Essential Research: 57-43

The latest Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead down from 58-42 to 57-43, remembering that this is a two-week rolling average which was half conducted before Malcolm Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson. Also included (just from the last week’s sample) are various questions on leadership and one on industrial relations (45 per cent think the government moving “too slowly”).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

762 comments on “Essential Research: 57-43”

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  2. [If either Senator Fielding or Xenephon chose to vote against the third reading the bill would fail to pass.]

    But that won’t happen, because they voted for the amendments. It doesn’t make sense for them to vote for the amendments, but then against the bill when it gets back to the senate.

  3. Well that’s what you’d think. However, the Opposition put up amendments in full knowledge that they wouldn’t support the bill with them. I believe Senator Xenephon always said he was willing to have the committee stage (where they consider the bill in detail) and reserve his vote on the third reading on this package and the Medicare Surcharge bill.

    True, though, that it seems that it would be a waste of time bothering amending a bill and then not supporting it.

  6. [True, though, that it seems that it would be a waste of time bothering amending a bill and then not supporting it.]

    Xenephon supported it BEFORE the amendments, it was only Fielding who was holding out. But now Fielding is onboard, so the bill is going to pass.

    You just had to hear Erica Abetz attacking Fielding to understand that the opposition no longer had the numbers to block the bill.

  8. 145 Generic Person – I mean this sincerely GP. For you to say that about Costello he must have been bad. If anyone else here had said that I would have thought it was bias speaking. I’m sorry I missed it now.

  9. No 157

    You wouldn’t think so listening to Kevin Rudd, Lindsay Tanner, Anthony Albanese and others pontificating on the need to steal money from the wealthy.

  11. [You wouldn’t think so listening to Kevin Rudd, Lindsay Tanner, Anthony Albanese and others pontificating on the need to steal money from the wealthy.]

    Nah, they just do that to piss you off. Class warfare has nothing to do with it.

  12. GP @ 145,

    If there is one thing that I am grateful to Howard for it is that the Australian people were spared the indignity of having Costello at the helm.

    Tonights effort by Costello was abysmal and reinforced Howard’s judgment.

  13. One of my mates is looking into installing solar panels. He asked the supplier how business had been since the changes were made by the government. His reply was that they have never been busier.

  15. [Costello is not a very convincing talker. Avoided sticking it into Turnbull over his silly recommendation.]

    He’s a worse writer. Try reading his book, it is like an op ed piece.

    I’ve got a feeling he just jotted down dot points and Coleman converted it to disjointed paragraphs.

  18. Costello on Lateline – its hard not to think he is just trying to spruik his book. Must have hoped for a best seller. He keeps harking back to his time in office and avoids comment on current affairs, except where they prove his past views right. He’s deluded over his own importance. Tony Jones is getting a bit frustrated with him: “You haven’t lost any of your skills in avoiding the question”. Funny for all the wrong reasons.

  21. No 158

    The fact is that if he really wanted the bloody leadership he would have challenged. I’m so sick of hearing the “ifs, buts, maybes” concerning the possibility of Howard handing over midterm. No-one comes to the leadership without a contest and Costello simply didn’t want one.

    I admire him for his great work as our best Treasurer, but frankly his recent antics have crystallised the opinion that he is not leadership material.

  23. [No-one comes to the leadership without a contest and Costello simply didn’t want one.]

    Yes, because he’s gutless.

    [frankly his recent antics have crystallised the opinion that he is not leadership material.]

    Yes, because he’s gutless.

  24. I realise I’m wasting my time here, but I would like people to do better than simply inflicting abuse at particular public figures. If your comment contains no intellectual content, take it somewhere else.

  27. No wonder Wayne Swann did so well against him at their debate last year.

    The worm never lies!

    Maybe Costello has dodged the leadership because in reality there has “never” been any support for him to take over the leadership.

    His colleagues would know him better than anyone and may not have endorsed him as leader, straight after the election loss after all.

  34. Surely Costello is now about the least relevant person in Australian politics we could be discussing? Unless some one starts a thrread about lazy treasurers?? Its the Mal and Julie show now!

    Wonder if Julie Bishop has learned anything from the Cossie saga. Will she ever challenge for the leadership? Or will she wait for the party to decide they need a woman up front, they then beg her to take the post, and she condescends to accept it?

  37. imacca,

    Funny day to be talking about Bishop challenging for the leadership!

    In all honesty, though, Mal’s only 50/50 to get to the next election. Not that there’s anything particularly wrong with him as a leader (he has faults, so does everyone), just that 2 years is quite a long time for an Opposition Leader to hang on.

    If JB can regain equilibrium after this week’s stuff-ups (and she probably can) and look reasonable as Shadow Treasurer, she could be in the right place by the first half of 2010. (Or after the election, which may be better for her).

  39. [In all honesty, though, Mal’s only 50/50 to get to the next election.]

    I wonder if Sportingbet is offering odds on it?

    Did anyone have money on the length of Nelson’s term?

  46. Brendan seemed to be enjoying himself in parliament today. No pressure, enjoying the attacks on Turnbull no doubt.

    I think the problem Bishop might have as leader is that she will always be compared to Gillard who as deputy is far more impressive. You could imagine Rudd would use Gillard against her and stand to the side all presidential like not deigning to lower himself to argue with her.

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