Victorian council elections: November 29

UPDATE (29/11/08): For inside dope on progressive counting, Ben Raue of The Tally Room will feed through results provided by his contacts in the Greens. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews might be good for news from the other side of the fence. The Poll Bludger Investigations Unit is also at work in comments.

Local government is the proverbial bridge too far as far as my own commentary is concerned, but here by popular demand is a thread for reader discussion of the imminent Victorian council elections. I gather that most of these are held by post with a deadline of Friday, November 28 for receipt of ballots, but a few holdouts (Banyule, Brimbank, Greater Dandenong, Glen Eira, Hobsons Bay, Knox, Moreland, Port Phillip and my old home of Yarra) do it the old-fashioned way the following day (see the Victorian Electoral Commission for more detail).

Not sure how much success I’ll have with this, but it’s a worth a try. Readers who know or care about a particular local government contest are invited to write a brief, non-partisan overview in comments. If it meets my specifications I will give it a run up here, while keeping an ongoing invitation to other commenters to suggest additions or amendments. To get the ball rolling, I’ll start with everything I can tell you about the race for the lord mayoralty.

Melbourne City Council: After serving two four-year terms as lord mayor, John So is not seeking a third. The candidates to watch appear to be former state Liberal leader Robert Doyle; Adam Bandt, the Greens candidate who came within swinging distance of Lindsay Tanner in the seat of Melbourne at last year’s federal election; current councillor Catherine Ng; Will Fowles, who I’m told is from the Labor Left; Peter McMullin, former Geelong mayor and Labor election candidate linked to the party’s Right faction (although his running mate is the none too Labor-friendly Tim Wilson, director of the Institute of Public Affairs’ free trade unit); and Gary Morgan of Roy Morgan Research fame. The latter has helpfully furnished us with his very own opinion poll, which shows Doyle well ahead of Bandt on first preferences with Ng in third place. Second preferences are apparently set to produce a close race for second between Bandt, Ng and Morgan, with none posing a threat to Doyle. Bandt appears not to have done well out of preference recommendations, including those of candidates linked to Labor.

Darebin City Council: Three wards electing three councillors. Hat tip to Martin B and Caroline Church for the following.
Rucker ward: There are two Labor candidates, two Greens (Trent McCarthy and Helen Brown) and five others, only one of whom has much of an independent local profile – Darren Lewin-Hill. The ward is the stronghold of the Labor Unity sub-faction associated with state MPs Theo Theophanous and Nazih Elasmar, and is not being contested by the rival sub-faction of Michael Leighton and Robin Scott, the former and current members for Preston. At corresponding booths in the 2007 federal election, Labor polled 49 per cent of the primary vote, the Greens 31 per cent and Liberal 16 per cent. If those numbers are reflective of this vote, the result should be straightforward: one Labor and one Greens candidate will be comfortably elected, with the third seat going to the other Labor candidate or, less likely, Lewin-Hill if he can gather enough Labor preferences and votes from Liberals.
Cazaly ward: There are 17 candidates, nine of whom identify as Labor members (4 Unity, 4 Socialist Left, one unaligned), plus one Greens, one “conservative independent” (allegedly a former Labor member with a decidedly non-conservative activist history) and six other independents. The Labor candidates include incumbents Vince Fontana, a former mayor and member of the Leighton-Scott faction, and Alison Donohue, who is also receiving Leighton-Scott preferences but is apparently not directly linked. Haphazard preference arrangements suggests their proliferation might be down not to dummy candidates, as one might suspect, but to poor party organisation. Donohue and two other candidates, Ben Morgan and Joe Cutri, seem to have fared the best of the nine on preferences. The corresponding federal booth results were Labor 60 per cent, Liberal 20 per cent and Greens 16 per cent, suggesting Greens candidate Mohammed El-leissy will have to rely on Labor fragmentation to get a look-in.
La Trobe ward: Even more candidates than Cazaly ward, with better organisation lending greater credence to suspicions of dummy candidates. No fewer than 16 candidates recommend some permutation of preferences for Gaetano Greco and Tim Laurence of the Labor Socialist Left, while five candidates recommend preferences for the Unity ticket of Stanley Chiang (another associated of Leighton and Scott) and Tania Sharkas. Also on the receiving end of most Socialist Left preference arranagements is Melissa Salata of the Theophanous-Elasmar sub-faction of Labor Unity, who is hostile to the Leighton-Scott sub-faction. That leaves only the Greens candidate, Sara Scally, and another who recommends a preference to her. The campaign between the Socialist Left and Unity has been bitter: Laurence took internal party action against Chiang (which was dismissed), and there were counter-claims that Laurence broke party rules with his material. The federal election booth numbers here were Labor 62 per cent, Liberal 23 per cent and Greens 8 per cent, suggesting the issue is likely to be how the three seats divide between Socialist Left and Unity.

Banyule City Council: Consists of seven wards in Melbourne’s inner north-east. Olympia ward: Incumbent Anthony Carbines is chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike (and the son of upper house MP Elaine Carbines), and thus unquestionably aligned to Labor. Beale ward: Incumbent Wayne Phillips was the Liberal member for Eltham from 1992 to 2002, when he became one of dozens of victims of the first Brackslide. Ibbot ward: Incumbent Tom Melican is said to be an independent. Hawdon ward: Vacant ward being contested by two Labor members, Sandra MacNeil and Martin Appleby, along with an independent and a Green. Grimshaw ward: Labor incumbent Dean Sherriff is being contested by two fellow party members, Frank Beard and Jess Paul. Sherriff’s career on council was saved in April 2007 when a conviction for criminal damage was overturned on appeal, but he retains a conviction for assault relating to the same incident. Griffin ward: Incumbent Jenny Mulholland challenged by Steve Walpole, a Labor member, and Dora Bergman, a one-time running mate of Mulholland. Bakewell ward: A rematch between Liberal incumbent Peter McKenna and Labor member Michael Paul, following a very close result in 2005. Andrew Landeryou’s VexNews reports that Greens candidate Ian Kirk has raised eyebrows by giving McKenna his second preference. A Greens supporter in comments claims this was in response to Paul’s attitude in preference negotiations, but the Labor camp insists discussions were entirely cordial until Kirk advised he would preference McKenna on the grounds that he was a “serious candidate”.

Glen Eira City Council: Glen Eira has gone against the prevailing trend by changing from postal to attendance voting. This has apparently discouraged dummy candidates, resulting in 26 nominations compared with 61 in 2005. The council consists of three wards which each elect three councillors, with seven sitting councillors seeking re-election. The assessments that follow come direct from Winston in comments. Camden ward: Michael Lipshutz and Helen Whiteside are standing for re-election and appear to be working together with the backing of the Liberal Party – although neither are members. Other candidates include local businessman Frank Penhalluriack (who actually lives in Kew) and a residents group ticket headed by Peter Blight. Lipshutz is a prominent member of the Jewish community and with over one third of the ward Jewish should have no problems getting re-elected. Penhalluriack has number one position on the voting card which will help him. Lipshutz, Whiteside and Penhalluriack are spending big and will probably be elected. Rosstown ward: Nine candidates. Three sitting councillors standing: Margaret Esakoff, Steven Tang and Rob Spaulding. This is the only ward with a Greens candidate – Neil Pilling – who could be the wild card as he is getting some flow of preferences. Tucker ward: Ten candidates, two sitting councillors standing: Nick Staikos (Labor) and Henry Buch (Liberal). Buch may struggle as he only recently joined council on a countback after the resignation of former Mayor David Feldman. Fellow Liberal and former councillor Jamie Hyams has scored number one position and should be elected. The other candidate with a chance is Jim Magee, who lead the fight to save the local swimming pool and polled well in the 2005 election.

Kingston City Council: The council has been reformed from seven single-member wards to three three-member wards. Hat-tip to Deano in comments for the following. North ward: Incumbent councillors Greg Alabaster and Arthur Athanasopolous are likely to be returned, but the third is up for grabs. Contestants are Paul Peulich, son of Liberal MP Inga Peulich, and Liz Larking, a past councillor and former ALP member. Mara Hayler is running for the Greens. Central ward: No fewer than 21 candidates have nominated, included 73-year-old mayor Bill Nixon and councillor Rosemary West. Other candidates include past councillor Ron Brownless, said to have done well out of preference recommendations, and John Natoli, an independent running a “well-organised campaign”. Three candidates have Labor links, including former state upper house MP Noel Pullen. Geoff Heard is said to be a “dark horse” and a “greenie”, although the actual Greens candidate is Dean Andrew. South Ward: John Ronke, incumbent for the Braeside Park ward, is said to be certain to win one of the three seats. Twelve candidates are competing for the other two. They include Donna Bauer, said to have run a “big spending campaign”; Trever Shewan, a former councillor; Carlos Lopez, the candidate of the Greens; Jeremy Nash, a member of the ALP; and Peter Wertheimer, an RSL captain.

Port Phillip City Council: JH writes in comments: “Another interesting council will be Port Phillip with the Unchain crew looking a reasonable chance in Catani Ward (Serge Thomann has been getting lots of press) and MAV boss Dick Gross could have a fight on his hands to be re-elected in Junction Ward. Having said that, I’ve not seen HTVs for anyone, so I don’t know who’s giving what. The Greens are running in every ward bar Albert Park, which is uncontested.”.

Bendigo Shire Council: The Greens have an incumbent mayor here in David Jones, seeking re-election in Kangaroo Flat ward. Another Greens incumbent is former mayor Julie Rivendell of Eppalock ward. The council consists of nine single-member wards: I gather councillors have an annual vote to determine who hte mayor will be for the coming year. The Greens between them have held the position for three of the past four years. North West Plains ward councillor Kevin Gibbins was a Liberal candidate at the 2004 federal and 2006 state elections.

Mount Alexander Shire Council: Commenter Follow the Preferences has high hopes for the Greens here. The council consists of the three-member Castlemaine ward in the centre, which is surrounded by the single-member rural wards of Tarrengower, Calder, Coliban and Loddon. The Greens have one incumbent in Philip Schier of Castlemaine ward, with Jan Garood and Doug Ralph respectively contesting Coliban and Calder.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

381 comments on “Victorian council elections: November 29”

Comments Page 5 of 8
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  1. Did anyone else watch the Stateline item on the local council elections last night?

    The Liberal local government spokesperson said among other things that local elections should be party politics free and non-political.

    Doyle was anti-Municipal party politics too

    Those Liberals don`t like overt party disclosure.

    Bring on mandatory disclosure of membership of political parties on the ballot paper (preceded by the word “unindorsed” if unindorsed).

  2. The “keep politics out of politics” is another specious agrument. In the same way arguments that a candidate should live in the electorate. It sounds good but should play no role in deteremining who should and who should not be able to stand for public office. That decison as to who is elected to represent should not be left to the restrictive opinion of legilsators. The need to concentrat on ensuring the system is open and transparent not a closed shop.

    City of Melbourme: Reports at hand indicate that Doyle is increasing his lead could reach 23%. Some think the Greens could be in the hunt for two members on Council but out of the count for the Lord Mayor. McMullin does not seem to have registered with the voters and may only see one member elected to Council.

  3. I just got back from handing out HTV cards. It was ridiculous. There were over 20 people handing out HTVs at a fairly quiet polling place. A person would approach and a mob of 3 people deep would descend, thrusting pits of paper at this person.

    A booklet of HTVs should be placed in each voting booth. That way you only need half a dozen HTVs per candidate per polling place, instead of thousands. We would save millions of tonnes of paper and also make the process less traumatic!

    The funniest moments were:
    1. An elderly man who started laughing at the amount of HTVs he was being given, just really cackling, so much so that everyone started laughing.

    2. This is the people’s republic of Moreland (inner Melbourne), with 10 ALP candidates, a few greens and some independents. No Liberals. But there was one regular looking woman, not wearing pearls or should pads or anything, just wandering from card-holder to card-holder going “Liberal? Liberal? Is there a Liberal candidate”. I felt a bit sorry for her actually, it must be tough when you have no-one to vote for or are smack bang in the middle of “the enemy’s heartland”.

  4. Party membership branding is fine but how do you classify those that have a direct and close relationship with a political party but are not actually a member. Catherine Ng for example. Whats next you will have to disclose your Religion, sexual preference or HIV status? There is a big difference between being a member of a political party then being endorsed. The only party endorsing candidates in Melbourne is the Greens. McMullins ticket has both Liberal and ALP members? I do not think McMullin’s campaign did a good enough job selling this fact. It was a bold and interesting idea. I think we will not see a repeat of this in future elections. It will be back to left versus right politics. Hopefully the State Government will recognise their mistake and abolish direct elections of Lord Mayor but I would not hold my breath that they will embark on any meaningful electoral reform for the City of Melbourne. If they wanted reform they would have initiated it well before now. The Genie is out of the bottle and it will be hard to put it back.

  5. coconaut: Where have you been. That is mild compared to a State and Federal election. The voter turnout overall has been very low in comparison to state and Federal elections. The electorate has not really been engaged. They have turned off and who can blame them. Local Government is in the end about Rates Roads and Rubbish

  6. I don’t understand you Melbournians.

    Doyle’s expected to win, and probably will, but apparently no one knows what he stands for and he hasn’t been in the public eye during the campaign. So it’s all because he was Opposition leader for some point in time.

    That’s just stupid. We Sydneysiders actually think about who the vote for. If Debnam or Brogden ran for the Lord Mayoralty they’d be laughed out of town.

  7. I volunteer at the state and federal elections and I can say there were easily double the amount of people handing out HTVs today. I guess there were way more candidates too, but it was markedly worse. It was pretty muhc overwhelming for most of the voters approaching.

  8. Oz@206 – hah, businesses in Melbourne council election get 2 votes (residents get 1) (and so business contributes about 60% of the vote). All you need is business connections (like the State Libs) and you’re almost home and hosed…

  10. Melbourne Update. The race for the Lord Mayor’s Robes and Chains will be a contest between Robert Doyle and whoever.. Most likely Gary Singer in which case Doyle would need a significant drift in preferences to cross the line as every other candidate’s HTV card preferences Gary Singer ahead of Doyle. If Singer has in fact`outpolled Catherine Ng he should pick up the Green’s preferences and in theory is shaping up to be the lead candidate. It is still close at the conjunction point

  11. Thank you J-D for agreeing with me,

    You are misrepresenting me. I did not agree with you. Since I have no knowledge of the subject, I can no more agree than I can disagree.

    that there is something wrong with the government agency debate over which is now closed.

    It doesn’t look closed to me. I don’t know what makes you think it’s closed.

    I disagree that I have no legitimate response but all the points on the matter that needed to be made have been made. There is no need to get personal. Let’s leave it at that.

    I agree with you that it’s better not to get personal, and up to this point I don’t think either of us had. But I personally resent being misrepresented.

  12. Oz I agree know one really knows what Doyle stands for. The media let him off the hook and did not hold him to account for his policies. the McMullin-Wilson team is without any doubt the most professional balanced team. (Best of a bad lot in my view) But direct elections of the Ring Master does not mean the circus performance will be good. Businesses contribute more then 60% of the Council’s revenue. If Doyle does cross the line other then his commitment to a tunnel and Opening Swanston Street he can not be criticised for failing to full-fill his policies. Correction to my above Comment: McMullin had a split ticket one published in the book and one sent out in the mail. The Book placed Doyle a head of Singer the mailout had Singer before Doyle. If the drift in preferences can see the Greens out poll the combined vote of Singer and Ng then the Greens will move ahead strangely enough picking up book preferences from Columbia and Morgan. It is that close at the conjunction point. In the absence of a primary vote throw we are working off very vague estimates of random sampling

  13. Be a pretty incredible result if The Greens win.

    If they win, and Labor still had WA then The Greens and the Liberals would have been on a level footing in terms of executive positions.

    That would’ve been a fun time.

    Regarding Peter McMullin, I don’t know that much about him, but Tim Wilson makes me ill.

  14. I agree that keeping politics out of local elections is a ludicrous impossibility but there is a certain merit in the idea that candidates should live in the seat in which they stand because it means that they have common experiences with the people they are trying to represent. The state Labor party is particularly rife with those standing for and “representing” electorates they do not live in.

  17. Mid day update – More data. The original estimate is back on track. in a reversal of fortune Catherine Ng has out polled Singer. McMullin is on 18% the Greens 13-14%

    My original estimates are looking good. However Doyle is at the top end on around 25%

  19. [Go Doyle! Imagine how far in front he’d be if he actually campaigned….]

    He’s probably only going to win because he didn’t actually tell anyone what he was all about.

  20. Yes but nobody else really campaigned and those that did went negative…hardly anybody votes on policy its all on their name and who they are…for better or worse they know Doyle I dunno who anybody else is running except maybe the guy running for the Greens…

    Doyle will be a darn sight better than So though…

  21. Falling back to our original estimate made on Thursday. Catherine Ng looks like climbing the pack. The fold up at the end is Doyle 26% McMullin 29 Ng 45% (This includes the Greens Preference

    Doyle goes out and Ng is elected. This is based on the book preference value. As we thought there is three close points in the outcome.

    Question what percentage of the Green vote will not follow the ticket and flow to McMullin ahead of Ng. What percentage of Morgan will break ticket?

  24. Gary Singers Scrutineers put Singer and On neck to neck with both sitting on around 10.65% This is the first conjunction point and if it is this close then Singer is looking like overtaking Ng again. Singer should pick up votes from Shelly Roberts which will see he overtake Catherine Ng early in the count. All scrutineers are lost in the count and do not know which way is north as the fog sets in. Had the VEC undertaken a preliminary primary vote we would have been in a better position to know the topography. If it is tight at the bottom end we can expect a recount to dicide who will be the challenger Ng or Singer. The direction and magnitude of the drift is unkown. There are other potential close conjucntions and the meter is bouncing around the change on the barometer..

    Singers Scouts prefs.

    ACTIVATE MELBOURNE 26.26%
    C MELBOURNE GROW – CATHERINE NG 10.68%
    SHIFTING THE BURDEN 1.66%
    PASSION FOR MELBOURNE 4.62%
    THE GREENS 15.01%
    MELBOURNE SUPERCITY. WORLD 1.60%
    RESIDENTS EQUITY – AFFORDABLE RESIDENT RATES 1.70%
    TEAM MELBOURNE 10.65%
    FOWLES A FRESH VISION 8.73%
    McMULLIN-WILSON FOR MELBOURNE’S FUTURE 11.21%
    MORGAN CLARKE – OUR CITY – YOUR COUNCIL 7.88%

  25. Comment on Slanderyou2 that scrutineers in Boroondara have confirmed a massive vote for Liberal Party candidates.

    Possibly so. Remember Boroondara is the Liberal Party heartland and the only declared Labor Party candidate, Marg Darcy, doesn’t stand a chance. Labor might win in Solway ward, which covers the housing commission estate in Alamein, but everywhere else it will be a jewel in the Liberal crown.

  26. There is something out of wack here because figures coming from the Columb scouts show McMullin on 17.5-18% Singer has McMullin on 11.2%.. This descepancy significant. the stats comming forom Catherin Ng scouts show a 106% count…

    ACTIVATE MELBOURNE 27.8
    C MELBOURNE GROW – CATHERINE NG 14.4
    SHIFTING THE BURDEN 1.7
    PASSION FOR MELBOURNE 4.3
    THE GREENS 14
    MELBOURNE SUPERCITY. WORLD 1.7
    RESIDENTS EQUITY – AFFORDABLE RESIDENT RATES 1
    TEAM MELBOURNE 10.4
    FOWLES A FRESH VISION 7
    McMULLIN-WILSON FOR MELBOURNE’S FUTURE 17.3
    MORGAN CLARKE – OUR CITY – YOUR COUNCIL 7

    Total 106.6

  27. Greeens have lost in two single wards in Mount Alexander. The local conservatives have learnt how to rig the system, as they did in most Australian upper houses before pr and the ALP did in Queensland and the LCL did in South Australia.

    Theoretically it only needs about 33 per cent of the vote to control Mount Alexander Council. The Castlemaine ward is elected by pr. The three rural wards are single member. If conservatives win the three rural wards with 51 per cent and get one quota, 25 per cent, in the three councillor ward they get a majority of councillors with a very low percentage of the total vote. It is not democratic and I hope the Greens will do something about it. The ALP won’t and neither will the Libs or the Nats.

  28. Caroline Church @ 225:

    Do you know who the candidates represent in Solway Ward? I could only really work out David Edwards as Liberal, and I think Justin McKernan is Indpt, but what about Diane Preston and Kevin Chow?

  29. Justin McKernan is Independent running on an anti-Freeway noise campaign. He didn’t show preference recommendations in his literature. Edwards preferenced Chow. He didn’t do much work. Chow and Preston would not answer a question as to political allegiances in the Progress Leader. Chow is a member of the ALP. Preston’s politics are unknown. McKernan, Chow and Preston letterboxed the ward. Edwards did not. The Liberals did not campaign in the ward, but unofficially some members of the Kennett faction supported McKernan. They are sensible in this. It is better to have one enemy from outside rather than enemies from your own camp. The Boroondara Council has clear divisions between Kennett and Kroger Liberals, plus genuine independents. Wegman (although he attacked the ALP in the press) Mayor Ross and Kreutz appear to be genuine independents.

    Chow will win Solway. Liberal Healey and Independents Wegman and Ross appear to have been returned. Former Mayor Voce, who lost last time to Healey, appears to have been defeated this time also but the contest in that ward is very tight.

  30. McMullin team say that Singer and Ng are neck and neck but they have gone underground which indicates that they are in trouble. Tim Wilson has reported that McMullin is on around 15%-16%.

  33. Tom the first and best said the opposition spokesperson is a Lib. Jeanette Powell, the MLA for Shepparton, is a member of the National Party. She takes the view political parties should not be relevant in local government.

    I hope I am not misrepresenting her in this. I’m not going to bother specifically with J-D but if I did misrepresent him I apologise. If he wants to continue this topic he should use Slanderyou2 or Vexnews and I’ll be glad to debate him there. Not here.

    Jeanette’s views are typical of the National Party, which opposed proportional representation in local government because too many pinko schoolteachers might get elected to local councils.

    The fact is the ALP rarely contests local government outside of metropolitan Melbourne. They are sensible in this. Proportional representation results in less party politics in local government rather than more.

  39. Victor Perton on Facebook is advocating first past the post voting. Arthur Calwell advocated it when the DLP was strong. Arthur Calwell would have been Prime Minister but for preferential voting in 1961, so he said, but people vote different ways under different voting systems. In the UK tactical voting is practised, where people will not vote for a conservative when they want the Liberal Democrat to defeat Labour.

    I support pr in multi member constituencies, and the alternative vote (as other countries call what we call preferential voting).

    Preferential voting is really a misstatement as preferences are cast also in pr elections in Australia.

  43. Adam,
    I can give you some prelim data from Melbourne City Council. With 2/3 atl vote in (ie., a touch under 40,000 votes received):
    Fowles, 9.80%
    Morgan, 9.15%
    Forde, 1.37%
    Greens, 18.63%
    Team Melbourne, 11.43%
    McMillan/Wilson, 12.56%
    Activate, 21.38%
    Passion, 5.47%
    C, 10.21%

  48. If the territory seats had had full voting rights in 1961 then there would have been a hung parliament and Labor may well have prevailed in that situation.

    So possibly the decision made by Labor that kept them out for so long was giving the territory MPs a vote only on territory issues.

  49. The NT got a seat in 1922, when it had an enrolment of 1,376 voters. The ACT got a seat in 1949, when it had an enrolment of 11,841. Neither really merited a voting member on their enrolments at that time. After 1949, when their populations began to grow, the Libs were in power, and wouldn’t give their MPs voting rights because they were both Labor members. In 1961 the NT had 12,131 voters and the ACT had 28,672. The two MPs weren’t given voting rights until after the CP won the NT seat in 1966.

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