Happy new year: week two

In the continuing absence of new polling, enjoy the following news snippets:

• Amid lingering rumours of a late February state election in Queensland, Lawrence Springborg has floated the possibility of Mal Brough entering state politics by contesting a Labor-held seat. Such would be the only option available to him given the Liberal National Party merger arrangement which guaranteed all sitting members uncontested preselections. Party sources quoted by Mark Bahnisch in Crikey “rule out any possibility that the Borg has seriously approached Brough. It would appear instead that the LNP’s polling suggests continued weakness and scepticism among urban and outer suburban Liberal voters – whose support the opposition desperately needs to be within even a mile of toppling Bligh.”

• The new Electoral Commissioner, Ed Killesteyn, began his five-year term on Monday. Killesteyn has almost swapped roles with his predecessor Ian Campbell, who is now secretary of the Department of Veterans Affairs – of which Killesteyn was previously a deputy secretary.

• UMR Research has published one of its occasional surveys on attitudes to republicanism, which shows both support and opposition losing ground to “don’t know” over the past six months. Other findings are that “men and younger Australians (are) more in favour of a republic”, and that support for an elected president remains overwhelming.

• Only one week to go until South Australia’s Frome by-election, which you can read about and comment on here. Despite a preference swap between independent Port Pirie mayor Geoff Brock and Nationals candidate Neville Watson, there seems little reason not to think Terry Boylan will easily retain the seat for the Liberals.

• Dig Wikipedia’s animation showing the evolution of Australia’s state and territory borders (hat tip to VexNews).

NOTE: No further discussion on the situation in the Middle East, please. There are plenty of more appropriate places for it elsewhere.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

204 comments on “Happy new year: week two”

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  1. John Ryan
    #41 Is this correct or not anyone have an idea thanks”
    John there is no reely short answer to your queston because they ar a lot of factors involved in supplying a full answer There ar two main issues , th fees & there tiers method calculated and level of ones superanuaton asset value
    Fees much much lower in Industry supa funds with admin whereas in non industry ones one tier fee is charged on th total of your annual supa funds whatever they ar so that if they’ve dropped as has occurred under GFC then th fees add to your effective theoretical paper loss …except it’s a reel deduction in money out of your asset , and wuld not be if that tier fee level was based on “gains’ or annual suppa profits they earned for a supa annuant
    Actual level of supa assets in industry supa funds has dropped due to GFC because there ar different categories of investment you can select to invest in from “conservative” to ‘high growth” and many categorys in between representing different ratios of your funds in cash secarities , interest , property , shares….so different funds will hav varying degrees of losses , those with higher ratio of shares will hav suffered th biggest losses , eg all ords was about 600 earlier now is about 3600 being 46% if all funds were in shares , and again within that duferent oz and overseas share industry groups hav suffered varying % losses
    So th fees whatever tier method calced will still get charged anualy & whatever amount is charged , and reduce th supa asset value more in a GFC decreasing value market Good news is that over 100 years th market has outperformed cash , interest , property etc returns …but providing you cash out when market is on an up or at top , in meantime with decreased values th self funded pension taken even at medien % of allowable limits effectively reduces th asset base…guess one has to live long enough for shares to recover but before asset is reduced beyond repairable
    John one can create peronalised formuli’s of varying fees applying , varying returns and different return levels plus discretionary % pension withdrawals to create time and income level comparative grapghs to then choose from I always wonder Not sure if I misinterpretated your quston there I often wonder does one run out of time bfore they run out of money……..so that th kids hav nothing to party on

  2. Gary Bruce

    I feel William will at least consider my #32 multiple points , before desiding However Gary Bruce you miss th contradicton in your post….

    Is your queston banning a subject becuaser its allegedly been over blogged DESPITE that subject CONTINUING to be front page News in oz and worldwide (which means th blog Site withdraws from th whole worlds front page news and lives in denial of breaking top News affecting oz FA)….OR is it you’re unintersted in it and o by definition no one else should discuss it …. OR is it alternativly some restraint is reasonable but bloggers uninterested can skip th blogs if they choose …OR is it argued its non “PURE” oz politics in which case USA poilitcs ar not oz politics either , nor is Obama’s actions , nor Afghanistan , nor m/e oil prices , Habbib , Haneef & terrism origins , EU actions blah blah and ar now non discussable…well then we’ll be down to what…..what is in hansard …no th m/e ar in there ….what Rudd & smith say , well thet’vetalked about m/e recently …or because pro israeli supporters wuld love no further discussion …when its shown 2 sides ar wrong rather than th MSN myth there is only one side that’s wrong then they may get unconmfortable & its unpopular to put a contrary view

    “Events” spike quantity of blogs , as event becomes yesterdays news th new event is blog spiked…your view Gary Bruce of selective posting blog subjects is riddled with inconsistenys as per abov , gray areas of world events spike oz FA politcs and th issue IS an oz politcs FA issue , insensitive as it may be for some…allowing discussion on rst of world except one subject is illogical ….use th skip button , it’s a free country…you do not hav to read anyones blog at all , although i read everyones even on subjects I’m not over intersted in Your potential censorship argument may sone dy bite back on you , and silly ting is I’d
    be viggorously defending your right to talk as much as you want even though I didn’t like th subject orr your opinion on it

  3. free to good home: Amy McGrath, HS Chapman society book Frauding of Elections. Will only need cost of postage if outside Melbourne

  4. Ron, there is no inconsistency. Firstly, it’s William’s blog and he decides, not me. Secondly, having observed William’s moderation for sometime I believe he gives an issue that he deems “off the beaten track” as it were, a run and then halts discussion if it goes on and on. I consider this more than fair. He could have halted it a lot sooner.
    Just one last point, there is only so much that can be said for or against an issue. After a while you get the feeling you’ve written or read a post before. The same points get churned over time and time again. I recall William putting us out of our collective misery for this very reason even on some party political issues.
    Bottom line Ron is that William runs the show and I’m very happy with that no matter what the decision.

  6. This is an election blog and war internal power struggles and diplomacy (abundant in Middle East) are competitors to elections as means of decision making.

    If there is a DD in 2009 then I think that the Greens would get one six year term senator in each mainland state with a far outside chance of a three year term senator scraping in on preferences in Victoria and Western Australia. In Tasmania they may get two six year term senators which would require 15.4% which would mean that they would be likely to get a third senator from Tasmania in the election after the DD.

  7. Gary Bruce

    “Bottom line Ron is that William runs the show”

    Gary Bruce you’ve now ditched all attempts to rebutals to my #32 and #52 arguments , and ar down to “Bottom line Ron is that William runs the show” Well he does not , William and i do …you see whilst William moderates , he does not act a s a dicctator and does listens to his “users of his site” opinions & to there opposing views put ……not that necessarilt takes notise , but does listen first and he has my 332 to consider , thats why he said “please” to see what contary views may come , not that he thought I’d giv a contary view of course

    So far th anti M/E discussion people hav had a say BUT I know from actual blogs made there ar alot posters who think subject is important an said so but i won’t name thems

    But suffice to say as i said I’m trying to re- interpreting Williams “please” seeing its still front page news world wide and also in oz , into let giv some air to other subjects as well , some balanse

    …as do not think he reely wishs to ban a subject , and of Israel of all subjects , when everyone in world thinks its News , aand big News Now IF BECOMES old news then over blogging th subkject THEN has a logical base to it

    (actualy baning something thats front page news may make th baning itself news , which wuld be contrary to th obkjectiv sought) Gary Bruce one should always be careful what you wish for , as that becomes a presedent later with all sorts of unwiting unknown at th time consequenses

    and also do you not hav a skip button because william could simply say that as well , and ask for some restrain in quantity from unashamed Israeli critisisers like me (who also suport Israel’s right to safe security borders)

  8. and Gary Bruce , you seem to forgot I alone defended Generic Person against williams thoughts of banning him , and defended Generic person on many other occasions against unfair treatment here…yet he and i sit on opposite idealigical sides and hav had numerous “debates” , its principal of views & GP had a right to them i thought

  9. I saw Senator Xenophon in an electronics store yesterday. He was buying a Sony video camera so he and his son can shoot vodcasts of salient issues for all South Australians.

  10. Ron, I’m not sure if you’re arguing that William should let all issues be discussed here or not. If you are then that defeats the purpose of this blog doesn’t it?

  11. Gary Bruce , simplicitly extracting my #57 coments out of context with a 2 liner
    Hav a look at words front page news , oz FA issue , world FA etc and put them very fairly back into th context of my #57 where they belong , not left hags on a rock

    I never suggested any issue Gary Bruce at all , like your posible interest in th curent very divisive dispute over th world crossword championships scoring system

  12. Well if that #52 /#57 argument is too hot to rebut , how about trying to deefnd

    Gunns now today , not top news at all by th way , unlike th gazza invasion , Gunns announse they will sue “triabunna13″ who snarled up its business at woodchip mill last month Th writ wants damags for business disruption plus quote actions likely to ” publisise th politcal beliefs of th group 13 ands so gain media publicity”

    Bobby Brown says quote this is not bully boy , this is outragous police state thinking I agree with Bob Brown completely Th first part of damages claim is corporate thuggery to squash legit envir protest and 2nd part is infringe democracy to be able to publisise your politcal views so public opinion may or may not be moved by it , that’s democracy Mr rotten wood chip Gunns

    As a Labor guy , and not a Greens , I can credibly suggest Bob Brown & protestors lack of Media outrage on this and th other ‘20” unresolved case by Gunns suing for damages , hav stood on some uncomfortable sensitive toes , despite Guunns blatant misuse of th law & big co corporate moneys warranting massive condemnation , but where is it I don’t like th mill , but even if I did , two separate rights of environmentel protestors ar being trampled on by Gunns a big co

  13. William would have a perfect right to snip a post on this blog if, for example, it appeared to be the product of a toddler typing randomly on his parents’ computer, or of an infinite number of monkeys. Think yourself lucky, Ron, that any of your “English” gets through.

  15. Ron

    There is an element of “Green” politics (not necessarily connected to the Green Party) who are happy to engage in civil disobedience to make their point.

    This has always been the case – but it rarely achieves anything. Except maybe negative media coverage.

    What do you expect nasty Gunn’s to do? Say OK guys protest away we will ignore you?

  16. Riccardo at 53: “free to good home: Amy McGrath, HS Chapman society book Frauding of Elections. Will only need cost of postage if outside Melbourne”

    That book is junk, not worth the price of postage. Put it under the short leg of your pool table, or use it as Barnaby Joyce implied the Costello memoirs should be used.

  17. Ron, so you think any issue that is on the front page of newspapers can be discussed here. Is that your contention?
    I’m just trying to establish what you think the ground rules should be for this blog. You obviously don’t agree with some of William’s ground rules.

  18. Pedant @ 63

    I couldn’t agree more. Not only can’t you read his blogs but he hogs the site with expansive unreadable ramblings.

  26. Boerwar, seriously, as Oz suggested Larvatus Prodeo has had much to offer on the ME., which was one of the things really annoying me about Ron just going on and on and on.
    BTW, I think your stated position re: the ETS is probably about what I think.

  30. ruawake
    Posted Saturday, January 10, 2009 at 7:27 pm | Permalink

    #65

    “Ron There is an element of “Green” politics (not necessarily connected to the Green Party) who are happy to engage in civil disobedience to make their point.”

    Ruawake sorry for delay , been to a family party , my obligaton was to stay till drink ran out

    I think you hav a point there also I was abit concerned first writ against “th 20” was for 6.4 million started 4 years ago , has been thru alot of court action costing protesters money since , and still is in Courts yet to be determind Next may be against a Union ban/protest or ordinary parents & folks protesting a Nuke plant nearby…BUT now aditional but very inusual damages claim ruawake , being for my summary ‘actions intended to publisise there politcal beliefs & to get media coverage of them’….which i feel is crosing th line of right to protest

    Have a family member ( a farmer) on opposite side of debate to me on NS pipeline in vic , he’s been on tv one of principal protesters and farmers hav been civily disobedient and cann’t imagine govt suing them for damages or pushing there protest to get there politcal beliefs publicity ….so do see your point on civil diisobedience but feel balanse lines hav been crossed by Gunns seeing thats why th Frnaklin is not dammed Been up Franklin there its magnificent

  32. Oz
    thanks for the tip.

    HSO
    Thanks for the feedback.

    Those who don’t like what Ron writes: Don’t whinge about it, just don’t read it.

    Ron
    Vive la differance!

  33. i’m the first to admit my spelling and punctuation isnt the best, in my day education wasnt a priority for women and i left school in grade 7, {i made sure my daughters had the opportunity of uni} now having said that i must admit i find Ron’s posts unreadable and i have to just skip on to the next blog, thats mainly for self defence, they give me a headache trying to decipher them, i read just about everything printed here, BB i wouldnt miss for worlds.
    things are hotting up with Alan’s case and i’m relying more and more on this site to keep my mind busy and keep me sane, friends in America have kept me up to date on the Howard/Blair House fiasco, it’s not dying down over there, the rumour is that Howard wasnt asked, nor accepted till after the Obama’s had been knocked back, dunno that i credit that though.

  34. [Finns – name names!!!]

    Gus, It’s not my habit to stoop down as low as that. So i wont break my habit.

    anyway (not address to you Gus), Amigo wRONg bashing is like the immigrants bashing. there is always a new wave of people who like to bash the immigrants at the time that suit their whatever purposes.

    I can remember Amigo wRONg bashing as far back as 18months ago when i first started bloggin here at PB. It reached its climax with the Hillary/Obama debate that led to the banishment of the Cat people to the G island.

    It also led to the forming of the Amigo Club between myself, GG and Ron, lately amigo Vera. Boerwar said: “Vive la differance!”. Exactly, we ride, laugh, love and sing.

    If you dont like and cannot stand Amigo wRONg posts, just ignore them like i ignore many of the other PB posts here because they are not very INTERESTING. Amigo wRONg posts are a challenge, but they are INTERESTING.

    So stop Amigo wRONg bashing and enjoy your beautiful Sunday.

    [Satyam aims to keep going here – THERE is confusion over the fate of the Australian arm of an Indian company rocked by news of a billion-dollar fraud this week.

    There were conflicting reports yesterday about the fate of Satyam’s Australian employees and the Geelong project.

    A spokeswoman for the State Regional and Rural Development Minister, Jacinta Allan, said the company had committed to paying its employees only until the end of this month.]

    http://business.theage.com.au/business/satyam-aims-to-keep-going-here-20090109-7dq6.html

    Gus, i am going to claim that i broke the Satyam story here at PB well before it was picked up by the MSM.

  35. [I can remember Amigo wRONg bashing as far back as 18months ago when i first started bloggin here at PB. It reached its climax with the Hillary/Obama debate that led to the banishment of the Cat people to the G island.]

    Not all of them. There’s still one to remind the Amigos who will be POTUS on the 20th January and who will be his side-kick. 😉

    BTW Did Obama choose anyone for his Cabinet who wasn’t a Bill Clinton appointee? Except for his Environment/Science team, he’s recycled all the centrist Bill hacks. And if Sanjay Gupta gets the job of Surgeon General, there’s going to be hell to pay from the progressives. He hates universal health care.

  36. [Not all of them. There’s still one to remind the Amigos]

    Diog, we knew that you were perennially auditioning to be an amigo anyway, or was it Mrs. D?

  37. Finns

    Definitely Mrs D. I couldn’t subject myself to any form of Party discipline.

    Paul Krugman has a series of fascinating articles explaining why Obama’s stimulus package is not going to be enough. He uses the GDP Gap as a measure of stimulus needed and its success.

    The Obama plan looks like only ameliorating the probable rise in unemployment by about 1/3. Instead to maxing at 9% in 2010, it will max at 8% in 2009. He also says there’s a “very large risk of getting into a deflationary trap”.

    Are there any equivalent Oz economist figures available on the Ruddsters plan ❓

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/

  39. Oh dear, the embattled Liberal National Party is now crowing that the candidate for Anna Bligh’s seat of South Brisbane and State Secretary of the Liberal National Party was an Office Manager for the CFMEU for three years. Where’s the nearest meeting of Turncoats Anonymous in Brisbane?

  42. Gary

    Far be it for an economic ignoramus like me to speak for a Nobel Prize winning economist but my reading is that he agrees with the idea of capital spending rather than “handouts”. He sets a lot of store in the “GDP Gap”, which is the difference between real GDP (adjusted for inflation) and potential GDP (which corresponds to a high level of resource use).

    The CBO graphs at his site show the gap dropping to 8% soon and only returning to 0% by 2015. He says the Obama plan will only close the gap by 3%. He seems to be advocating tailoring the economic stimulus to smoothing the gap out as close to zero % as possible. Thus the package needs to be at least double in size.

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/06/stimulus-arithmetic-wonkish-but-important/#more-1229

  43. Gary

    With relevance to Oz, if you click on the link in the middle of that article after “How much do tax cuts and spending raise GDP?”, there is a table of what fiscal interventions by the Government do to GDP. Lump sum payments and temporary tax cuts (a la Rudd/Swan) are about three times as effective as permanent tax cuts (a la Turnbull/Bishop).

    Increasing infrastructure spending is the best method (in Bang for your buck) of increasing GDP (after increasing unemployment benefits). So the Ruddster seems to be doing the right things. Amazingly, Turnbull and Bishop have it wrong. What a surprise!!

  44. Thanks Dio. He seems to know what he is talking about, although, like you I’m also an “economic ignoramus”. The problem is that for everyone of the Paul Krugman’s around the place there’s an equal and opposite reaction from another “renowned” economist.
    The problem for Obama also is that he is already dealing with people (Republicans and some Democrats) who are hell bent on going with ideology and insisting that individuals should have “money in the pocket” or “handouts” and are complaining about the size of the package as it is. Imagine if Obama went with Krugman’s approach. The package would never see the light of day.

  46. Please don’t be cruel to Ron, skip his posts if he bothers you. I started skipping over GP when he was posting 300 posts a thread there for a while but would never complain as he has as much right to speak his mind as I do, and I’d never be so disrespectful to suggest otherwise.
    As Finns says be happy and have a lovely Sunday

    A song for Ron
    to me you (and Hillary 😉 are simple the best
    http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=cCG5Tp4ZwZI
    Arr the memories, I’m sure Hillary and Obama will end up being a fine team

  47. [Imagine if Obama went with Krugman’s approach. The package would never see the light of day.]

    Absolutely. Unless there were permanent tax cuts for the rich. Then the Repugs would be falling over themselves to pass it. That “trickle down” economics worked really well didn’t it. 😉

  48. OO at it again trying for a beat up over Rudd’s staff losses. things must be bad if this is the best they can do to.
    [PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd is about to lose his 13th staff member since the election with the departure of his popular media adviser, Tim Gleason.]
    And I hope they aren’t blaming Ruddie for this!
    [Senior advisers Fiona Sugden and Alex Gordon will also leave in coming months on maternity leave.]
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24896077-5006784,00.html

  49. [Senior advisers Fiona Sugden and Alex Gordon will also leave in coming months on maternity leave.]
    Maternity leave! What will they think of next!

  50. Dio, as an economist i’m dammed good at balancing the household budget, it starts and ends there, but Bishop, who has no qualifications either and yet set herself up as shadow treasurer, well, that was always going to be a disaster, Turnbull is an ex merchant banker that says it all, it’s no use looking for any economical wisdom from him, my understanding is that merchant bankers swoop on their hapless prey and tear it apart to be sold off at a profit, that doesnt seem to take much deep economical nous for the fine points.
    Vera, they wouldnt want to dig too deep, theres talk about the turnover and unrest in Turnbull’s office, he seems to have a revolving door, theres definately reports he explodes and gets abusive, hmmm, pot—kettle?

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