Morgan: 57-43

The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face survey of 883 voters shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 60.5-39.5 to 57-43. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 48.5 per cent, the Coalition’s is up substantially from 34.5 per cent to 39 per cent, and the Greens are down two to 6 per cent. Between Morgan, Newspoll and Essential Research, there is now significant evidence that some of the gloss has come off the extraordinary spike Labor enjoyed from its response to the global financial crisis.

Elsewhere:

• The Geelong Advertiser reports on the federal Liberal preselection for Corangamite. Prospective nominees: former Kennett government minister Ian Smith, “considering his position”; Graham Harris, head of the party’s Corangamite electorate council; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay; “Moriac district resident” Rod Nockles; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer Stewart McArthur who lost the seat in 2007.

• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports that “pressure is mounting inside the Liberal Party to dump its candidate for the state seat of Newland, Trish Draper”. Draper was federal member for Makin from 1996 to 2007, when she forestalled what seemed to be very likely defeat by retiring. Draper is seen to have been damaged by reports an ex-boyfriend has been identified as a suspect in a murder investigation, which is currently the subject of a defamation case. A Liberal source quoted by Kenny says Right faction powerbroker Senator Nick Minchin has told Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith to dump her.

• The ABC reports “speculation” that Premier David Bartlett is “planning to visit Tasmania’s Governor on Monday and send Tasmania to the polls as early as April 18”, resulting from the government’s failure to table long-promised legislation to enact fixed four-year terms. Bartlett denies this, and he would have to be pretty silly to ignore the still-accumulating evidence that unnecessary early elections are a bad idea.

• The ABC reports that Labor is courting Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb as a possible state election candidate for Bass.

• An interim report by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters recommends an end to trials of electronic voting for the vision-impaired and overseas defence personnel on the grounds it is too expensive. The report said the 850 votes cast electronically in 2007 cost $2597 each, compared with $8.36 for each non-electronic vote. A dissenting report by Bob Brown argues the government should pursue electronic voting to assist disadvantaged voters, and investigate its use in the Australian Capital Territory and overseas.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published papers on women parliamentarians in Australia and the possibility of dedicated indigenous representation, a la the Maori seats in New Zealand.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

556 comments on “Morgan: 57-43”

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  3. [So what did Mason do in the Senate that caused a few comments earlier. ]

    BH, after everything was wound up in the Senate this afternoon and the Motion to adjourn had been moved, Mason claimed a right to a 20 minutes indulgence speech.

    Virtually everyone had left except the President and the two Senate clerks and he cut loose. It was one of the funniest sights I have ever seen by a politician. I hope someone has the foresight to put it on u-tube as it is almost compulsory viewing.

    I bet those people who had to wait until he finished when everyone else was either on their way home or at the pub, would like to bury him.

  4. Yes BH @ 144. It’s not really about how much money Rudd is giving you. The stimulus is designed to boost demand in the economy, and it needs to be done quickly. And, no, not by tax cuts or by cutting payroll tax.

    The higher income earners should realise that if we boost demand and soften the impact of a recession, more jobs will be secure, property prices may be maintained and the stock market will eventually recover more quickly.

  5. [Still, I think he is a bit naive to think that talkback callers are worth using in Parliament. The shockjocks only put to air the calls they want – and of course they would use the lot who say they will get rid of employees.]

    Yeah, it’s a bit like people calling online polls credible

  7. Re 154,

    [
    The higher income earners should realise that if we boost demand and soften the impact of a recession, more jobs will be secure, property prices may be maintained and the stock market will eventually recover more quickly.
    ]

    That same demographic, if they haven’t figured it out already, after today ought to also realize that the Coaltion gravy train they enjoyed under JH is dead in its tracks.

  8. Borg has a good chance of winning Bligh is contemptuous by going to the polls early i hope she is thrown out.

    Plus the LNP winning will show the other States that a united party helps in getting back to power.

    You’d have to say you’d rather be the Borg right now than Anna she probably wont get any sleep but the Borg will be snug in his rug tonight.

  9. vera, mug punters don’t influence betting prices. 😉

    Btw, commiserations Souths 8 – Parra 14

    I’m backing Penrith, Roosters and Manly this weekend.

  12. Bizarre the smh still doens’t have the IR story. The only link it does have is underneath a story from Swan about “Jobs forecast too low” and the link is titled: IR Bill Hitch.

    Gotta love up to date news sites

  14. [Borg has a good chance of winning Bligh is contemptuous by going to the polls early i hope she is thrown out.

    Plus the LNP winning will show the other States that a united party helps in getting back to power.

    You’d have to say you’d rather be the Borg right now than Anna she probably wont get any sleep but the Borg will be snug in his rug tonight.]

    Glen,

    As I told you during the WA Elevtion, don’t count your chickens just yet – you may find that the result won’t be known for at least a week, and you you might find the leaders doing a deal with an independent or the Greens.

  16. [Come on I need to know if ABC will be broadcasting the count to make my dinner plans.]

    My post on that is in moderation, but basically outside of Queensland the only source of coverage is ABC online – unless Newsradio decide to cover it.

  17. The Age on the other han does have the story:
    WorkChoices will disappear on January 1 after the Senate passed Labor’s Fair Work bill following two days of wrangling between the Government and crossbench senators.
    …
    The Opposition had dealt themselves out of the negotiations by sticking to its definition of 25 full-time staff while independent senator Nick Xenophon kept to his preference for 20.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/parliament-approves-fair-work-bill-20090320-94aq.html

  18. GG the same thing happened in WA and look what happened Colin Barnett won.

    Also GG look what happened when Newspoll predicted 50-50 on election day 2004 and Howie won big time!

    The Borg has been consistently ahead and is more likely to pick up the undecideds on election day.

    Queenslanders like a bit of balance they’ve got Kev as PM but they dont need Labor running the State.

  20. Thanks Scorpio – if it comes on youtube let me know. Have dialup so it takes ages to download but sounds like it is worth a laugh. I am still in awe of Julia G’s nerve – no wonder the Oppn. are spiteful about her.

    You are right Centre – kid eventually realised he was a mug for complaining. I think he’d been listening to the mob he works with.

  21. Thanks Centre sad about the Bunnies but we who support them aren’t greedy, we are used to settling for 2 or 3 wins a year 🙂 How could you bet on the Roosters after Sts and Souths have given them floggings scoring 50+ points against them in the past few weeks?

  22. [Borg has a good chance of winning Bligh is contemptuous by going to the polls early i hope she is thrown out.]

    Glen, obviously you kinda like Diog, you were also never told when you were young that pain would lead to pleasure.

    Your side has been beaten to pulp fiction today by St. Gillard, and yet you come here like Oliver and asking: “can i have more, Sir?”.

  23. Glen,

    You asked a question, I gave an answer.

    All the analysis I’ve seen says that the LNP needs 51+ to win. If , as reported the late swing is to Labor then Bligh will win.

  24. OK, we’ve got St Kevin, St Gillard and I think we ought to have St Burke. He has been doing Malcopop beautifully in QT lately.

  25. Finns

    Saw one of your symbols (SMH)today in an ad for telstra.

    Speaking of the SMH
    great letter today

    “its great to see the liberal party standing up for values it believes in-
    No child should live without cheap alcohol in 2009”

    🙂

  30. [My post on that is in moderation, but basically outside of Queensland the only source of coverage is ABC online – unless Newsradio decide to cover it.]

    Dammit.

  32. [Come on I need to know if ABC will be broadcasting the count to make my dinner plans.]

    Oz, it will be on ABC in Qld at least starting at 6.30 with Red Kerry and Antony keeping track of proceedings.

    They both think that it will be late in the night before a trend will be evident.

  33. Thanks, Scorpio but I don’t live in QLD and I was wondering if ABC would broadcast the coverage on ABC2 as they did with the WA election.

    According to Frank, the answer is no.

  35. [Thanks, Scorpio but I don’t live in QLD and I was wondering if ABC would broadcast the coverage on ABC2 ]

    Surely the ABC will stream it???

  36. Sadly no coverage on ABC2 tomorrow night, but it’ll be on Newsradio.
    Thank goodness for the internet, you can have your own private election night, without the pundits.

  38. What! Obama is talking to the terrorists -aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh help – we are all doomed!

  39. Oz, if you’ve the capacity to blog away from home (via your mobile for example) [?] wouldn’t you be able to catch William’s election live feed and keep up with it that way?

  40. This is how sad and irresponsible the Republicans are. You turn down a gift which you can spend on your people, to improve their lives and, help the economy in the process.

    Consevative politicians have become are a selfish and vile breed over the last 8 years.

    [The biggest single chunk of stimulus money that Palin is turning down is $160 million for education. There’s also $17 million in Department of Labor funds (vocational rehabilitation services, unemployment services, etc.), about $9 million for Health and Social Services and about $7 million for Public Safety.]

  41. Glen: a bad week for your lot, you now represent the party of Work Choices and binge drinkers! So you’re now relying on that hick Springborg to salvage the sinking ship known as conservatism?

  42. Good idea juliem, but I was going to have some people over to watch the results on TV. Not quite the same thing as huddling around a computer or a mobile.

    Looks like I’ll have to do that then. The last out of state broadcast must not have rated very highly.

  46. If Springborg loses tomorrow, who will be the new opposition leader? Surely they won’t give him another go? He has been in parliament since 1989 from memory.

    Will the Nat part of the Lib-Nats let an old Lib be leader? Or will the parties most likely de-merge?

  47. Turnbull and Senator Mason were trying to give Springborg a leg-up today in Parliament but I think this poster put it in the best light and with the most honesty.

    [Queensland needs the sons of Joh in charge like it needs a hole in the head. The Borg as you call him, I prefer Hayseed, is a well meaning intellectual lightweight who was installed to put a human face on the remnants of a party that was a laughing stock and a cipher for the white-shoe brigade.

    He should never be given the reins of power ]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_borg_spells_danger_danger_for_bligh/

  50. Shows On,

    If history is any guide, they unite and demerge plus remain as a singularly plural force for Conservative politics.

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