Essential Research: 61-39

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead steady on 61-39. As promised, there is also voluminous material on attitudes to the economy and stimulus package:

• 62 per cent are “concerned” about job security over the coming year, although 60 per cent are “confident” Australia can withstand the crisis.

• The opposition’s approve-disapprove split on handling of the crisis has widened from 31-35 to 35-44, while the government’s is little changed.

• Labor is more trusted to handle the crisis than the Coalition by 55-25.

• A somewhat unwieldy question about which leader’s approach to stimulus is preferable has Rudd leading Turnbull 51-33.

• Opinion is also gauged on five individual aspects of the package, with free ceiling insulation rated significantly lower than the rest.

• Perhaps most importantly, Peter Costello outscores Malcolm Turnbull in a head-to-head preferred Liberal leader contest 37-26.

What’s more:

• Last weekend’s Sunday Telegraph reported that Malcolm Turnbull is supporting preselection moves against former NSW Opposition Leader Peter Debnam in the blue-ribbon Vaucluse, which is wholly contained within Turnbull’s federal seat of Wentworth. Those named as possible successors are “restaurateur Peter Doyle, barrister Mark Speakman, UNSW Deputy Chancellor Gabrielle Upton, barrister Arthur Moses and former Optus spokesman Paul Fletcher”. Debnam quit shadow cabinet last May in protest against his party’s support for the government’s attempt at electricity privatisation, and was left out in December’s reshuffle despite reportedly angling for the Shadow Treasurer position. Also rated as a possible starter is Joe Hockey, who might have other ideas now he’s Shadow Treasurer. Alex Mitchell writes in Crikey that Hockey might also be keeping an eye on Jillian Skinner’s seat of North Shore, and muses that Tony Abbott might also consider the state premiership a more achievable objective than a return to government federally.

• Former Howard government minister Richard Alston has nominated for a Liberal federal electoral conference position, which is reportedly a gambit in the keenly fought contest to replace retiring Petro Georgiou in the blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. Described by The Age as a “patron” of long-standing hopeful Josh Frydenberg, Alston will attempt to gain the position at the expense of incumbent Paula Davey, who is associated with faction of Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu – which would prefer that the seat go to Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam.

• Yesterday’s Sunday Times reported that long-serving Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri has been sounded out by Labor as a possible successor to Jim McGinty as state member for Fremantle. The report raised the prospect of McGinty going sooner rather than later, thereby initiating what could prove a very interesting by-election in the Poll Bludger’s home electorate. While Fremantle has been in Labor hands since 1924, McGinty received an early shock on election night when it appeared Greens candidate Adele Carles might overtake the Liberals and possibly win the seat on their preferences. Carles was ultimately excluded at the second last count with 28.6 per cent of the vote to the Liberal candidate’s 32.1 per cent.

• Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett rates himself “extremely pleased” that Winnaleah-based school principal Brian Wightman will seek Labor preselection for Bass at the March 2010 state election. Labor narrowly failed to win a third seat in Bass at the 2006 election, being pipped at the post by the Greens for a result of two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens. The likelihood of a swing against Labor next time means Labor is all but certain to again win two seats: one seems certain to stay with former federal MP Michelle O’Byrne, while the other is being vacated by retiring member Jim Cox. Also in the field will be CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean, reckoned by The Mercury to be a “star candidate” despite having been “condemned by many diehard members of the Labor Party in 2004 when he backed Liberal Prime Minister John Howard over Labor’s then-federal opposition leader Mark Latham”.

• The Hobart Mercury talks of upper house disquiet over Tasmanian government legislation for fixed terms, a draft of which is “currently out for consultation”. The government wants early elections for the House of Assembly to be allowed if the Legislative Council does so much as block a bill the Assembly has deemed to be “significant”. This sounds very much like South Australia’s “bill of special importance” exception, which I gather has never been invoked since it was introduced in 1985. Independent Council President Sue Smith says there is concern that “the provision could be used as a threat to pass controversial legislation or as an excuse to go to an early election”. Another exception, according to The Mercury, is that “the Lower House would also go to an election if the Upper House blocks supply of funds for a budget”. This seems to suggest that 1975-style supply obstruction would produce an instant election, though I suspect it’s not quite as simple as that. Nonetheless, Greens leader Nick McKim has “foreshadowed an amendment by which the Upper House would also have to go to the polls if it blocked budget supply”. This would be a significant development for a chamber that currently never dissolves, as its members rotate annually through a six-year cycle. Less contentiously, the legislation also allows for an early election if the lower house passes a no confidence motion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,646 comments on “Essential Research: 61-39”

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  1. No 94

    Mark Latham should have been expelled from the Labor party for his outrageous attack on Janet Albrechtsen in the parliament.

  2. Tell me GP, what about farmers? If farms are not viable, do you think they shoudl be propped up? The former government seemd to think so, with tax rebates, diesel subsidies, drought relief, flood relief, zone rebates, subsidised freight etc. I presume you were opposed to the Howard governmetns efforts to keep them afloat?

  3. [muses that Tony Abbott might also consider the state premiership a more achievable objective than a return to government federally.]

    Oh you have to be kidding. This would be a blessing for NSW Labor… an opportunity to win.

  4. Dont you think it was just another nail in Costello’s coffin by offering it to him when he’d refuse, this way Turnbull scores and Costello looks on the out (good for Turnbull)…Hockey will do a better job because he knows his stuff, he’s jolly (personable) and he’s got ticker (ie doesnt take crap)…

    See i told you guys on the weekend Julie would take Foreign Affairs!
    Score one for me, i mean she’s going to need a senior job that isnt in the forefront all the time so the portfolio is perfect for her anyway Coonan wasnt doing anything with it.

    Look at it this way the Liberal Party is living up to its name…

    Leader
    Treasury
    Finance
    Education

    All held by moderates…all the conservatives have is family affairs, health and foreign affairs…

  9. [And yes… a Fremantle by-election would be very interesting indeed!]

    Don’t you mean Curtin – Fremantle is held by the ALP’s Melissa Parks 🙂

  11. [Heffernan was probably the nastiest of John Howard’s attack dogs. But Howard always had a few. ]
    Was he really an attack dog? Or just plain nuts?

  13. [Mark Latham should have been expelled from the Labor party for his outrageous attack on Janet Albrechtsen in the parliament.]
    What? Albrechttsen was and is a hack journalist. Not a jurist in the highest court in the land.

    It is explicitly against the standing orders for a federal M.P. to make derogatory comments in the chamber about a member of the Federal judiciary. But that didn’t seem to concern Senator Hefferlump.
    [All held by moderates…all the conservatives have is family affairs, health and foreign affairs…]
    Pity they have to defend such inane policies, such as supporting higher unemployment.

  16. I’m much bemused by speculation about Fed. pollies moving from the Fed. level to the State. Has this happened? What were the circumstances?

  18. [I’m referring to Williams comments up-top about the possibility of an early retirement from Jim McGinty.]

    Ahh, sorry about that – yes that would be interesting due to the Green/Hippe/Feral demographic that live in the electorate 🙂 and Peter T has a very high profile with his role as Mayor of Fremantle, especially in light of the recent decision by the WA Libs to allow the transport of Lead through the town from Esperance, which is as a result of a recent lead scare which contaminated the local water supply and had killed some of the bird life.

  19. GP,

    At that stage Latham was a private citizen with his children at a McDonalds Restaurant. Latham objected to the photographer taking photos of his children. If it was me, the camera would not have been the only thing broken.

  20. [Has this happened? What were the circumstances?]
    John Brumby was a member of the House of Representatives from I think 83 until losing his seat in 90.

  21. [I’m much bemused by speculation about Fed. pollies moving from the Fed. level to the State. Has this happened? What were the circumstances?]

    Yep, actually at least a couple of former Premiers were former Federal politicians. Ray Groom, form Tasmanian Premier; and John Brumby.

  22. Frank Calabrese, your knowledge of WA politics is great for me, as an ex-Perth person. I live for these tid-bits to feed back to my family!

  23. [Yep, actually at least a couple of former Premiers were former Federal politicians. Ray Groom, form Tasmanian Premier; and John Brumby.]
    Former S.A. premier John Olsen was a Senator for a couple of years too.

  25. [At that stage Latham was a private citizen with his children at a McDonalds Restaurant. Latham objected to the photographer taking photos of his children. If it was me, the camera would not have been the only thing broken.]

    Actually it was Hungry Jacks, but the point remains that Latham was well within his rights as a parent to prevent photos of his children being taken – especially in the current climate of child pornography and Bill Henson.

  32. Then there was the cowardly Costello’s attack on Michelle Grattan, saying she needed “a stronger prescription”. (Grattan wears thick glasses). A schoolboy-standard jibe from the biggest gutless wonder in the parliament.

  34. [He called her a skanky ho.]
    How this is even close to calling a jurist on the high court a child molester, and a hirer of teenage prostitutes I’ll wait for G.P. to explain.

  37. [(Grattan wears thick glasses). A schoolboy-standard jibe from the biggest gutless wonder in the parliament.]
    It was budget day! He was suffering an extreme case of Relevance Deprivation Syndrome.

  39. This is a fascinating review, putting things in a new light for me:

    “Skanky Ho” : My only memory of this incident was that Latham clearly had no idea what “skanky Ho” meant. It was just a really cool phrase he had heard and thought he’d try it out

    ” a stronger prescription” : At the time, I thought Peter Costello was referring to medicines, not spectacles

  40. OK

    To change the subject.

    We had a major draft report on Health Care today – very little coverage.

    Would you support a 0.75% increase in the medicare levy to have free dental care?

  41. No 62

    Markets unencumbered by governments allocate resources more efficiently. No matter what communists/socialists/marxists say, a central planner cannot possibly plan for every single occurrence.

  42. [William… what’s that avatar you have? It’s looking very biblical.]

    I’m pretty sure that’s God from Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

  43. [Would you support a 0.75% increase in the medicare levy to have free dental care?]

    Yep. I’ve got no qualms about being taxed higher for the provision of better health care.

  44. No 134

    ShowsOn, I did not excuse Heffernan’s remarks, but nor will I excuse Latham’s reprehensible attacks either. They are unparliamentary and appalling.

  45. [Markets unencumbered by governments allocate resources more efficiently]

    Ha haha har de har har, sorry GP they get us in the deep brown stuff. 😛

  46. Hockey:
    “It is the responsibility of the Opposition at this time to put forward responsible and progressive policies that will help steer Australia through these difficult times,” the Member for North Sydney said.

    Steer, steer…???

    They still haven’t realised they’ve done none of the steering since Nov 07.

    Talk about delusional.

    But I do like the bit about “progressive” policies. If only, they might still have won in 07.

  48. GP,

    “Markets unencumbered by government” is the cause of the GFC. Evidence would suggest that “markets” could not organise a root in a brothel with a fist full of fifties.

  49. [Markets unencumbered by governments allocate resources more efficiently]

    Tell us the story of the GFC, GP, a brilliant allocation of resources by unencumbered markets.

  50. saw that as well andy c.

    Who’d a thought the denial could last 14 months.

    My favourite:
    [Julie Bishop has done a very good job in laying the foundations for our policy platform for the next election. I look forward to continuing my close working relationship with her over the period ahead.]

    Yep real solid those foundations – they couldn’t even support the weight of the builder!

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