Gallup‘s three-day tracking poll shows the situation in the US presidential race throughout September as follows:
Barack Obama held a slight lead as the month began, which seems to be the long-term status quo. Then came the Republican convention and Sarah Palin bounce, which briefly put McCain well ahead. This moderated into a slight lead when the dust settled, before being wiped out with the onset of the banking crisis. However, Obama’s six-point lead at the start of this week has narrowed, despite polls giving him a clear lead on economic issues – surely a great boon in the current environment. Much is being said of an ABC-Washington Post poll which has Obama nine points in front, but this appears to be out on a limb. In any case, Gallup’s historical analysis reminds us that a lot can happen in the next six weeks, one way or the other.
William @ 960,
Seems to me that this sort of poll would be useless. The Republicans wouldn’t run it. The Democrats wouldn’t run it as they have been officially on the party unity line since Tuesday night of the convention (when Hillary gave her convention speech). If, however, something like this materializes down the road a bit, would it really matter? As of 5:45am here local time today, McCain’s campaign is officially DOA. 🙂 🙂 ……. If he can’t swing his fellow party members behind the financial relief bill, he is now officially toast. You can’t be president if you can’t command leadership from amongst your own party 😉
970,
While no less annoying, it is more acceptable to have a disagreeable Labor supporter amongst the ranks than it is an intransigent Liberal supporter. At least you know the underlying beliefs are acceptable on most issues 😉 …….
994,
For now ….. we change time this weekend, 2am first Saturday in October. The US changes time 2am the last Saturday in October. So once we change our time, the difference will be opposite time of day and +3 hours. Once they change their time, it will be opposite time of day and +4 hours.
current – Canberra 12 noon, Washington 10pm previous day
after our time change – Canbera 12 noon, Washington 9pm previous day
after their time change – Canberra 12 noon, Washington 8pm previous day
Re 1003, that should read “opposite time of day and minus 2/3/4 hours” but the examples below have it right even if I’ve got the text wrong …. need more coffee 😉
I’ve converted time changes between the two countries on an ongoing basis since 1994 as I’ve relatives and friends in both countries and the ” + ” comes from the USA end of it [10pm to 12noon the next day]. For Aussie to the US, its the opposite …..
In light of the US Congress vote, I thought this comment by a blogger was a very appropriate one. I would have contributed similar but this guy beat me to it 😉
[ blackton said: And just this morning a McCain spokesperson was taking credit for how McCain had saved the bill. Is it possible for a 72 year old man to curl up into the fetal position because I suspect that is what McCain wants to do. ]
Yesterday Obama was on 57.5% chance of winning on Intrade, now that the bailout has been voted down he is on 61%.
Can anyone find a reliable reference to validate this comment?
[ michael said: Breaking: Sources close to Senator John McCain say he will suspend Gov. Sarah Palin from her debate with Senator Joe Biden. “The failure to pass the recovery plan demands she focus all her energy along with me and we will both head to Washington and be on call.” The paid informant confirmed McCain had decided on this course before the vote and before today’s airing of Palin’s interview with Katie Couric on CBS Evening News. He’s urging CBS to not air the interview as it my further “harm their effort” in Washington.
September 29, 2008 3:25 PM ]
“Worse Than Hoover” [ So the verdict is in. The House’s failure to pass the bailout bill means that George W. Bush’s record will not be as bad as Herbert Hoover’s. It will be worse.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jacob-heilbrunn/worse-than-hoover_b_130301.html ]
Bailout rejected 228/205, sharemarket dives.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/business/30bailout.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1
So the executive will be held to account for the failure of the legislature?
ltep,
Moreso, the Republican party will be held to account. Watch for a bloodbath now in Republican seats in the House [as well as Republican Senators running for reelection too], all 500+ seats are up for reelection every 2 yeas ……..
I’d assume it wasn’t just Republican members and senators who voted against the package though wasn’t it? Don’t the Democrats have control of both houses? Technically if the house leaders were strong enough they could force their members to support the package. I’d imagine the Democrats would be more easily ‘to blame’ for a failure to pass legislation.
ltep,
numbers were [228 no – 205 yes]. Of those, the breakddown was as follows : [ More than two-thirds of Republicans and 40 percent of Democrats opposed the bill. In all, 65 Republicans joined 140 Democrats in voting “yes,” while 133 Republicans and 95 Democrats voted “no.” ]
I can tell you from an analysis of the votes of the Michigan house delegation {I read the corresponding articles on the Detroit Free Press web site this morning, Michigan is my home state in the US} that the congressional delegation there voted 9 – 6 to turn it down. I don’t have specific party line breakdown on those numbers BUT I do know that those Democrats AND Republicans who voted against it were for the following reasons 1. Republicans – simply against their hard line philosophical beliefs on how to handle the economy (read: NO market intervention, let it take care of itself) and 2. Democrats – NOT enough help for homeowners in protection against homeforclosure. So too MUCH help for Republicans and too LITTLE help for Democrats.
I think that the reasons WHY Michigan congressmen and women voted against it were similar to their colleagues who did the same. In the end, partisan politics took over as it wasn’t enough for left leaning liberals and too much for right leaning conservatives. The Republicans will be blamed though as the Democrats CLEARLY said up front that they would NOT vote for it unless the Republicans voted for it in the majority (so as to prevent the wedge factor later on).
Democrats have jumped to 353 Electoral College Votes on Intrade this morning, with Florida and North Carolina moving across to the Blue column (Florida actually moved yesterday)
Fox/Rasmussen…
Florida – Obama 47 McCain 47
Ohio – Obama 49 McCain 48
Pennsylvania – Obama 48 McCain 42
Colorado – Obama 49 McCain 48
Virginia – Obama 50 McCain 47
Good numbers for Obama, even if he hasn’t quite put this thing away. The difficulty for McCain is that if he can’t win a big Kerry state like Pennsylvania or Michigan (and at the moment it doesn’t look like he’s gonna), then he essentially has to run the table and win everything else that’s in play.
New Rasmussen Swing State polls:
All figures relative to Obama
Pennsylvania +8
Virginia +3
Colorado +1
Florida 0
Ohio -1
“The number saying that they would not be comfortable with Obama as President fell in all five states. In all five, the number expressing such discomfort is at the lowest level since tracking began on September 7.”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling_september_28_2008
Hmm, yeah. The Ohio one is self-contradictory. It has Obama 49-48 in the [url=http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election]top paragraph[/url] but McCain 48-47 in the tables and in the summary page.
Guess it must be the latter figure.
Reposting using html rather than vbulletin markup:
Hmm, yeah. The Ohio one is self-contradictory. It has Obama 49-48 in the top paragraph but McCain 48-47 in the tables and in the summary page.
Guess it must be the latter figure.
Pennsylvania also has its headline figure at odds to the rest.
Question for William – now that we’re posting via a login system, is it possible to enable editing of past posts?
Given that the votes against the bailout were
Democrat For 140 Against 95
Republican For 65 Against 133
it’s hard to see that the Democrats can be blamed for its failure.
McCain was running around before the vote boasting that his leadership had rounded up the Republican votes required to pass the bill. Talk about having egg on your face.
Question for Possum and the smarter political brains here: how reliable is Intrade?
And: 90 or so Democrats also voted against the bail out bill in the House. Won’t this hurt both parties, not just the Republicans?
i posted before that having the Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to be in charged of the bail-out is like asking Dracula to be in charged of the Blood Bank. Especially in his first attempt where he and the Bush Admin simply doled up a three page memo and asked the Congress to sign-up without questions or inputs.
People forget that he was the CEO of Goldman-Sachs during the height of the obscenities of Wall St. He was one of the main culprits of the problems. No wonder the US people and Congress dont trust him and the Bush Admin. They see through it all as Dracula is asking to be made the head of the Blood Bank and then doling out the blood for his vampire friends.
evan14,
No, it shouldn’t hurt the Democrats as they were very very clear up front that they were NOT voting for it en masse unless a majority of the Republicans did the same. Quite clearly, they viewed the Republicans as having created the mess and so they wanted the Republicans onboard to help fix up the mess as well. Dems won’t be tainted by this at all, those Democrats who voted against it did so as it didn’t have enough protections for homeowners facing forclosure. Had those specific Democrats bailed out and voted for the bill, they, in fact, would have been crucified by their constituents come Election Day.
evan14 @ 1020,
[ On Monday, not enough lawmakers were willing to take the political risk _ just five weeks before the elections _ of backing a deeply unpopular measure that many voters see as an undeserved bailout for Wall Street.
The bill went down, 228-205, even though Paulson and congressional leaders proclaimed a day earlier that they had worked out an acceptable compromise in marathon weekend talks.
Lawmakers were caught in the middle. On one side were the dire predictions from Bush, his economic team, and their own party leaders of an all-out financial meltdown if they failed to approve the rescue. On the other side: a flood of protest calls and e-mails from voters threatening to punish them at the ballot box. ]
Evan – In 2004 Intrade got every state correct the day before the election. At mid September 2004 it had all states correct except Wisconsin and New Mexico. This time in 2004 it had all States correct. Between the beginning of October and the week before the election in 2004, Intrade was between perfectly correct and a couple of States out as a few States floated around the 51-49 probability mark either way before breaking at the end.
The got the mid terms right, they got the 04 Congress right – they have a better empirical record than raw polling data in US elections, which is why I’m using them.
Julie I don’t understand why anyone would accept the Democrats not taking a firm position on the bailout. Surely if they believe in it it makes no difference at all if the Republicans support it or not. Sounds like a copout to me.
Possum and Julie: thanks so much!
Today’s electoratevote.com has Obama on 285 electoral college votes
Possum, isn’t there a difference between the second election of a President and the first? I would imagine the incumbency factor would make votes much easier to pick how states are going to fall.
Ltep,
The way it is likely to be spinned is that conservative Republicans voted against the bailout on ideological grounds (which is true). These Republicans voted against their own White House and their Whips in the House.
Of course, it is completely reprehensible that so many Democrats voted against the bill – I still struggle to understand why so many Congressmen (and women) were against the best possible way of saving the US financial system…
ltep, congressmen and women don’t have party discipline in Washington the way that they do here in Canberra. That isn’t to say that folks here in Parliament always listen 😉 but in Washington, they listen to their constituents before they listen to their party elders.
Possum called it for Obama yesterday, pretty much. McCain can’t recover from this. Obama wins.
This bailout failure is not Bush’s fault. He tried to do the right thing. I just can’t understand why the GOP killed itself (unless they voted out of principle which seems very unlikely) and why the Dems killed the economy.
IMHO, the significance of the bailout failing is almost a September 11 moment. We might look back at 29th September 2008 as the start of a worldwide Depression.
Well juliem I’d beg to differ with you on the ‘listening to constituents’ part. Party discipline, whilst seeming undemocratic, is something that has my full support.
Is this the same Possum who said that Labor would win North Sydney and Kooyong? Just asking.
Bravo Congress for rejecting the corrupt and immoral Paulson plan. Why on earth should the taxpayers hand over $700bn to Wall St bankers to rescue them from their own greed and stupidity?
Juliem,
Listening to constituents should always take a back seat to the national interest in times of crisis (and generally, I would think).
The congressmen who voted against this bill voted because they thought their constituents wouldn’t like it. I would like to ask those Congressmen how much will their constituents like it when the US financial sector collapses? (And what are they going to do about the current financial crisis?)
Adam,
What’s your plan then to solve the current crisis in the US financial system?
1031, sure here in Canberra, no worries. Simply doesn’t exist in Washington though. 😉 ……
Washington is a different beast 😉
SwingLowe @ 1033,
Personally, I agree. However, the US electorate is NOTORIOUSLY nearsighted and can’t see the forest for the trees …… they might regret this in the long term, but I think perhaps not. As I believe that once the election is over, the New Congress will be able to do something (what I don’t know) about it with a mandate for change. However, the million or billion dollar question is what kind of damage will ensue in the short term until Congress reconvenes in January with the newly elected members. You are looking at a “New Deal” type of situation.
Oh Adam – so bitter so early in the morning, you’ll get an ulcer 🙂
Possum didnt say they’d win Kooyong and North Sydney – the pendulums were saying that at the time based on the polling at the time. You might want to junk Pendulums, but a better way would be to just understand the way they work and not be so snarky when things don’t turn out the way you reckon they ought to.
Opening of Aussie stock market delayed until 10:30am local time so that Rudd and Swan can address the nation before they open. They want to try to settle down the potential for unrest ….. Live on Sky momentarily …..
Possum apparently also speaks of himself in the third person.
Only under special circumstances Ltep – and to answer your question back at 1027, I have no idea. Can’t imagine why there would be.
There is a bigger story that we have not been told.
We have been told that the subprime mortgage is only 15% of the US mortgage market. Any business people will tell you that you have to budget for at least 10% of your customers as “deliquent’ accounts, either late in paying or not paying at all. So if we assume that the rest of 85% is still functioning OK, then how can 15% of deliquent accounts affect the rest.
I dont buy the story that the subprime mortgages in the US is causing of these financial fallouts in the US and the rest of the World. there is another story.
Adam
Their two presidential candidates said it was for the best, with McCain especially taking credit for “rescuing the bill”. Their President, VP, Treasury Sec and leaders of both parties in Congress said it should be passed. It’s an unimaginably bad vote of no-confidence in the countries current and future leaders.
As you said, McCain needed the economy off the front page. It’s going to live there for weeks now as companies go bust one by one. There are already conservative commentators who wrote articles yesterday trumpeting McCain’s ability to work bipartisanly (?) to pass the bill as a reason he’ll come back in the polls. Now he’s going to have to perform his final flip-flop and explain why he didn’t want the bill passed. He’s fallen off that white horse he took after “suspending his campaign to fix the crisis”.
“Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell,” said John Kenneth Galbraith, the greatest economist since Keynes. The essence of free market economics is that companies and individuals must be allowed to fail if they make bad decisions. Let Wall St go broke. Let both the imprudent borrowers and the imprudent lenders take responsibility for their actions. The great majority of Americans, who are either (a) home owners (b) private renters (c) public housing tenants or (d) meeting their mortgage payments, should not have to bail out the small minority (even if it’s a large number) of imprudent borrowers, let alone the greedy and corrupt lenders who pandered to them.
Diogenes, the points in #1043 are more important than McCain or Obama becoming president.
Congress getting in on the short selling act.
Finns – the subprime just polluted the balance sheets of those firms that could least deal with it because of the size and nature of their leverage. The big issue that is now driving the problem isnt the subrpime mortgages themselves, but the bad corporate debt that those subprime mortgages created, and the unwillingness of those in the broader financial system with money, to lend it to those that need it for a decent price.
Hence the liquidity crunch – and as long as the toxic supbrime debt AND the toxic corporate debt (which is derived from the consequences of the subprime debt) remain floating around on balance sheets, the unwillingness to lend will remain.
[Let Wall St go broke.]
Personally, I’m not in the mood to re-enter the Great Depression.
One must remember that the financial system is the bedrock of the global economy – if it fails, everything else goes down with it…
Possum @ 1037, don’t worry, I’m thoroughly enjoying myself.
“when things don’t turn out the way you reckon they ought to” – but things turned out exactly the way I (a) wanted them to and (b) predicted they would – Labor won appox 20 seats as I predicted. It was you and your pendulums who got it wrong, with your massive swing in safe Liberal seats that never happened. That’s because you trust too much to the false science of psephometrics and not enough to politics, as I said at the time. Now you are doing it again. Now, maybe McCain will indeed crash and burn – he’s a risk-taker, and risk-takers frequently crash. But there is no valid psephometric way of *knowing* that right now.
Adam
The Galbraith principles may be right. I’m still wading through economics books to at least earn an opinion. I just read Galbraith’s book on the Crash and he was very critical of the lack of intervention by the Federal Reserve. I’m not sure what he would be suggesting we do now.
My comment about McCain was more to do with justifying my comment that this has screwed McCain. Intrade is 63/36 to Obama now.