Morgan: 59.5-40.5

Not exactly hot off the presses with this one, but Friday’s poll from Roy Morgan (who seem to have returned to their weekly polling habits of old) has Labor’s two-party lead at 59.5-40.5 compared with 60-40 the previous week. The primary vote movements are bigger than you would expect from this: Labor is down 2.5 per cent to 49 per cent, and the Coalition is up 1 per cent to 36.5 per cent. The slack is taken up by “independent/others”, up from 3.5 per cent to 6 per cent. Perhaps South Australians are telling survey takers they’ll vote for Nick Xenophon. Elsewhere:

• Speculation continues to mount that former WA Health Minister and Attorney-General Jim McGinty (left) will shortly be calling it a day, initiating a by-election in Fremantle to coincide with the state’s May 16 daylight saving referendum. On ABC television news, Peter Kennedy reported that rumoured preselection contender Peter Tagliaferri (right) met with McGinty and ALP state secretary Simon Mead to “discuss the possible vacancy”. However, Alan Carpenter is offering point-blank denials to speculation he might also vacate his seat of Willagee, which puts the prospect of a dangerous preselection stoush between Tagliaferri and LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly back on the agenda. Steve Grant of the Fremantle Herald reports:

Alan Carpenter says he will remain in state parliament till the next election. He ruled out the possibility of a by-election for his safe Labor seat of Willagee … He shrugged off speculation that he and Fremantle MP Jim McGinty were contemplating mid-term retirement to make way for new Labor blood, “you might not believe me, but often I’m the last person to hear about these things”. It seems Jandakot Liberal MP Joe Francis could be more tuned in to Labor machinations than the former premier, becoming the third person to tell the Herald that LHMWU secretary Dave Kelly was being groomed to take over a Labor seat.

• What’s more, Robert Taylor of The West Australian has mused on the possibility of star Gallop/Carpenter government minister Alannah MacTiernan moving to federal politics by taking on Don Randall in Canning, where redistribution has shaved the Liberal margin from 5.6 per cent to 4.3 per cent.

• Staying in WA, the Liberal Party is having an interesting time dealing with jockeying ahead of preselection for the safe southern suburbs seat of Tangney. Sitting member Dennis Jensen (left) lost the preselection vote ahead of the last election to Matt Brown, former chief-of-staff to Defence Minister Robert Hill, but the result was overturned by prime ministerial fiat. As Robert Taylor puts it, “this time there’s no John Howard and Dr Jensen looks decidedly shaky”. Against this backdrop, local Liberal branches have been inundated with membership applications from “Muslim men”, who are believed – certainly by the Brown camp – to be enthusiasts for the incumbent. A compromise reached at the state executive saw admission granted to half the applicants, who can apparently thank Julie Bishop for arguing that “many of her east coast colleagues with big Muslim populations in their electorates were nervous about the outcome”. Taylor says a Brown supporter told him “the new members were associated with ‘strident anti-Israel statements’ from the Australian National Imams Council”.

• With independent MP Rory McEwen to call it a day, the Liberals would be pencilling in his seat of Mount Gambier as a soft target at next year’s state election. However, the Border Watch reports Liberal candidate Steve Perryman, the mayor of Mount Gambier, might face an independent challenge from Don Pegler, the mayor of Grant District Council, who has perhaps been inspired by Geoff Brock’s boilover in Frome. Grant covers the electorate’s extensive rural areas outside of the City of Mount Gambier, although the latter accounts for three times as many voters.

Andrew Landeryou at VexNews offers a colourful and detailed account of the gruelling Liberal preselection jockeying in Kooyong.

• Landeryou also notes conflicting reports on the prospect of a Right-backed preselection challenge by Noel McCoy against Phillip Ruddock in Berowra.

• Andrew Leigh and Mark McLeish have published a paper at Australian Policy Online which asks a most timely question: Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Using data from 191 state elections, they find a positive correlation between low unemployment and success for the incumbent, “with each additional percentage point of unemployment (or each percentage point increase over the cycle) reducing the incumbent’s re-election probability by 3-5 percentage points”. Furthermore, “what matters most is not the performance of the state economy relative to the national economy, but the state economy itself”. That being so, it seems voters “systematically commit attribution errors – giving state leaders too much blame when their economy is in recession, and too much credit when it is booming”.

• The Parliamentary Library has published a note on the redistribution of WA’s federal electorates.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

632 comments on “Morgan: 59.5-40.5”

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  1. Why are people on fixed loans complaining, don’t these people realize they are actually paying the loan off faster by paying the higher rate!

  2. Judith 43

    If anything Swan let Hockey off lightly. The real problem with mortgage debt in Australia was the absurd price growth in housing from 2001 to 2004. So people are committed to loans too large for their income. Remember it occurred BEFORE the boom in mining royalties from 2005 to 2007. We didn’t have sub-prime loans here but we still got a far too great boom in house prices. Why? The reason was Howard and Costello’s policies. The main reason was some very stupid changes to the rules for capital gains and tax write-offs on investment housing passed by that economic genius, Peter Costello, around the year 2000. They made investment housing a no-loss gamble until eventually everyone lost. So people gambled on houses while the share market tanked. Then when shares recovered the house market lost steam.

    Remember Howard’s claim “I haven’t heard anyone complaining about the increase in the value of their home”. The value didn’t increase, just the price because of bad policy. Swan should remind people of that rubbish statement, because it sheets home responsibility for something we now realise was very stupid. In fact, some economists did warn about it back then, but got ignored. I wrote to some Labor sources asking them to raise it in 2004, but sadly they didn’t. I would love to know what advice was issued to government by Treasury or the RBA on this back then. They must have known the risks Howard and Costello were running.

    One thing our economic leaders need to have slapped out of them is the idea that rising house prices are a good thing. They aren’t. It just ties up a lot of our capital in speculative investment that doesn’t geneate income. We need houses, but they need to be at prices 20 somethings can afford to buy.

  3. mb

    Fixed rate loans means the interest rate is fixed. If it was at a higher rate then you are locked into paying a lager share of your repaments as interest, and less off the capital. Hence it takes longer.

  4. Lord D 49

    Thanks that explains a lot. I take GBs point that there is only so high teh 2PP can go, but I wouldn’t mind betting Newspoll will show a further rise for Labor, even if its only 1-2%.

  5. [#8 – But I think its clear that Costello is only interested in becoming leader if it makes him Prime Minister. ]

    Yes, It can be done. It’s usually by the magicians at your local RSL clubs.

  6. Here is an example of where those ignorant of economcis (eg ratings agencies like Standard and Pores) can do harm in a recession. They have downgraded Qld debt from AAA to AA+
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/qld-loses-aaa-credit-rating-after-budget-blowout/2009/02/21/1234633113299.html

    I find this ridiculous. Qld faces a drop in revenue from the coal price decline and will now have a debt. But much of their spending is on capital infrastructure to support growth. Overall they are miles ahead of somewhere like NSW, which still gets AAA. One of the other consequences peope shoudl remember from the sub prime crisis is that it exposed that rating agencies have a very poor record at accurately assessing risk.

  7. Socrates, all the rise in the cost of houses did was to make my rates and taxes a whole lot dearer and on a WW’s pension thats not good, i wouldnt mind my house value going back to pre Howard days if the costs of maintaining it would go back as well, at least i dont have to worry about interest rates ive got a defence service loan, the DSL used to be enough to buy a house now it wouldnt even cover the deposit on one after Howard’s surge in housing prices.

  8. 60 Judith Barnes – I actually think it’s unfair. What it does highlight is the standard of political journalism we have here. I’m yet to be convinced Joe has the goods but this is crap.

  9. Geez the bar is getting set pretty low now on what costitutes a stumble.

    Came home, put my tape of Insiders on; saw Blair, saw Hockey was getting the interview… gave the FF button a good workout.

  10. I hope Swan doesn’t mention the “stumble” in QT this week. If Hockey actually did think it was $42m, well yes, it would be worth pointing it out… but geez, how pathetic is journalism in this country if what he said is now considered news… bring on the footy season, so the Sunday papers have enough to fill their pages.

  11. Nice quote by Swan:
    [“I haven’t got a lot of time to be concerned with all the divisions and embitterment in the Liberal party, we’ve got a lot on our plate at the moment,” he said.

    “I think I can agree with Dr Hewson on one point, and that is that Peter Costello’s record, his economic record and his work ethic, is nowhere near as good as Peter Costello thinks it is.” ]
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25090062-2702,00.html

  12. I think Joe’s comments are a bit of a beatup but they could have got him for far worse on Insiders.

    He was trying to turn Glen Steven’s positive comments re the stimulus package into a negative for Labor and a plus for the Lib’s prattling on about the marathon we will be running. BB was right – Cassidy, as usual, is mostly useless in his interviewing.

    I disagree with you Adam re Turnbull and the republic. I was furious after the event because Turnbull seemed not to have the negotiation skills he needed with the other mob to come to a compromise.

    Of course, the Convention came to a consensus. It was the one Howard worked for from the beginning. Turnbull fell for it.

    After the event Turnbull was one mean, nasty little fella and there was barely a whimper out of him. He turned up his toes and apart from his comment re Howard breaking our hearts or some other such garbage, he went into a sulk.

    He doesn’t have the personality to lead – it’s a case of do what I say, or else. That won’t get him far. Just look at the division in the ranks. Nelson was doing a better job at keeping the guys in line.

  13. Poor old ABC Barry Cassidy types, they have Joe on to promote what a great treasurer he’d be compared to that dunce Swanny of the high fixed term mortgage rates, then (going by what I’ve read here) they have clips of their hero Howie supposedly demolishing Rudd and his essay, then their LIb panel say what a wonderful week their mob has had and give the immpession that Rudd is gone, he may as well resign now and hand over the PM ship to that great leader of men Cossie.
    BUT WHAT DO THE PAPERS SAY! and from the OO at that 🙂
    [Hockey stumbles over size of stimulus
    THE opposition’s new Treasury spokesman, Joe Hockey, has stumbled over a key economic fact in his first week in the job.]
    rotflmao An hour of building up Joe and the Libs all for no avail 😛

  14. BH, that is, with all due respect, a load of nonsense. You are allowing your current view of Turnbull to colour your retrospective view of him at the time of the referendum. What should he have done differently? And what exactly was he supposed to do after the referendum? Call for an insurrection? Your comments suggest to me that you followed Cleary’s line in supporting the monarchy because you didn’t get your way at the convention. Is that the case? If so, the loss of the referendum was much more your fault than Turnbull’s.

  15. Rudd has just said that the Vic bush fire is “the worst of nature”. i have to take issue here with the Ruddster. nature is nature is nature. it is neither good or bad. It just is. it is us, humans that place value judgement on things.

  16. I’m not sure anyone should be complaining about Costello’s work ethic. Clearly he attempting to minimise his personal carbon footprint.

  17. Vera – how did you get that beaut face (tongue out) on comment 68.

    I’d like to put it on an email to my IT ‘knowitall’ son when I stuff up and have to ask how to fix this darn contraption. He replies ‘Oh Mother – not again”

    Next time I want to send that face. lol

  18. No Adam – I am a deadset Republican and have been since I was a kid. Could never work out why we had a Queen on the other side of the world and I am off very, very old Celtic stock (Hamilton) – the mob dates back to 1100s. I must have been the black sheep.

    But my grudge against Turnbull goes right back to that Referendum. It was standing out a mile that the vote wouldn’t get up with the ‘why change what is working’ line. We have mostly been a conservative mob.

    Turnbull landed in my area (on business) shortly after – the people who met him here came away with a decided view about him and it wasn’t favourable I can tell you.

    I kept thinking how on earth did you get it so wrong in the direction. We all hate pollies making too many decisions. Surely a compromise in a directly elected Head of State could have been negotiated. We all knew Howard would never let the monarchy go so surely cleverer negotiators than Turnbull should have engaged with Cleary and the rest of his rabble.

    My current view of Turnbull is based on what I personally encountered some time ago. I don’t think I can trust the bloke.

    One of my biggest regrets is that I won’t see a Republic in my lifetime. I expect the Queen to go on like her mother did. Must add I have a tremendous amount of respect for the lady tho.

    As a kid I longed to have the dollar. $sd was always a damn pain in the neck to a non-mathematical brain like mine. At least I got that one.

  19. BH: That may not work the way you think it will. Turning the colon+UpperCaseP into a pretty graphic is done by the blog software on this site.

    You could download the file directly and insert it into your email:

    Alternatively you son will get the meaning without the graphic.

    As an aside, I have just found that if you right-click on one of these images and select properties you will not only get the link (as above) but also an “Alternate Text” property which tells you the character sequence used to create the smiley.

  20. Thanks Vera – son will be surprised in the way I want him to be. He is a gem really but I’ll enjoy giving him heaps.

    Adam – I was a bit garbled above but really Cleary was a dunderhead. However he had a point about people wanting to feel they were assisting in making the choice. If that had not been the case the ‘yes’ vote would have romped it in.

    I do not believe that we should put the names up for the vote but some independent body could consult and put forward names for election. That is no different to the pollies putting forward names, surely.

  21. I voted Yes Adam and will until my dying day (hopefully I will get the chance).

    If it eventually means the pollies get the say OK – I was OK with that before but I still heard many people around me saying that they wanted a hand in it. I couldn’t have cared less as long as we got our own HOS.

    To say I was mad when the vote was No is an understatement. I almost uttered the fword for the first time in my life.

    Thanks Musrum – I will copy what you have said and will astound not only my sons but the grandkids. That is really saying something. lol

    I could not believe we had let it slip away so easily. It is now going to have to wait awhile as it is not a first order issue.

  22. Wow, what an article on Hewson giving it to Costello! That is the best telling someone off I have ever read in politics. The reason Hewson did it is because they hate each other and it was payback for Cossie. Hewson finally had the perfect opportunity, and he let rip. It’s all TRUE I might add. Every single word of it. Cossie is bone lazy (treasury knows it), weak as thin air and unelectable.

    Deep commiserations to Cossie supporters and Bree. Handover the tissues. Bwahahahaha.

  23. [I voted Yes ]

    Fine, so you are acquitted of responsibility for the loss of the referendum. That leaves the question of what you think Turnbull should have done differently.
    * Agreed to direct election? In that case the referendum would have been lost just as decisively, because many people who voted Yes for indirect election would have voted No to direct election.
    * Refused to participate on the grounds that Howard was rigging the process? A defensible view, but it means we would have had no referendum at all.

  24. Turnbull is no politician. I’ve been saying that from Day #1… even before that, if that’s possible.

    The Republic Referendum gave him away. He latched onto what he thought was an unloseable cause and lost it anyway.

    The man’s a contrarian. He’s at his best when he thinks “outside the square”, but at the end of it all he’s in for a quick fix of glory. Always has been. He’ll tire of politics when he realises he doesn’t have a chance of winning the next election, and likely the election after that. If he contests the next one as Leader, he’ll blow away as quickly as he blew in, the day after the vote.

    Not to say he doesn’t have guts. He does. But it’s crazy-brave, crash-through-or-crash guts. He likes to get in a score a quick win. Then he moves on. He’s only been in Parliament for four years and for a while the “meteoric rise” seems standard-Turnbull. But now he’s come up against a brick wall in the Rudd government which continues to do well with the support of millions who tired of Howard, who want Australia to succeed (despite the doom and gloom being purveyed), believe it will and don’t want to hear senior Opposition types telling them they were wrong in choosing Labour, wrong in continuing to support Labour, and wrong in daring to hope things might not be as bad as we’re continually told they are.

    In particular, Hockey’s basic tactic of telling anyone who’ll listen that they’ve got no hope because nothing Rudd can do will ever be right, ergo, we’re ruined before we even try, must be galling to those who don’t like to be told they’re mugs, day after day. He tried variations of the same ploy with Rudd in Opposition, with Work Choices and with his petulant sermonising on parliamentary procedure at the beginning of last year in the HoR. I don’t see why Turnbull has chosen him to be the great purveyor of Liberal philosophy and economic management skills: Hockey has been a dud in almost everything he does. No amount of wild postulating and moving little pieces of paper around a desk will ever put this Humpty Dumpty back together inthe form of a recognizably electable Prime Minister. Bad choice, Malcolm.

    To Turnbull himself… Malcolm sees that he’s failed. He’s just hanging around now, hoping for a miracle. Everytime he says “Peter can do whatever he wants” he weakens himself. I think Turnbull’s just going through the motions.

  25. Laurie Oakes long experience as a political commentator has come to the fore here. Not everyone will agree with everything he has to say here, but I think in general he is pretty well on the money. this analysis is a bit long but it has a fair bit of ground to cover. A must read.

    [POOR Peter Costello.

    He was just sitting there, minding his own business, when that nasty Malcolm Turnbull came along and poked him in the eye.

    That’s what the Costello cheer squad wants us to believe.

    The way they spin it, Turnbull offered Costello the post of shadow treasurer and then allowed the refusal to be made public in a clumsy bid to hasten Cossie’s exit from Parliament.

    Some might see this interpretation of events as paranoia, but it looks more like a calculated political ploy to give the former treasurer and frustrated wannabe prime minister an excuse to renominate for his seat of Higgins in the June pre-selection. Via various proxies in the Liberal Party and the media, Costello seems to be sending the message: “I’m not going to be elbowed out. I’ll saddle up for another parliamentary term to teach Turnbull a lesson.”

    Inevitably, sections of the Liberal Party interpret that as meaning Costello has put himself back in play for the Opposition leadership.

    His behaviour is causing colleagues to assume that he would now take the job if it fell into his lap.

    As a result, it is game on! Turnbull’s position is under fair dinkum attack.

    This would make some sense if Costello really has decided he wants to be opposition leader after all. He is still the Coalition’s best parliamentary performer and his reputation as an economic manager would certainly be valuable in the current political climate.

    But Costello continues to talk in riddles about his intentions.

    “I’ve made my position entirely clear,” he says over and over again. Yeah. Clear as mud.]

    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25082999-5001030,00.html

  26. Centre @ 83

    Nobody in Australia really gives a toss about what Hewson has to say. A bitter man rejected in 1993. All in all, this rant has backfired on Hewson and has weakened Turnbull even more. Costello is still the shiny star.

  27. Bree is right about the first part. Hewson has always been bitter and twisted since losing in ’93, but Costello no star, he’s an astroid heading straight for the Liberal Party. No one could lead his self interested colleagues at the moment, Turnbull included. Discipline needs to be achieved, and opposition parties need to be ruled with an iron fist if they want to obtain government. No one in the current crop of contenders matches that description.

  28. Adam – In retrospect I thought the Referendum should have been delayed until all the fighting had settled.

    It was all so silly. So what if we had delayed it for a couple of years or so – the compromise may have better reflected what the people wanted – not the stacked Convention agreement.

    The arguments started immediately it was known that the pollies would be making the decision. I watched every part of that Convention (even bought Vizard’s book afterwards) but I was hearing from a lot of people that they weren’t happy. ‘Better none than what they are asking’ seemed to be the refrain.

    And I am with BB – he has said it all. I’m sorry things are not turning out well for Malcolm but all the way, in everything he does, it seems that there is a little sneakiness.

    He seems to let a lot of people down in the long run. Short term Mal – get in for the big bang and move on before they catch you out. You are right BB

  29. Bree, this is what Turnbull should do if he was really smart:

    Turnbull should hold a press conference and demand that Cossie finally shows a glimpse of ticker for the first time in his life and challenge for the leadership OR leaves the Party NOW because it is impossible for any Opposition Leader to do the job properly with constant and forever speculation of Cossie’s future!

    Cossie would then have absolutely no choice but to challenge, lead the Liberals to certain defeat at the next election, I collect 🙂 and Turnbull could have another go for 2013 where is chances would be greater.

  30. #93 We all know that Turnbull doesn’t have the guts for this, nor does he the authority having won the last pre selection contest by such a narrow margin. Centre’s plan would lead to more calamity, whilst entertaining it would hardly be productive for the party.

  31. Centre @ 93

    Wrong! Turnbull will lead to 2010 and lose and go the backbench. Costello will lead us to victory in 2013 with Hockey as deputy leader. Costello/Hockey in 2013 is the winning ticket!

  32. [Costello the “low-altitude flyer” …]

    Just have a look at Costello grinning from ear to ear but fidgeting in his seat like he’s jus $hat his pants.

    That’s why he won’t put his hand up for the leadership as he knows he’ll get more of the same from Rudd and Gillard.

  33. Any chance the good people of Higgins will get jack of Cossie’s destruction of the Liberal Party and vote him out? Of course, any Lib vote away from him could be balanced by Labor voters strategically voting for him to keep him in harm’s way (a la Rush Limbaugh’s advocating Repugs vote for Hillary in the primary to draw out the Obama cakewalk).

  34. Keating knew how to get under Costello’s skin, that’s for sure.

    (Note: I’m not a Keating Tragic. The man is as self-obsessed as the rest of ’em … but he could turn a phrase or two.)

  35. Read somewhere the other day that Michael Kruger is still organising for Cossie to be leader and for all Vic Party Officials to retain jobs.

    All the publicity this weekend may cause Costello to change his mind – or NOT.

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