Essential Research: 59-41

The first poll of the year comes from Essential Research, and it shows Labor’s two party lead up from 58-42 in mid-December to 59-41. Also featured: leadership approval (Rudd steady since late October, Turnbull up five points), economic expectations, ranking of issue importance and the conflict in Gaza.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

397 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  2. AAP :

    Condi Rice drew up a UN Security Council resulution calling for an immediate ceasefire and withdrawal from terirory last Thursday for a friday UN vote , which obviousley she wuld vote for , her resolution

    Ehud Olmert PM said

    ” She (Rice) was left shamed A resolution she prepared and arranged , and in th end she did not vote in favour (abstained)

    In th night between thursday and Friday , when th Secretary of State (Rice) wantd to lead th vote on a ceasefire we did not her to vote in favor ,
    i said ‘ get me President Bush on th phone ‘

    They said he was in th middle of a speech in Philedelphia

    I said ‘ I didn’t care I need to talk to him now ‘

    He got off th podum and spoke to me

    I told him ‘ th US could not vote in favour of such a resoluton ‘

    He immediately called th Secretary of state (Rice) and told her not to vote in favour ”

    Th UN Security Council Resoluton for an immediate ceasefire & withdrawal from th Terirorys borders was passed 14 votes to NIL
    (with 1 abstention , th USA)

    US State Dept official denied Olmert’s claim and said says “Mr Olmert is wrong”

    Whichever you believe means….for Mr Olmert what ….or for USA what

  3. Gusface, she’s a jouranlist/author known for her anti-globalisation views.

    Her first book “No Logo” kicked off the whole “It’s trendy to hate sweatshops and corporations” fad.

  4. Liberal MP Pat Farmer must be laughing. In the 2007 Federal Election, he got a 10% swing against him and retained his seat by 200 votes, but now that Labor is unpopular in NSW, Pat Farmer will probably get a 10% swing to him. The Labor man that challenged him must be really pissed off now because he won’t be able to unseat him in 2010!

  5. Why do people think just because a party is performing badly in state politics that it carries over to federal politics? People are smarter than that.

  7. [What’s Lindsay hope to gain from this? He won the bloody seat.]

    GB, probably just letting people know Liberals do exist in some isolated outposts in Queensland. I couldn’t remember the last time I heard from Lindsay but he is alive and well, if not exactly busy, apparently.

  9. Lindsay probably less so than others. Wasn’t he going to retire before the last election but Howard talked him into another three years of doing little?

  10. “What’s Lindsay hope to gain from this? ”

    quote “he is alive and well” , did you want more

    Steve your definiton of “another three years of doing little?” , how little is little

  12. Ron, the biggest decision to make in Canberra these days is which leader to choose. Lindsay is a Costello backer and might just be living in hope of his vote being valuable one day.

  13. Well when Linday retires in 2010 and he’s asked just what contribution he’s made in th last 3 years he can proudly say ” I was a Costello backer and I was just living in hope that my vote may hav been valuable one day , but that day just never came”

    You know i just reely feel Costello does not know what to do at th moment , he never had a plan B , and certainly neverplanned to be irelevant after th electon Costello thought th Party wuld draft him but it didn’t Then he thought th Private Sector would flock to him , but they didn’t His presumptons that he would be handed a ‘gift’ rather than having to fight for it , is I reckon why Howard played to his giullibility initialy years , and in later years played to his lack of fight

  15. Hooray!!!!

    The got rid of the Poopyhead Armstrong

    First class twat.

    So who will be the new editor ?

    no…not Paul Murray..again…

  17. I’m looking forward to the time I can buy the West Australian without feeling guilty, when I can read it without feeling embarrassed, when I can talk about it without getting angry, when I can think about it without becoming contemptuous, and when I can believe a single word within its pages.

  18. [So who will be the new editor ?

    no…not Paul Murray..again…]

    According to the Perth Now Article

    [Former The Sunday Times editor Brett McCarthy, a close friend of Mr Wharton, tonight declined to comment on speculation that he had been sounded out over the vacant editor’s position.

    McCarthy left The Sunday Times in June 2007. He launched STM and PerthNow during his tenure as editor. ]

    Or we could lobby for BillBowe to rise from Part Time CD Reviewer and Full time Pollbludger to Editor. 🙂

  19. And what’s the bet Paul Armstrong will be offered a safe Federal Liberal seat as a reward for handing Government to the WA Libs :-), or more likely will be appointed Barnett’s Media Adviser 🙂

  21. Environmentalists have decided to preference tories in eight marginal seats in Brisbane and the Environment Minister’s seat of Hervey Bay in this year’s Queensland election as protest against the proposed Traveston Crossing Dam.

    *Also note the compulsory News Ltd phrase at beginning of sentence, it is morphing from February to the more general “soon”.

    [With Premier Anna Bligh tipped to call an early poll soon, Labor strategists concede the move could cost Mr McNamara his seat, close to the dam site, and hurt the party in Brisbane seats such as Mount Coot-tha, held by Treasurer Andrew Fraser, Greenslopes and Redlands].

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24918947-5006786,00.html

  22. “With Premier Anna Bligh tipped to call an early poll soon”

    CM demonstrates how to convert an opinion to a fact…
    State an opinion – AB may call an early election (they hope) – then (self-)reference this with the statement above a few days later.

    Voila.

  28. Turnbull says capitalism didn’t cause the current financial crisis:
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/capitalism-didnt-cause-crisis-turnbull-20090116-7il3.html

    This is justa poor attempt to head off badly needed reregulation of Turnbull’s corporate cowboy friends. But it contains two great pieces of news for Rudd IMO:
    – first Turnbull agrees there is a crisis, so Rudd’s actions are justified.
    – second, if the markets didn’t cause this, what did – Bush and Howard? Please explain Malcom

  29. That’s amazing Morgan reckons confidence is rising and 59% of people think “Australia is heading in thr right direction”.

  31. Morgan looks pretty good to me. Looks as if our consumers have been going much better than US consumers.

    On another matter, does anyone have a good idea of the WA statewide 2PP from the 2008 election? I’m currently trying to do a history of all Australian elections since 1997, but can’t find any WA 2008 2PP estimate.

  33. The Essential Research and Morgan polls, even allowing for deficiencies, indicate that the ETS adopted by the government hasn’t dented the government’s popularity. Must have been a good move.
    Malcolm’s going to be the one with the problems. How ironic.

  34. Socrates

    I’m really beginning to wonder just how bad Turnbull can get. He says that capitalism and free markets are not to blame for the crash. The fault is the sub-prime home lending. He neglects to point out that sub-prime crisis was due to unfettered unregulated capitalism driven by a belief in free markets.

    Gary

    The ETS has clearly gone down well politically. The Opposition, such as it is, has been atomically wedged.

  35. [The ETS has clearly gone down well politically. The Opposition, such as it is, has been atomically wedged.]

    Dio didnt you mean anatomically wedged
    as in “they are still talking out of their…..”

  36. Congratulations to Trooper Mark Donaldson on being awarded the first Victoria Cross for Australia and the first Australian to win a VC since 1969.
    Saw the presentation ceromony on Sky news, our GG is all class .
    [Trooper Donaldson deliberately drew enemy fire away from his wounded comrades during the ambush on Australian, US and Afghan forces in Afghanistan’s Uruzgan province.

    The Special Operations Task Group member dashed 80 metres under heavy enemy fire to rescue an injured Afghan interpreter and carry him to safety. He also administered first aid to others who were wounded before rejoining his patrol to continue fighting]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/16/2467488.htm

  37. Dio

    I agree of course Turnbull’s logic is false, but it amuses me that he runs such lines. Even assuming he knows nothing about economics, they are politically risky. The first question he should be asked in parliament is “what did cause it”? There is no good answer:
    – “I don’t know” – then why should we put you in charge of the country Malcolm?
    – “Its just bad luck” – so was Howard’s good economy just good luck?
    – “it wasn’t my banker friends” – then who was it? and if the bankers don’t cause anything, why do they take so much money in fees?
    – “it wasn’t Bush and Howard” – then Labor caused the recession in advance of taking office?
    – “we didn’t react strongly enough” – then why did the coalition block budget revenue measures in the Senate?

    He’s on a hiding to nothing on this one.

  38. Gary at 383 says about ETS
    [Malcolm’s going to be the one with the problems. How ironic.]
    You could be right there,
    [More Coalition discord over climate change policy
    Earlier this week Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce labelled the Government’s emissions trading scheme as rubbish and questioned the causes of climate change.
    It put the Nationals at odds with their coalition partner, with the Liberals’ Christopher Pyne calling for a more progressive approach to environmental issues
    But Mr Pyne has been rebuffed by his own party, with senior Liberal Nick Minchin saying that would be the wrong way to go.

    “I certainly don’t agree that we should be moving to the left,” he said.

    “So, I do join cause in arguing that case and suggesting with great respect to Mr Pyne that that’s not the direction the Liberal Party should adopt and not the interpretation we should put on the last election.”]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/16/2467569.htm?section=justin

  39. [The Essential Research and Morgan polls, even allowing for deficiencies, indicate that the ETS adopted by the government hasn’t dented the government’s popularity. Must have been a good move.]

    Of course, no surprise.

    In the same sense that children overboard and a hardline immigration stance were “good moves”.

  40. This is the two big things that will happen in 2009:

    1. Anna Bligh will win a landslide victory in the Qld state election
    2. Peter Costello will oust Malcolm Turnbull

  41. All this ETS talk reminds me…

    Look at what the British Tories are proposing:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7832384.stm

    “The Tories want to turn the UK into a pioneer of green innovation and technology and say their proposals will make British homes and businesses dramatically more energy efficient.

    They say “decarbonising” the UK will help create hundreds of thousands of jobs, raise skills and improve competitiveness. ”

    Meanwhile the Australian version….and the ALP for that matter…..

  42. 389 – Thanks Oz for backing up my argument that anything tougher would be political suicide for the government. What government is ever going to put themselves in that position? Not even a Greens government would do that.

  43. zombie mao – why leave out this quote?
    [Energy experts have cautiously welcomed the plans but questioned how “workable” the ideas were.]

  44. Oh and this one.
    [Philip Wolfe, director general of the Renewable Energy Association, said: “This report rightly highlights the need for quantum change and positive benefits this would bring to the UK economy.
    “We support most of their proposals, but as ever good ideas become good policy only when effectively implemented.”]
    No detail, no targets and not in government. How easy it is to be in opposition.

  45. [Thanks Oz for backing up my argument that anything tougher would be political suicide for the government.]

    I don’t recall saying that and I reject that proposition.

    There’s a lot of middle ground between overwhelming support and political suicide.

  46. Liberal MP Pat Farmer must be laughing. In the 2007 Federal Election, he got a 10% swing against him and retained his seat by 200 votes, but now that Labor is unpopular in NSW, Pat Farmer will probably get a 10% swing to him. The Labor man that challenged him must be really pissed off now because he won’t be able to unseat him in 2010!

    Pat (Forrest Gump) Farmer aka the Running Man has been laughing at us all for years. Politically acute as a sea slug his time in Parly has been notable only for the high turnover of his office staff and the vacuity of the utterances that made it to daylight after that same staff failed to persuade him to keep his mouth shut.

    At the moment he is, according to his local rag, making all the moves appropriate to those on their way out ie. failing to turn up at local school presentation nights after previously accepting invites, moving residence to location well away from the electorate etc..

    Given that there may well be a Liberal MP with something actually resembling a profile looking for a seat after the redistribution Farmer may have the decision on his future taken for him.

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