Essential Research: 61-39

The latest two-week rolling online panel survey by Essential Research shows federal Labor retaining its record 61-39 lead from last week, although the preferred prime minister gap has narrowed from 41 per cent to 35 per cent. Tellingly, the government’s handling of the financial crisis has the favour of 63 per cent of respondents against 18 per cent disapproving, compared with 31 per cent and 35 per cent for the opposition. Also covered are attitudes to the US presidential race.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

861 comments on “Essential Research: 61-39”

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  1. It’s interesting that the Opposition have a net negative for their handling of the ‘financial crisis’. I know from my speaking with people that they haven’t been happy with the Opposition claiming they support the Government’s action and then complaining about everything.

    I think one thing we can probably gather within the next couple of polls if this ‘trend’ continues is that Malcolm Turnbull isn’t the political mastermind he was made out to be. I’ve always said he will not cut it with the general public so will be interested to see where this will go.

  2. Interesting: that must mean a full 50% of regular Liberal voters approve of Rudd/ Swan’s handling of the crisis.

    The figures also indicate Talcum not only made a mess of it; people have noticed him doing it too.

    Read and weep, Talcum.

  3. I should actually correct my previous comment by adding that the large number of people ‘undecided’ about the Opposition’s response to the ‘crisis’ indicates that the Opposition haven’t been able to present a clear idea of what their policy is.

    On another topic, Rudd comments on Bush conversation leak:

    “Mr Rudd would not confirm if the source of the story came from his office.

    “On the source of individual stories … there are multiple conversations with multiple people from political offices and elsewhere which leads to the construction of a story,” he said.”

    Well if that isn’t obfuscation I don’t know what is!

  4. kev returns fire
    “Instead, he said in Brisbane today that Mr Turnbull had been “jumping up and down about alliance politics” and he was the one who needed to apologise.
    “My call on Mr Turnbull and the Liberal Party is to apologise to Senator Obama for those remarks, for those statements,” Mr Rudd said.
    “It is extraordinary that one side of politics could make such extraordinarily partisan remarks.”

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24594569-5013871,00.html

  5. It’s clear as to what happened with that phone call. Some clown at that gathering has joked about bush not knowing what the G20 was and Mitchell, sensing a way to make mischief, has reported it as fact. It didn’t happen. Case closed, move on.

  6. “I should actually correct my previous comment by adding that the large number of people ‘undecided’ about the Opposition’s response to the ‘crisis’ indicates that the Opposition haven’t been able to present a clear idea of what their policy is.”

    Perhaps because the Libs have no policies, they just jump at whatever can draw them a headline. It’s been the Lib trademark since December 2006 – throw anything and everything at the immensely popular Rudd in the hope that some mud eventually sticks.

  7. Someone was saying the other day that Downer should be off-limits for political comment these days cos he’s a diplomat and no longer in politics.

    Well, seems he is still playing politics, judging by his appearance on Libsiders yesterday, with his hissy “demand” that there be an enquiry into who said what about Bush.

    So as far as I’m concerned it’s open season again on Lexie – politically anyway.

    (William, does the post at number 9 meet your requirements for value-adding?)

  8. GP you’re blinded by your allegiance.

    From day one of Rudd, the Libs have thrown anything and everything at the immensely popular Rudd in the hope that some mud eventually sticks.

  9. Pretty Labor optomistic polls from this group, makes you wonder just how far they are from reality.

    When the LNP lost the election I was most encouraged by Turnbull’s comments about a number of Howard policies being dead. He spoke like a real moderate and sensible person. If he had continued on in the same vain without the move to slash and burn political opportunism, criticism for its own sake, the direct attacks on decent public senior servants going about their jobs and so forth he may well have done much much better. It must be some sort of envy that Rudd generates in Liberal politicians that they can’t stop themselves going down the hate and spite path.

    Rather than representing a new type of Liberal Party politician he has followed the same old dirty path. He is in the process of trashing his brand with many though his vast stable of media remoras help to confuse the truth.

  10. I don’t think U-Turnbull is not “trashing” the brand. After the WorstChoices fiasco it wouldn’t be easy to trash it much further than it already has been. What he’s doing is consolidating its reputation for the politics of attack and smear.

  11. on the 4 30 pm news they’ve said that Rudd absolutely denies that the remark was ever made and he has no idea where it came from, sounds like another lib dirty trick to me–re the pamphlets fiasco, as for dolly Downer –theres nothing sadder than yesterdays man trying to prove himself still relevant, {not that he ever was.}

  12. Hah, I also heard Rudd on the ABC news specifically deny the remark was ever made. Hope that turkey Uhlmann now eats crow.

  13. Downer played politics on the weekend basically criticism Rudd over the ‘leaked’ phone call (as if he didn’t know it is B/S). He really shouldn’t be slagging his boss like that for a start. But in his typical spite mode as he is when it comes to Kevin Rudd he couldn’t avoid some snide comments.

    But the real disgrace with Downer is that he was Minister for Foreign Affairs when Howard openly trashed the Obama and the Democratic party and, if anything was going to put an alliance at risk it would be that sort of premeditated hostility to the man likely to be the next President and the ruling party of the US.

    Where was Downer’s comdenation of that? There was none and what we got instead was Downer standing up for the disgraceful campaign tactics the Republicans have been using. Downer is the man of shame, willing to support harming relations with the USA in order to play partisan politics for the Republicans. Does Downer have even the smallest amount of credibility.

    So at the end of the day Rudd was the better diplomat out performing Downer and got the better posting, he out performed him as Opposition leader and made it as PM. Downer eventually got his success in the dimplomatic circles by being given it by the man who soundly beat him at everything.

  14. “When the LNP lost the election I was most encouraged by Turnbull’s comments about a number of Howard policies being dead. He spoke like a real moderate and sensible person. If he had continued on”

    The problem is, unlike the old days, the party dictates the leader, not the other way around. Turnbull represents the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party does not represent Turnbull.

    A vote for the Libs is a vote for the conservative-stacked party that Howard assisted in.

  15. Also interesting in this poll is the disapproval rating for the Coalition’s handling of the GFC. Don’t suppose they’ll learn though.

  16. Judith I think the OO ABC and Alan Jones type shock jocks are the only ones pushing this nonsence. They are getting more shrill the more they are ignored and their lie isn’t getting any traction.

  17. Good grief, PM has just had Mesmerelda on, criticising Rudd for not squashing the story the weekend before last when it was published and for seriously damaging the U.S. alliance. I saw or heard of it being denied at least twice last week, the first time on Monday.

  18. lefty e, I had not realised that Galbraith had crossed paths with Eddixinder. Sounds like he had him sussed.

  19. I doubt plagiarist Mesmerelda has a leg to stand on when demanding Rudd attribute something to its correct source. It’s something she serially fails to do.

  20. [PM has just had Mesmerelda on]

    Like anyone listens to a thing she says now anyway. Probably got a staffer to write up her talking points.

  21. Does anyone remember the “good old days” when the Libs used to get 50% plus of the TPP. It’s true.

    Oh, and twelve months ago, John Howard was PM.

    My how the world changes!

  22. GG
    “Oh, and twelve months ago, John Howard was PM.”

    I have only just got over the nightmares. I still cringe when I hear the term “the government said” but then realise its now Labor not the fibs in power.

  23. Gusface @ 29 –

    [I have only just got over the nightmares. I still cringe when I hear the term “the government said” but then realise its now Labor not the fibs in power.]

    Same here. The habit of 11 years is hard to break.

  24. Tp,

    Actually agree very much with your comments. Downer is way out of line if he is making partisan Party comments while enjoying the largesse of a Government sponsored appointment.

    Not across all the facts, but prima facie he should be facing the sack.

  25. lefty e, no wonder they sent him to Cyprus, though I don’t see why the Cypriots should have to suffer him.

  26. G.G. @ 27, that’s rather cruel, you know? That eleven plus years was nothing short of ghastly in the extreme. The only thing Howard did in his entire time in office that I agreed with, was get rid of the guns after Port Arthur. No, two things, the second being sowing the seeds of destruction of the Liberal Party in its current form.

  27. Ooohhh the agony of sitting in a car, listening to ‘our Canberra correspondent’ on ABC radio (some woman who’s name I didn’t recognise) saying that parts of a conversation with George Bush and Rudd had been leaked, that GB hadn’t known what the G20 was, that Rudd had categorically denied that Bush had ever said that, but, given Rudd’s expertise in foreign affairs, it really was embarassing for him that this had happened!!

    So, in other words – it was a rumour, it’s been denied, but how silly of the PM to do it!

  28. [the real disgrace with Downer is that he was Minister for Foreign Affairs when Howard openly trashed the Obama and the Democratic part]

    The real disgrace was Downers remark that “He was sick of visiting busted arse countries”.

    Thing is he never mentioned which countries he thought had prostituted themselves so much as to end up being worthy of his description of a busted arse country.

    Downer visited many countries during his time, Howard was only interested in the USA, was pretty xenophobic about most other countries, and was happy to keep Downer away from Australia and for that matter the USA. He didn’t care what damage Downer did to relations with the other countries, for the big issues he just pushed Downer aside and handled then himself.

    Now that Downer is out of politics he may care to repair some of the damage by disclosing just which countries met his criteria of busted arse.

    Will give the current administration some help in understanding which damaged relationships they have to repair.

  29. dawson, I share your pain. This issue has had me just about apoplectic, mostly about the ABC, and about parts of the ABC that I had previously taken seriously, such as PM and AM.

  30. For the ABC to report this story AT ALL, given that it has been denied by both parties, is a sign that their standards of journalism have seriously declined.
    For the ABC to report this story AS IF IT HAS CREDIBILITY, given that it has been denied by both parties, is simply disgraceful.
    My spouse has a theory that the poor standards of ABC programming and reporting (especially out here in the sticks) is a Liberal party conspiracy — we’ll get to the stage where we’ll be BEGGING that the ABC be taken off the air, it’s that bad.
    I can’t even begin to describe the dismal programming on local ABC radio. A few weeks ago, the lines were opened and people encouraged to ring in to give their opinion on portion sized packets of cat food versus cans.
    I kid you not.

  31. Yep, time to delouse the ABC board of liberal party stooges – appoint some people who know something about programming and journalism for a change.

  32. I don’t think you understand the point of the story. It doesn’t matter whether the statement made is something that really occurred. It’s where the story stemmed from. Has someone from Rudd’s office leaked a version of the conversation (true or untrue) to the media?

    Rudd has not denied that the source of the story is from his office. In fact when asked he said this:

    “”On the source of individual stories … there are multiple conversations with multiple people from political offices and elsewhere which leads to the construction of a story,” he said.”

    It’s hardly a categorical denial that the source of the story was from his office. Therefore we have the possibility that Rudd’s office leaked an untrue version of the conversation to the press in order to provide a puffed up image of Rudd to the press.

  33. No 42

    Dawson, the PM obfuscated and the ABC reported. I cannot believe the feigned indignation about the ABC everytime there is criticism of the Government. Get over it – it’s call democracy and the free press.

  34. dawson,

    Great example of the dumbing down of a great Australian institution. I can well undesratnd the balance between different aspects of Australian Culture whether that be gardening, politics, books or day to day hum drum. But whatever they do, must be done with professionalism and integrity.

    How about a forum on PB about the ABC. It’s always political and never far from the hearts of most PBers.

  35. I believe that the Opposition have bungled their response to the GFC and other current financial matters. As I posted about a week ago, two old age pensioners told me that they were sure Malcolm Turnbull was opposed to the cash handout they were looking forward to so much and so gratefull to Mr Rudd for giving it to them.
    I spent some time assuring them their windfall was not in jeopardy, but they remained very concerned and consequently very miffed at the opposition and Turnbull in particular.
    While I cant see how these people came to the conclusion they did, my guess is that Turnbulls consistently switching between bipartisanship and blanket opposing has just been confusing among the less sophisticated pensioners and perhaps others.
    Normally I wouldnt give too much weight to the opinion of just two people, but these two are habitues of Pensioners Clubs and other gatherings that swap both information and gossip.

  36. Itep, the supposed story has been denied three times. The first time was Monday week ago. The latest today when the PM said it was factually incorrect in the substance of what was reported. I’ve no idea what they think they are doing, other than lazy journalism. I expect more of the ABC, and particularly programs such as AM and PM. Why would you continue with a story such as this? Why should Julie Bishop, unchallenged, get to speak lies as if it’s the truth, on national, supposedly impartial programs? This government may well, and does need to be held to account, for its actions and the effects of same. An ABC that is either incompetent or under resourced to do its job, is to the detriment of us all.

  37. HSO they have not denied that the source of the story, that is the details of the conversation were provided by the Prime Minister’s office. That is the real story here. Why? Because foreign leaders ought to have confidence the details of their confidential conversations aren’t going to be provided to the press.

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