Newspoll: 56-44

The latest fortnightly Newspoll survey shows Labor’s two-party lead down slightly, from 58-42 to 56-44. Kevin Rudd leads Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister 61 per cent to 21 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE (10/3/09): Reporting a day later than usual, Essential Research also shows a four point narrowing on two-party preferred, from 62-38 to 60-40. Also featured: “political party characteristics”, executive salaries, climate change, maternity leave and “confidence in Australian economy to withstand the current financial crisis”, which Essential Research has been tracking since October last year (and which has taken a big hit in the current survey). You also probably know by now that yesterday’s Newspoll featured a headline-grabbing supplementary question on the Liberal leadership showing Peter Costello favoured by 53 per cent against 40 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,318 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  2. I still think Turnbull should announce that Costello is retiring from parliament at the next election, and thank him for his services to the country and Liberal party.

    He should then make arrangements for a retirement party with 500 guests. And sell tickets on the internet.

  4. Wow! Scott Morrison just admitted the Liberals are against debt under all circumstances. At least he is honest, but economically stupid.

  5. The Whig Party, I’ve still no idea what generation you are apart of, and I’m not terribly convinced that the generational divide being touted by the MSM as a “big” thing is actually true. For example, I get on with many people across the age divide in a management role, or discipline specific supervision, etc. I’m 60, and my youngest staff member is younger than my own children and they (the staff) don’t seem to mind.

  6. Nice idea ShowsOn

    Were I Turnbull I would call a spill, and see what’s what.

    He can’t go on like this, so bugger Costello – why let him swan around on the back bench. It’s time for him to put up or p*ss off.

  7. Shows

    [ still think Turnbull should announce that Costello is retiring from parliament at the next election, and thank him for his services to the country and Liberal party.]

    for those that remember APRIL has alot of significance for costello

    Clue: 2007

  8. Costello is the worst treasurer we have ever had, followed by Paul Keating. These guys got us in this mess currently and the unemployment statistics will get alot worse. No recovery and a slow one until 2011. Need to go back to the past in regards to policy, goverments should be creating jobs- government jobs this will help significantly.

  12. [Were I Turnbull I would call a spill, and see what’s what.]
    Costello wouldn’t run, so then it would go to Hockey, and he would have the same problems with Costello smoking him out.
    [Costello is the worst treasurer we have ever had, followed by Paul Keating. ]
    I think our worst treasurer was John Howard.
    [Or, he could announce he is handing over the leadership immediately. Same result but cheaper.]
    True. But he should just make up “Mr Costello contacted me and said he wanted to become leader of the opposition, I will resign my position and vote for him in a leadership ballot.”

  14. [Costello wouldn’t run, so then it would go to Hockey, and he would have the same problems with Costello smoking him out.]

    I think he would have to or it would be all over for him. Even the Libs wouldn’t be dopey enough to think a guy could turn down the leadership 3 times in 2 years and still be a legit candidate?

    Well ok they could be.

  15. Thanks, Gus, and aren’t you a spondifilorous number? That’s my new DSM categorisation for splendid persons, despite all.

  16. Harry “Snapper” Organs:

    Juanita Coco was born in 1975 and Courtney Compagnino was born in 1977 – it’s pretty self-evident what generation we are a part of

  20. [Nup Gusface, no idea. April 2007?]

    costello’s abortive attempt at a coup-de-tat, that was blown by one p dwarf esq.

    (as detailed on oz politics at the time and led ultimately to me losing my then job and undergoing,ahem, certain pressures)

    Ru and Harry among others, may remember the rather crazy period that was the ‘phoney war’ period before the election being called

  22. Unemployment- now the frustration, stress, pain, anger and who will these people get upset with.
    Another guy on Lateline worth listening to. Amazing. Yep he is correct the 1920’s were all about economic rationalism and the consequences.. The same now, time to go back to socialist type policies and government ownership. If we do not this will go on not for two years but five.

  24. OMG, The Whig Party, you’re even younger than my own off spring. I’ll never be able to talk to you. (I hope your generation understands irony!!).
    Night from me as well, and yes, gus, certainly the phoney war.
    Catch you later.

  25. [Maybe he could get Christopher Pyne to produce a verification note from his wallet]
    Pyne should just FORGE something saying Costello will challenge on July 1st because of taxaction reasons. Just make anything up!

    I can’t fathom that the Liberals are seemingly going to let this go on and on and on until the next election.

    Surely the Liberals are just seeing if Turnbull can get any sort of bounce as we head for a recession ans unemployment continues to rise. If nothing happens then it is on to either Hockey or Costello if he grows a spine.

  27. [The same now, time to go back to socialist type policies and government ownership. ]
    But those policies didn’t work, we had constant boom bust cycles, and after the oil shock, low growth and high inflation.

  32. [Who was blown by P Dwarf? (I really should pay attention or I wouldn’t miss this good gossip) ]

    Dr Carr,
    way, way back, in the mists of time , one p costello started a rumbling re an “back of the letter’ agreement
    one P dwarf esq,as troubador, decided,rather prematurely as it turned out, to spruik the charms of aforesaid .

    Now one j howard , a rather suspicious chap, got wind of the ructions, and ‘grannyslapped’ the Vic ( and incidentally NSW ) Hq’s

    Peace was restored, ala churchill and stalin, until the unthinkable happened and the world turned to “pot”

    What we are still privvy too is the ongoing “payback” between aforesaid states

    Personally the ‘ructions’ delivered at least 20+ votes among my immediate out-laws

    Costello has definite unresolved tension, that only He can resolve.

  33. Shows on – no major recession from 1945 to the mid 70s and these policies did not work.
    Since the mid 70’s we have had 74, 82, 91 and now 08 and in between Asian crisis, Dot com bust. Stagflation as i will say it again was caused primarily due to an oil shock which came out of the middle east due to a war in 1973. So 28 years of hardly any economic major shocks and a period of low inflation and low unemployment. Growth which was egalitarian compared to todays growth which helps mainly the rich. Of which no doubt you have done very out of… It was a period where people could go from one job to another, today people have to go to countless interviews, see private agencies and have many many interviews… and this was going on even when we had a boom.
    Unemployment is not 5.2 percent it is 10 percent due to hidden unemployment and governments measurement of it which by the way was changed by the Coalition in 1996 and will Labor change it… No. Just have to work for two hours in a fortnight and you are not counted as unemployed.

  34. [What we are still privvy too is the ongoing “payback” between aforesaid states]
    So you don’t believe the claim that Costello currently has the numbers, but just doesn’t want to use them?

  35. So what is wrong with this dirty word called socialism which is all about allowing all people the opportunity to benefit and not just a minority. Oh please, please do not mention this dirty word. Meanwhile chief executives live nicely on their big pays whilst the unemployed struggle to survive what next…

  36. [So you don’t believe the claim that Costello currently has the numbers, but just doesn’t want to use them?
    Not at all.

    P costello has a clear majority of support. Except, and i’m presuming here, he may be thinking of the Maxim

    “once bitten, twice shy”

  39. So far as I know Costello has always had the numbers. The only reason either Nelson or Turnbull became leader was because Costello had made himself unavailable. He only has to say “I’m available” and they’ll fall at his feet.

  43. Please explain where it has not worked… Cuba no and the same with many countries in Eastern Europe they are and were communist states. And communism i do not believe in.

  45. [Socialism is a nice idea, but it doesn’t work.]

    I respectfully disagree.

    The problem is making the people ‘socialist’
    😉

  46. [Shows on – no major recession from 1945 to the mid 70s and these policies did not work.]
    This chart only goes back to March, 1959, but as is plain to see, the slope is steeper at the end than at the start.

    GDP has increased at a faster rate over the last 19 years, than in the first 40 years of the chart.

    The reason we had solid growth after the war was because 1) a lot of men returned and went to work 2) the mining industry was rapidly expanded.

  48. Greensborough no doubt another who has done very well out of capitalism…
    If their is a better system than either ideology which does allow minorities to control the majority please explain.

  50. Socialism, properly defined, is a system under which the means of production are socially owned, in other words in which private property in productive enterprise is abolished. No democratic electorate has ever voted for this, and it’s unlikely that one ever would. The only way in which private property has ever been abolished has been by force (Soviet union, China, Cuba etc). This has always resulted in dictatorship, corruptiom poverty and eventual counter-revolution, one way or another. “Communism” is just the theory of socialism applied in practice, in the only way it can be applied. “Democratic socialism” is a myth – it’s never existed and never will.

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