Essential Research: 59-41

The first poll of the year comes from Essential Research, and it shows Labor’s two party lead up from 58-42 in mid-December to 59-41. Also featured: leadership approval (Rudd steady since late October, Turnbull up five points), economic expectations, ranking of issue importance and the conflict in Gaza.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

397 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  1. Listy @ 147

    Thank you. Very interesting. How certain are you that the Hurricane was for testing and not for show? I would be very interested in knowing this.

  4. Steve, nobody knows better than i that most of the media are a pack of pirihanas in a feeding frenzy, but when someone stands for such an important public office as VP. of course they should expect to have every word vetted and every part of their background investigated, i have a healthy dislike and disrespect for most of the media {we’ve turned the hose on them in our front garden at 6.30 am before now} Julia and Kevin have both had to tolerate their origins and past being dissected in minute detail, Palin chose to use the media to help her cause but decries it when it pries further than she wishes, silly woman expects them to keep to her version of rules, how dumb can you get!

  5. Well some conservatives can admit the truth about Dubbya. Boris Johnston has written this very amusing piece on the Bush presidency in the Age today which I know Glen will love:
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/dubya-was-in-a-league-of-his-own-20090113-7g2d.html?page=-1

    To be fair, Johnston points out, Bush made some of his worst mistakes with the support of Blair and Howard. As Johnston concludes “Bush may have beaten all comers in his joyful mangling of English, but you could not say that when it came to political ineptitude he was in a league of his own.”

  10. Gary

    Idiots like Barnaby Joyce are the reason why we are better off with an ETS, even if it is inadequate. At least we get our foot in the door and have a mechanism which can be ramped up in the future. I love Barnaby’s logic about AGW “Experts have been wrong before, so they are wrong this time.”

  12. GB

    Much as I dislike the political tactic of using the ETS as either a bargaining chip or a wedge to force a DD, the Nationals really are fools for suggesting that. It makes Turnbull look weak and them look irrelevant. Technically, with this ETS only asking for a five percent reduction, consumers and business compensated, and rural industries being exempted anyway (!) they have no coherent basis to oppose it, unless, as Joyce has said, they don’t believe in CC anyway.

    In that case, someone should ask him why the Murray basin deserves any special assistance. They should also be able to ask him some interesting questions about arctic ice melting around September this year, whne it will reach a maximum. See:
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    So in that case roll on DD; Joyce said he wants to leave the Senate anyway. Lets give him and Fielding a hand.

  13. Boerwar @ 149

    I did a bit of googling and theres some info about the lone hurri on the RAAF Point Cook museum website:
    http://www.airforce.gov.au/raafmuseum/research/aircraft/series2/A60.htm#

    “In 1941, the British Government presented a Hawker Hurricane Mk I fitted with tropical equipment to Australia. The RAAF serial A60-1 was allocated, but the Hurricane retained its RAF number, V7476. The aircraft was erected at No 1 Aircraft Depot in August 1941, and joined Central Flying School (CFS) on 6 September 1941, where it was used for familiarisation flights and war-loan demonstrations. In mid-1942, the Hurricane was transferred to No 2 Communication Flight and, while at Laverton, it was used for testing an anti-“G” suit designed by Professor Cotton, of Melbourne University. Between 1943 and 1946, the Hurricane operated mainly with No 1 Communication Unit and Central Flying School, except for a month with No 2 Operational Training Unit.”

    so it did serve as a morale-booster for a few months in 1941, amongst its other duties 🙂

  15. “Fresh tensions have emerged within Coalition ranks over climate change, with Liberal moderates and the Nationals at loggerheads over whether the Opposition Leader should embrace Labor’s plan to cut emissions by 5 per cent by 2020 to bring them down to 2000 levels.”

    Bring the down to 2000? I thought it was a 5 per cent cut OF 2000 levels. Has the plan changed or is The Australian rubbish.

  20. and after being Governor of Alaska, Joyce would be more aware of AGW…

    oh oops

    I get those two mixed up.

    Put Barnaby in a dress and…

  21. If there are any policy types pondering 2009 Oz budgets, there is a good post on Krugman yesterday about what stimulus packages actually cost. The answer is that they cost in total much less than the “headline” figure. The reasons are that first the government gets some money coming back via taxation and second it avoids what it would spend otherwise on unemployment benefits. Basically $1 in stimulus spending gives about a $3 increase in GDP (assuming there are idle resources in the economy).

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/

    Applying this to Australia, a $30B stimulus package equates to a 1% boost in GDP.

  22. Socrates,

    🙂 Ever since I was a little kid I’ve loved WWII aviation – I used to watch the 1960’s Battle of Britain movie over and over and over.

    I’m not sure if it really qualifies as a ‘wargame’ per se, but I’d hate to count up how many hours I’ve spent playing the various versions of ‘Civilisation’ on the PC over the last (eek!) 20 years! 🙂

  23. Listy

    I must confess I play the odd wargame myself (my little painted men as Xanthippe calls them). I was just curious because your handle matches a frequent poster on a wargames forum I also read.

  24. FINNS

    #114

    “Idiot to the end. Did anybody pick up Dubya’s uttering during his “farewell’ press conference that the media has “MIS-UNDER-ESTIMATED” him.

    Amigo Ronnie, have u been tutoring him? ”

    Obama wanted Dubya to go out not looking a complete fool in intersts of POTUS credibility & wanted lingoistic expertise , but dubya st.ffed th speling line supplied

    the media has “MIS-UNDER-ESTIMATED” him.
    should read
    the media has “MISS-OVER-ESTIMATED” him.

    As socrates quoted : As Johnston concludes “Bush may have beaten all comers in his joyful mangling of English”

  27. Diogenes

    Posted Wednesday, January 14, 2009 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    “Ronster The new gravatar is one of the greatest men of the 20th Century. He was more of an idealist and sceptic than a cynic.”

    But you haven’t yet changed your moniker name from that heretic diogenes to his worthy now esteemed brother diogrones

    And just that line ..haven’t got anyting worthwhile to say and adding a Link , like actualy suggesting can I scarcely believe that I do …as I get Voltaire-ed You know diogrones that Hillarys ‘that is an absolute’ ruling out any direct discussions with hamas is pathetic , yet Hillary & Obama ar happy to “direct talk someway’ with Iran…why cause they hav/close hav nuclear

    So first Hillary pathetic is message is gt some wmds or nuclear and people will ‘talk someway’ with you (not a clever message & hypocritical also) then 2nd Hilary pathetic is by not “directing talk someway’ you cann’t get peace as peace needs complex negots & need direct bit to do so Then 3rd pathetic is World did negot with mugabe as he was ‘democraticaly’ elected leader although thought a low lifes so Hilary saying you won’t talk to a democratically elected Govt means democracy is now qualified to whether people elect a govt th other side tink ar ok

    Last & most important Hilary pathetic , repeating pathetic Bush & Obama & US wrong starting points & instead using is using oiliness patented words ..”security for one and legit political/economic aspritations for th other”…..how about instead security and full ilegal (per UN) land withdrawal for one and separate 100% normal independent State of contigous pre 1967 war borders for th other …both concurent But he who wants security will not agree to either of th others abov 2 justise requirements (full withdrawal & 1967 borders 100% Statehood) , and then uses there own non agreement to these as pretexts to stay , thereby guaranteeing no resulution , sort of a self created and self fulfilling chicken & eggs exrcuse to remain

    Pity is I reckon Hilary & Obama pathetically fully understand this , and pretend not to know , and many forses camouflage these realities by disinformation and/or subtle gagg its communication to th masses , and diogrones…..yes we can libetarienly

  30. GB

    Perhaps “back-flip watch” where successive versions of Liberal Party are stored for comparison over time? Poss could then produce some lovely saw-tooth shaped graphs from them.

  31. Ron

    I’ll try to tread a fine line on Gaza here. There’s a good article in Crikey about the deafening silence from Rudd (and the Opposition, such as it is) not only about Gaza but also about the media blackout which I find very disturbing. Setting aside the rights and wrongs of the Israeli-Arab conflict, the suppression of any media coverage is always a bad sign and should be condemned unequivocably. The media might be crap but they are necessary in a democracy.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/Crikey-Says/20090112-Crikey-says.html

  32. The US has the same problem as Australia does. During a recession, the current thinking (Keynesian) is for the Federal Government to stimulate the economy and increase GDP (which Rudd, Obama, Brown, Bush etc) are all doing.

    But in the US and in Australia, the State Governments are cutting spending which will prolong the recession/depression. In the US, Krugman describes it as having 50 Herbert Hoovers. So does that mean we have eight Herbert Hoovers in Oz ❓

    How can we fix this? Should the Ruddster be giving more funds to the States?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/29/opinion/29krugman.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

  33. diog

    there ar 2 matters arising One is th parameters I blunted said in #177 , and won’t be last time i explore these fundmentel policy issues here iether Secondley is freedom of press issue that Crikey article highlited

    quote “But at least one person is satisfied with the limited coverage coming out of the Gaza Strip. Danny Seaman, head of the Israeli government’s press office, who has in the past described foreign journalists as a “figleaf” for Hamas, told The Guardian over the weekend that the exclusion of reporters from Gaza has worked in Israel’s favour as it has forced a greater focus on Israel’s side of the story:”

    What one guarantees with muzzling of press getting access is to hear th other side , so that people can make an informed decision based on both sides…usualy one finds some merit in both sides , and surely this is th case here BUT World is getting ‘spin’ only one way Result is justifiably objectiv people just can not believ anyting th one sided mob ar puting out , seeing you don’t know whats spin and whats truth

    In fact suspicon is created they hav indeed got someting to hide , cause if your cause was 100% corect then why be scared of others opinions getting coverage

    This is perfect example of th MSN being beter than people tink it is , when you do not hav it then you realize what you’ve lost When you got it , you freely decise whats bullsh.t , soin , reasonable , magnifico blah blah

    And our oz politcans , disgrace silense on not talking humanitarien bit , and where ar there suport for a pilar of democracy th free press

    “Danny Seaman, head of the Israeli government’s press office……..told The Guardian….that the exclusion of reporters from Gaza has worked in Israel’s favour as it has forced a greater focus on Israel’s side of the story:”

    grater focus ? I did call it biased focus , BECAUSE th genisis of there overall argument is fataly flawed (notwithstandng other side th P people hav also been wrong & immoral as respondees) thats hardly democracy no press freedom , our govt should think we deserve beter than that

  34. Dio

    That is a good issue (State spending) but to be fair I don’t think the situation is as bad here. Firstly the arrangement of state and federal funding is different – here States depend more on direct federal funding whereas in the USA states are more on their own, with their own powes to raise sales taxes and even income taxes.

    Second most states here are doing the right thing – Victoria, here in SA and especially Qld are all pressing ahead with investment plans (good). WA and Tas are a bit less certain. The additional infrastrure funding from Canberra is effectively passed out to states and spent by them also. So there is little risk of massive state sackings here a la Jeff Kennett.

    The exception (and big problem) is NSW. They are in worse shape financially, and have reacted very poorly to the problem. They are 25% of the national population and economy, so can’t be ignored, but other States might resent it if they get special treatment – rewarding incompetence type arguments will abound.

  35. Bludgers
    The Pine Bark Beetles and yours truly are off for a well-earned holiday so will be out of touch for the next fortnight…
    Listy
    Thanks. If you google the wikipedia on hurricanes the odd bird gets a specific mention, with a bit more context to it. It looks like it was the sole survivor of about 99 that were destroyed in and around the Malay Peninsula and the Netherlands East Indies.
    Barnaby Joyce
    You are a star. Any hope that Howard had of using you as a populist foil to anybody remotely sensible on CC has just gone out the window.

    Sitting week should just about be my next set of political entertainments, now that Turnbull has decided not to do a reshuffle over the silly season.

  37. Socrates

    Hey, I learnt something that I’m sure everyone else here knew.

    [GDP = C + I + G + (EX – IM)

    where
    C = private consumption
    I = private investment
    G = government expenditure
    EX = exports of goods and services
    IM = imports of goods and services]

    What % of our GDP is respectively from Federal and State expenditure?

    I thought Foley had cut or postponed quite a few projects in SA, like the new prison and facelift for Football Park.

  39. fredn, more on the myth about “Child porn is everywhere”:

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24902335-5012475,00.html

    And the Brooklyn School of Law savages Conroy’s policy in a detailed report:

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/01/13/internet_regulation/

    Diogenes –

    Our GDP according to the CIA World Factbook is $773 billion (PPP) and government expenditure is $293 billion.

    The US’ GDP, for comparison, is almost $14 trillion and government expenditure is 3 trillion.

  40. Dio

    They have really only cut “wish list” projects in the future. I am not aware of any current commitments (i.e. people working on them now) they have cut.

  41. [The exception (and big problem) is NSW. They are in worse shape financially, and have reacted very poorly to the problem. They are 25% of the national population and economy, so can’t be ignored, but other States might resent it if they get special treatment – rewarding incompetence type arguments will abound.]

    Given that NSW has been ripped off on GST funding for years, the other states can politely **** off if we get special treatment right now

  42. I think the other States should get over their stupid 1800’s mentality and realise that if NSW, and in particular, Sydney, doesn’t get into shape the ramifications are going to far worse for the entire country then any perceived “special treatment”.

  43. You need to take care comparing the US and Australian federal budgets, the division between federal and state responsibility is a lot different, and the services support by the Australian federal budget a lot greater.

  44. The trouble is Oz how do you get NSW into shape, the NSW labor party is stuck in the past and the Liberal party is held by incompetent right wing nutters. Labor has to be chucked out to force them to sort themselves out, but the result is going to be painful.

  45. #193 – That was part of my point by showing how much more our government spends as a percentage then theirs.

    #194 – I don’t know how to fix it all, but some things the Federal government looks like it might be doing such as investing in infrastructure upgrades in areas like health, education and transport are a good start.

  48. So how do we help NSW ?

    Ship more high quality coal? Help the financial services sector? What? Set up a pulp mill at Eden? Come on guys surely it is not too hard?

  49. I have this theory OZ, Victoria has been very lucky, back when the Liberal party could produce real leaders we got two long term planners, Bolte and Kennet, and even today Brumby, another long term planer. The pipeline, deepening the port, all long term stuff. NSW has not been so lucky. Money won’t fix it, you need leadership. How many states build freeways and then knock them down again.

  50. Maybe NSW could develop its regional centres, Albury, Wagga, Newcastle, Woolongong, Armidale?

    Or is it a case of Sydney – crap place to live but we love it. 😛

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