Not exactly hot off the presses with this one, but Friday’s poll from Roy Morgan (who seem to have returned to their weekly polling habits of old) has Labor’s two-party lead at 59.5-40.5 compared with 60-40 the previous week. The primary vote movements are bigger than you would expect from this: Labor is down 2.5 per cent to 49 per cent, and the Coalition is up 1 per cent to 36.5 per cent. The slack is taken up by “independent/others”, up from 3.5 per cent to 6 per cent. Perhaps South Australians are telling survey takers they’ll vote for Nick Xenophon. Elsewhere:
• Speculation continues to mount that former WA Health Minister and Attorney-General Jim McGinty (left) will shortly be calling it a day, initiating a by-election in Fremantle to coincide with the state’s May 16 daylight saving referendum. On ABC television news, Peter Kennedy reported that rumoured preselection contender Peter Tagliaferri (right) met with McGinty and ALP state secretary Simon Mead to “discuss the possible vacancy”. However, Alan Carpenter is offering point-blank denials to speculation he might also vacate his seat of Willagee, which puts the prospect of a dangerous preselection stoush between Tagliaferri and LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly back on the agenda. Steve Grant of the Fremantle Herald reports:
Alan Carpenter says he will remain in state parliament till the next election. He ruled out the possibility of a by-election for his safe Labor seat of Willagee … He shrugged off speculation that he and Fremantle MP Jim McGinty were contemplating mid-term retirement to make way for new Labor blood, “you might not believe me, but often I’m the last person to hear about these things”. It seems Jandakot Liberal MP Joe Francis could be more tuned in to Labor machinations than the former premier, becoming the third person to tell the Herald that LHMWU secretary Dave Kelly was being groomed to take over a Labor seat.
• What’s more, Robert Taylor of The West Australian has mused on the possibility of star Gallop/Carpenter government minister Alannah MacTiernan moving to federal politics by taking on Don Randall in Canning, where redistribution has shaved the Liberal margin from 5.6 per cent to 4.3 per cent.
• Staying in WA, the Liberal Party is having an interesting time dealing with jockeying ahead of preselection for the safe southern suburbs seat of Tangney. Sitting member Dennis Jensen (left) lost the preselection vote ahead of the last election to Matt Brown, former chief-of-staff to Defence Minister Robert Hill, but the result was overturned by prime ministerial fiat. As Robert Taylor puts it, “this time there’s no John Howard and Dr Jensen looks decidedly shaky”. Against this backdrop, local Liberal branches have been inundated with membership applications from “Muslim men”, who are believed – certainly by the Brown camp – to be enthusiasts for the incumbent. A compromise reached at the state executive saw admission granted to half the applicants, who can apparently thank Julie Bishop for arguing that “many of her east coast colleagues with big Muslim populations in their electorates were nervous about the outcome”. Taylor says a Brown supporter told him “the new members were associated with ‘strident anti-Israel statements’ from the Australian National Imams Council”.
• With independent MP Rory McEwen to call it a day, the Liberals would be pencilling in his seat of Mount Gambier as a soft target at next year’s state election. However, the Border Watch reports Liberal candidate Steve Perryman, the mayor of Mount Gambier, might face an independent challenge from Don Pegler, the mayor of Grant District Council, who has perhaps been inspired by Geoff Brock’s boilover in Frome. Grant covers the electorate’s extensive rural areas outside of the City of Mount Gambier, although the latter accounts for three times as many voters.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews offers a colourful and detailed account of the gruelling Liberal preselection jockeying in Kooyong.
• Landeryou also notes conflicting reports on the prospect of a Right-backed preselection challenge by Noel McCoy against Phillip Ruddock in Berowra.
• Andrew Leigh and Mark McLeish have published a paper at Australian Policy Online which asks a most timely question: Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Using data from 191 state elections, they find a positive correlation between low unemployment and success for the incumbent, “with each additional percentage point of unemployment (or each percentage point increase over the cycle) reducing the incumbent’s re-election probability by 3-5 percentage points”. Furthermore, “what matters most is not the performance of the state economy relative to the national economy, but the state economy itself”. That being so, it seems voters “systematically commit attribution errors – giving state leaders too much blame when their economy is in recession, and too much credit when it is booming”.
• The Parliamentary Library has published a note on the redistribution of WA’s federal electorates.
Just one problem Bree, Costello is unelectable. Do you want someone so weak as our PM?. Seriously!
That’s why I said if Turnbull was smart. He finally gets rid of Cossie, and has a shot at a better chance of winning in 2013.
Also, Turnbull is in a weaker electoral position. Costello holds his seat by 7.1% and Turnbull holds his seat by a very poor 3.9%. If King was still the member for Wentworth, he would be holding the seat by a margin of 10% or more.
Bree, even the rusted Libs on here tell you to shut your trap. I’d suggest to take their advice.
[Prize Liberal seat taking in Bondi, Randwick and Vaucluse, though not as blue-ribbon as is usually supposed, having been won by margins of between 5.5 and 8 per cent since 1993.]
http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2004nsw.htm#wentworth
I think I’ll start up the “Pollbludgers for Costello: Vote for Him So He Can Do Whatever He Wants” campaign. 😛
Bree,
With the polls showing Labor at around 60% 2PP, then neither Costello nor Turnbull will be returned. Voters revenge or nature purging? You decide.
too right Diog, let’s keep Aus politics interesting, let’s
“Keep Cossie in Canberra!”
Diogs you have aged since the last time I saw you. I can safely inform the women on this site that I am better looking. 😀
Centre
I’ve changed my gravatar back to to the old Hermit With Lamp one. No-one seemed to care less who my last one was, even though I said he was one of my heroes. Pearls before swine is the phrase that comes to mind. 😉
I believe that those people that have been caught with a fixed interest rate, are those who believed Howard & Costello that interest rates are always higher under an ALP Government. All they could see was 17%. So it is Howard’s and Costello’s fault that these people have been caught out.
The Calition and their supporters can’t hae it both ways.
Oh Joe, you really didn’t say that did you?
“Dear Mr M…
Thank you for your letter of 12 August, 2007 concerning the global finance system.
I have noted your views. I however disagree vehemently with your analysis that the world is facing a collapse of the financial markets. The last few days have indicated that the financial markets, with the support of the central banking institutions, are able to meet the demands that have been placed on them.
Yours sincerely, Joe Hockey”
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2009/02/joe-hockey-where-angels-fear-to-tread.html
Did anyone hear Tim Blair on Insiders say that Conservatives very rarely form Governments by adopting more moderate policies?
Well, isn’t that rubbish? Howard had to abandon his opposition to Medicare, Superannuation and Asian immigration before he was electable.
I would suggest that all parties have to moderate their views before being elected, just as Rudd moderated some of Labor’s views on I.R.(support for secret ballots) at the last election.
Look at the UK conservatives. Who is Tim Blair and what has he been smoking?
Diogenes,
I thought it was the actor Henry Szeps who played the free loading manipulative dentist son in Mother and Son.
Strange hero.
bob1234 @ 112
The Conservatives in the UK are going to win next year’s general election by huge margin. I predict:
Conservative 434 seats
Labour 165 seats
Actually it was Giovanni Falcone, the anti-mafia magistrate who was assassinated in 1992. Very soon after his friend Paolo Borsellino met the same fate. Actually, I’m currently wearing a T-shirt I made with the photo of the sheets in the Wiki article.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giovanni_Falcone
Bree, nobody listens to your predictions as you have been shot down in flames by both sides time and time again for your largesse of ignorance.
Diogenes,
Henry might get the gig if they ever do a feature movie on him.
GG
Chazz Palminteri played his part in a movie about Falcone, although Henri Szeps does look uncannily like him. Haven’t seen the movie but the book “Excellent Cadavers” was brilliant.
bob1234, so you think Gordon Brown will win next year?
A federal politician I spoke to today said this week’s newspoll will show an increased lead to Labor …
Diogenes, if those complex, highly detailed avatars people use were capable of being distinguished in sufficient size and resolution by middle aged eyes, perhaps there would be more comment and banter over them. As it is, I can barely discern the predominant colour …
And, ladies and gentlemen, I can now reveal to you what next week’s MSM anti-Rudd scandal was meant to be.
There was a cover photograph of Rudd on the last issue of The Monthly magazine. A mighty fine photo it is too, Rudd is all statesman like, regal even.
The Murdoch vultures couldn’t resist. They worked out such a magnificent portrait couldn’t be produced for less than $4000, and immediately smelt the obscene (using GP terminology) and wasteful expenditure of Taxpayers’ Money.
The presses were held, the hysteria and hyperbole were whipped into a literary frenzy and then … and then someone, as an after thought, contacted the Monthly magazine to find out who released the photo to them. That should have embroiled one other ministerial office into the pastiche, at least.
But the answer they got deflated the balloon immediately. The bloody Monthly had commissioned and paid for the photo themselves! Treacherous Bastards!
So now the story is a one liner in the back pages of Perth’s Sunday Times, revealing only that a $4000 photo of Kevin Rudd appeared on the front cover of The Monthly.
One wonders why they bothered …
The big difference between Brown and Rudd is that UK Labour has been in power for 11 years, so they have to take the blame for everything, and most people have now forgotten why they voted the Tories out. In Cameron they have a bland smiling non-entity as leader, not a polariser like their last three leaders. Also English voters have never liked Scots. Brown should have taken the chance on a snap poll when he succeeded Blair, or again late last year when his popularity surged as a “strong leader.” I think he has now missed his chance. The UK economy is going to crash very badly and he will get blamed, regardless of the merits. Note that NONE of these factors apply in Australia.
I can’t wait for Prime Minister David Cameron. The UK needs a fresh start and needs to move away from the stench of Tony Blair.
Cameron is an upper-class twit and will be a very poor PM. They should have gone with Boris IMHO.
The stench of Tony Blair arises only out of his proximity to John Howard and George Bush Snr. when they lay in bed together.
Jnr.
Diogenes,
Falcone was one very brave dude. I recently saw a documentary on his role as chief magistrate in Sicily. It is very clear the whole system was totally corrupted by the Mafia. Falcone had a few spectacular wins. But, I fear that he was more a speed hump for organised crime than a slayer.
I would compare David Cameron with NZ’s John Key. A true statesman that listens to all sides of the debate. They are like Ronald Reagan, popular conservatives.
Bree, what planet do you come from again?
86 Inner Westie – the hansard of that clip os good reading!
[Mr KEATING —Don’t be too noisy over there. You are so macho! Twice you have had a chance to take the opposition leadership. The first time you rang your friend next to you and offered it to him. This time you sat overseas while John got it from Hawks Nest. When I told our caucus last year that you were a low altitude flier I was right, wasn’t I?
Mr Atkinson —Mr Speaker, I raise a point of order—
Mr KEATING —Underneath that barrel chest of yours is a caraway seed for a ticker.]
I especially like how when PJK mentions the Hawks Nest, Howard rasies his eyebrows and slightly nods his head – he knew Keating had Costello pegged as well.
[A federal politician I spoke to today said this week’s newspoll will show an increased lead to Labor …]
Not the biggest of calls!
Adam in Canberra, tell me three things that you think Gordon Brown can win the election on?
Grog: True – Not really … but a pleasant thought on a lazy Sunday afternoon.
Bree, I didn’t say I thought Brown will win. I think he will probably lose. His best chance of winning is to focus on the fact that Cameron is an upper-class lightweight with no policies other than smiling a lot and agreeing with everyone. I do think that Brown’s responses to the GFC have been correct, but as I said, when you’ve been in power for 11 years it’s hard to evade responsibility for a crash.
Planet Bullingdon then Bree ?
The Coalition’s problems in opposition started when Costello didn’t stand up and take the leadership in November 2007.
Had he done so, he wouldn’t have been subjected to the instability that both Nelson and Turnbull have experienced. He would have been given a clear run to the next election, as Kim Beazley was from 1996 to 1998 and, in fact, to 2001.
Having not taken the position, he should either have left with Downer or if he really wanted a bit of a break, made it clear he was not re-nominating for Higgins for 2010 from the outset.
All that’s happening now in the Coalition, is instability and infighting is filling the vacuum that has emerged as a result of having no leader with authority. Nelson didn’t have it and Turnbull doesn’t have it.
Neslon wasn’t up to it, and Turnbull is trying far too hard to make an impression.
Instead of sounding thoughtful and measured, he sounds shrill and negative, because he feels under pressure from within the party to make “big hits” against the government at every opportunity.
Unfortunately for Turnbull, the electoral cycle doesn’t work that way. He is in a six match test series but his party is expecting him to play like he’s in a twenty-twenty match. He, like all opposition leaders, needs time to build his innings. He needs at least one clear term and providing he performed adequately, two. But the way he’s going, he will burn himself and the Coalition for several terms.
I think the thing that killed Brown was his handling of the Royal Bank of Scotland fiasco. It will cost Labour all lot of seats. How big a majority do you think Cameron will get if he wins next year. Will it beat Blair’s one from 1997? How many safe red seats will turn to blue seats? I can see the UK election map turning 80% blue next year!
Nice one Grog. “Underneath that barrel chest of yours is a caraway seed for a ticker” is one for the glory box …
Browns problem is that he is wedded to the city.
Well Bree you can gloat about the UK if it gives you a compensatory thrill for the fact that your party here is in an utterly hopeless mess. UK Labour has had 11 years in power, their longest stint in office ever, and has seen off four Tory leaders, so it’s not really much to gloat about.
The situation at the Royal Bank of Scotland has become so bad, that customers are withdrawing their money from this bank, because they fear they won’t get it back soon enough! The bank is not lending much anymore either. Brown doesn’t stand a chance of keeping this bank afloat!
Be gentle Adam. This is political prozac …
Aristotle,
I agree that Costello was the logical choice to take on the Liberal Leadership post election. But, he was too wary to be caught up in the “it’s Buggins turn” hysteria. Clearly, Costello has been on a sabbatical to re acquaint himself with his family and electorate. He wrote a book and allegedly fielded external opportunities (which did not rise to his expectations). He is also well aware that new Governments are rarely rolled after one term.
It’s clear that Costello is now a player again. The Liberal Party has not moved very far and Costello is almost remote from the fray. He’ll let Turnbull or who ever take the next election fall and be there ready, willing and able to take the leadership and the PM job when the latter is likely to fall in to his lap.
Love the title of this article 🙂
[Turnbull in a china shop]
[As he contemplates his leadership of a party in utter chaos this weekend, there is more – much more – bad news for Turnbull.
National MPs, senators and officials in the know are seething over Turnbull’s handling of Julie Bishop’s unceremonious departure last weekend as shadow treasurer. Bishop was close to a number of senior Nationals, including Truss and Joyce, in a way Turnbull is not.
“Malcolm just doesn’t have the trust of the Nationals yet, and he won’t if he conducts himself like that. And without that goodwill the Nats are less inclined to bend to his will on anything – anything at all – especially in the Senate. They will just tell him to get stuffed in the Senate,” the Coalition figure says.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/turnbull-in-a-china-shop-20090221-8e73.html?page=1
I really could not care less about the Royal Bank of Scotland. My only comment is that the reason Australian banks are not in the same mess is that KEVIN RUDD stepped in promptly with his bank guarantee, which your party at first supported and now opposes.
Adam in Canberra @ 145
This reason why our banks are not in this mess is because of PRUDENTIAL REGULATION. In the 1997 budget, Treasurer Peter Costello created the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA). It was basically designed to over see and regulate the actions of Australian banks going into foreign markets. Had it not been for APRA, our banks would be in the same mess as the UK banks. Even Julia Gillard, when she was in Davos, was saying that our banks were quote “the best in the world”. Julia Gillard effectively praised Peter Costello’s APRA.
Here is the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gde0eN52hnc
Bree, the Governor of the Reserve Bank made the same point as Adam on Friday. What do you know that Adam and the reserve Bank Governor missed?
[I believe that the extraordinary actions of governments and central banks in that period in supporting key institutions, supplying huge quantities of liquidity and offering guarantees on various obligations of banks helped to stabilise what could have been a catastrophic loss of confidence in the global financial system. All of that remains a work in progress and sentiment in markets remains fragile; nonetheless, since October we have seen term spreads in money markets decline—back to still elevated levels, but certainly down from the peaks; we have seen long-term markets reopen to banks, largely on the back of the government guarantees; and public confidence in the security of the banking system has been maintained and the exceptional volatility in a lot of financial prices has abated somewhat.]
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/economics/rba2008/Hearings/Transcript1.pdf
Bree way back at 5:
(1) Don Randall? Popular? You’re dreaming. If there’s a decent sized swing like there was over east last time, he’s gone. That seat was actually Labor not so long ago.
(2) MacTiernan’s probably the most popular of Carpenter’s former ministers (competent, not tainted by Burke)… she’s a potential premier in four years time. If Labor get rid of the nightwatchman within the next year, bury Burke in a deep hole like Gallop did, and put MacTiernan and a few smart new-ish people (Papalia, Wyatt etc) in senior positions, they’ll have a very good shot in 2013. Basically they need to pick up Morley (a near-certainty) and one other (Riverton, Wanneroo, Southern River and Jandakot are low-hanging fruit), and not lose any they currently have. It’s not that hard to imagine.
As for your other post about Turnbull’s margin… here’s something to ponder. There were four seats in the country last election which swung to the Liberals; Swan and Cowan in WA (Lib gains), Franklin in Tasmania (Harry Quick’s old seat), and… Wentworth. He’ll hold his seat next time too.
GG
Falcone was responsible for the Maxi-Trials which did quite a lot of damage to the Mafia, but it was such a hydra-like organisation that it could always recover from losing a few heads. What Falcone really achieved was through his death (and Borsellino’s) a disgust amongst Italians about the Mafia.
Rome sent in the army to perform the actions of the police in Sicily which freed up the police to just hunting down the Mafia, who started to give themselves up and become “pentitti” (informers). The Mafia went into a huge decline after that, from which it has not fully recovered.
The Mafia also became a kinder and gentler criminal organisation under the leadership of Bernardo Provenzano, whose nickname The Butcher or The Tractor changed with his management style to The Accountant.
I don’t dispute that APRA, which was set up with Labor’s support, has been an effective regulator. But other countries have bank regulators as well, and their banks have gone bad. There have been a number of reasons why our banks have retained public confidence, and the main one has been the Rudd guarantee. That I presume is why Turnbull initially supported it, before he decided to play the cheap opportunist and oppose everything Rudd does, in the hope that Australia will have a deep recession and he can inherit the ruins.