Essential Research: 61-39

The latest two-week rolling online panel survey by Essential Research shows federal Labor retaining its record 61-39 lead from last week, although the preferred prime minister gap has narrowed from 41 per cent to 35 per cent. Tellingly, the government’s handling of the financial crisis has the favour of 63 per cent of respondents against 18 per cent disapproving, compared with 31 per cent and 35 per cent for the opposition. Also covered are attitudes to the US presidential race.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

861 comments on “Essential Research: 61-39”

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  1. [In other news, Kev The Big Spender has injected billions more into an uncompetitive industry that continues to produce cars nobody wants to buy. Why oh why do we persist with this nonsense?]

    So GP, you’d rather close it down in Australia and have all those employees in the auto and related industries out of a job? Well, we always knew the Libs were no friend of the workers…

  2. [So GP, you’d rather close it down in Australia and have all those employees in the auto and related industries out of a job? Well, we always knew the Libs were no friend of the workers…]
    The government should’ve put strict conditions on it. Such as they can’t manufacturer any more petrol powered cars after 2025.

  3. No 751

    Yeah, but at least the US Auto industry actually has a sufficient body of demand and diverse product. And they’re much closer to green cars too, with far more models available with hybrid engines. The Australian industry by comparison is a dinosaur – the Ford Falcon engine has roots in the 1960s, indeed it still uses the same cast-iron block.

  4. [The government should’ve put strict conditions on it. Such as they can’t manufacturer any more petrol powered cars after 2025.]

    I doubt they could restrict export standards, but I would say those kinds of measures are likely to be introduced on Australian emission standards some time in the near future. No need to tie the money it… you can just change the law.

  5. No 752

    No, that’s a straw man. The very reason why our car industry is so uncompetitive and ancient is because the Government has been propping it up since time immemorial and much of that assistance has been unconditional. That doesn’t mean I want it shut down – but the only way it will ever be self-sustainable is if the Government stops subsidising dinosaurs. Real competition is the only way you get real innovation and build competitive advantage.

  6. Now for a bit of light “relief”. Make love not war.

    [The 25-year-old customer service manager needs sex up to a dozen times A DAY and admits her addiction is out of control.

    Randy Terri even trawls the internet for partners, agreeing to sleep with them no matter how ugly they turn out to be.

    “That’s another sad parts of this problem — my desire for sex overrides any quality control issues,” said Terri, from Dagenham, Essex. “It doesn’t matter to me how it happens or what they look like and it’s a bonus if they’re well-endowed.” ]

    http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/64909/IM-A-SEX-ADDICT-25-year-old-woman-with-medical-condition-slept-with-1000-men.html

  7. GP @ 758

    Don’t forget, your hero dished out the largesse to doomed farmers in much the same way …

    Here’s Ross Gittens in 2002:

    “If you thought the notion of farmers and their political toadies wanting to ‘capitalise the profits, but socialise the losses’ was a thing of the past, wake up. It’s happening now.

    It got little publicity in the cities but, just last financial year, 2001-02, Australian farmers had their most profitable year in yonks. From a recent average of $5.1 billion a year, farm income almost doubled to $9.8 billion.

    The latest estimate is that, this year, income will slump to $3.7 billion. So what happens? Out comes the begging bowl.

    Farming must be the only for-profit industry in the country that passes round the hat whenever profits slip. If any city businesses tried that, we’d laugh them to scorn. But when Dad and Dave do it, we dig deep. And if we don’t, our vote-chasing politicians do it for us.”

    Did your family business receive any of the rivers of gold that flooded rural Australia during Howard’s prime ministership? (Let’s face it – he was only a free market man when it suited him!)

  8. [Don’t forget, your hero dished out the largesse to doomed farmers in much the same way]

    I’m sure that doesn’t count, as that was by a Liberal government

  9. It would be interesting to know how much public money Howard used to “subsidise” private health …

    [Howard knows that the more people rely on public health care, the more likely they are to support the political party that they associate with strong public services. That is why the growth of private health care is good news for conservative politicians. By weakening public health, Howard weakens the ALP.]
    The Age, 30 September 2007
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/pm-of-ulterior-motives/2007/09/29/1190486626917.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

  10. [It would be interesting to know how much public money Howard used to “subsidise” private health]

    Again Cuppa, that’s just not fair… only subsidies by Labor governments count

  11. Let’s not forget the handouts (shamefully maintained by Rudd, I must say) to those schools no less desperate* than Macquarie Fields High School or Moree Public School:

    “Trinity is the biggest winner: its funding in the 2005-08 period was $14.7 million higher than it would have been under the old system. And assuming it maintains student numbers, Trinity will receive an additional $19.1 million when the next four-year funding deal goes through next year. Other big winners are Kinross Wallaroi at Orange ($9.4 million), The King’s School ($9.2 million), Newington College ($8.4 million), PLC Croydon ($6.1 million), Meriden at Strathfield ($5 million), St Andrew’s Cathedral School ($4.3 million) and Scots ($4.1 million).”

    Source: SMH, Oct 2007.

    * E.g. King’s is struggling with only “15 cricket fields, 13 rugby fields, 12 tennis courts, five basketball courts, three soccer fields, two climbing walls, a 50-metre swimming pool, gym, boatshed, and indoor rifle range.”

  12. Fossil fuel subsidies…? Or does that again not count?

    By the way, for anyone who couldn’t be bothered watching QT, the Libs are still talking about the apparently “bungled” deposit guarantee and the “leaked” phone conversation.

  13. [Let’s not forget the handouts (shamefully maintained by Rudd, I must say) to those schools no less desperate* than Macquarie Fields High School or Moree Public School:]

    Don’t you get it! Giving millions of dollars to private school is about choice!

  14. [did anyone take talcum to task re his remarks about mrs rudd.]

    Not in the first 45 minutes, that’s all I saw. Was a bit of an anti-climax after a two week build up.

  15. [Every dollar spent on education is a dollar well spent.]

    We’ll remember that quote when you next complain of funding to an indigineous or Muslim or other non-christian school. 🙂

  16. No 769

    Still playing the private vs public game. Even Gillard has the maturity to move on from it. The vast majority of private schools are not wealthy – it is a false image portrayed by envious dolts in the Teachers union.

  17. Oh, and how could we forget the sugar industry …

    Nov, 2002 (AAP):

    “Australia was not prepared to follow the United States and Philippines and corrupt the world sugar market by providing subsidies, Prime Minister John Howard said today. He said a nation of 20 million people could not afford to subsidise the Australian sugar industry and he did not want to add to the corruption of the industry. Mr Howard said Australia’s sugar industry was on its knees because of a very depressed world price rather than because it was competing with subsidised farmers …”

    Feb, 2004 (Associate Professor Ann Capling):

    “One thing is for certain though: we can expect to see some sweet deals for the Australian sugar industry in the lead-up to the federal election.”

    Jun, 2004 (The Age):

    “To compensate, the Federal Government announced another big sugar rescue package, but farmers say it is still not enough for them to create their dream of an industry where profit is literally powered by cane. The $444 million sugar package includes $146 million in ‘sustainability grants’ and $75 million to help the industry diversify. The sustainability money will give farmers a much-needed extra $2 to $3 a tonne for this year’s harvest.”

    Jan, 2006 (SMH):

    “‘It’s unfortunate if Australia feels as though it was out-negotiated,’ Jack Roney, chief economist at the Washington DC-based American Sugar Alliance, told AAP. ‘A deal is a deal. I think US negotiators were very wise in excluding sugar from this free trade agreement.'”

  18. [The vast majority of private schools are not wealthy]

    “The King’s School ($9.2 million), Newington College ($8.4 million), PLC Croydon ($6.1 million), Meriden at Strathfield ($5 million), St Andrew’s Cathedral School ($4.3 million) and Scots ($4.1 million).”

    Yes – King’s, St Andrew’s, Newington, PLC and Scots. Famous for not being wealthy.

  19. The King’s School principal, Dr Tim Hawkes, going in hard on the “class question” (Aug, 2004):

    “‘The stereotyping on Federal Labor’s part, and presumption of wealth … is a political stunt designed to cast King’s as the villain of all educational ailments in the country,’ he said. ‘It’s both irresponsible and unwarranted and scapegoating of the most depressing nature.’ Dr Hawkes said, however, that ‘a good proportion’ of King’s parents would probably vote Labor anyway.”

    A good proportion being those whose kids were lucky* enough to get a scholarship!

    And by charging each student a fee of merely $16,000 in 2004 (compared to the minimum annual wage in the same year of $23,316), I don’t think King’s was making any presumptions about the wealth of those families sending their kids to the school (without any financial assistance)!

    (Dr Hawkes must have got his PhD in the study of parallel universes!)

    * I use the word advisedly!

  20. [Can the government give my family business $95,000 per worker too?]
    Oh GP, I didn’t realise you had a business employing thousands of people, with many off shoot companies depending on you, that you’d existed here in Australia for 50 years and that you have the opportunity to go green in the coming years. Silly me.

  21. Turnbull & Co seem to be keeping fairly quiet about this. I wonder why?

    [THE commonwealth-owned company overseeing the multi-billion-dollar proposed Melbourne to Brisbane inland rail link has brushed aside concerns private funding may lead to the same problems faced by{{{ FreightLink’s Adelaide-Darwin line, which was placed in administration last week.}}}]

    [FreightLink went into voluntary administration on Thursday, with creditors owed $500million. Despite turning a $29million profit from operations, the company has been unable to service the debt incurred from the line’s construction.]

    Could “this” have something to do with it?

    [“It was always doomed to come to that end because it was set up with insufficient capital and not enough freight,” Mr Compton said. “It was built for a political reason and it was doomed from that point.”]

    Well, fancy that. Built for a political reason. Now I wonder who he is referring to here?

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24626721-5013404,00.html

  22. No 781

    Would that be the same political reason Rudd’s propping up a dinosaur industry at a cost of $95,000 per worker?

  23. GP, that’s $55,000 less than Howard’s offer of a $150,000 “exit grant” per farmer in Sep, 2007. Why are these workers any different to those in Broadmeadows, Elizabeth etc.?

  24. Gary
    “that you have the opportunity to go green in the coming years.”

    The only green GP is going to go is green with envy at the Fabs superior economic skills.A bold restructure of inefficient and outdated industries will increase both our competitiveness and our skill base.

  25. [“It was built for a political reason and it was doomed from that point.”]

    Built by Kellog-Brown-Root, aka “Halliburton”… without tender, right in the middle of the Iraq Qar.

  26. BB
    As much as it pains me,the railway line is crtical to australia’s long term “interests”

    The short term imperative was definitely political .The long term brings into play strategic and economic benefits that far outway any initial under utilization.

    Of course if Hawke had bought certain elements of the defence review of the late 80’s the railway would have been long built.

  27. the libs are flogging a dead horse with the bungled guarantee, even blind freddie knows it saved the banks and therefore the economy from crashing down, same with the phonegate, both sides say it didnt happen and even if it did nobody except the libs and LTEP cares, Joe Worker is more worried about holding his job or paying his bills, as far as he’s concerned bush can go take a running jump {preferably over the gap after presiding on the meltdown} as far as Joe Worker thinks, he had a funny feeling he never did like that Bush bloke.

  28. According to Robert Manne (in The Monthly), Rudd believes that industry policy is “neither backward-looking nor a form of disguised protectionism.”

    He notes, however, that “under the influence of neo-liberalism and the market fundamentalists, ‘nation building’ was the not the only descriptor of state action in the economy that was banished from the respectable political lexicon during the Howard years. Also banished was the idea of ‘industry policy’. Governments, we were told, could not ‘pick winners’. All forms of assistance to industry would be exploited by ‘rent seekers’. Industry policy was nothing but a euphemism for protectionism. The market was the only rational allocator of resources.”

    Well, I hope that Rudd and Kim Carr have designed this $6.2b package in accordance with some kind of “industry policy” …

  29. [Governments, we were told, could not ‘pick winners’. All forms of assistance to industry would be exploited by ‘rent seekers’. Industry policy was nothing but a euphemism for protectionism.]

    Every time I see something like this, for some reason the name Stan Howard pops into my head.

    Also I get a strange thought about ethanol.

  30. I know, it’s like a bad smell. Perhaps it’s because of hypocrisy like this (and the blatant $444m bribe given to the sugar industry in the wake of Vaile’s failed FTA negotiation), that our very own ” rel=”nofollow”>Free Market Crusader is lecturing countries such as Nigeria about economic reform!

    (Incidentally, the government of Nigeria didn’t ask him back.)

  31. From watching QT today, I think the main lesson today is for the Lib not let Sophie Mirrabella asks anymore questions… Gillard slaughtered her, the Speaker really should have invoked the mercy rule…

    And ltep will no doubt be disappointed with Rudd’s answer on the phonegate.

  32. Grog, what did the PM say re: the dreaded.. what was it according to Malcolm and Mesmerelda? Some sort of monumental insult to all Americans, via the PM’s leaking of the contents of the phone call? Not forgetting Chris Mitchell being in the next room? Not forgetting Eddixinder’s memorable advice to that novice, the PM, on the diplomatic nuance required in these circumstances, and how he’s probably blown it for all time with the Americans.
    Gawd Almighty, I can’t believe it’s getting another run on the 7.30 Report, courtesy of the exceptionally balanced and insightful Michael Brissenden. He’s now quoting the original story in detail! WTF?

  33. Yeah, Brissenden says the story was wrong BUT should still be answered anyway. He even mentioned that Chris Mitchell was at the dinner and drew absolutely no conclusions from that. Whatever happened, apparently it’s all Rudd’s fault.

    Who is this pompous git Brissenden when he’s at home?

  34. OMG, I just saw a bit from QT on the 7.30 Report. with Malcolm declaiming who would have thought we’d ever see the day we’d see “a black man” elected as U.S. President. G.P., Glen, anyone who has any clout/influence in the LNP. please get out the big shepherd’s crook and drag him off stage, in any direction, as soon as possible.

  35. “Black man”… I wondered about that myself.

    The whole thing about Obama was that he was a well-rounded candidate. To the Rainmaker he’s just another “black”, all “presentation and style”… your classic definition of an “uppity n—er”.

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