Morgan: 57-43

The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face survey of 883 voters shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 60.5-39.5 to 57-43. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 48.5 per cent, the Coalition’s is up substantially from 34.5 per cent to 39 per cent, and the Greens are down two to 6 per cent. Between Morgan, Newspoll and Essential Research, there is now significant evidence that some of the gloss has come off the extraordinary spike Labor enjoyed from its response to the global financial crisis.

Elsewhere:

• The Geelong Advertiser reports on the federal Liberal preselection for Corangamite. Prospective nominees: former Kennett government minister Ian Smith, “considering his position”; Graham Harris, head of the party’s Corangamite electorate council; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay; “Moriac district resident” Rod Nockles; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer Stewart McArthur who lost the seat in 2007.

• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports that “pressure is mounting inside the Liberal Party to dump its candidate for the state seat of Newland, Trish Draper”. Draper was federal member for Makin from 1996 to 2007, when she forestalled what seemed to be very likely defeat by retiring. Draper is seen to have been damaged by reports an ex-boyfriend has been identified as a suspect in a murder investigation, which is currently the subject of a defamation case. A Liberal source quoted by Kenny says Right faction powerbroker Senator Nick Minchin has told Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith to dump her.

• The ABC reports “speculation” that Premier David Bartlett is “planning to visit Tasmania’s Governor on Monday and send Tasmania to the polls as early as April 18”, resulting from the government’s failure to table long-promised legislation to enact fixed four-year terms. Bartlett denies this, and he would have to be pretty silly to ignore the still-accumulating evidence that unnecessary early elections are a bad idea.

• The ABC reports that Labor is courting Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb as a possible state election candidate for Bass.

• An interim report by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters recommends an end to trials of electronic voting for the vision-impaired and overseas defence personnel on the grounds it is too expensive. The report said the 850 votes cast electronically in 2007 cost $2597 each, compared with $8.36 for each non-electronic vote. A dissenting report by Bob Brown argues the government should pursue electronic voting to assist disadvantaged voters, and investigate its use in the Australian Capital Territory and overseas.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published papers on women parliamentarians in Australia and the possibility of dedicated indigenous representation, a la the Maori seats in New Zealand.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

556 comments on “Morgan: 57-43”

Comments Page 5 of 12
1 … 4 5 6 … 12

  2. [Just be sure not to cry tomorrow if you lose another State to the Tories ]
    We’ve got the Fed, that’s the main game.

  5. Glen should be happy it is over. The opposition’s argument that you enhance job security during an economic downturn by making it easier to sack people defies all logic.

  6. [Just be sure not to cry tomorrow if you lose another State to the Tories]
    As with WA Glen it makes no difference to me here in Vic, or to you for that matter.

  8. I think this is a rather extreme call.

    [The mining industry claims the laws will give unions the greatest increase in power for over a century.

    Australian Mines and Metals Association chief Steve Knott described unions’ increased powers as frightening.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/workplace-laws-get-mixed-reaction-20090320-94cf.html

    One gets the idea that the Employer Associations are not exactly happy with the result. Probably even less happy with Turnbull for letting it happen.

  9. I should have included this also.

    [“We have no problem with the Government’s reforms in the area of employee safety nets and unfair dismissal laws, but the array of increased powers being slipped through by the Government under the guise of getting rid of WorkChoices is frightening,” he said.]

  10. If Mr Knott was out arguing that WorkChoices was unfair and didn’t give Unions enough of an influence on I.R., then I would take his judgment on the new system seriously.

  11. Unfortunately, for some Employer Associations the unions having any semblance of power is too much for them. Bugger them I say.

  12. Doesn’t sound like a good idea.

    [ABSA leaked memo has reveals the Australian Bureau of Statistics plans to slash nearly 200 jobs from the agency.

    As recession hits and reliable statistics becoming increasingly important, that is about a 6 per cent cut in staffing.

    The memo, from the bureau’s acting statistician Peter Harper, has sparked concern from leading economists and the Community and Public Sector Union (CPSU), who fear staff cuts will result in junk statistics.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/20/2522356.htm?section=justin

  13. [Probably even less happy with Turnbull for letting it happen.]

    To be fair, Turnbull was irrelevant in the process.

    [The opposition’s argument that you enhance job security during an economic downturn by making it easier to sack people defies all logic.]

    Don’t you realise you only employ people so that you can sack them whenever you want…

    And c’mon – 6 months is a good amount of time to work out if someone is any good. Do you really think there are a plethora of people out there who work really well until the 6 months are up, and then they think – cool now I can slack off? Please.

    A lot of jobs have a 3 month probation period anyway.

  14. [Unfortunately, for some Employer Associations the unions having any semblance of power is too much for them. Bugger them I say.]
    Exactly. They aren’t interested in a fair system, they simply want one with built in advantages for them.

  17. [ABSA leaked memo has reveals the Australian Bureau of Statistics plans to slash nearly 200 jobs from the agency.]
    I hope the Government reverses this. They are employing another 500 at Centrelink to deal with the increased unemployment, and the stimulus package gave Treasury another $50 million to deal with all the additional economic modeling that will be required over the downturn to figure out what parts of the economy are suffering the most.

  18. [The Greens want to restore union power to the level it was before the (British) Winter of Discontent]
    I agree. The system shouldn’t be biased for or against unions. WorkChoices was complex legislation because it was designed to be biased against unions, even though most businesses employ people via union negotiated Enterprise Bargaining Agreements.

  19. I thought The Greens managed to get a few million more in funding for the ABS as part of the stimulus package?

    Labor’s Tim Gartrell taking on Tom Switzer on Lateline!

  25. [Leigh is dressed to kill. After Lateline, it will be Latenight for her.]
    She is trying to get Stephen Long to ask her out. There is great anticipation every Friday, but it doesn’t happen.

    I imagine a lot of Labor MPs, their staffers, and people at the ACTU are having a celebration tonight.

  26. Leigh is really overrated you guys, i am so seriously.

    What happened to Tony Jones does he only do QANDA now?

    BTW if Kerry quit today who would take over 730 Brissenden??

  27. [I imagine a lot of Labor MPs, their staffers, and people at the ACTU are having a celebration tonight.]

    Well deserved too. cheers all. I’m off.

  29. [Leigh is really overrated you guys, i am so seriously.]
    Incorrect.
    [What happened to Tony Jones does he only do QANDA now?]
    He hosts Lateline on Mondays and Tuesdays.
    [BTW if Kerry quit today who would take over 730 Brissenden??]
    No, Leigh Sayles would take over.

  34. [She is trying to get Stephen Long to ask her out. There is great anticipation every Friday, but it doesn’t happen.]

    I reckon they go out every Friday night after Lateline.

  37. Oh comeon you guys seriously, just because it is female and is up late discussing politics doesnt make her hot.

    BTW i bet you she votes ALP 🙁 such a turn off for me lol hahahah

  38. [BTW if Kerry quit today who would take over 730 Brissenden??]

    Sexy Maxy, then nobody can accuse her of being biased because she will be biased!!

  43. [dario,remember glen thinks bishop is hot]

    you mean Bronwyn Bishop? This confirm that for Glen, pain really leads to pleasure.

  48. Was going to bed, and now am, but just gotta say, leave off Leigh Sayles or she’ll do you. Anyone want to volunteer to be vetted by Leigh?

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 5 of 12
1 … 4 5 6 … 12