UPDATE (29/11/08): For inside dope on progressive counting, Ben Raue of The Tally Room will feed through results provided by his contacts in the Greens. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews might be good for news from the other side of the fence. The Poll Bludger Investigations Unit is also at work in comments.
Local government is the proverbial bridge too far as far as my own commentary is concerned, but here by popular demand is a thread for reader discussion of the imminent Victorian council elections. I gather that most of these are held by post with a deadline of Friday, November 28 for receipt of ballots, but a few holdouts (Banyule, Brimbank, Greater Dandenong, Glen Eira, Hobsons Bay, Knox, Moreland, Port Phillip and my old home of Yarra) do it the old-fashioned way the following day (see the Victorian Electoral Commission for more detail).
Not sure how much success I’ll have with this, but it’s a worth a try. Readers who know or care about a particular local government contest are invited to write a brief, non-partisan overview in comments. If it meets my specifications I will give it a run up here, while keeping an ongoing invitation to other commenters to suggest additions or amendments. To get the ball rolling, I’ll start with everything I can tell you about the race for the lord mayoralty.
Melbourne City Council: After serving two four-year terms as lord mayor, John So is not seeking a third. The candidates to watch appear to be former state Liberal leader Robert Doyle; Adam Bandt, the Greens candidate who came within swinging distance of Lindsay Tanner in the seat of Melbourne at last year’s federal election; current councillor Catherine Ng; Will Fowles, who I’m told is from the Labor Left; Peter McMullin, former Geelong mayor and Labor election candidate linked to the party’s Right faction (although his running mate is the none too Labor-friendly Tim Wilson, director of the Institute of Public Affairs’ free trade unit); and Gary Morgan of Roy Morgan Research fame. The latter has helpfully furnished us with his very own opinion poll, which shows Doyle well ahead of Bandt on first preferences with Ng in third place. Second preferences are apparently set to produce a close race for second between Bandt, Ng and Morgan, with none posing a threat to Doyle. Bandt appears not to have done well out of preference recommendations, including those of candidates linked to Labor.
Darebin City Council: Three wards electing three councillors. Hat tip to Martin B and Caroline Church for the following.
Rucker ward: There are two Labor candidates, two Greens (Trent McCarthy and Helen Brown) and five others, only one of whom has much of an independent local profile – Darren Lewin-Hill. The ward is the stronghold of the Labor Unity sub-faction associated with state MPs Theo Theophanous and Nazih Elasmar, and is not being contested by the rival sub-faction of Michael Leighton and Robin Scott, the former and current members for Preston. At corresponding booths in the 2007 federal election, Labor polled 49 per cent of the primary vote, the Greens 31 per cent and Liberal 16 per cent. If those numbers are reflective of this vote, the result should be straightforward: one Labor and one Greens candidate will be comfortably elected, with the third seat going to the other Labor candidate or, less likely, Lewin-Hill if he can gather enough Labor preferences and votes from Liberals.
Cazaly ward: There are 17 candidates, nine of whom identify as Labor members (4 Unity, 4 Socialist Left, one unaligned), plus one Greens, one “conservative independent” (allegedly a former Labor member with a decidedly non-conservative activist history) and six other independents. The Labor candidates include incumbents Vince Fontana, a former mayor and member of the Leighton-Scott faction, and Alison Donohue, who is also receiving Leighton-Scott preferences but is apparently not directly linked. Haphazard preference arrangements suggests their proliferation might be down not to dummy candidates, as one might suspect, but to poor party organisation. Donohue and two other candidates, Ben Morgan and Joe Cutri, seem to have fared the best of the nine on preferences. The corresponding federal booth results were Labor 60 per cent, Liberal 20 per cent and Greens 16 per cent, suggesting Greens candidate Mohammed El-leissy will have to rely on Labor fragmentation to get a look-in.
La Trobe ward: Even more candidates than Cazaly ward, with better organisation lending greater credence to suspicions of dummy candidates. No fewer than 16 candidates recommend some permutation of preferences for Gaetano Greco and Tim Laurence of the Labor Socialist Left, while five candidates recommend preferences for the Unity ticket of Stanley Chiang (another associated of Leighton and Scott) and Tania Sharkas. Also on the receiving end of most Socialist Left preference arranagements is Melissa Salata of the Theophanous-Elasmar sub-faction of Labor Unity, who is hostile to the Leighton-Scott sub-faction. That leaves only the Greens candidate, Sara Scally, and another who recommends a preference to her. The campaign between the Socialist Left and Unity has been bitter: Laurence took internal party action against Chiang (which was dismissed), and there were counter-claims that Laurence broke party rules with his material. The federal election booth numbers here were Labor 62 per cent, Liberal 23 per cent and Greens 8 per cent, suggesting the issue is likely to be how the three seats divide between Socialist Left and Unity.
Banyule City Council: Consists of seven wards in Melbourne’s inner north-east. Olympia ward: Incumbent Anthony Carbines is chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike (and the son of upper house MP Elaine Carbines), and thus unquestionably aligned to Labor. Beale ward: Incumbent Wayne Phillips was the Liberal member for Eltham from 1992 to 2002, when he became one of dozens of victims of the first Brackslide. Ibbot ward: Incumbent Tom Melican is said to be an independent. Hawdon ward: Vacant ward being contested by two Labor members, Sandra MacNeil and Martin Appleby, along with an independent and a Green. Grimshaw ward: Labor incumbent Dean Sherriff is being contested by two fellow party members, Frank Beard and Jess Paul. Sherriff’s career on council was saved in April 2007 when a conviction for criminal damage was overturned on appeal, but he retains a conviction for assault relating to the same incident. Griffin ward: Incumbent Jenny Mulholland challenged by Steve Walpole, a Labor member, and Dora Bergman, a one-time running mate of Mulholland. Bakewell ward: A rematch between Liberal incumbent Peter McKenna and Labor member Michael Paul, following a very close result in 2005. Andrew Landeryou’s VexNews reports that Greens candidate Ian Kirk has raised eyebrows by giving McKenna his second preference. A Greens supporter in comments claims this was in response to Paul’s attitude in preference negotiations, but the Labor camp insists discussions were entirely cordial until Kirk advised he would preference McKenna on the grounds that he was a “serious candidate”.
Glen Eira City Council: Glen Eira has gone against the prevailing trend by changing from postal to attendance voting. This has apparently discouraged dummy candidates, resulting in 26 nominations compared with 61 in 2005. The council consists of three wards which each elect three councillors, with seven sitting councillors seeking re-election. The assessments that follow come direct from Winston in comments. Camden ward: Michael Lipshutz and Helen Whiteside are standing for re-election and appear to be working together with the backing of the Liberal Party – although neither are members. Other candidates include local businessman Frank Penhalluriack (who actually lives in Kew) and a residents group ticket headed by Peter Blight. Lipshutz is a prominent member of the Jewish community and with over one third of the ward Jewish should have no problems getting re-elected. Penhalluriack has number one position on the voting card which will help him. Lipshutz, Whiteside and Penhalluriack are spending big and will probably be elected. Rosstown ward: Nine candidates. Three sitting councillors standing: Margaret Esakoff, Steven Tang and Rob Spaulding. This is the only ward with a Greens candidate – Neil Pilling – who could be the wild card as he is getting some flow of preferences. Tucker ward: Ten candidates, two sitting councillors standing: Nick Staikos (Labor) and Henry Buch (Liberal). Buch may struggle as he only recently joined council on a countback after the resignation of former Mayor David Feldman. Fellow Liberal and former councillor Jamie Hyams has scored number one position and should be elected. The other candidate with a chance is Jim Magee, who lead the fight to save the local swimming pool and polled well in the 2005 election.
Kingston City Council: The council has been reformed from seven single-member wards to three three-member wards. Hat-tip to Deano in comments for the following. North ward: Incumbent councillors Greg Alabaster and Arthur Athanasopolous are likely to be returned, but the third is up for grabs. Contestants are Paul Peulich, son of Liberal MP Inga Peulich, and Liz Larking, a past councillor and former ALP member. Mara Hayler is running for the Greens. Central ward: No fewer than 21 candidates have nominated, included 73-year-old mayor Bill Nixon and councillor Rosemary West. Other candidates include past councillor Ron Brownless, said to have done well out of preference recommendations, and John Natoli, an independent running a “well-organised campaign”. Three candidates have Labor links, including former state upper house MP Noel Pullen. Geoff Heard is said to be a “dark horse” and a “greenie”, although the actual Greens candidate is Dean Andrew. South Ward: John Ronke, incumbent for the Braeside Park ward, is said to be certain to win one of the three seats. Twelve candidates are competing for the other two. They include Donna Bauer, said to have run a “big spending campaign”; Trever Shewan, a former councillor; Carlos Lopez, the candidate of the Greens; Jeremy Nash, a member of the ALP; and Peter Wertheimer, an RSL captain.
Port Phillip City Council: JH writes in comments: “Another interesting council will be Port Phillip with the Unchain crew looking a reasonable chance in Catani Ward (Serge Thomann has been getting lots of press) and MAV boss Dick Gross could have a fight on his hands to be re-elected in Junction Ward. Having said that, I’ve not seen HTVs for anyone, so I don’t know who’s giving what. The Greens are running in every ward bar Albert Park, which is uncontested.”.
Bendigo Shire Council: The Greens have an incumbent mayor here in David Jones, seeking re-election in Kangaroo Flat ward. Another Greens incumbent is former mayor Julie Rivendell of Eppalock ward. The council consists of nine single-member wards: I gather councillors have an annual vote to determine who hte mayor will be for the coming year. The Greens between them have held the position for three of the past four years. North West Plains ward councillor Kevin Gibbins was a Liberal candidate at the 2004 federal and 2006 state elections.
Mount Alexander Shire Council: Commenter Follow the Preferences has high hopes for the Greens here. The council consists of the three-member Castlemaine ward in the centre, which is surrounded by the single-member rural wards of Tarrengower, Calder, Coliban and Loddon. The Greens have one incumbent in Philip Schier of Castlemaine ward, with Jan Garood and Doug Ralph respectively contesting Coliban and Calder.
GG Amigo
enjoyed th description of th link itself , we don’t need fictional drama when reel reality of attempts to run over make dominate Council media
Ron,
But wait, there is even more…………..
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24708027-2862,00.html
jh. Nillumbik like the City of Melbourne at the time had a hybrid system (three single wards plus five Municipal wide -I think)) Both the City of Melbourne and Nillumbik experiments were major failures. When it was reformed it did not undergo a representation review. They adopted a nine single member ward system. Back in the days when it was the Shire of Eltham use to be 4 wards each electing three members (But not under proportional representation. Contrary to your limited understanding of how the elections works I think the way the election is administered is very much on topic. The same as it was the case back in 206 when the the VEC stuffed up the count. The reason and cause of the stuff up was a lack of due diligence and the refusal of the VEC to ensure that the election was open and transparent. the same issue apply to the Local Government elections. As we are moving into the age of electronic computer count we face new challenges and threats to our electoral system. I suggest you start taking a closer look at how it actually works.
D@W,
Enough is an enough, move on to something more interesting than dribbling history to those who care less about it, we are three days out from an election that will change some council’s for the worst, concentrate on the matters at hand, the important one’s
The Main issue confronting the City of Melbourne is the direct election of Lord Mayor. It does not deliver good governance and places the focus on the farce of the Lord Mayor race and not policy or good governance. The Direct election system was introduced by Rob Cameron (Left Minister after a closed door departmental review – submissions made to the review were never made public and it is difficult to know who if anyone supported the proposal to have direct elections – most certainly made a submission in opposition to direct elections as I believe and still do believe that the Mayor/Chairperson should be elected from and by the elected council). I do not see the problem facing the City of Melbourne as being the undivided multi-member single electorate. Whilst I am happy to see a ward system (3 x 3) I would not want to see a return to a single member ward system. But the pressure is on to do just that as a means of stopping the Greens from gaining representation on the Council. I think Melbourne should be bigger in size (Should take in the state seats of Richmond, Prahran, Albert Park and Melbourne) the number of the Councillors should be 15 (5 x 3 or 21 (7 x3) Back in the days when the city of Melbourne had 21 Councillors it was a dynamic Council – but the 3 member wards at the time were elected by an exhaustive preferential system that involved a reiterative single member count. Maybe you do not remember such a system.
Electoral reform is very much part of this campaign. It is very much on the agenda of all candidates. The City of melbourne should have been subjected to a representational review as every other Municipality is required to undertake a review every second term of office. Th City of Melbourne tried to call for a review (3 times) but it was voted down on each occasions by John So, Garry Singer, Catherine Ng, Garry Singer, Carl Jetter and David Wilson. Had they supported it the State Government would have been forced into initiating a review prior to this election. Now we have a circus of clowns. The issue as I have stated is not the elected council but more to do with the Direct election of Lord Mayor. Any review must take the Lord Mayor’s election into account (It is a joke) and hopefully would also consider the bigger issue of a Greater Melbourne. The irony of it all is that it was not labor that was calling for a Greater Melbourne and review of the electoral system but Peter Clarke,a Senior Liberal Party member.
For the record those Councillors that supported a electroal review of the City of Melbourne electoral system included Brian Shanahan, Peter Clrak,Foina Snedden and Green’s Councillor Frazer Brindley. It was voted down on two occasions by the casting vote of the Chairperson.
Lets also not forget that this is the first state wide municpal election under the new electoral systems that are in place. Every Municipality with the exception of Nillumbik and the City of Melbourne has undergone a representation review in the last two years. This will be in many cases the first time some Councils have used Proportional representation or been elected under the new electoral system. In the past Victoria had a three year annual rotation single member ward system. The dynamics of the new system is very much different to that of the past.
William you might like to add to the list Stonington. It has also under gone a change in its electoral system and will now be represented by three wards each electing three members of council. Stonington was the bastion of Liberal conservatism. It takes in the old City of Prahran and Malvern and has one of the most diverse inner city communities. You have Toorak/Malvern with some of the most expensive inner city real-estate in Australia multi million dollar mansions and you also have Prahran/Windsor with vast public housing blocks. Many of the old guard have bowed out. Chris Ghan long time serving Labor Councillor is not contesting his seat having spent over a quarter of a century on Council First as City of Prahran and then later under Stonington. Stonington opposed along with Hobson bay opposed multi member wards supporting a single member ward system.Unlike Hobson bay which also included the former Premier Steve Bracks seat of Williamstown, Stonington ended up with a three by three model and not the nine single member wards they wanted. To this date it is unknown on what basis the VEC commission reviewing municipal representation choose the systems in place. Stonington along with Hobson Bay is also a city to watch.
Ok, more on Darebin.
Rucker ward, where I live does seem quite straightforward. There are two ALP candidates, two Greens candidates and five others, only one of whom has much of an independent local profile – Darren Lewin-Hill. At corresponding booths in the 2007 Federal election, the ALP polled 49% of the primary vote, Greens 31% and Liberals 16%. If those numbers are reflective of this vote then the result should be straightforward: one ALP and one Green candidate will be comfortably elected, with the third seat going to the other ALP candidate or, less likely, Lewin-Hill if he can gather enough of the ALP vote and if enough Liberal voters opt for him.
Cazaly Ward is a dogs breakfast. There are 17 candidates 9 of whom identify as ALP members (4 Unity, 4 SL, one unaligned), plus one Greens, one “conservative independent” (allegedly a former ALP member with a decidedly non-conservative activist history) and six other independents. I don’t think it’s accurate to describe all of the ALP candidates as dummy candidates. If they are its really badly organised, because there is no real consistency in the preference recommendations, not even within the SL and Unity ‘blocs’. They are all over the place, although Ben Morgan and current councillor and former mayor Vince Fontana seem to have done slightly better. There are quite a number of ex-councillors amongst the ALP candidates and someone with longer and more extensive local knowledge than I have would need to say if anyone of them have particularly good profiles. The corresponding Federal booth numbers are ALP 60% Greens 16% Libs 20%. On those numbers you’ld expect the Greens to struggle to get a spot, but the fragmentation of the ALP vote can only help. I’ve got no idea really, but I would guess that the Greens candidate, Fontana and one other ALP candidate will be elected. (Fontana’s brush with the licensing commission didn’t stop his reeelction in 2004 so it would seem to be a non-issue now; Unity member Alison Donohue has also been subjected to faecal-sheeting concerning her former record as a councillor.)
In La Trobe ward there are even more candidates – 23 – but they are far better organized, so the claim of dummy tickets may have validity. A whopping 16 candidates recommend some permutation of preferences for the ALP SL ‘ticket’ of Gaetano Greco, Tim Laurence and Melissa Salata, while 5 candidates recommend preferences for the Unity ticket of Stanley Chiang and Tania Sharkas. That leaves only the Greens candidate and one other who recommends a preference for her. The campaign between SL and Unity has been bitter here, with Laurence taking internal ALP action against Chiang (which was dismissed) and counter claims that Laurence has broken party rules with his material. The 2007 booth numbers here are ALP 62% Greens 8% Libs 23% so with more organisation in the ALP vote and such a low base vote, the Greens wouldn’t seem to have much chance. Unless Liberal supporters vote as a bloc for the Greens or some other candidate, which seems unlikely, then 3 ALP candidates would seem assured here. I have no idea what the local support is like, so I guess 2 SL 1 Unity?
Back there, jh said
I believe that is correct. Before the 2004 election, the SL had one councillor, then mayor Rae Perry. However Perry was defeated by Unity candidate Stephen Tsitas at the 2004 election (which meant that Perry was unable to take up her role as newly-elected VLGA President, although she later acheived appointment as VLGA CEO.) There were rumours Perry was going to stand again this time, but sadly that was ended when she was involved in a serious motorbike accident in September, along with partner Damian Kingsbury.
The ALP isn’t formally endorsing any candidates in Darebin. As a result ALP candidates are supposed to be “ALP supported” but must not use the ALPs name or logo on their election material. This is the basis for the action against Laurence, although he ius not the only one – Diana Asmar’s material also features the logo although I don’t know if there has been any complaints made against her.
One clarification to the above, I don’t believe that Melissa Salata is actually a member of the SL faction, but she is clearly grouping with them in the preference recommendations.
The VLGA is a scam. The sooner Council’s pull out of it the better.
For what it’s worth here’s a summary of Glen Eira.
Glen Eira has 3 wards each electing 3 councillors
Glen Era Council recently made the decision to change from postal to attendance voting. This was unexpected as under the postal system, dummy candidates contributed to the election of several councillors in 2005.
This change has seen nominations drop from 61 in 2005 to 26. 7 of the 9 councillors are standing for re-election.
Camden Ward: 7 candidates. Michael Lipshutz and Helen Whiteside are standing for re-election and appear to be working together with the backing of the Liberal Party – although neither are members. Other candidates include local businessman Frank Penhalluriack (who actually lives in Kew) and a residents group ticket headed by Peter Blight. Lipshutz is a prominent member of the Jewish community and with over one third of the ward Jewish should have no problems getting re-elected. Penhalluriack has no. 1 position on the voting card which will help him. Lipshutz, Whiteside and Penhalluriack are spending big and will probably be elected.
Rosstown ward : 9 candidates. 3 sitting councillors standing – Margaret Esakoff, Steven Tang and Rob Spaulding. This is the only ward with a Greens candidate – Neil Pilling- who could be the wild card as he is getting some flow of preferences.
Tucker ward: 10 candidates. 2 sitting councillors standing – Nick Staikos (Labor) and Henry Buch (Liberal). Buch may struggle as he only recently joined council on a countback after the resignation of former Mayor David Feldman. Fellow Liberal and former councillor Jamie Hyams has scored no. 1 position and should be elected. The other candidate with a chance is Jim Magee, who lead the fight to save the local swimming pool and polled well in the 2005 election.
SNIP: Pointless comment written by stupid person with false perception of how interesting he is deleted – The Management.
I’m very sorry to hear about Rae Perry being in an accident, even if we were not always on the same side. How bad is it Martin?
Big thanks, Winston and Martin, I’ve now knocked together entries in the post based on your comments.
I will be helping hand out HTV cards for one candidate in (the people’s republic of) Moreland on Saturday. I hadn’t been paying much attention to that battle, but judging from what I can tell there’s 20(!) candidates in North East ward … of which 7-9 are dummy candidates for one political party in particular!
Are there wacky winner takes all councils in Victoria like Botany in Sydney?
The Melbourne Greens have come on board and Officially supported the campaign to ensure that the counting of the ballot will be open and transparent and that scrutineers will not be denied the opportunity to properly scrutinise the electronic count.
We welcome the Greens official support even though it is unofficial. We only hope that Bill Lang also excepts the need for the count to be open and transparent.
Under the terms of the Local Government Act ballot papers MUST be presorted into bundles of primary votes as part of a manual count. The problem is that the VEC has the right to vary the procedure any way they see fit under a computerised count. Descension in the absence of regulations.
The Victorian parliament in reviewing the 2006 State Election recommended that ballot papers be presorted prior to batching and data-entry. We support the Parliament’s recommendation and note that there is nothing that prevents the Returning Officer from undertaking a pre-sorting of ballot papers prior to the data-entry process.
It is a question of self regulation and honesty. The Victorian Electoral Commission has an obligation to ensure that the election count is conducted in an open and transparent manner in order to maintain public confidence. The count must be seen and be above board. (The same policy should also apply to the Below-the-line votes in the Council election)
The Offical Unoffical responce to our concerns
The Greens have made an unofficial request to Mr Lang [VEC Returning Officer for teh city of Melbourne] that the VEC bundle the primary votes of the leadership ticket candidates before the data-entry stage. I have reason to believe that Mr Lang will seriously consider doing this despite being under no obligation to do so.
As we are only two days before ‘election day’, but already some months after the contracts for this election were agreed on, we consider it inappropriate to support any calls for an injunction.
We are happy for you to indicate on your blog (without copying any part of this email) that The Greens give in-principle support to the bundling of primary votes of the leadership ticket only.
Best regards,
Rohan
The single-member wards are winner takes all (Banyule, Boroondarra and others).
The multi-member electorates are proportional (a good reform by the Labor government). Before the Local Government act was changed in 2003 the multi-member wards were winner takes all exhaustive preferential voting (and I believe before Kennet`s reforms the councils were elected by thirds each year).
Democracy@work what do you have against the VLGA? I would have thought it was Tully free.
[We are happy for you to indicate on your blog (without copying any part of this email)]
Er, haven’t you done exactly that?
I’m going to dob you in.
I have a slight correction to what I wrote above.
I said that Diana Asmar was using the ALP logo in her election material. Today I scrutinised it closely. In fact she has the southern cross stars from the logo, plus the words (very small) “member of Victorian” (very large) “Labor” in the red square.
So technically she has not used the logo, just two graphic devices that are very, very similar to the logo. Whether using the word “Labor” is tantamount to using the name of the Australian Labor Party is more arguable, but again she is clearly trying to stretch the rules as far as possible.
In Darebin there are some shenanigans going on, as usual. There are eight Labor Unity members of the outgoing council. There was nine but Marlene Kairouz was elected to the Legislative Assembly at the Kororoit by-election and her place was not filled on the Council after her resignation. Personalites and sub-factions determine Darebin ALP political power rather than the factions themselves. Both Michael Leighton, the former MLA for Preston, Robin Scott, the present MLA for Preston, upper house member and until recently a Brumby government Minister Theo Theophanous, and upper house-member Nazih Elasmar are the local powerbrokers. All are good branch-stackers, a complimentary term in the ALP. All run a good organisation at the local level.
Fontana, Kelly, Kairouz, Chiang, Kundevski and Stephenson belong to the Leighton-Scott sub-faction of Labor Unity. Kairouz is no longer on Council. Kelly and Stephenson are not seeking re-election.
Asmar, Salata and Tsitas belong to the Theophanous-Elasmar sub-faction of Labor Unity.
Martin B is incorrect in including Salata with the Left. She is a member of Labor Unity. She was once a close friend of Banyule Councillor Dean Sherriff, an enemy of the Leighton-Scott sub-faction. The confusion probably arose because she is not getting preferences from Labor Unity members aligned with the Leighton-Scott sub-faction and has had to deal with the Left.
A key left candidate is Gaetano Greco, a former roadie for an Elvis impersonator.
Greco once took Salata to the Municipal Electoral Tribunal with support then from the Leighton-Scott sub-faction. Times have changed and all is now forgiven.
The Leighton-Scott bailiwick is Preston, and the it is the two northern wards where the contest is dirtiest. The Theophanous-Elasmar organisation are relatively clean fighters in in the southern Rucker ward, and Leighton-Scott have agreed to keep out of this ward. The main opposition to the ALP in Rucker ward is the Greens, who will certainly win one spot of the three up for election. Darren Lewin-Hill is the best of the Independents, but he will struggle.
An interesting sidelight of this contest is the campaign against Alison Donohue, former Darebin Councillor and arch enemy of Michael Leighton, the former MLA for Preston, although she is a member of Labor Unity. A dirt sheet complains about Donohue’s former performance on Council, but has little to commend it as Donohue was not on Council at the time claimed by the dirt sheet. The person authorising the dirt sheet has denied knowledge of its contents, so it is obvious its production is fraudulent. Donohue this time is getting preferences from the Leighton-Scott sub-faction, but this may be under instructions from Fiona Richardson, MLA for Northcote and wife of ALP State Secretary Steve Newnham. Richardson wants to reduce sub-factional brawling, and distances herself, sensibly, from all of the local party warlords.
The Left is now largely irrelevant in internal Darebin ALP politics except for the fact that non-endorsements mean it has a chance of picking up a spot on the Council. Richardson prefers to see ALP members elected to Darebin Council rather than Greens councillors, as her own seat was threatened by a strong Greens campaign in 2006.
At the previous Council election in Darebin one candidate admitted membership of the Liberal Party. His vote was minimal, but that is probably a reflection of the fact that Liberal organisation in Darebin is negligible. Nick Kotsiras, the able Liberal MLA for Bulleen, is the husband of former Northcote councillor Angela Kotsiras, and no doubt helped her electorally, but it was easier for the Liberals to campaign in smaller wards. One candidate this time is a known Liberal Party voter, and his preferences are helping Leighton-Scott. A former Liberal candidate for Preston in a previous election actually appeared in election literature for Diana Asmar praising her ability as a councillor, and there is nothing wrong with this. It is a pity the Liberal Party has such poor organisation in Melbourne’s Labor heartland. It is the reason for much of the poor infrastructure. The Liberals in government don’t care about a Labor heartland. Labor doesn’t care because it wins anyway.
Ok time to disclose the predictions.
Nothing much has changed from the initial fold up assessment as determined by the negotiated preference deal. 60%of voters will follow the recommended TV card the remaining 40% will not differ too dramitically and given that it is a two way swap for all intensive purposes you can apply an initial analysis of 100% ticket flows. That leaves the big question of magnitude. There are only two possible candidates that can win the Lord Mayor race. Catherine Ng and Peter McMullin.
The Greens are not a contender and Will Fowles is expected to poll less then the Greens and will top up Peter McMullin. The Greens we estimate on 13-15% (They received 9% in 2004 and the Kensington area has added 1 – 1,5% to their vote 14% is generous but not enough to remain in the race. The catch point if Fowles out polls the Greens (not expected). We estimate Fowles to be on 10-12%
Gary Singer 6-9% Catherine Ng 8-12%, Morgan 8-11% Column 6-9%.
The unknown is Doyle. He is expected to get anywhere between 15 to 22% McMullin needs 18-22% primary to be in the race. The groupings Morgan and Column (14 to 18%) Singer and Ng (12 to 20%) Fowles and McMullin 26-30%. Catherine Ng picks up the Green vote (The Greens have preference Catherine Ng, who has close connections to Ted Baillieu, as part of a State preference swap) This will place Ng above Robert Doyle but Doyles vote will split on distribution flowing to McMullin/Wilson team and to Ng 50/50, producing a Ng versus McMullin fight to the end with the outcome within 1-2%. We will know whether our assumptions will hold on Saturday.
Unfortunately in spite the Greens support and their “unofficial” plea – Melbourne City Council’sVEC Returning Office, Bill Lang, has refused to undertake a preliminary sorting of the ballot papers, acting on instructions [QUOTE] “from above”. Which indicates that the returning officer is not really in charge. The decision of the VEC to not undertake a preliminary primary vote distribution flies in the face of the Parliament’s recommendation and demonstrates the inability and unwillingness of the VEC to self-regulate its affairs. As a result the VEC has prevented an open and transparent count. The count will now be hidden behind the the vale of technology and scrutineers denied the right to closely monitor the count. SHAMEFUL
If it is tight, as expected (Within 1.5%), then a recount will be required.
The VEC claim that it will take them 15 seconds to data-entry each vote (This does not include time required for batching and administration of the count). There will be 18 data-entry operators. That’s 12 hours ( 18 x 12) to count 56000 votes. (Expect it to take much longer then that. – It would have been quicker to count manually).
To date, with one day to go, the VEC has received 51176 envelopes back.
Oz 171 This is not my blog but yes I think it is a bit whimpy of the Greens to make an unofficial request and then try and hide it. There is nothing confidential in its content and well people need to know the extent of contempt shown by the VEC for an open and transparent count.the only groups not calling for a preliminary sort is Catherine Ng, Gary Singer and Robert Doyle. They were the same groups that refused to call the City for Melbourne to be subjected to a open review of its representational model. We can only hope they do not get elected – Even though the Greens have preference Catherine Ng which could see her cross the line starting form a low vote base.
Peter McMullin and Tim Wilson have presented their credentials to Melbourne’s business community. McMullin-Wilson team is without doubt the most experienced and professional team in the Lord Mayor’s race offering Melbourne strong leadership and fiscal management.
Robert Doyle has run the most lacklustre campaign of all the main contenders. showing contempt and disengagement from the political process. Doyle is relying on the recognition factor. In the process he has undermined and divided the liberal conservative vote that would have normally been allocated to the likes of Peter Clarke (Gary Morgan) Fiona Snedden (Nick Columb). Doyle appears to be coasting,not taking the elction or the electorate seriously. He is expect to help top up Catherine Ng, who is being backed by Ted Baillieu, in what is shaping to be a close contest with two main players, Catherine Ng and Peter McMullin.
Robert Doyle’s disengagement in the campaign has eroded his initial vote pull expectation. There are some people who think that Doyle may bottom out and receive as low as 12% of the vote. Expectations are that he will attract around 18-20% but that this level of support will not flow on to his Council Ticket which is headed by Carl “jet set” Jetter.
The McMullin Wilson letter should give McMullin that extra edge in his campaign. Voting closed at 6:00PM Friday November 28.
A lot of comments have been made on Vexnews about Michael Freshwater, claimed to be One Nation candidate for the Council of East Gippsland. In his candidate statement Mr Freshwater, a former councillor who was defeated last time, claims he is not a member of any political party.
Mr Freshwater has an important claim to be remembered forever in the history of Victorian politics, yet few people want to know about it. He was One Nation candidate for the Legislative Assembly seat of Gippsland East in 1999, and his preferences were responsible for the election of the Bracks government. Repeat, Steve Bracks, of Lebanese descent, became Premier only because of preferences from the candidate of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, one Michael Freshwater.
Freshwater preferenced Independent Craig Ingram, and those 1000 or so preferences put Ingram above the ALP candidate. Ingram won with the original 1000 prefences from One Nation plus the preferences from the ALP. Had Freshwater preferenced the National sitting member Ingram’s preferences would have been distributed first, and enough of his preferences plus those from Freshwater would have re-elected the sitting National. Ingram went on to support Bracks in the chamber over the incumbent Premier Jeff Kennett.
Landeryou on Vexnews claims that Jenny Mikakos and Gavin Jennings, both MLCs from the ALP Socialist Left, are supporters of Michael Freshwater in his current campaign and ought to be expelled from the ALP. As Freshwater now claims to not be a member of any political party Mikakos and Jennings are not breaking any party rule by supporting him. They are not very politically astute, but they are not committing a hanging offence.
There has also been criticism of Jennings on Vexnews as the Minister for the EPA Stasi. This would not normally be relevant to a local campaign but several candidates in Boroondara have latched on to it.
The EPA operates a dob-in system by which anyone can dob in a motorist throwing cigarette butts out of their car. The East German secret police, the Stasi, operated using informers in much the same way as the Victorian EPA. The Minister for the EPA is called the Minister for the EPA Stasi on the Landeryou blog, and he clearly is. If Freshwater has any brains he will distance himself from Jennings, whose lack of control over his Environment Protection Authority is an absolute disgrace.
A recent documented case involved a fraudulent dob in, and the refusal of the EPA to apologise after withdrawing an infringment notice, is being used against candidates known to be sympathetic to the ALP in the current round of local government elections, for example on the Boroondara Vote Reform blog that is now supporting Krogerite candidates in that municipality, whoever these are.
Vexnews of Andrew Landeryou has got it right in its condemnation of Jennings and his EPA Stasi. To repeat Michael Freshwater is politically stupid in accepting support from Jennings, as claimed in Vexnews.
Steve Bracks, of Lebanese descent, became Premier only because of preferences from the candidate of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, one Michael Freshwater.
Freshwater preferenced Independent Craig Ingram.
What has Steve Bracks ancestry got to do with anything here and I guess you can also attribute the Greens preferences to securing a win for Catherine Ng, Wife of Ted Baillieu advisor, if she wins on Saturday’s count. Sure she claims she is independent when we all know she is not. The fact is the only political party endorsing candidates in Melbourne is the Greens. McMullin-Wilson is, for the first time,a cross ALP-Liberal Ticket which most certainly is independent yet associated from both the Liberal party and the the ALP. Ng has Brian Shanahan running as her lead candidate. Brian,(ALP outsider who is very much on the nose within the ALP), may find he does not collect the same vote shown to his chosen liberal leader Catherine Ng as the vote is not expected to flow down from the leadership ticket to the council ticket in the same proportion. Brian is the sacrificial lamb. In what was seen as payback for the Greens preferencing Ng he has preferenced the Greens in the Council ticket ahead of other ALP members. For those not in the know it was Brian Shanahan that tried unsuccessfully to have the ALP officially endorse candidates. Had they done so he would have lost out in the preselection process. He is not a draw-card and only managed to get elected last time by pig tailing on the back of James Long’s 2004 attempt to win the Lord Mayor’s election by running a host of dummy candidates with the support of Kate Redwood. Kate Redwood also supported Catherine Ng back in 2004 in in return Catherine Ng offered Kate a lucrative contract on the City of Melbourne Library board appreciation for her support.problem was the Local Government Act prohibited ex councillors from being employed by the City of Melbourne. The City Council then made a substantial behind closed doors compensation payment to Redwood for having to cancel her illegal employment contract with under the terms of the Local Government Act was null in void.
This election is the first major local government election where the disclosure of campaign funding and expenditure has to be made. It will be interesting to monitor Catherine Ng returns as it is understood that a number of major development companies who had received preferential treatment in the consideration of their planning applications whilst Ng was chairman of the planning committee.
Hi Caroline
thanks for the extra info.
Yes, you’ll see that I clarified that point in a subsequent post. It is clear that she has dealt with the SL – she recommends preferences for Greco and Laurence, they recommend preferences for her, and thirteen other candidates (mostly SL identified) group the three together at the top of their preferences.
As far as I know, all police forces use informers. I never heard of any police force that did not use informers. Choosing to compare the EPA’s use of informers to the Stasi in particular strikes me as bias.
The contest between multiple ‘Labor’ candidates in Darebin is interesting. It recalls the founding Country Party policy of multiple endorsement where pre-selection was barred and any member could run at elections and the current Tasmanian practice.
This all sounds so student union like.
When will people grow up.
It’s interesting that the three wards have three completely different contests: one orderly; one well organised interfactional stoogefest; and one free-for-all.
Spring Carnival Closing Event
Punters bets close 6:00PM today
An additional 10,000 votes arrived in the mail today.
Punters have until 6:00 PM to place their bets. Sportingbet Australia is offering 5:1 on Catherine Ng. Catherine is the favourite to win the race with Peter McMullin (3.5:1)expected to be the other contender left standing as the horses cross the finish line.
The race guide promises an existing bout and most punters will be hanging to their tickets until the end, with at least three conjunction points where the outcome of the race can be decided.
See the Race Guide anticipated fold up
Further on Cazaly Ward. I suggested above that Fontana and Morgan looked best placed on the preferences. Actually Joe Cutri probably is, and Alison Donohue as well placed as Morgan ahead of Fontana.
Cutri has himself, and 5 others recommending a preference for him ahead of Fontana, Morgan, Donohue or the Greens.
Donohue and Morgan between them have a total of four recommending a preference for them ahead of the others listed, two going Donohue, Morgan, two going Morgan, Donohue.
Fontana has two recommending a preference for him ahead of the others listed.
The Green candidate, El-Leissy has himself and three others recommending a preference for him ahead of the others listed.
The caveat on such messy preferences is that it all depends who you choose as the serious candidates eg thrree of Cutri’s have Kiriakidis before Cutri, and two of El-Leissy’s have Govan before El-Leissy. OTOH if Fontana is out, then one of his goes to Morgan, and one to El-Leissy.
J-D objects to comparisons between the EPA and the Stasi, claiming that all police forces use informers. The comparison is valid. The EPA does operate like the Stasi. An informer makes a complaint to the EPA, the EPA then issues an infringement notice, and the person named on the infringement notice must either pay a fine, elect to go to court, or apply to have the infringement notice withdrawn by making a statutory declaration to the EPA. The EPA frequently will not withdraw an infringement notice, and in this circumstance many people will pay a fine rather than attend court. The EPA complaint mechanism is sometimes called community policing. Community dob-in is a more appropriate term. If the Victoria Police operated like this there would be a public outcry.
A prominent writer on political matters was the victim of a fraudulent infringement notice, and this received some publicity in the Sunday Age. His mistake was not electing to go to court, as he freely admits. The EPA withdrew the infringement notice but would not apologise.
Michael Freshwater in East Gippsland should distance himself from the Minister for the EPA Stasi, Gavin Jennings, or he will commit electoral suicide.
The EPA fines are subject to a real court and are for a legitimate purpose (punishing those who litter not suspected non-communists). The person who reports the littering has to agree to give evidence in court for the report to be processed.
http://www.epa.vic.gov.au/litter/docs/litter_form.pdf
I’ve revised by Darebin entry based on recent comments from Caroline Church and Martin B – thanks for these.
Caroline Church @ 186
Yes, I do, and all the more strenuously following your response, which clearly shows that you have no valid justification for your position. You haven’t even attempted to deny that the use of informers is common to all police forces, for a start. So let’s see what else you’ve got.
Reiterating your assertion does not give it any more merit than it had in the first place.
And this is like the Stasi how exactly? Did the Stasi issue infringement notices? If the Stasi had something against you did you have the options of paying a fine, going to court, or applying for a review? I think not. People in the GDR were not so lucky, I’m afraid.
So in fact what you have done is say ‘The EPA does operate like the Stasi’ and then go on to show, in detail, how the EPA does not operate like the Stasi.
Oh, epic fail! The Victoria Police does in fact operate in exactly the same way! The Victoria Police issues infringement notices and the people who receive them have the choices of paying a fine, applying for a review, or going to court. Check it out on their website if you don’t believe me.
And I suppose you’re going to tell us that no other police force or law enforcement or regulatory agency in the world in history has ever wrongly penalised anybody–except for the solitary instances of the EPA and the Stasi. Again, I think not.
I have better things to do with my time than argue with J-D.
The political writer mentioned received an infringement notice in the mail fining him on the basis of a report from an unknown member of the community stating that he had thrown a cigarette butt out of the window of his car.
The political writer does not smoke.
At the time of the alleged offence the political writer had bought a pair of glasses in Northcote, some distance from the place where the alleged offence occurred, and had a credit card receipt to prove it.
The political writer had to spend time making a statutory declaration and the EPA withdrew the infringement notice.
They did not apologise.
Many members of the community make complaints which are false. The police will not investigate as they see the matter as trivial. The EPA are concerned with revenue. They will probably not go to court if they are challenged, as they stand to lose heavily if they are unsuccessful. They are not concerned with investigating false allegations.
It a member of the community who does the dobbing. Not the police. In court it is necessary for the prosecution to prove its case. Not so with the EPA.
The EPA are a Stasi operation, whatever J-D says.
Whatever your complaints are about a regulatory authority acting on the basis of statutory declarations from the public – and I have no doubt a case can be mounted – it does no credit to your argument to trivialise the crimes of the Stasi in that way. The Stasi tortured and shot people. The EPA, for all their faults, does not.
Speaking of brute-force and intimidation, it appears a few of the Labor Right lackeys are getting tetchy about the MCC results.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/threat-guards-for-melbourne-lord-mayor-vote-20081128-6mw1.html
MelbCity, you’re famous. I’d suggest going down to Stonnington and scrutineering there to see something slightly more undemocratic.
This one is even better:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24720208-2862,00.html
My favourite bit is “Mr van der Craats has not been appointed as a scrutineer by me and has nothing to do with my campaign.”
NOTE: This comment has been heavily edited to make it less ridiculous – The Management.
The EPA does not act on the basis of statutory declarations from the public. A dobber does not make a statutory declaration in reporting to the EPA. It is the alleged offender who must make a statutory declaration.
You say that the EPA doesn’t torture or shoot people. They might not shoot people, but I’m not sure it was the Stasi who shot people leaving East Germany. It was another branch of the people’s police. East Germany was not like Nazi Germany and did not execute for most crimes … SNIP
This has veered way off-topic, but you should check the legislation: the form submitted by a complainant is, by law, a statutory declaration, and false complaints are thereby subject to appropriate provisions of the Evidence Act.
While I disagree with you Martin B on this issue it is not what the EPA Stasi legislation says but the way it is enforced. There is no case of a fraudulent dobber in Victoria ever being taken to court. That is the real issue.
This matter is now closed and I suggest you use Vexnews Martin B as Andrew Landeryou has an interest in this topic and, unlike you, he is sympathetic to my claims. I thank the anonymous person on Vexnews for his or her support.
Local government counting has commenced, except in the five municipalities with attendance voting. Glen Eira has introduced attendance voting to reduce dummy candidates. It is nonsense to say it has worked. Proportional representation reduces dummy candidates, for the aim of a candidate is to obtain a quota. Candidates under proportional representation (all except single member wards) should ensure they have at least one running mate. A running mate is not a dummy. Vacancies are filled by a countback and if the place of a councillor becomes vacant the running mate is likely to fill the place of the vacated councillor.
This is sensible. To give an extreme example, and that is Boroondara, a leafy suburb in which no member of the ALP claiming to be such would win any ward. If the VEC had introduced proportional representation (a campaign orchestrated by the then CEO Peter Johnstone and supported by Jeff Kennett and, sadly, former ALP Legislative Assembly Speaker Ken Coghill) the ALP might win one place in the ward that includes the low income Asburton area. If that place became vacant a by election for one vacancy in the whole of the ward would result in a victory for a Liberal supporting councillor. In a countback the ALP would most likely retain its representation.
The Boroondara Council has a number of overt Liberals running for most of its ten single member wards. The ALP has a chance in only one ward, Solway, which covers the Asburton area. No ALP member is running as such but Kevin Chow, an ALP member, is likely to win. The previous councillor in the area who is not re-contesting, Mary Haliklia-Byrnes, is a member of the ALP also.
The same logic would apply in other municipalities but I will give as an example Darebin where the position is reversed. Darebin from today will have three three-member wards. The Greens will almost certainly win one spot in Rucker ward. If the elected Green resigned another Green, his running mate, would almost certainly win on a countback. If a by election were held to fill the vacancy from the ALP would certainly win and the Greens would possibly lose their representation on Darebin Council.
I hope I have made this clear. A dummy candidate is a stooge candidate and exists only to funnel preferences to a preferred candidate. The ALP is very good at doing this in single member wards and the Liberals have done it too. There are two examples in single member wards in Boroondara where certain Liberals have run as many as six dummies. A running mate is a genuine candidate who, if unsuccessful, is prepared to serve should the place of the successful allied candidate becomes vacant. A dummy candidate is not there to win. Some do but that’s another story. A running mate or allied candidate is not there to funnel votes but as a part of a multi member ward group.
That said there are dummy candidates in multi member wards, and in Moreland and one ward in Darebin this is the case. It is more difficult to establilsh who is or might be a dummy in a multi member ward, but running dummies in such wards is senseless as the aim, as I said above, is to achieve a quota and it is better for candidates to aim to get a quota rather than rely on dummies.
Caroline Church @ 196
I disagree with your assessment. The subjective and specious argument of “Dummy” candidates applies to both multiple member and single member electorates. As to who is to decide who is a dummy candidate or not is very very dubious. Apart form that it is any persons democratic right to nominate for election to public office. We do not have a system like that in Iran where candidates are vetted by a select panel of jurists or media.
I would argue for example that the Greens in Melbourne who ran a full ticket that the candidates at number 2 or higher in their preference list are all dummy candidates, non of which will get elected. Are they dummies? Added to the ballot paper so as to give the impression that the Greens had a team. The same argument applies top all other parties/groups. OK Melbourne is the only municipality that has above-the line Senate style voting. But there is an argument that all candidates running for Melbourne are dummies.
I assume that the same may apply for all other municipalities.
I would also add that I think the criteria used by the VEC in determining which municipalities had multi-member wards and which had single member wards was dubious to say the least. There is no consistent logic in their assessment.
Why did Hudson Bay have single member wards and Stonnington multi-member? Was it purely the fact that Steve Bracks was the local member at the time?
You also need to remember that prior to the Bracks Government reforms municipalities in Victoria had 3 member wards BUT the method of elections was a reiterative exhaustive preferential count. Where the same voters elected all three members of Council. In come cases one third were elected annually (1 per ward per year). The main drawback and argument for multi-member wards is the size of the ward and the costs involved in running a campaign to have someone elected. In contrast there is little to suggest or argue that local geographic interest rate a community of interest.In the final outcome the decision of a council are made as a whole and not on a electorate basis. That being the case should not the the council be elected as a whole?
I should hope so. You should have better things to do with your time than defend the indefensible. You have, after all, no substantive response to the points I made.
Presumably because you have no legitimate response to the points made against you. I’m perfectly happy to leave it at that.
Just in case anybody else has been confused about the essential logical point by your irrelevancies, it is this: in order to show that the EPA is like the Stasi, it is insufficient to demonstrate that there is something wrong with the way the EPA operates. For all I know, your criticisms of the EPA are completely legitimate, but that isn’t the point. If you had said ‘the way the EPA operates is monstrous and the legislation ought to be changed’ I would never have dreamed of arguing with you. It’s only the comparison with the Stasi which I contested, and this is the point which you have completely failed even to attempt to justify.
The City of Melbourne count is labouriously proceeding as the numerous electoral offials proceed to deflap and open ballot paper envelopes. We are told that there are all up around 61300 envelopes received. The VEC could not provide an accurate figure as such we are left with an approximation only.
In the absence of a preliminary sorting of ballot papers as is the case in a Federal Election it is virtually impossible to properly scrutinise the ballot, The VEC rejected the recommendations made the the State Parliament that ballot papers be resorted into primary votes prior to data-entry. So it is now left to a random sampling process.
Whilst it is still too early to give an accurate trend indications are that Robert Doyle is receiving 20% of the vote sampled to date. In a surprise, yet welcomed outcome, Gary Singer from Team Melbourne is doing better then expected and could outpoll his running mate Catherine Ng. The combined vote of Singer and Ng, who preference each other, would be greater the the Greens. This could prove interesting as Shelly Roberts also tops up Singers vote before being distributed to McMullin. Singer could retain the vote and out poll McMullin. If this trend holds then we could see Gary Singer take Catherine Ng place rising above the chorus and becoming the lead vocal. His main competition would be Robert Doyle. Doyle’s campaign was noted for his absence from the campaign, relying purley on the name recognition factor.
Now I am not a Doyle backpacker, you understand, I think he would be a distater for Melbourne (Mainly due to his choice of deputy lord mayor and his lead candidate in the Council ballot)
Again the information available is too patchy and too few to determine the outcome overall. The count is not open and transparent, But we will keep you posted as results and trends become more clear.
Thank you J-D for agreeing with me that there is something wrong with the government agency debate over which is now closed. I disagree that I have no legitimate response but all the points on the matter that needed to be made have been made. There is no need to get personal. Let’s leave it at that.
I think we should go back to local government elections. In particular Michael Freshwater in East Gippsland, who according to Vexnews is being supported by a person I referred to earlier, but I do not wish to go back to arguing with J-D and Martin B anymore as, to repeat, I have made all the points I think needed to be made. I suggest J-D and Martin B go to Vexnews or Slanderyou2 if they wish to argue any more, but not on here.