US election minus 40 days

Gallup‘s three-day tracking poll shows the situation in the US presidential race throughout September as follows:

Barack Obama held a slight lead as the month began, which seems to be the long-term status quo. Then came the Republican convention and Sarah Palin bounce, which briefly put McCain well ahead. This moderated into a slight lead when the dust settled, before being wiped out with the onset of the banking crisis. However, Obama’s six-point lead at the start of this week has narrowed, despite polls giving him a clear lead on economic issues – surely a great boon in the current environment. Much is being said of an ABC-Washington Post poll which has Obama nine points in front, but this appears to be out on a limb. In any case, Gallup’s historical analysis reminds us that a lot can happen in the next six weeks, one way or the other.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,141 comments on “US election minus 40 days”

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  1. If the House can’t decide, then (I think) the President Pro Temporum of the Senate (i.e. oldest dude in the Senate) becomes President (i think).

    Which would mean that Sen. Rockefeller (D – WV) would become President (or maybe it would be Sen. Kennedy – MA)….

  2. Dario, we’ve just demonstrated that from the current position McCain will win with a 3% shift in CO and 1% shifts in VA and NH. At a quick glance that’s about 100,000 votes out of 115 million cast in 2004. I call that “not many.”

  5. If the House fails to elect a president but the Senate elects a VP then obviously the VP becomes president.

    Order of succession: VP > House Speaker > Senate pres pro tem

  6. I think someone should go and read the Constitution, since none of us knows for certain.

    It’s true that if no President has been chosen when Bush’s term expires, the order of succession in the Constitution comes into effect. If the Senate has chosen a VP, then he/she will become President. If there is no VP either, then Nancy Pelosi will become President.

  7. [we’ve just demonstrated that from the current position McCain will win with a 3% shift in CO and 1% shifts in VA and NH]

    According to RCP, Obama is ahead by 1.3% in NH, 1.8% in VA and 5.4% in CO, and even if they moved back to McCain he would still be down by 12 EVs

  8. As for the state of the race, Obama is clearly ahead.

    It makes no sense to talk about the MoE of aggregate polls. The MoE is a phenomena associated with individual polls. When you’ve got a wealth of polling to combine that virtually washes away the MoE.

    As for the electoral college trumping the popular vote, true enough. But the popular vote isn’t an abstract figure, but one made up of votes from individual states. It’s not very plausible to talk about winning the electoral college for a candidate several points behind. (Remember Gerard Henderson talking up a Howard win with 48% tpp?)

    Gore had a 0.5% popular vote victory. That’s narrow enough that the electoral college could go either way. But McCain isn’t getting that close.

    The real question is whether McCain can close the gap between now and the election. I certainly don’t rule it out. But by the same token, if McCain can gain a few points in that time, then surely so can Obama. And if Obama gains a few more points then you will have your 1980-esque landslide. 1980, I believe, was also a late breaking race.

    Bear in mind too that the national polling is generally more up to date than the state polling. The RCP map, based on state polling, may not reflect the true state of the race. (We haven’t seen much polling of late out of Nevada for instance.) This is where FiveThirtyEight.com takes a more sophisticated approach by trying to marry the popular vote with the individual states.

  9. [If the House can’t decide, then (I think) the President Pro Temporum of the Senate (i.e. oldest dude in the Senate) becomes President (i think).]

    No the senate itself votes for a Vice President, who becomes acting President.

    The senate would obviously vote for Biden.

    12th amendment “the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators”

    So the only thing the republicans could do is refuse to attend a vote, so the Senate doesn’t have a quorum.

  11. Well I’m looking at electoral-vote.com, and it says 3% in CO and 1% in VA and NH. Polling is not an exact science, remember? Two polling companies can poll the same state on the same day and get results 5% different. Taking poll averages to decimal places is ridiculous, even in Australia. In a country with voluntary voting it is ridiculous squared. For the purposes of the current discussion all that needs to be said is that these three states (and several others) are close.

  13. No – it doesn’t happen like that.

    The House must decide on a President first – and if the vote in the House is deadlocked, it is my understanding that the President Pro Temporum becomes President at that point.

    Only after the President is “elected” will the Senate vote on VP. In which case, you would end up with President Byrd and Vice President Biden (or Obama (or Clinton!!!)))

    Anyway, the chances of that happening is remote.

    What is clear is that Obama is up by a fair amount (I think 4.8 points in the RCP averages is a decent lead) and is doing quite well in the electoral votes race. After all, he is now ahead of McCain on the RCP averages in North Carolina!!!

  14. OK – I’m wrong 🙁

    From Wikipedia,

    The House keeps on balloting until it chooses a President. If it is deadlocked, then the VP-elect (chosen by the Senate) becomes President. If neither a President or VP has been elected, then the Speaker of the House becomes President until either the House selects a President or the Senate selects a Vice President.

    I think the President Pro Temporum of the Senate only becomes President if the Speaker of the House is unable to act in the role of the President (e.g. they are born overseas).

  15. They’re close. Sure. But McCain has a few close states on his side of the ledger too.

    Perhaps Obama’s position is overstated in Virginia. Perhaps it’s understated in Ohio. Who knows? That’s what margin of error is about.

    My argument is this: McCain’s not going to sweep all the close states if he’s still 3-5 points behind on election day.

  16. [The House must decide on a President first – and if the vote in the House is deadlocked, it is my understanding that the President Pro Temporum becomes President at that point.]
    My understanding is if the House is deadlocked, the Senate votes on who becomes Vice President. Then that person becomes Acting President.

    The President Pro Temporum becomes President if the President, Vice President, and Speaker of the House all die.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    A majority of electoral votes is still required for one to be elected President or Vice President. When nobody has a majority, the House of Representatives, voting by states and with the same quorum requirements as under Article II, chooses a President. The Twelfth Amendment allows the House to consider no more than three candidates, compared to five under the original formula.

    The Senate, similarly, may choose the Vice President if no candidate has received a majority of electoral votes [i.e. if the house is still deadlocked]. Its choice is limited to those with the “two highest numbers” of electoral votes. If multiple individuals are tied for second place, the Senate may consider all of them, in addition to the individual with the greatest number of votes. The Twelfth Amendment introduced a quorum requirement of two-thirds for the conduct of balloting. Furthermore, the Twelfth Amendment provides that the votes of “a majority of the whole number” of Senators are required to arrive at a choice.

    In order to prevent deadlocks from keeping the nation leaderless, the Twelfth Amendment provided that if the House could not choose a President before March 4 (at that time the first day of a Presidential term), the individual elected Vice President would act as President, “as in the case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.” The Twelfth Amendment did not state for how long the Vice President would act as President, or if the House could still choose a President after March 4. Section 3 of the Twentieth Amendment replaced that provision of the Twelfth Amendment by changing the date for the commencement of Presidential terms to January 20 and permitting the Congress to direct, through legislation, “who shall then act as President” if there’s no President-elect or Vice President-elect. It also clarified that if there’s no President-elect on January 20, whoever acts as President does so until a person is “qualified” to occupy the Presidency.

  17. [Perhaps Obama’s position is overstated in Virginia. Perhaps it’s understated in Ohio. Who knows? That’s what margin of error is about.

    My argument is this: McCain’s not going to sweep all the close states if he’s still 3-5 points behind on election day.]

    And if he loses Florida – which is currently a tie – he is stuffed.

  19. In 1801 the House was deadlocked between Jefferson and Burr. They cast 35 ballots before Jefferson was elected. Presumably, if they were still deadlocked when Adams’s term expired, then the President pro tem would have succeeded.

  21. [The Constitution doesn’t specify what will happen if the House cannot choose a President.]

    [In order to prevent deadlocks from keeping the nation leaderless, the Twelfth Amendment provided that if the House could not choose a President before March 4 (at that time the first day of a Presidential term), the individual elected Vice President would act as President,]

    And:

    [The Senate, similarly, may choose the Vice President if no candidate has received a majority of electoral votes [i.e. if the house is still deadlocked].]

    So that means if there is a deadlock in the House, whichever VP candidate gets 51 senate votes becomes Vice President (which would be Biden). The House can keep voting to try to elect a President, but if they haven’t come to an agreement by March 4th, the Vice President becomes the acting President.

    The only way the Republicans could stop this would be to refuse to attend the senate, so that there isn’t a 66 Senator quorum. Without that quorum the Senate can’t vote on who becomes V.P.

    All this adds up to another reason why people shouldn’t vote for McCain, else Palin could become acting President (which in this context effectively means President for 4 years).

  23. If the GOP don’t turn up in the Senate, then (assuming the House doesn’t select a President), the Speaker of the House would automatically become acting President.

    That would mean that Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the “ultra-liberal” grandma from San Francisco, would become President!!!

    Somehow, I would think that Senate Republicans would prefer a Pres. Biden to a Pres. Pelosi…

  24. Ron,

    Fair point, but primaries are notoriously hard to poll (hence the large number of Bs and reverse Bs).

    Do you (or anyone else) know of any state-wide general election results where there has been a Bradley effect in existence since the Wilder elections in the late 1980s?

    I’m asking because there have been quite a few black (and Latino) politicians that have been elected to state-wide office for both parties since then (e.g. Obama and Mosley-Braun in Illinois; Martinez and Crist in FL; the current Gov. of MA…)

  27. Let me rephrase that. The VP can assume the President’s powers if the Pres is incapacitated, as last happened when Reagan was shot. But there is no *position* of acting President. If there is no President, then the VP becomes President, not “acting President.”

  28. From Deval Patrick’s win in 2006 as Gov. of Massachusetts, he was leading in the polls in the last week by between 21 and 25%.

    In the end, he won by 20.3% – lower than what the polls were saying but well within the MOE. It’s also worth noting that the last set of polls had him up by 21, 23.8 and 22 respectively…

  30. That would appear to be a curious anomaly.

    The inauguration date was changed from March 4 to January 20 back in the 1930s. But the 12th amendment still assumes a March 4 transition.

  32. [There is no such thing as an acting President.]

    Um, yes there is. It is the person who acts as President if the President dies or resigns, i.e. LBJ when JFK was killed, Ford when Nixon resigned.

    Or, if the House can’t decide who the President should be after an E.C. tie. The V.P. acts as President, and thus is the acting President.

    “In case of the removal of the President from office, or of his death, resignation, or inability to discharge the powers and duties of the said office, the same shall devolve upon the Vice President, and the Congress may by law provide for the case of removal, death, resignation or inability, both of the President and Vice President, declaring what officer shall then _act as President_, and such officer shall act accordingly, until the disability be removed, or a President shall be elected.”

    [The President is inaugurated in January, not March.]

    We are talking about if the House is deadlocked and can’t decide on a President. How can the President be inaugurated in January if the House hasn’t decided on who that person should be? The constitution sets a deadline of March 4 for the House to decide, if it can’t, the Vice President acts as President for the term.

    I assume that means the President then appoints whoever they like to the position of V.P., like when Ford appointed Rockefeller.

    So maybe Biden could appoint Obama, then resign so that Obama becomes President. Then Obama could appoint Biden to V.P.! 😀

  33. [Well, a 3% Bradley effect would cost Obama the election as it is currently positioned.]

    Not exactly. A uniform 3 point shift would see Obama lost (on RCP averages):

    NH (4 EVs)
    VA (13)
    NC (15)
    MN (10)

    That would mean he loses 42 EVs from his current total of 301 EVs on the RCP No toss-up map.

    That would mean a (very odd looking) 269-269 tie in the electoral college, with Obama favourite to win in the House…

  34. Wrong on both counts.
    * When the President dies or resigns, the VP becomes President immediately, regardless of when they are sworn in. The swearing in only conforms the succession. There is never an interregnum.
    * The Constitution says that the President’s term expires on 20 January. The 20th amendment trumps the 12th.

  36. I am using the electoral-vote.com figures, as I said earlier. On those figures, a 3% Bradley effect would cost Obama CO, VA and NH, and thus the election. There is no point quibbling about polls – polling is not an exact science.

  37. There hav been instances in last 20 years but one off elections only and with conflicting figures as well Alot of factors need to be in sinc to create either a B or reverse B anyway , then there is always questions whther late campaigning etc altered prepost polls & like

    Advantage of Primarys is they ar current year , were within a defined voter catagory ,voters all were registered , and who turned out in huge numbers in each Primary meaning sample was large , and it affected a dozen elections within a very short period with B’s and reverse B’s vs other situations of trying to test a once off election that may hav had other counter factors anyway ….given those factors its hard to argue that such a dozen statewide electons is not a best case type methadology to say they ar in fact a possibility , andf incidently both B’s and reberse B’s …(subject to first para)…seeing thats far better test than th one off say Wilder campaign of one only electon

  38. Actually, Adam, my maths above was terrible. With those 42 EVs lost, Obama sits on 259 EVs (not 269) and it’s a clear loss…

    Anyway, we shall have to see whether the Obama surge will continue (I suspect it’s got a couple of days left in it) and whether McCain can do something to turn things around.

    As for the Bradley effect, I don’t see it happening on such a large scale to affect the election result. But then again, I could well be wrong (although I hope not…)

  39. [When the President dies or resigns, the VP becomes President immediately, regardless of when they are sworn in. The swearing in only conforms the succession.]

    Semantics! They act as President until the end of the term. They aren’t elected via the electoral college.

    Same deal if the House can’t break an E.C. tie. The Vice President acts as the President.
    [The Constitution says that the President’s term expires on 20 January. The 20th amendment trumps the 12th.]

    Got me here – for once.

  40. The whole point of the Bradley effect is that it’s not picked up by polls. So we won’t know whether it happened until Nov 5.

    This is not just a race thing, by the way. In the 1992 British election, Kinnock led in every poll, *including even exit polls*, but still lost to Thatcher. The explanation: traditional Labor voters were ashamed to admit to pollsters they were voting Tory because (a) they didn’t like Kinnock’s Welsh accent and (b) they wanted Thatcher’s tax cuts.

  41. [Anyway, we shall have to see whether the Obama surge will continue (I suspect it’s got a couple of days left in it) and whether McCain can do something to turn things around.]
    By late Tuesday night / early Wednesday our time we will know to what extent the first debate helped or hurt either candidate.

    I think it will be a net help for Obama, because he looked competent and credible, which is all he really needed.

  43. Let us suppose, hypothetically speaking, that Bush’s term expired on 20 January 2009, and neither the EC nor the Congress had succeded in choosing a new President or VP. What would happen? Nancy Pelosi would become President. She would not be in any sense an acting President. She would be the constitutional President, in every sense, for the whole four-year term.

  44. Adam,

    I also suspect the Sheffield rally and Kinnock carrying on as if he was already PM helped seal his fate.

    It’s also worth noting that John Kerry (a WASP if there ever was one) was leading in the 2004 exit polls, but lost comfortably in the end…

  48. Just as an addition to B and reverse B’s , there’s been alot of research done on subject both stats wise & more general psephologically wise , and there ar differnces of opinion for neither , for one but not other , and for other but not first one , and even dispute if dixi line is th line of demarcation

    i just looked at both oppossing camps data in lot of detail not takin sides , and thought elements of both were right , there were B’s and reverse B’s and it occured irrespective of Dixi line

    Benchmark methadology was 8% poll difference as benchmark to actual result !! which won’t cheer Obama supporters if only one factor worked one , then both may or may not , but it did apparently occur in about 12 of this years primarys Late campaigning & latte events has always clouded th methodology

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