The first poll of the year comes from Essential Research, and it shows Labor’s two party lead up from 58-42 in mid-December to 59-41. Also featured: leadership approval (Rudd steady since late October, Turnbull up five points), economic expectations, ranking of issue importance and the conflict in Gaza.
steve
So the NSW Govt budgeted for a $264M surplus in 2008-9 and they’re projecting a $712M deficit, a turnaround of almost a $1B. That can’t be good.
Can’t Rudd give them extra GST money with strings attached if they perform?
Diogenes, page 19 supplies the only five things going their way at present.
Given the very sharp downturn in global and domestic economic activity indicators since mid-September 2008, downside risks to the NSW economic outlook are clearly present. However, there are a number of factors which will support the economy, and prepare for a recovery in 2009-10.
•
The aggressive RBA interest rate cuts will impact quickly for mortgage holders and potential mortgage holders. Unlike the United States, the great bulk of mortgages in Australia are floating rather than fixed rate, and hence Australian monetary policy is more effective in its impact on the housing sector than US monetary policy. Given that NSW mortgages are higher than the national average, NSW will benefit most from interest rate reductions. Further declines in official rates are anticipated by markets.
•
While a substantial federal fiscal stimulus is already in place, the Federal Government has indicated that should conditions require it, further stimulus will be forthcoming.
•
The 24.2 per cent increase in NSW total state capital expenditure in 2008-09 is providing support for NSW economic activity and jobs. The increase in the total net lending deficit, from $4.7 billion in 2007-08 to $8 billion in 2008-09, represents a significant fiscal stimulus in New South Wales.
•
The recent sharp depreciation of the Australian dollar will also provide support for the NSW manufacturing and services sectors.
•
Latest projections from ABARE (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics) for the 2008-09 crop year, while marginally below previous estimates, continue to suggest a strong rebound in farm production and rural exports from the drought-affected 2007-08 result.
2008-
I agree NSW needs Federal help – I was explaining that it carries political risks, not implying I hate NSW citizens. I feel sorrry for them with their predicament, which they can’t avoid.
However Dario the GST share claim for NSW is really spurious. Every State can make a claim of that type if they chose teh right comparison base. First its not even clear if its true. Many corporate head offices might pay their GST in NSW but the activity happens elsewhere. So its very hard ot actually prove that NSW residents pay that tax. The same problem holds with fuel taxes. Plus faster growing states correctly argue that tax distribution formulas based on (after the fact) population statstics don’t get them their correct current share of revenue. Second NSW gets more than its share of many other taxes and Federal funds. Third lots of federal public servants in NSW result in a net inflow of federal fudns via wages. Fourth they don’t generate anything like the export revenue of Qld or WA.
I would expect that the states witha legitimate grievance on federal funding vs tax paid would be WA and Qld, with Tasmania traditionally heavily subsidised by the rest of us. SA, NSW and Vic are probably about square.
The problem in NSW is that any of the solutions are painfull and hard to implement in a downturn because they might cost some people their (undeserved) jobs eg in Sydney Rail Corp.
The Commonwealth Govt. paid $9.85 billion to NSW in 2007-2008, nearly $3 billion more than any other State.
Enough said 😉
http://mirror.nla.gov.au/budget/2007-08/bp3/html/bp3_main-04.htm
I am really surprised that not much has been out of Barnaby Joyce’s comment that to be called “CC Skeptic” is an emotive term like calling someone a “holocaust skeptic”. Methinks Barnaby has reached his Peter’s Principle and should clarify himself where he really stands on “holocaust skeptic”.
Socrates back at 162. You need to be very careful of that graph. It’s showing something that is probably not terribly useful in terms of climate change. For a more extensive and informed explanation, go to Larvatus Prodeo, and the posting on Science, Denialism and Fraud, I think it’s called.
The Finns, I reckon Barnaby is a gift that will go on giving, particularly if egged on by Howard. Very entertaining Possum post on the subject, if you haven’t seen it.
I don’t live in the Rum Rebellion State and have been somewhat bemused by the decline of the ALP there. From outside it looks like incompetence and corruption. From what tenuous connections I have to NSW Labor, it looks to me like no-one ever told them their behaviour was pretty obvious to all. i.e., they are incompetent and/or corrupt. Unless there is a competent State gov’t. in NSW, why would anyone give them more money?
[Unless there is a competent State gov’t. in NSW, why would anyone give them more money?]
208 Harry “Snapper” Organs – hell, they could be waiting many years.
I’m still wondering why anyone would feel sorry for any New South Welshman.
By the look of these graphs, housing is about set for a bounce too.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5609.0?OpenDocument
“Unless there is a competent State gov’t. in NSW, why would anyone give them more money?”
because Australians live there , what sort of people say this
and you earmark funds for projects , it called governanse
BTW do you understand $3 billion increase in captial monies is already happing rthis financial year , and more Fed funds ar needed in that area for infra and for stimuli
I remeber when vic was financialy st.ffed after Kirner , and Kennett comes to Canberra begging for money , and without know ing whether his liberal enemies were just as incompetnt as kirner , keating gives th money with strings for specifacs
now Keating didn’t worry Kennett was Liberal aor why waste money in vic its st.ffed when money could be spent in home srate NSW or growth state Q’ld …no he gav it cause it was needed full stop as vic was part of oz….just made sure of governance & strings bit
Some of you guys hav your own state bias’s and stuff th rest , except when another State may be a plus or assistanse ….a 3 state resident over years being progressively deported one by one , one sees such pettiness by a minority by indiv Statee , and its not good Fortunately our Fed politcans both sides ar not so small minded , understanding this in a Federaton , and all states hav ups and downs in cycles with Tas permanently in need for obvious reasons
I think it’s a matter of dispute as to how fairly the States are treated with Commonwealth revenue distributions in general and GST funds specifically, under the aegis of the Commonwealth Grants Commission. These issues are canvassed in a Parliamentary Library research note by Richard Webb:
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rn/2002-03/03rn01.pdf
I had assumed that historically NSW and Victoria had been disadvantaged in this process, largely as a function of their earlier development and their larger tax bases. Webb implies that this (Vic, NSW) grievance is legitimate (while indicating that the basis of what is “fair” treatment is highly contentious), but he also suggests that WA has grounds for complaint about the distribution. The difficulty in moving to a new deal is in getting agreement among the States, when the status quo serves the interests of the other three States.
This is not to excuse what appears to be poor performance by the current NSW Government over quite a long time. However, I question Socrates comment (#203) on the thread which implies that NSW has had little cause for complaint about their share of Commonwealth funds.
Ron, Whitlam spent buckloads of money on Queensland even though the only thanks he got from the flying peanut was truckloads of abuse. The National interest has always been a more generous beast than states rights.
“The National interest has always been a more generous beast than states rights.”
Yes that was what my post was saying And on Sir joh , he used to then claim HE had got th monies for queenslanders and we hav been short changed by those Southerners….again ….but i’m in charge ‘don’t you worry about that”
Gary, it’s not that I don’t feel for my fellows in N.S.W.. One of my good buddies has been corresponding for ages about why N.S.W. is so different to Vic. Labor. We’re not imsiders, so really don’t know. I can tell you that working in Vic. Labor land in the public sector, is a total p.i.t.a. Mostly because they’ve employed control freaks or ex-lib politicians, probably to keep them off the streets, even if temporarily. I’m thinking long service leave.
Ron 211, you are a patronising git
1
Sorry. I didnt mean to do that
Harry
#208
“Unless there is a competent State gov’t. in NSW, why would anyone give them more money?””
Your comment reeked of social , equitable , politcal & econamic foolishness , so in hindsite my reply comment on how States ar trated and governance requirements treated you better than you deserved… ‘patronising’ usualy logicaly ends up at th feet of th one saying it
MC @ 218
Strongly disagree with your 1.
A major problem with NSW is that Sydney is just so big, and so integral to all means of communication. Hence politics has allied with geography to put the bulk of road/rail/air infrastructure in the most congested space. Another is that Sydney is the world capital of nimby ism. Everybody knows that more rail, port and road infrastructure is required, and knows roughly where it is required, but the world champion whingers sure dont want these things near them. In addition, most Sydneysiders seem to think that public transport is just the thing, but only for other people.
Any decentralisation of NSW should only be considered for east of the great dividing range. West of that should be left to decline to widespread service towns for very broadacre farming to take some of the pressure off the MDB.
No, I take it back – your post at 218 was better than 222.
“Infrastructure is in the most congested space”?
You mean where most of the people live? Outrageous.
It’s not really a surprise though why Sydney is currently in a mess. When you have no cohesive, long-term, strategic plan that you actually follow through with and implement for a city of this size what do you expect?
I’m a fan of Sydney, I’ve lived here almost my whole life. I also travel a fair bit so I’ve seen cities from all around the world. While I’m not going to say “Sydney should be the London/Singapore/San Francisco/etc of Australia” I really think we can do a lot better, even compared to other capital cities in Australia! Unfortunately we’re cursed with the two most disgusting political parties in the world – NSW Labor and the Liberals.
People in the Western Suburbs lament the lack of public transport options available to them and they’re right to do so, but seriously, they’re screwed. If we can’t get a comprehensive, integrated and economical public transport system in high density areas there’s no hope for the ‘burbs. And we’re a bloody rich city!
Spot on with the nimby-ism and the “Yeah the government should invest more in public transport but I sure as hell ain’t leaving my car”, Michael Cusack.
Ron
following on from last nite
I found out that Curtin was banged up for a few days in WW1 for resisting a general mobilisation (he had already been called up before but had not passed)
The details are sketchy but he was attacked by a gvt member over it.
The quote “sons of britain” was curtins. (he envisaged an imperial council at the time of the quote)
“Hence politics has allied with geography to put the bulk of road/rail/air infrastructure in the most congested space. ”
partly true , however that congeston is also a by product of histary , also where decades ago planning it not account for what sydney now is & further where population centres started there
and it does not alter that NSW is biggest per capita contributer then vic , and that Grants commission sython offf funds to other States based on 1/ capacity to rise moneies and 2/ expenditure needs eg a young populaton state is compensated for needing greater resourses for educaton etc Thats why its Federaton but formula’s don’t account for expenditure efficiuencys from hard reforms one state in say hospitals may make , that another mmay not/not as extensiv…and thats why States don’t agree on changing formulas
HSO 216 – Sounds like a good move re long service leave. I must admit my tongue was firmly in my cheek when I wrote that last post. NSW is a basket case. I suspect Rudd could get away with helping them out. The Libs would crow that they are helping a failed Labor government but wouldn’t they also be helping the people of NSW? Labor would have a good case to argue IMHO. Having said that I don’t think Rudd will do anything out of the ordinary for NSW.
Anyway Oz, not sure that page 19 of their Mid year Economic doesn’t consitute some sort of a plan. With housing bursting through that trendline in today’s ABS graph, it might not be as hopeless a future as conventional wisdom would have us believe. Just hope you own a dwelling or two.
Oh really, Ron @ 220.My comment reeks of foolishness does it?
“I found out that Curtin was banged up for a few days in WW1 for resisting a general mobilisation (he had already been called up before but had not passed)”
Thanks for that Gusface….hope you notised when letting know Boerwar know of passing of Histary professor Empororatis batons from Adam , you gained first honor mention there
Seems in WW! Curtin was a pacificist , and am just guessing your Curtin coment : “sons of britain” was curtins. (he envisaged an imperial council at the time of the quote) ” may reflect WW! view of our place in world as part of an empire I assume
Also do you hav name of that Curtin book and author as never read an autobiog of him , just info via from auto biog of Fred Daly & others
Harry “Snapper” Organs
Posted Wednesday, January 14, 2009 at 11:40 pm | Permalink
“Oh really, Ron @ 220.My comment reeks of foolishness does it?”
I posted at 11.14 , and its taken you 26 minutes to come up with that line….and its a queston whose answer is self evident….. for anyone serously reading my 11.14 post #220
john curtin
melbourne uni press
lloyd ross
Gary, I reckon Rudd has got just the most diabolical Prime Minister job since the last one really counted i.e., WW2. Howard doesn’t count because he was and is a …..name your expletive deleted.
[Having said that I don’t think Rudd will do anything out of the ordinary for NSW.]
The Infrastructure Australia shortlist looked heavily biased towards NSW.
That said, a lot of the projects looked like a waste of time to me. Tens of billions on freeway upgrades when half that money, or even less, could create comprehensive urban and suburban metro network.
Page 20 of that Mid Year Review kind of proves my point:
Defer NW Metro
Approve CBD Metro
Defer South West Rail stage 2
Revised Clearways
Defer, defer, revise. Not quite cohesive or long term.
Well, Ron , it might come as a surprise to you, but sometimes some of the people who you seem to think below you, actually have a think before posting.
oh Harry old boy , you just cann’t avoid that patronising streak , quite unbecoming reely
When someone is Barry Hall-ed a few times , glazed they unwitingly rise but equity demands there indignatys suffered is already enough Like quit when you’re so blatantly behind
That’s true and if you read the South Australian document there are probably even more deferments and that was the point being made in the New York Times someone posted earlier today that the states are not necessarily up to date with what the Federal Governments are trying to achieve. Sad but true, Oz.
Thanks gusface , I’ll seek it out…probaly will reinforse my view he is our greatest PM
Is this man shoring up the hayseed vote or just determined to make it impossible for the Liberals to win marginal seats in Brisbane?
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/nats-stick-by-green-nazi-jibe/2009/01/14/1231608777504.html
The last brilliant statement I heard from Springborg was that global warming was caused by volcanoes.
“that was the point being made in the New York Times someone posted earlier today that the states are not necessarily up to date with what the Federal Governments are trying to achieve.”
apart from communications break downs & diferent expertise levels , it also a by product of hugeness of machinary of respectiv govts and & need four more inter govt efficiencys & less overlaps functons
“The last brilliant statement I heard from Springborg was that global warming was caused by volcanoes.”
Does that place Springborg in advance of CC skeptic Barnaby Joyce …, or behind him
Oz
I agree with you on the skew of the spending to road but the problem in Syney is that the existing rail operator is so inefficient that its not just the capital – there is a huge yearly operating deficit to make up (hundreds of millions). Hence treasuries are reluctant to expand the system, fearing it will expand their annual loss.
I should add that, as I said before, I still think money needs to be spent on Sydney (even though I live in Adelaide). It is not healthy that 20% of the nation is a net economic loss. In the end that will cost all of us. However, Rudd shoudln’t just hadn’t the money over. Some reform must be demanded in return.
Michael 222
Its not geography in Sydney – its straight lack of planning. Sydney’s higher population density should make public transport more economic, but Sydney rail is the most inefficient (high unit cost, high staff, low performance) in Australia. Even recently, plans have been developed for new areas like the north west without adequate corridors for future rail infrastructure. So theyd ream up expensive metros (tunnels) instead, btu they never get built. Nimbyism is a problem eveywhere, but the politics is more broken in Sydney.
Ron, that places Springborg behind him, the sequel is never as good as the original or after the pied piper come the rats.
Ron @ 236. I’m not your old boy, and please stop patronisising me. I actually read what you write, and mostly understand it, and I’m buggered if I’m going to be spoken down to by any one. Let alone you.
“Let alone you.”
well young boy , th ‘let alone me” quip reely still shows patrnising …dare i say ego hurt when your 3208 blog was esposed (kindly) by me in #220 as social equitablty econamicly & politcly foolish …you made ablue …it got rebuted …just move on Deel with it
I would have thought that one of the things that could be done with climate change and population growth, and it may just be a short term solution, is to create a highly mobile population to produce food. It would create crap in terms of societal stability, but maybe it’s a plan b. Gotta say I’m in the “too late” basket as defined by Boerwar, type a.
steve
Posted Thursday, January 15, 2009 at 12:30 am | Permalink
“Ron, that places Springborg behind him, the sequel is never as good as the original or after the pied piper come the rats.”
Whuilst i’m an ex Banalander , you’re still living there Steve so you’re th expert and so I’m totaly happy with your judgment call that Springborg is behind Barnaby….that takes some efort to be behind Barnaby
Is Barnaby Joyce a lobotomised Bob Katter clone? The vacant, vacuous stare gives it away…
Ron, you need to get your head around some basic information I’ve freely told to other bludgers fro a long time ago. I’m about to turn 60 and I’m a woman. I’m an old bastard social worker who’s been fighting for social justice for a very long time.