The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead steady on 61-39. As promised, there is also voluminous material on attitudes to the economy and stimulus package:
• 62 per cent are “concerned” about job security over the coming year, although 60 per cent are “confident” Australia can withstand the crisis.
• The opposition’s approve-disapprove split on handling of the crisis has widened from 31-35 to 35-44, while the government’s is little changed.
• Labor is more trusted to handle the crisis than the Coalition by 55-25.
• A somewhat unwieldy question about which leader’s approach to stimulus is preferable has Rudd leading Turnbull 51-33.
• Opinion is also gauged on five individual aspects of the package, with free ceiling insulation rated significantly lower than the rest.
• Perhaps most importantly, Peter Costello outscores Malcolm Turnbull in a head-to-head preferred Liberal leader contest 37-26.
What’s more:
• Last weekend’s Sunday Telegraph reported that Malcolm Turnbull is supporting preselection moves against former NSW Opposition Leader Peter Debnam in the blue-ribbon Vaucluse, which is wholly contained within Turnbull’s federal seat of Wentworth. Those named as possible successors are “restaurateur Peter Doyle, barrister Mark Speakman, UNSW Deputy Chancellor Gabrielle Upton, barrister Arthur Moses and former Optus spokesman Paul Fletcher”. Debnam quit shadow cabinet last May in protest against his party’s support for the government’s attempt at electricity privatisation, and was left out in December’s reshuffle despite reportedly angling for the Shadow Treasurer position. Also rated as a possible starter is Joe Hockey, who might have other ideas now he’s Shadow Treasurer. Alex Mitchell writes in Crikey that Hockey might also be keeping an eye on Jillian Skinner’s seat of North Shore, and muses that Tony Abbott might also consider the state premiership a more achievable objective than a return to government federally.
• Former Howard government minister Richard Alston has nominated for a Liberal federal electoral conference position, which is reportedly a gambit in the keenly fought contest to replace retiring Petro Georgiou in the blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. Described by The Age as a “patron” of long-standing hopeful Josh Frydenberg, Alston will attempt to gain the position at the expense of incumbent Paula Davey, who is associated with faction of Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu – which would prefer that the seat go to Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam.
• Yesterday’s Sunday Times reported that long-serving Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri has been sounded out by Labor as a possible successor to Jim McGinty as state member for Fremantle. The report raised the prospect of McGinty going sooner rather than later, thereby initiating what could prove a very interesting by-election in the Poll Bludger’s home electorate. While Fremantle has been in Labor hands since 1924, McGinty received an early shock on election night when it appeared Greens candidate Adele Carles might overtake the Liberals and possibly win the seat on their preferences. Carles was ultimately excluded at the second last count with 28.6 per cent of the vote to the Liberal candidate’s 32.1 per cent.
• Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett rates himself “extremely pleased” that Winnaleah-based school principal Brian Wightman will seek Labor preselection for Bass at the March 2010 state election. Labor narrowly failed to win a third seat in Bass at the 2006 election, being pipped at the post by the Greens for a result of two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens. The likelihood of a swing against Labor next time means Labor is all but certain to again win two seats: one seems certain to stay with former federal MP Michelle O’Byrne, while the other is being vacated by retiring member Jim Cox. Also in the field will be CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean, reckoned by The Mercury to be a “star candidate” despite having been “condemned by many diehard members of the Labor Party in 2004 when he backed Liberal Prime Minister John Howard over Labor’s then-federal opposition leader Mark Latham”.
• The Hobart Mercury talks of upper house disquiet over Tasmanian government legislation for fixed terms, a draft of which is “currently out for consultation”. The government wants early elections for the House of Assembly to be allowed if the Legislative Council does so much as block a bill the Assembly has deemed to be “significant”. This sounds very much like South Australia’s “bill of special importance” exception, which I gather has never been invoked since it was introduced in 1985. Independent Council President Sue Smith says there is concern that “the provision could be used as a threat to pass controversial legislation or as an excuse to go to an early election”. Another exception, according to The Mercury, is that “the Lower House would also go to an election if the Upper House blocks supply of funds for a budget”. This seems to suggest that 1975-style supply obstruction would produce an instant election, though I suspect it’s not quite as simple as that. Nonetheless, Greens leader Nick McKim has “foreshadowed an amendment by which the Upper House would also have to go to the polls if it blocked budget supply”. This would be a significant development for a chamber that currently never dissolves, as its members rotate annually through a six-year cycle. Less contentiously, the legislation also allows for an early election if the lower house passes a no confidence motion.
GP said
Poor GP, be the end of the year there is a fair chance the entire British ( well on the way) and USA banking system will be nationalized because of inefficiency, incompetence and waste. People who can’t get over old prejudices are going to find the next twelve months really hard to take.
Perhaps Jim McGinty (or others) might time his departure so the by-election could be held concurrently with the daylight saving referendum.
[I’m pretty sure that’s God from Monty Python and the Holy Grail.]
Correct.
My problem with the dental levy is that most dentistry is discretionary. It’s like a luxury for most people. Some people go twice a year or whatever and have lots of fillings, crowns, caps and cleaning. But what for? Are there outcomes to justify this expense?
Personally, I haven’t been to a dentist in 24 years and I still seem to be alive. Why add 0.75% in tax?
153 Diogenes my attitude to doctors. If they were depending on people like me for Doctors would all be broke.
[Perhaps Jim McGinty (or others) might time his departure so the by-election could be held concurrently with the daylight saving referendum.]
Perhaps in the future they should make it that referendums can only be held at the time of an election of some kind.
Less money wasted…
Or, even better, stop using so many referendums.
“Would you support a 0.75% increase in the medicare levy to have free dental care?”
I defunately would. But I bet someone like GP wouldn’t, how dare the government partake in wealth redistribution!
GP 102
You must have missed my post about whether the Liberals would support inefficient farmers? The whole rural sector only contributes about 3% to GDP and not that much to exports. We export 80% of our food prduction so its not as though we need most of it to survive. Its very ineffcient in a resource usage sense but highly subsidised. Wouldn’t the Liberals want to stop inefficient farms?
Looking forward to your answer.
“Some people go twice a year or whatever and have lots of fillings, crowns, caps and cleaning. But what for?”
So they can keep their own teeth?
Diog
What is one of the major causes of heart disease? Rotten gums.
Why do teeth get treated differently to a pancreas?
I break a big toe – medicare. I break a tooth – big bucks.
I have an EPC medicare number – so I can get $4,000 worth of dental care in 48 months. Labor’s changes to this boofhead policy got knocked back by the Senate.
Your arguement is puerile. 🙂
[Steer, steer…???]
Sounds like a lot of “Bull” to me.
[Markets unencumbered by governments allocate resources more efficiently.]
Not if they are restricted by monopoly.
Not if they are restricted by monopsony.
Not if they are restricted by consumers who don’t know the value of goods and services (e.g. when consumers must rely on professionals to determine what to buy or sell)
Not if the good or service should not have a market at all for health and safety reasons.
Not if the good or service is unlikely to create a profit, meaning it won’t be provided by a free market.
Not if the market fails to count for secondary costs, not directly related to a primary market, e.g. environmental damage.
[Would you support a 0.75% increase in the medicare levy to have free dental care?]
Yes, with the proviso that it shouldn’t be used for cosmetic dentistry (i.e. can’t be used just to make your teeth look better, but to fix problems, and of course for funding free checkups for everyone).
[Diog
What is one of the major causes of heart disease? Rotten gums.
Why do teeth get treated differently to a pancreas?
I break a big toe – medicare. I break a tooth – big bucks.
I have an EPC medicare number – so I can get $4,000 worth of dental care in 48 months. Labor’s changes to this boofhead policy got knocked back by the Senate.
Your arguement is puerile. :)]
But Diog has a vested interest in this matter 🙂 These poor medicos would have to make sacrifices to the beamer, the annual ski holiday and the school fees. 🙂
Who’s watching 4 Corners? This is damn scary stuff.
Generic Person
Posted Monday, February 16, 2009 at 7:58 pm | Permalink
No 70
If only this was true.
But some people with really crook and crooked teeth have major psycho-social issues, we are all attracted to people with “nice teeth” it is one of the first things we notice when we meet someone.
[What is one of the major causes of heart disease? Rotten gums.]
You’re kidding me, right. Please tell me you don’t believe that. Can you explain the mechanism for that gem? It went out with the systemic toxin theory of insanity. There is a correlation between gingivitis and atherosclerosis, not a causation.
I should add that most visits to the GP are a complete waste of time as well.
[One of Mr Hockey’s priorities will be restoring the reputation of the Coalition as superior economic managers.
According to a recent Newspoll published in The Australian, Labor is now seen as the Coalition’s equal when it comes to managing the nation’s finances, the first time the ALP has recorded such a result since the poll’s inception in 1990.]
Ha, blanky, ha. Or as Tonto used to say, “How”?
ru,
Others turn it into a marketing opportunity.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiPRN63sfPE&feature=PlayList&p=914A277E0326019E&playnext=1&index=4
“The potential role of periodontal disease, gingivitis and other dental infections as a possible chronic source of infection and inflammation represents a continuous challenge to the host organism. The high number of oral pathogens, lipopolysaccharides and soluble mediators are related to the pathogenesis of local inflammation and the initiation of systemic inflammation process, which may impair systemic health. In the last decades, studies suggested that there could be a connection between the local oral infections and several systemic conditions such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, low birth weight and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Cardiovascular disease is the number one cause of death in the last century. The primary contributing factor in the majority of cardiovascular diseases is atherosclerosis. The role of infection is believed to provide a critical inflammatory stimulus that contributes to atherogenesis. The present review is a short summary of studies of the last years about the possible pathogenic role of local oral infections as a contributing factor in the initiation and progression of cardiovascular disease.”
Diog
Do you really want to debate this issue? 🙂
[There is a correlation between gingivitis and atherosclerosis, not a causation.]
And heart valve failure which kills over 500 people per year in the US.
Frank
[These poor medicos would have to make sacrifices to the beamer, the annual ski holiday and the school fees.]
I drive an 89 Corolla, I’ve never seen snow and my children go to a public school.
[I should add that most visits to the GP are a complete waste of time as well]
If only you could give me antibiotics by blog!
Diogenes is the exception rather than the rule.
[I should add that most visits to the GP are a complete waste of time as well.]
I would agree, especially when most visits for me invlove getting a repeat script for ongoing medications – you USED to be able to ring andask for a repeat over the phone and you’d just pick up the script, but now you are forced to wait over 2 hours just so the JP can do a couple of mouse clicks and print out a scripte.
Luckily my GP Bulk-Bills 🙂
Grog – and medical certificates!
ruawake
It’s an absolute crock. The vast majority of cardiologists go into hysterics when it is mentioned. There are a few dentists who keep it alive as a marketing tool.
Brendan Nelson to quit politics at the next election:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25064559-601,00.html
Brenda gone? LOLOL
scorpio
The link to heart valve disease is quite true, but it’s pretty uncommon. Subacute bacterial endocarditis causes it and it is related to gingival organisms. But you need to have an underlying heart valve abnormality for it to happen (eg from rheumatic fever).
He has a prime safe seat, so I wonder if the Liberals will try and find a star candidate.
Bloody hell, it’s like a ten green bootle convention for the Libs.
No 156
No, taxes should not be increased. I support Diogenes’ position on this.
No 157
Farmers should not be subsidised. Indeed, farmer subsidies across western nations are one of the contributing reasons to the ongoing poverty of many developing nations, particularly in Africa.
Oh for goodness sake, William’s avatar is specifically, Terry Gilliam’s “God” from Monty Python and the Holy Grail. Mine’s Mr. Gumby, on account of there being no extant images of HSO, which from my point of view is sort of a pity, but I can live with Gumby as a sort of silly red herring for the unwary, or young, or pitiably unexposed to the Pythons.
Now, apart from who has the worst behaved pollies going, which is beginning to look like a reverse P***ing competition to me, does anyone know anything at all about the circumstances surrounding pollies moving from the Fed. to State sphere, other than them losing their seat.
No 178
An unfortunate loss to the party, but unsurprising nonetheless.
[No, taxes should not be increased. I support Diogenes’ position on this.]
But you support putting the GST on everything, that’s a tax increase from 0 to 10% on some things.
[Farmers should not be subsidised.]
The Liberals support more farm subsidies than Labor, they have to, else the Nats wouldn’t vote with them.
I wouldn’t expect any other answer from GP. Wealth redistribution in the form of a 0.75% increase to the medicare levy to enable universal dental treatment? How dare the socialists suggest such an idea!
Grog
It’s pretty uncommon for antibiotics to be indicated for the disease they are prescribed for as about 80% of illnesses the GP sees are due to viruses. GPs feel they have to prescribe something or the patient feels their visit was a waste of time and won’t come back. It wastes the patient’s time, gives them the risk of side effects and costs a lot for Medicare as well as the PBS.
GP
Still no comment about 102 – would the Liberals support inefficient farmers? You must have thought up a way to avoid the question by now… You remember, you were saying how private is ALWAYS more efficient than public.
No doubt Nelson can quit now, happy that Julie Bishop’s career is also over.
No 181
Rosanna Capolingua would be a reasonably good candidate. Although, I doubt she’d enjoy being parachuted in from Western Australia.
[does anyone know anything at all about the circumstances surrounding pollies moving from the Fed. to State sphere, other than them losing their seat.]
John Olsen had been leader of the opposition in S.A., he went to the Senate from 90 to 92, but then quit to become leader of the opposition again in S.A. He then won the 1993 election in a massive landslide (37 out of 47 seats).
No 190
I already responded to your inefficient farmer argument at 184.
[No doubt Nelson can quit now, happy that Julie Bishop’s career is also over.]
Yeah, things must suck when even your deputy doesn’t support you in a leadership ballot.
“I wonder if the Liberals will try and find a star candidate”
I’m sure Corey Worthington would make the move North if her were offered a decent portfolio.
[I’m sure Corey Worthington would make the move North if her were offered a decent portfolio.]
LOL! 😀 I would love to see Peter Debnam make the transition to federal politics. Maybe that is the way they can get him out of his state seat.
Diogenes, doctors I visit never prescribe antibiotics for a virus-related issue. Only if there is bacteria.
Showson, Olsen wasn’t Liberal leader in 1993, Brown was. And the Libs didn’t win 1993, Labor lost 1993.
[I already responded to your inefficient farmer argument at 184.]
You didn’t respond to my explanation of why free markets don’t ALWAYS allocate resources efficiently.
No 197
Ugh. Peter Debnam need not grace the Federal Parliament with his imbecility.