Essential Research: 61-39

The latest two-week rolling online panel survey by Essential Research shows federal Labor retaining its record 61-39 lead from last week, although the preferred prime minister gap has narrowed from 41 per cent to 35 per cent. Tellingly, the government’s handling of the financial crisis has the favour of 63 per cent of respondents against 18 per cent disapproving, compared with 31 per cent and 35 per cent for the opposition. Also covered are attitudes to the US presidential race.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

861 comments on “Essential Research: 61-39”

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  1. I’m loving the explosion about what Rudd said on the phone. ABC news in Perth didn’t mention it, and Turnbull didn’t feature either. Julie Bishop had a 5 sec soundbite, but that was more her being the only notable WA federal Liberal, pushing her ugly mug into a state story. Rudd was in a school and Uhlmann made some joke about a horse. I think there’s some kind of horse festival happening soon. 😉

    Here’s a thought, by the way. The Libs did very well in WA at the 2007 election – they’ve got 11 MHR’s here. Apart from Bishop, where are they all? Randall and Jensen pop up occasionally, apart from that… nothing. (Seen Mal Washer lately?) Not what I would have expected from what’s currently the jewel in their crown.

  2. Who gives a toss about all this? Bush is a political corpse awaiting cremation. No-one cares what he did or didn’t say. I thought the topic of this thread was a poll showing LABOR ON SIXTY-ONE PERCENT IN THE MIDDLE OF A FINANCIAL CRISIS FOR CHRISSAKE. Doesn’t anyone think that worthy of comment??

  3. Itep, you may want to question the so called information with which you are provided. It may not be information.

  8. Gp, we are on the eve of another big interest rate cut, probably more than your mates in the Murdoch press have been tipping and you want to nit pick. Rudd is talking about the road to recovery, the Liberals have been hell bent into talking up a recession.

  9. No 158

    Rubbish steve. You’re clearly full of double standards. Rudd says economy will be tough, painful and ugly; but that’s not talking down the economy…. hypocrite, much?

  11. 148 cuppa – true there is an out there, but “philosphical position” is pretty weak compared with
    [The Government should rethink its roll back of workplace relations reforms,]

    Turnbull had it dead in that it wasn’t an issue in the news – ansd was giving Gillard nothing/little to talk about. Julie B has just given Gillard her first Dorthy D next week.

  13. No 160

    They dealt with the Asian financial crisis, they dealt with Labor’s criminally negligent $96 billion of debt, they dealt with the drought, they dealt with the global financial decline after 9/11. Your posturing is replete with meaningless platitudes.

  14. Grog

    Putting Keenan’s admission that they still “hold to a philosophical position on IR” together with Bishop’s “they should rethink its rollback”, it is clear to me that they are intent on re-imposing back SerfChoices if they should ever get back into government.

    They say WorkChoices is dead, but that only refers to the name, the brand, which they killed off before the election.

  15. No 162

    Nevermind ltep; HSO does not believe in free speech, does not believe in freedom of the press and does not believe in government criticism.

  17. Itep @ 55:

    [Because the office could’ve leaked an untrue version of the conversation to the press. If their office is definitely not the source of the story Rudd could easily say so.]

    Jeezus Itep, for someone who, on the last thread, said explicitly that he thought this Phonegate thingmy was probably all made up, you sure hang onto a non-story like a dog guarding a bone.

    What is it with youse wingnuts? Can’t get used to the fact you lost? Think Labor is permanently unsuitable for office? Reckon the polls are always (and all) wrong? KRudd’s a dud or something? Wake up to yourself and try to be constructive, or failing that, at least a human being for a change. That’d be nice (if unlikely).

  18. Have to say the Lib primary vote in this poll of 31% seems very bloody low.

    Not exactly the boost Turnbull would have been promising the faithful. Still, early days.

    He can fall lower 😆

  20. No 164

    Cuppa, Ms Bishops musings from earlier this year are inconsequential. There is now a new leader of the party and for all intents and purposes, Workchoices is dead. Yes, the Liberal Party philosophically supports liberalised labour markets, but it did not get popular support.

  21. Gp, interest rates are lower now than when Howard was elected initially and when he left office. What happened to interest rates will always be lower under the coalition? Tell me about meaningless platitudes why don’t you?

  22. [They say WorkChoices is dead, but that only refers to the name, the brand, which they killed off before the election.]

    I agree – and I bet my super that will be the ALP’s line all the way till 2010.

  25. Bushfire Bill I’m over discussing that issue and think everyone else was hours ago. I am not a Liberal Party supporter but cheers to you if you want to believe so.

  26. No 171

    Admit that Rudd is talking down the economy, then we’ll talk. Meanwhile, back at the ranch…if it walks like a hypocrite, talks like a hypocrite, it is a hypocrite.

  27. Itep, no clearly not. Go and have a sleep, I’m certainly going to do just that. The wee three legged cat has been a little more civil in his behaviour this evening. A benefit to us all.

  28. [Huh, I’ve now heard it all…Bushfire Bill proclaims someone is not human if they criticise the government.]

    Human beings are sentient, GP. They can add up and construct logical thoughts. Itep wasn’t criticising the government, he was hanging onto a nothing story like a dog with a bone.

    Dogs with bones can only growl and make other inscrutible noises, signifying nothing.

  29. Generic Person at 170 wrote:

    [Ms Bishops musings from earlier this year are inconsequential]

    Well, they’re not musings from earlier this year, but from earlier today.

    [“The Government should rethink its roll back of workplace relations reforms,” she said.]

    ABC News, 3 November 2008
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/03/2408968.htm?section=justin

    Very consequential, given the currency of her never-changing attachment to IR extremism.

  30. I disagree with Itep in some areas, but I don’t think he’s a Liberal supporter, let alone some kind of hack that spouts the talking points day after day… like some.

  32. Itep @ 175:

    [I am not a Liberal Party supporter but cheers to you if you want to believe so.]

    Oh, for Christs’s sake, Itep, so you think we actually came down in the last shower?

  34. So, yet another poll, taken during a time where the economy appears to be going down the gurgler, and the ALP is so far ahead in the polls as to be almost emabarrasing.

    This has got to be an “outlier”, but ALL the polls have the forces of goodness and light well ahead of the forces of evil, darkness and gaffe. This poll is the perfect salt for their wounds i think and from recent performance’s Turnbull and Bishop deserve it. Idiots!

    Seems that the Fibs are letting the OO set their agenda latley, which is pretty poor form considering they are supposedly the alternative government. Still, if this is the way they are behaving now, what if the polls dont “narrow” appreciably by say, this time next year??

    I think thats likely if interest rates keep coming down, and Australia is obviously doing better than other economies. Unemployment will be a problem, but at least those who still have jobs wont be being screwed over by SerfChioces (my favorite too Oz) during a labor market downturn. The ALP will be able to play that one really well, particularly if Bishop (bless her!!) keeps bringing it up. Not that she has long left in the ministry. Her kind of political incompetance they can only afford if they are resigned to multiple terms in opposition.

  35. Unfortunately for you Bushfire Bill (and probably most other people here) I will decide what I think is a ‘nothing story’. If other people wish to ignore me they can do so.

  37. No 185

    BB’s had quite a night. Calling people dogs, subhumans and other atrocities just for having the audacity to criticise the government.

  39. Whatever BB, it may be easy for you to dismiss everyone who criticises the government as Liberal stooges but that’s the fastest way back to the Opposition benches.

  41. [BB’s had quite a night. Calling people dogs, subhumans and other atrocities just for having the audacity to criticise the government.]

    I don’t think BB objects to anyone criticising the Government. He seems more concerned about the corrupting of the political process by this beat up.

  42. [Calling people dogs, subhumans and other atrocities just for having the audacity to criticise the government.]

    Sure beats treating them as dogs, treating them as sub-humans and a number of other atrocities for having the audacity to criticise the government.

    Ooh how’s that for sneaking Abu Ghraib into a thread about a poll.

  44. After the 1993 election, when the voters rejected the GST (Hewson version), Howard piously told us all that the Libs accepted the verdict of the voters and would never ever introduce a GST. We know what happened when he got in. Smashing the unions is far closer to the core beliefs of the Liberal Party than the GST ever was. If they get back in in 2010, or 2013, or 2345, whatever they say now and whatever they say in the campaigns, son-of-WorkChoices will rise from the grave as soon as they are sworn in. This is an agenda they will *never* give up on – otherwise what’s the point of being in politics at all? I give the Libs credit for ideological consistency: they believe what they believe. They are just choosing to lie about it at the moment, just as Howard lied about the GST.

  46. Steve
    I think most here share your concerns

    btw worstchoices is my favourite term,for obvious reasons 🙂
    though saying that serfchoices encapsulates the master/slave nature of the fib approach to IR

  48. Generic Person admitted:

    [the Liberal Party philosophically supports liberalised labour markets]

    That of course is Liberal Party code for handing employers the means to cut the pay, conditions and job security of our kids and coming generations. Integral to this is legislatively strangling unions, to thus remove any chance of fairness in the workplace, leaving workers atomised, on their own to “negotiate” with powerful employer interests.

    Yep, we know all that. That’s why youse were booted out, and why (I expect) Labor will continue to remind the people in the years ahead of your agenda.

  50. No 194

    Here we go again. Does the fact that Howard took his change of mind to an election ever spring to mind when you mouth off about the GST?

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