Essential Research: 61-39

The latest two-week rolling online panel survey by Essential Research shows federal Labor retaining its record 61-39 lead from last week, although the preferred prime minister gap has narrowed from 41 per cent to 35 per cent. Tellingly, the government’s handling of the financial crisis has the favour of 63 per cent of respondents against 18 per cent disapproving, compared with 31 per cent and 35 per cent for the opposition. Also covered are attitudes to the US presidential race.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

861 comments on “Essential Research: 61-39”

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  1. Sheridan has been at the crystal ball again (the one that you shake & snow flies around inside) and is able to foretell Obama’s future domestic and foreign policy, especially as it related to Australia. Similar to Turnbull in some ways. Took me 3 hours to read this as you can onle take it in small doses. Example here! I wonder if it is chocolate?

    [ Therefore the most likely Obama position will ultimately be a giant fudge: a commitment, perhaps, to an aspirational target far off in the future, a certain amount of money for new green energy technologies, but little real action. The confusion, bad faith, shoddy arguments, symbolic posturing and general dishonesty surrounding this issue are so pervasive, and the international goodwill towards him so great, that Obama may get away with that kind of fudge.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24617886-7583,00.html

  2. Well it is not as though we didn’t expect the neocon press to go to work undermining the credibility of Obama. How on earth can this idiot make predictions about someone he hardly has any data on. It is the same tactic they are trying on Rudd, try to undermine what he does by saying he isn’t doing anything.

    We are going to get a vicious rear guard action trying to save the right-wing past. There will be a flailing of limbs in agony, a gnashing of teeth, predictions of gloom and doom as these ancient creatures gradually go under.

    I think one of the casualties of the last 8 years should also be the murdoch press and all others of their ilk. A dishonest right-wing media have been just as bad for the world as the ones they have championed. Pandering to and promoting fear, bigotry, intolerance, violence, greed, selfishness etc.

  3. Murdoch has to deal with the Obama-Rudd-Hu Jiantao world.

    Be fun if Rudd is telling Hu JianTao that that Murdoch media lot are a bunch of trouble makers. How about some alternatives.

    Let Warren Buffet buy up News Ltd Australia and FoxNews in the USA. Now that would be fun.

  4. Probably just sitting back waiting for the share price to bottom out and pick it all up for a song.

    Yeah, it would be funny. might be able to get the print media back to where it used to be. A responsible organ for dissemination of news and information.

  5. Scorpio, the other possibility is that Sheridan is absolutely wrong and that new opportunities is what Australian and US businesses need to give them some confidence in the future.

    I assume he didn’t have a full analysis of how well, Bush has gone in the past four years or how well the rightwingers are expected to go in Western Australia, California, Alaska and New Zealand in the next three or four years did he? I’ll read his story later as I have things to do.

  6. [Centre, the Australian would feel obliged to not reveal their source if they have any understanding of journalistic ethics or a desire to continue receiving inside information on the Government.]

    Especially if the source was themselves.

  7. BB, if you have a bit of time to spare, I would love to see your analysis of that Sheridan article.

    It’s quite possible that it is even beyond your amazing skills to determine where he is coming from, where he intended to go with it and what he intended that we derive from it.

    Quite an incredible piece of “journalism” really. And they wonder why they are going broke!!!

  8. Dario, isn’t it funny how the Opposition don’t mind it in the least when the MSM make up rubbish about Rudd & Labor, but are highly indignant when the boot is on the other foot.

    How dare they! The total insolence of it all! The MSM are there to do “our” bidding and make us look good to the electorate!!!

  9. [Dario, isn’t it funny how the Opposition don’t mind it in the least when the MSM make up rubbish about Rudd & Labor, but are highly indignant when the boot is on the other foot.]

    But of course everyone knows the electorate got it wrong when they went in to the polling booths last year… the Liberals are still our rightful Government and the ALP is simply warming the benches until the ruling party is returned triumphantly next election, to much fanfare and adulation. Lord Turnbull tells us so.

  10. And here’s the evidence of a concerted Coalition/media attack to try and end Labor’s “honeymoon” and reclaim government by default.

    [The former Howard government minister said Mr Rudd was still “very much an unknown quantity” because he had not put his stamp on government.

    “He’s almost as much of a mystery now as he was 12 months ago, as he was 24 months ago,” Mr Abbott said.]

    [The Australian public had been generous to Mr Rudd during his first year in office but that was about to change, he said.

    “I don’t think it’s going to be easy for him in the next 12 to 24 months.”]

    http://news.smh.com.au/national/pm-conceited-insecure-and-odd-abbott-20081110-5l6l.html

  11. I doubt more than a handful that voted for the ALP last election would take anything Tony Abbott ever says seriously again. IMO the guy’s days as a politican are far, far behind him.

  12. [“but that was about to change”]

    Hahahahahahahaha more prognostication about the ‘end of the honeymoon’… it almost sounds like a Shanahan or Milne article! They’ve got nothing.

  13. [“He’s almost as much of a mystery now as he was 12 months ago, as he was 24 months ago,” Mr Abbott said.]
    In contrast, we all wish we could forget the fact Tony Abbott exists.

  14. The Ghost of Bernie Banton will forever haunt the ex-seminarian …

    Tony Abbott passing judgement on the quality of the brave campaigner’s character: “Let’s be up front about this, I know Bernie is very sick, but just because a person is sick doesn’t necessarily mean that he is pure of heart in all things.”

    And all for the sake of saving a dying hero in Howard! Lest we forget.

  15. [What a waste of money….3.4b gone…what’s the budget forcast now!]
    This is what we need Glen! More Liberals willing to tell every worker in the car industry that they should get a different job.

  16. [The Australian public had been generous to Mr Rudd during his first year in office but that was about to change, he said.]

    Honeymoon is officially over, Abbot said so.

    [Who thinks Australia will have a car building industry in 20 years time? What about 40 years?]

    We would if the short-sighted idiots at Holden hadn’t scrapped the Australian designed and built hybrid Commodore back in 1999/2000. The international car industry deserves everything that’s coming too. They tried to stifle innovation and milk the petrol-fuelled combustion engine for everything it was worth and now it’s all crashing down around them. Unfortunately, the workers are the ones who are paying the brunt, as usual, but it was the execs who made the poor decisions and, as usual, they’ll be walking away with millions.

  17. [96b in debt here we come!]

    I’d rather have a deficit and have well funded infrastructure and services then have tens of billions of surplus’ and nothing to show for it, a la 11 years of Howard.

  18. So lets just throw away money to failing industry.

    The Libs didnt do that for Ansett and it was the right decision.

    The last thing we need is Rudd blowing the surplus on unprofitable industry for absolutely nothing!

  19. [Unfortunately, the workers are the ones who are paying the brunt, as usual, but it was the execs who made the poor decisions and, as usual, they’ll be walking away with millions.]
    Does our industry have the skills to make small energy efficient cars that can compete on price with the Asian imports?

    Or are we only skilled at making big cars like Commodores and Falcons?

  20. If we didnt create a surplus there would be no 3.4b for Rudd to throw away Oz god dont you understand anything!

    How buggered would we be in the GFC if we didnt have money to throw around?

  21. [If we didnt create a surplus there would be no 3.4b for Rudd to throw away Oz god dont you understand anything!]

    “You” didn’t create anything.

    I doubt you can name a single policy that Howard implemented to “create prosperity”.

    The Howard surplus’ were created by a combination of millions of years of natural processes giving us a lot of crap to dig up and sell and the selling off of public assets. The country is worse off for it. The rest of the OECD was INCREASING investment during that period and they didn’t have the money for it. We HAD the money and your bloody legend of a PM wasted it all. That’s his legacy and nothing you can say or do will change that so don’t even bother.

  22. [The Libs didnt do that for Ansett and it was the right decision.]
    No, what it did with Ansett was not allow Air New Zealand to buy it, because Air New Zealand is 1/4 owned by Singapore airlines, which is owned by the Singaporean government.

    So at the end of the day, Costello was just an economic racist / protectionist who couldn’t handle the Singaporean government investing in Australia. He stopped Shell from buying Woodside Petroleum too remember. So he has a track record of protectionism.
    [The last thing we need is Rudd blowing the surplus on unprofitable industry for absolutely nothing!]
    I’m glad you’re attacking this, because Turnbull won’t.

  23. [Does our industry have the skills to make small energy efficient cars that can compete on price with the Asian imports?]

    Can we even compete with Asian imports? I think instead of trying to compete in markets where we have no hope we should either try to make our own markets (big, efficient cars?) or stick developing IP.

    But we were designing and making hybrid cars years before the Prius became all trendy here. Holden didn’t think there was money it so they gave up. And what’s GM’s profit now? Take that you twats.

  24. The ALP do thank the Libs for all the hard work in building up the surplus, and its with the greatest pleasure that they will direct it to the workers. When Kennett left that thumpng great surplus in Victoria I’m sure the Bracks Brumby cabinet were thrilled. What by the way is the point of having a surplus if not to spend in times of economic crisis. Hello, we have an economic crisis, therefore any responsible government would do the same. Oh sorry I forgot, its not the countries surplus its little Johnnies, silly of me.

  25. If Labor has to thank the Howard government for the surplus; the Howard government should’ve thanked Labor for completely recreating the economy so that it could create surpluses.

    But they never did, so there’s no need for Labor to thank the Howard government.

  26. Glen, I hope your heroes in parliament take your stand on this. It will ensure their continued occupation of the opposition benches for some time. What you are essentially advocating is the destruction of thousnda of jobs. Nice one.

  27. Rudd’s a “mystery man”, “conceited”, “insecure”, “odd” and “chilly”. All of these items are still listed on butchers paper in Turnbull’s office. A week of brainstorming, with the occasional involvement of Chris Mitchell*, and this is the best they can produce!

    (On another page, there are a number of dot-pointed items mysteriously crossed out during an afternoon tea break: “the narrowing”, “honeymoon”, “Heiner”, “enough mud”, “Henry (W-R-O-N-G)” and “Pizza Supreme (x 4, Hockey)”.

    * Who is becoming increasingly desperate in light of his boss’ recent forebodings. Oh, those neocons know all about loyalty don’t they!

  28. The Libs haven’t learnt a very important lesson. Trying to create a new perception when the opposite is in full swing is impossible. You can only enhance an already growing perception. When a leader is popular you don’t go about making him unpopular by attcking him. You wait until he does unpopular things and becomes unpopular first, otherwise you end up becoming very unpopular yourself.

  29. Turnbull as the leader of the “Government in exile”, is a bit miffed that they are not getting access to the levers of power as they rightfully should.

    [Federal Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull says he wants to know what plans the Rudd government has for ABC Learning beyond its commitment to keep the troubled childcare giant’s centres open until the end of the year.

    Mr Turnbull on Monday morning reiterated the opposition’s support for government’s initial $22 million bailout package, but said more details were needed.]

    [“Would you be satisfied, … as a journalist, as someone who seeks after the truth from politicians, if the government said we’re throwing $22 million into a business to keep the doors open until Christmas, but we don’t actually know how any of that $22 million is going to be spent? You think that’s good enough?”]

    http://news.smh.com.au/national/oppn-wants-abc-learning-bailout-details-20081110-5l1z.html

  30. Meanwhile, a 69 year old dinosaur is still in a critical condition after being mauled in the Bennelong Zoo … by a tiger (rrrrrrr) …

  31. For a better understanding of just how the greed on Wall Street contributed to the GFC, this article, although only outlining just a small part of the problem, is probably the best I have seen.

    The greed of the players involved here verges on the obscene and shows just how the regulators were asleep at the wheel during the last three or four years.

    But as 2007 progressed, the mortgage business began to fall apart — and the impact was brutal. As mortgages started to fail, the debt ratings on CDOs were cut; anyone left holding the products was locked in a downward spiral because no one wanted to buy something that was collapsing. Among the biggest victims was Merrill.

    In October 2007, the firm shocked investors when it announced a $7.9 billion write-down related to its exposure to mortgage CDOs, resulting in a $2.3 billion loss, the largest in the firm’s history. Semerci was forced out, later landing at a London-based hedge fund, the Duet Group.

    Merrill’s board also ousted O’Neal. On top of the $70 million in compensation he was awarded during his four-year tenure as chief executive, O’Neal departed with an exit package worth $161 million.]

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/09/business/09magic.php?page=1

  32. Westpoll is out 🙂

    [The WA Liberal Party would have gone close to winning government in its own right if an election had been held last weekend, the latest Westpoll shows.

    On a two-party preferred basis, Colin Barnett’s Liberals comfortably led Labor 56 to 44, despite a slight drift in the Liberal primary vote over the past month which appeared to go to minor parties.

    The Greens had 10 per cent support and the Nationals 4 per cent.

    Pollster Keith Patterson said that without the Nationals’ preferences the Liberals would be sitting on 49.25 per cent of the vote to Labor’s 34.75 per cent. “While the Nationals deliver a two-party preferred bonanza for the Liberals, the situation is very close to being an outright win for the Liberals,” Mr Patterson said.]

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=107194

  33. Rudd’s $10.4b economic stimulus package looks small bikkies compared to the Chinese one just announced which saw a 2% rise in the Aussie market this morning.

    [China announced a huge economic stimulus package Sunday aimed at bolstering its weakening economy and, in the process, perhaps helping to counter the effects of the global economic slowdown.

    In a sweeping move, Beijing said it would spend an estimated $586 billion by 2010 on wide array of national infrastructure and social welfare projects. They would include new railroads, subways and airports and rebuilding areas like those devastated by the Sichuan earthquake in May.]

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/09/business/yuan.php

  34. [The WA Liberal Party would have gone close to winning government in its own right if an election had been held last weekend, the latest Westpoll shows.]

    I can’t see that lasting for too long Frank. Once electors realise that the election promises have no chance of being delivered and were just “spin” to suck them in, there will be a backlash.

  35. [I can’t see that lasting for too long Frank. Once electors realise that the election promises have no chance of being delivered and were just “spin” to suck them in, there will be a backlash.]

    It’s already happening with the Stadium, and the 3% in savings for the Public Service, especially as the Police Commisioner has come out and said there will have to be cuts in Frontline Policing to achieve the savings.

    And Brendon Grylls is looking for more money for the Bush from the proposed BHP deal.

    [The WA Nationals’ program to spend more money in the regions may be expanded to include another fund to drive development in the North-West if mining giant BHP Billiton’s bid to take over rival Rio Tinto proceeds.

    Nationals leader Brendon Grylls said yesterday partnerships with the private sector were also possible to ensure key projects were developed more quickly.

    Mr Grylls said some analysts estimated the stamp duty on the transaction of a BHP-Rio deal could be worth more than $1 billion to the State’s coffers. He said it should be put into a new fund specifically for projects in WA’s north. This would be over and above the royalties for regions scheme which promises to spend $2.8 billion on regional projects over the next four years on top of projects already in the Budget.

    The takeover bid is expected to be finalised by the end of March.

    The Opposition attacked Mr Grylls’ proposal, saying that it was not sustainable to spend even more on regional development at a time when the State’s revenue was falling because of the global financial crisis.

    “The royalties for the regions scheme is already very generous,” shadow regional development minister Alannah MacTiernan said.

    “You can’t just go around with a huge sack of money playing Santa Claus without any strategic analysis.” ]

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=107193

  36. The Bush Administration have a cheek in pushing China to help bail out their incompetence and greed. Especially after only 18 months ago making all sorts of threatening gestures towards China in relation to the Taiwan issue.

    The beauty about this package is that it will be of great benefit to Australia and help keep our mineral export income running reasonably strongly, but not unfortunately at previous high levels.

    This is where Rudd’s good relations with the Chinese leadership is going to pay off in spades. Obama understands this and is going to develop close ties with Rudd to try and take some advantage of our great China relationship.

    [At the meeting, China is expected to be pressed again to do its part to help strengthen the global economy in the face of what some economists say is the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. But Beijing has already indicated that it intends to help stabilize the global economy by trying to keep the Chinese economy, the world’s fastest-growing, on track.]

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/09/business/yuan.php

  37. No 728

    Oz, you can criticise Howard all you like but you can’t really talk when Rudd is throwing money hand over fist at our car industry. It’s practically a government department now given how much assistance they’re giving it. $6.2 billion / 65000 workers = ~$95,000 subsidy per worker. An absolute outrage.

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