wouldn’t they propose a stronger ETS, which would be blocked, and then pass it after the election.

  18. Oz, perhaps the Government isn’t too concerned to have a ‘stronger’ ETS. Perhaps they want what they’re proposing?

    If the Greens want something stronger then they can try and win government and implement it.

  19. 217

    We’ve been through this. All the modelling demonstrates the opposite of what you’re saying so hush and play with your toy trucks.

  20. [Perhaps they want what they’re proposing?]

    DUH, this is precisely my point.

    However, everytime I raise it, the Labor diehards attempt to convince me that Labor really does want to do more but it’s the Senate’s fault they can’t.

  24. Oz #216

    This is a complete misreading of tactics and of a likely electorate response to such tactics. To have pursued the course you propose would have enabled the Opposition to argue that they would not have obstructed moderate legislation, but that the Government was more interested in playing politics to gain a double dissolution trigger. As it is, the Government can effectively, and rightly, highlight that no matter what the compromise the Opposition would obstruct it.

    Alternatively, the Opposition can do the right thing and jump on board. They just better have their replacement for Turnbull ready if they do.

  25. GP when the ALP primary can fall 5% but Turnbull’s satisfaction doesn’t move you know he ain’t ever going to lead them to victory.

  26. GP, what makes you think an opposition slaughter will help? They have learnt nothing from Howard being thrown out, including in his own seat

    And re: the budget- very very smart of the govt to do further projections to show the recovery from recession and deficit

  27. Ok Oz, you’ve ‘proven’ that the Government wants what it is proposing (mindblowing I know)… now what? What’s your point?

  28. [As it is, the Government can effectively, and rightly, highlight that no matter what the compromise the Opposition would obstruct it.]

    I agree. I understand Oz’s frustration; yesterday’s announcmeent was all about politics: Lenore Taylor shows how it was worked out:
    [About six weeks ago, the Prime Minister and Climate Change Minister Penny Wong agreed it was time to implement Plan B and began secret negotiations with the BCA, the AI Group and a coalition of union, welfare and green groups that included the Australian Conservation Foundation and The Climate Institute think tank.

    ACF chief executive Don Henry sounded out individual chief executives about the proposal to put 25 per cent targets back on the table – a decision accepted by the business groups only under a long and detailed set of conditions negotiated with Wong at some length. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25430246-30538,00.html

  30. GP surely the opposition should slaughter themselves first? I’m sure you were in full agreement with the names on the dead wood list?

  31. I heard Robb on RN this morning. His position is quite blunt. No ETS of any description unless there is an international agreement. He actually used the fatal phrase “wait and see,” despite the damage it did Bishop in relation to the GFC. He’s a powerful figure in the Liberal Party. I can’t see Turnbull persuading the current Shadow Cabinet to support Rudd’s CPRS. The Liberals are the party of “wait and see,” and they will wear that into the next election campaign.

  32. Most of the dead wood have safe seats, as is the nature of dead wood in all parties. If the Libs have a heavy defeat the casualties won’t be Tuckey, Bronwyn Bishop and Ruddock. It will be Dutton, Keenan, Pyne and maybe Turnbull himself.

  33. No 231

    Psephos, the Government’s own approach is not that different. It only guarantees 5%, with higher targets only invoked in the case of a strong global agreement.

    My peeve is that Turnbull automatically opposed what was a considerable concession by the Government. The business groups support it, so I really can’t see the point in Turnbull’s opposition.

  34. [As it is, the Government can effectively, and rightly, highlight that no matter what the compromise the Opposition would obstruct it.]

    So you STILL believe that Labor really does want more but is scared of the Liberals response? What a joke.

    The sheer number of political games that are being played on this issue by Labor and Liberal for their own gain is making my head spin.

    I’m going with Kohler. Labor wants a DD, it knew that the Coalition was a complete shambles on the issue and wouldn’t vote for anything and that The Greens wouldn’t support a browning down, so they did exactly that and it’s most likely going to work out for them. Labor supporters wetting themselves with excitement.

  36. The Leader of the Republican Party, Joe the Plumber, shows why he deserved everything he copped from the Dems during the election.

    [I’ve had some friends that are actually homosexual. And, I mean, they know where I stand, and they know that I wouldn’t have them anywhere near my children. But at the same time, they’re people, and they’re going to do their thing.]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/04/joe-the-plumber-queer-mea_n_196116.html

  37. [My peeve is that Turnbull automatically opposed what was a considerable concession by the Government. The business groups support it, so I really can’t see the point in Turnbull’s opposition]

    Agreed – he should have quickly assumed the role of co-author of the plan and made it sound like the Govt had finally come round to the opposition’s way of thinking. By opposing it straight out, he is once again left in a dumb political positions.

    But then it doesn’t help when Truss came out even before Turnbull and said the ETS should be scraped.

    Great team work.

  39. More from Joe:
    [I feel more important to just encourage people to get involved, one way or another. If I can inspire some leaders, that would be great]

    well he inspires many to want to vomit, so I guess that’s mission accomplished then.

  41. One issue touched on earlier today was a half Senate election only in the second half of 09. Given that it is the Libs that would lose out from a half election this time around, because they will be giving up a number of their Senators from the landslide in 2004. According to Adam’s analysis earlier, Labor can pick up 3-5 seats from the Libs and FF. The Greens will probably have the balance of power. However a cocktail of Nats, Mr X and disaffected Libs may also be able to do the balancing act as well.

    The new Senators won’t sit until July 10. Which would make the interim buggery. However, given that the HOR does not have to go to an election before Feb 2011 then there could be a period of Labor ascendancy.

    Any thoughts anyone?

  42. Oz

    Certainly I believe that many people in Labor would like to achieve more, and hope to do so over the course of future governments.

    My point is simply that if Labor is to make the case that an early election is warranted because of Opposition obstruction and Green economic lunacy on this issue, it is the electorate, not the Greens or the Opposition, that the government must convince of this necessity. By giving the Opposition an opportunity to hang themselves, an opportunity grasped with gusto by Turnbull, they have added yet further evidence that a clear indication of support for the Government from the electorate is required.

  43. [Labor spineless on emissions
    The Howard-Costello Government faced a more difficult political task to get the GST through the Senate, but displayed much greater backbone than Labor has over the CPRS. That was because Howard and Costello truly believed in the rightness of what they were doing.]
    Absolute crap. Two words – Meg Lees and we know what that did for her and her party.

  44. Oz

    You can’t continue to claim that Labor is proposing what it really wants in terms of 2020 targets. Does it really want 5-15% targets or does it really want 25% targets for Australia? The government has to take some account of what is best in terms of short term politics in order to get us closer to the long term goals.

  45. Constitution 101

    Half Senate election can only occur in the year preceding the expiry of a half-Senate term. The next half-Senate expiry is the 30th of June 2011. No half-Senate election before the 30th of June 2010.

  46. Bernard Keane is quite upset. Don’t know when he’s been this fired up.

    Some choice examples –

    [Get that? So, you spend the money on a solar panel or suchlike, and THEN if you want to make really sure you have made a difference, you can spend more money contributing to buying permits. Or you can skip the panel bit and just go straight to making a pledge. Or, if you’re a multinational mining company, you can just bitch and moan while being handed hundreds of millions of dollars in free permits.]

    [I don’t think I’ve ever seen a policy with such a high ratio of needless complexity to real-world consequence.]

    [In short, the Government has tried to fix all the presentational problems of its scheme, making it even less effective, more complicated and entirely at odds with its rhetoric right up until a couple of days ago.]

    Article worth reading.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/05/05/rudds-ets-backflip-is-all-about-controlling-the-debate/

  47. [Indeed, Oz, what a welcome opportunity to focus on the common enemy!]

    Bule, i think i need a Bex and a good lie down. are we on the same side now?

  48. GG you misread my earlier post. There can’t be a half-Senate before July 2010 (two thousand TEN), and the new Senators won’t take their seats until July 2011 (ELEVEN). The only election options Rudd has this year are (a) a Reps only election, which he can hold any time he likes, and (b) a DD, which he can only do with he has a trigger.

  49. Just to repeat a question I asked earlier – How do the greenies explain the green organisations support for the latest proposed ETS?

  50. Just to repeat a question I asked earlier – How do the greenies explain the green organisations support for the latest proposed ETS?

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