Essential Research: 57-43

The latest Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead down from 58-42 to 57-43, remembering that this is a two-week rolling average which was half conducted before Malcolm Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson. Also included (just from the last week’s sample) are various questions on leadership and one on industrial relations (45 per cent think the government moving “too slowly”).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

762 comments on “Essential Research: 57-43”

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  1. I am happy to resume discussion on the constitutional arrangements of Andorra – or perhaps San Marino, or Liechtenstein if people prefer. Would anyone like to know why Castle Liechtenstein is in the suburbs of Vienna and not in Liechtenstein?

  2. ruawake – there appears to be 2 things that you have failed to understand.

    This is “a two-week moving average”

    This was “half conducted before Malcolm Turnbull”

    Both of these things would appear to mitigate any bounce.

  3. Govt working with greens & Idps to get Luxury car tax bill passed,
    Opposition left out in the cold.

    “The Senate has rejected an opposition proposal to have the government’s planned luxury car tax increase applied only to vehicles worth more than $90,000.

    All seven balance of power senators sided with the government to vote down the coalition amendments, 36 to 34.”

  4. The Liechtenstein family, who take their name from the castle near Vienna in which they lived from the 12th century, bought the County of Vaduz in 1719 in order to give them a seat in the Imperial Reichstag of the Holy Roman Empire. The county then became a sovereign state within the Empire, and with the fall of the Empire in 1918 it was recognised as the independent Principality of Liechtenstein. The princes didn’t actually move from Castle Liechtenstein to the Principality of Liechtenstein until the Nazi annexation of Austria in 1938.

  5. Interesting responses to the “X is more honest than most politicians” question:
    Rudd 53%
    Nelson 25%
    Turnbull 25%

    Conclusion: only rusted-ons buy Turnbull at this point. He’s got all the work to do.

  6. The attitudinal research on Talcum is dreadful, sure he does better than Brenda but will this slip in the weeks to come?

    How long until the Libs figure out picking Talcum was an error?

  7. We have had three polls, one poll reported a 3 point movement, another a one-point movement and this one, unless Labor had a ‘bounce’ their way in the first week of polling, no bounce either. This Turnbull bounce is a myth.

    Looking at his mediocre personal ratings it would be easy to understand why.

  8. [How long until the Libs figure out picking Talcum was an error?]

    I think the more important question is if they do, what do they do about it?

    There’s really no one else. Who? Abbott, Mesmerelda, Hockey, Pyne?

    This is probably as good as it gets for them.

    Who would want to be a Liberal supporter with this lot to barrack for and provide constant excuses for the incredible level of incompetence and lack of talent?

  9. The Liberals problem was, as Nelson’s spill was all about trying to deal with Turnbull once and for all, the old leadership could not run anyone else. Hockey would do better, even Abbott. At least they would have had the party behind them.

  10. In regard to public perception and Turnbull’s honesty is the latest pensioner gimmick.
    Turnbull is going on about how important it is now but earlier in the year he dissed it and when in cabinet voted it down. You would think Labor would be going hard on this point with the little sting in the tail – how can you trust this man.

  11. yeah, 12 years to do something about pensions – and now the yabbering. People arent stupid. This wont pay dividends.

    The real danger for Turner’s is that Rudd is looking like actually keeping his promises in his quiet, methodical, and evidence based, boring way.

    That will hang over the Libs tilt in 2010 like a solar eclipse.

  12. If I was Turnbull, I’d be having a quiet word with the HoR’s camera crew and get them to cut back on focusing the cameras directly on him when he is seated and copping a spray from Government Ministers.

    He either looks arrogant or has a somewhat “shell-shocked” appearance and both do not fit the profile of a competent, confident leader.

  13. Wonder how Smirk feels about his brother always sticking up for

    “WORLD Vision chief Tim Costello has backed Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s decision to head to New York to talk about global poverty with other world leaders.
    Mr Costello said it would be “embarrassing” for Australia if its prime minister wasn’t at such an important meeting.
    The rest of the world who are taking this seriously would scratch their heads in disbelief,” he said.,23599,24388881-29277,00.html

  14. No 20

    What’s more embarrassing is that after all the talking about solving global poverty, more talk is still to come and still no sufficient action.

  15. They need to bring in a completely new face and play steady as you go. Hockey to me looks like damaged goods. Don’t know what Howard did to him the other year but he seems to have changed a lot.

  16. The main problem for the Libs is the bad blood between the key players from the previous Government. The Turnbull team has been played out as a win for his side and a lose for the old guard. Yet they are still around, waiting for Turnbull to falter and then move against him. Electoral poison!

    Until a few more leadership contenders have their throats cut, it’s chaos and disunity for the Libs.

    In the mean time, Rudd and Co get on with the job of Government.

    Hawkey got it right when he said, “how can you govern the nation, if you can’t govern your own Party?”

  17. [They need to bring in a completely new face and play steady as you go. Hockey to me looks like damaged goods.]

    Of course, he’s Mr WorkChoices.

  18. So GP, if Rudd is “conceited”, then what which of Turnbull’s traits are dragging him down compared to Rudd as preferred Prime Minister by 45/25? Or is “conceit” irrelevant to being preferred as PM?

  19. I think too many people have forgotten that Hockey was sacked by Howard from his first portfolio after an absolutely woeful performance and being publicly humiliated.

    Most probably Hockey was told by Howard just how much the whole Coalition Government was depending on a high level performance in IR and that his whole career hung in the balance.

    Hockey dutifully sold out his principles and proceeded to try and sell the sh!t sandwich which was workchoices. As a result, Hockey doesn’t have any credibility in the wider electorate and I suspect with his own colleagues.

    Hockey is yesterdays man the same as most of the remaining members of Howard’s front bench.

  20. All true on Hockey but Turnbull’s main problem is that the party is not behind him so he is stuck with policies that he has already criticised and this makes him vulnerable to the government. They have to pick someone from the right I would think. Fun to speculate anyway!

  21. No 32

    If they were not behind him, they would not have elected him. His supposed lack of support is a nonsensical beat up by bloggers here trying to distract from the Government’s baseless attacks on the opposition.

  22. Gillard had Turnbull nailed when she said today even as he asked the questions you can see he doesn’t believe them.

    No doubt he can’t for this parliamentary session to be over sdo he can go off and find some of his own policies (which form what George M was saying on Insiders, seem mostly to do with tax).

  23. Fine GP, I’m sure Turnbull would have no trouble bringing in his views on climate change for example, so solid is his backing. Anyone watching the Liberals will know that Turnbull’s narrow win said more about Nelson than support for Turnbull.

  24. Any leader or aspiring leader of the Libs would kill for a similar mandate from their colleagues that Rudd has.

    Unlike Rudd, any leader of the libs cannot achieve the level of authority or mandate that Rudd enjoys and consequently has to juggle a range of factional differences and somehow try and overcome a prevailing “Howard influence” which still hovers ever menacingly over the party.

    This was clearly evident in his choice of the front bench and the amount of time it took to put together.

    We could very well see a repeat of the early Hawke years when the Libs were virtually rudderless and were continually fighting over the spoils of defeat and the leadership. Many interesting days ahead me thinks.

  25. GP

    Turnbull only just fell over the line against the most dismal leader since Downer. His support was nothing to write home about. And Julie Bishop already looks like she needs to be put out of her misery.

    I quite like Turnbull (I might get banned for saying that) but he hasn’t got a lot to work with. It’s going to be a long road back.

  26. No 38

    The Liberal Party supports an emissions trading scheme. Our view has always been that we should not be pursuing the policy with needless haste.

  27. The poll responses show Turnbull as more demanding and much more arrogant than Rudd.
    So the seemingly never-ending media pieces, from a month or two ago, painting Rudd as a control freak and aggressively demanding, seem not to have rung true for most Australians. They could’ve even done him a favour now Turnbull is on the scene for comparison!
    The interesting thing, though, is how Turnbull could have generated such confidently negative responses on these two questions (59%/56%). I’d say the voters have a fair idea already of what they think of him.
    And expect the 48% “Out of touch with ordinary people” to take a hit with the completely “out of touch” Roosters howler.

  28. Turnbull is much the best leader the Libs have and they should stick with him. Whatever current polls show he is the only Lib who could pose a serious threat to Rudd in 2010 if the economy turns turtle in the wake of the Bush Recession in the US.

  29. No 44

    The ballot was always going to be close by virtue of the fact that Nelson called a snap spill. Had Turnbull waited the month or so, as was suggested by “Liberal insiders” in the MSM, he may well have secured a much better margin simply because Nelson was going from bad to worse and simply wasn’t cutting through.

  30. No 46

    Rubbish, Bryce. I don’t think mainstream Australia particularly cares which team the Leader of the Opposition or the Prime Minster follow in their occasional sporting sojourns.

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