Newspoll: 55-45

The latest Newspoll confirms the trend of recent Morgan and Essential Research results in showing an easing in Labor’s lead, from 58-42 in the previous two fortnightly surveys to 55-45. Labor’s primary vote has dropped five points to 42 per cent, its lowest level since November, but the Coalition’s is up only one point to 38 per cent. The Greens’ account for two points of the difference, up from 9 to 11 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has dropped a further point to a new low of 36 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is down three points to 64 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 19 per cent.

UPDATE: Graphic here (how long have they been waiting to use that photo of Kevin Rudd?). Interesting supplementary question on what the government should have done with the stimulus package money – 78 per cent say they would have preferred it be spent on infrastructure, which is the kind of opinion poll response political operatives hesitate to believe. Opinion is divided on whether promised tax cuts should go ahead as planned.

Other news:

• Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead nudging downwards for the fourth week in a row. It’s now at 57-43, compared with 63-37 on April 6. The survey also reveals slightly more optimism on the economy than was recorded in mid-March, mixed messages on what should be done in the budget, a persistence of illiberal attitudes towards asylum seekers, and a widespread belief that Pacific nations such as Fiji should be “left to sort out their own affairs”.

• An anonymous business figure tells Glenn Milne of The Australian that “major business donors” have a hit list of 14 MPs who must make way for new blood if the Liberal Party is to get their donations. These are Bronwyn Bishop (Mackellar) and Philip Ruddock (Berowra), Kevin Andrews (Menzies), Alby Schultz (Hume), Joanna Gash (Gilmore), Judi Moylan (Pearce), Wilson Tuckey (O’Connor), Margaret May (McPherson), Andrew Laming (Bowman), Michael Johnson (Ryan) and Alex Somlyay (Fairfax), along with Nationals John Forrest (Mallee) and Bruce Scott (Maranoa) plus one lone Senator, former Howard numbers man Bill Heffernan. Some of these point to the Coalition’s undoubted surplus of MPs past their use-by date, as noted in detail recently by Peter van Onselen in The Australian. Others on the list fall well below van Onselen’s nominated cut-off point of 60 years of age, the most striking examples being Johnson (39) and Laming (42). Milne’s source also reckons Barnaby Joyce is “divisive and not a team player or a regional centre vote winner” – the latter judgement at least seems a very big call. While Milne describes the list as “non-factional”, Liberal sources are evidently putting it to Andrew Bolt that responsibility for the article ultimately lies with party treasurer and Turnbull ally Michael Yabsley, who scores an indirect compliment from Milne’s source.

• Submissions for the redistribution of New South Wales federal elections have been published, compelling the major parties to suggest which electorate they think should be eliminated. The Liberals have excitingly decided the axe should be wielded on their own turf, suggesting Kay Hull’s seat of Riverina and Alby Schultz’s seat of Hume be merged into a new seat called Bradman. Schultz has reacted by calling for a return to rural malapportionment. Ben Raue notes that the Liberals want territory transferred from Wentworth to Sydney, which would at once make Malcolm Turnbull safer while leaving Tanya Plibersek more vulnerable to the Greens. Labor’s submission calls for the abolition of Pat Farmer’s seat of Macarthur further to the north, where the Liberals propose to strengthen their position by adding territory from Hume.

• Swoon over the new-look Crikey. Now no longer featuring my goofy 2004 vintage mug on the front page, praise the Lord.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,434 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. I reckon its time to revisit an article which puts Penny Wong’s role and the problems she faces into perspective.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23781070-5013404,00.html

    “Penny Wong in clash with carbon emitters……One of these meetings in Melbourne last Tuesday completely broke down, with Senator Wong reportedly furious at the way she was being treated by the eight business leaders present …. International Power …., Alumina Limited ………Exxon Mobil, CSR and BHP Billiton. ”

    There is more, its worth a read.

    As a side note I wonder what the executive salaries of the 8 men present would be worth? Somewhere in the vicinity of $50 plus million a year?

  5. I agree with the Greens that the proposed pledge fund for individual action
    is nothing to get excited about as a step forward in the CPRS revision,

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/05/2561307.htm?section=justin

    (It was my understanding that the ability for individuals to make big contributions
    by sitting on permits was there all along)

    However, Milne seems to be now raising some new criticism that the scheme does not encourage energy efficiency.

  7. Ahh, I remember when we all waited with itchy trigger fingers to post about RBA interest rate announcements

  9. Yes, the Italian job continues:

    [Noemi Letizia … the 18-year-old who has been quoted as saying she calls Berlusconi papi or Daddy. So what do Italians make of the public disintegration of their ageing prime minister’s marriage?

    Silvio Berlusconi’s gaffes and his public to-and-fro with his wife mirror the Italian way of life, says one Italian commentator.

    But a leading member of Australia’s Italian community insists Berlusconi is one of a kind, even among Italians.

    The episode of the Berlusconi soap opera has seen him demanding his wife, Veronica Lario, apologise publicly for insinuating he was being unfaithful.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/an-everyday-italian-soap-the-bold-and-the-berlusconis-20090505-atgt.html

    What a boring PM Kevin Rudd is and Who needs “Home and Away” when you can have La Dolce Vita. Arriverdeci Veronica.

  10. Re 115,

    [
    Oz
    Posted Tuesday, May 5, 2009 at 1:04 pm | Permalink
    WA, NT and QLD had no reason to go early. None of them were first-time governments either.

    Two very big differences.
    ]

    you are probably right on all of these. that having been said, I can see the logic on going early for QLD and WA. Not having a “valid” reason to go early but yet understanding why they did so. QLD; suspect Bligh wanted it out of the way before the economy could get worse and Carpenter chucking all of his chips onto the table in 2-up with what should have been a winning hand (in his mind, mine and most others) but the other side changed players too late for him to do anything about it …..

  12. The Vic Treasurer, John Lenders, is in the upper house. They pass a resolution admitting him to the Assembly chamber to deliver the budget speech. I didn’t realise that was possible.

  13. I think to be fair and accurate you need to compare apples with apples. Compare DD’s with past DD’s not state and territory elections.

  19. Swannie’s live: “The temporary deficits will be for longer period”. Oh dear, how many generations to pay off? My great great great great great children?

  24. Don’t worry Finnigans, Howard and Costello paid off a whole bunch of debt and it didn’t even touch the sides. In fact we got tax cuts as well. Paying off debt is not tha much of a drama – many of us doi it everyday in our mortgages.

  25. Don’t forget that that debt is providing much need infrastructure that will benefit your grandchildren and beyond.

  29. Many of us live in debt for much of our lives. Some live in debt all their lives. The secret is keeping it manageable.

  30. The real question is why these projects were not completed when we had the cash to do so.

    We know the answer here but why arn’t the msm doing their job and asking such questions ?

  33. oh oh, there has been an alien invasion and all the poll bludgers have been taken over by lazy liberal creatures so they are not blogging anymore

  34. centaur009

    We’re all conserving CO2 so Australia can meet Rudd’s 5% ETS cut without anyone losing their job. It’s our best chance now. 😀

  37. The Libs sent Kevin Andrews who looked and sounded like an undertaker to try to sell Workchoice. The rest is history.

    Now they send Andrew Robb who is an undertaker to try to sell their something. The rest will be history.

    When will they ever learn.

  38. You can be certain of one thing, if Rudd is given the DD trigger he will use it whenever the next election is held.

  41. He can’t have a DD within six months of the date the term of the Reps would expire, which is on 11 February 2011. So the “window” for a DD closes on 11 August 2010.

  45. Turnbull is quoted as follows in nearly every ABC report on ETS today:
    “When we say this is flawed, these are not little details. These are huge omissions and failures in the scheme”.

    Does anyone ever ask him what, in his opinion, the flaws are?

  47. Your brain uses a lot of energy in thinking, and that causes your body to produce more CO2. Thus it is better for the earth for us to be mindlessly posting comments on pollbludger rather thinking about anything.

  48. [So the “window” for a DD closes on 11 August 2010.]

    So Saturday 7 Aug 2010 is the last possible date for a DD? Or must it only be called before 11/7/10?

  50. JOURNALIST: You’re also loading the gun, aren’t you, for a double dissolution election in the Senate – knocks it back twice and you can’t get your bill through – you can then go to the Governor-General and say we need this legislation, let’s have an election on it.

    WONG: Well the person who has his finger on the trigger on that is Mr Turnbull. And let’s remember Mr Turnbull took leadership off Mr Nelson by campaigning on climate change and now he’s in the top job he’s converted to the biggest sceptic of all because he wants to save his job and that’s a surprisingly weak position for Malcolm Turnbull to take. He’s refusing to take on the sceptics in his own party room because he’s worried about his leadership position. Our view is that climate change is too important an issue to play those sorts of political games with.

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