US election minus 48 days

A new thread for discussion of matters American, as the polls return to level pegging following the Republicans’ convention bounce.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “US election minus 48 days”

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  1. Ron

    I have expressed before my own concerns with Obama, but what about my post 417? Electing McCain means reelecting a republican administration, with all the baggage that entails. Surely you can’t think that is acceptable after the past 8 years?

  2. Socrates,

    McCain is not Bush.
    Electing McCain will introduce a new administration.
    Just because you are on the edge of a precipice does not mean you will vote to jump.

  3. [McCain is not Bush]

    He’s pretty damn close

    [Electing McCain will introduce a new administration]

    Unlikely. Plenty of the current Whitehouse advisors are assisting McCain’s campaign.

  4. Possum

    So NOW you’ve finally read th article 6 posts after making unsubstantiated claims in #403 vs reality of a NYT journalistic investigation & ABC News Report

    Your credibility as a result on th issue was zero from your #403 post , and now you’ve compounded it by just reading these professional News Reports after th event

    Your over partisan support for Obama shines through in every post you make , together with an obsession to personalise to camopflage your own embarassment of jumping in in #403 with a totally false allegation it was my info when TH TRUTH was it was a NYT journalistic investigation & ABC News Report

    Issue of fitness for office, judgement , governance & character apply seeing this {OTU position is most powerful position on earth were raised in those Reports and th fact you don’t like them being raised…tough

  5. GG
    I disagree. On economics McCain is a sockpuppet with very few ideas of his own. His policy advisors come from the Bush school and so his economic policy would be a rerunn of Bush jnr economic policy. That would be bad for the US and the world, including us.

  6. Dario,

    It’s pretty clear you are voting to dive. Make sure you do a pike and twist in case you don’t survive the impact.

    Bungee jumping without a rope is what you Obamaphiles are all about!

  7. Actually the persistency of career republican office holders across administrations is proven by Bush’s cabinet. Cheney and Rumsfeld both were in the white house under Reagan. If McCain won, it would be the same again. Does anyone think that if Labor won in Australia but the PM changed from Rudd to Gillard that every staffer would be new and every policy altered? Not likely.

  8. Ron – I, like most people here, read those articles about Rezko when they came out – all those months ago. There wansn’t a lot to them then, there isn’t a lot in them now.

    The only thing that has changed in the intervening period is the intensity of your obsession with the evils of Obama.

  9. So GG, if you would vote for “experience” what is the McCain plan to solve the finanicial crisis? Cut taxes so there will be less treasury funds to restart the economy with? Invade Iran? See the Iraq war through to the death of the last innocent civilian? I see no future with him.

  10. Socrates

    Posted Thursday, September 25, 2008 at 12:04 am | Permalink
    I have expressed before my own concerns with Obama, but what about my post 417? ”

    Well first part of post could hav been interpreted as a declaration of me “non personna” , given th context of 13 preceding posts

    Second part , it is true some ex Republican ‘operatives’ will remain & thats undesirable so agree with that Its also true McCain who detests Bush & his entourage & has argued with Bush publicly , will clean out anty “Bush” loyalists , think thats also a fair call to make

    As for McCain himself , i share I think it was Dyno view (perhaps another poster) anyway that think McCain is not a bush …if I thought he was I hav posted here I’d support Obama … a point apparently treated with derison , but repeated again However I can not support any Republican anyway so can not support McCain (and I’ve indicated my non support for Ovbama PURELY on non ‘;eft’ policy grounds …despite false claims to contrary) It appears this site does not allow informal voters on principal grounds , but being th one only does not alter my views

  11. [It’s pretty clear you are voting to dive. Make sure you do a pike and twist in case you don’t survive the impact.]

    lol GG and you are just an impartial pundit with no axe to grind. Spare me.

  12. Socrates,

    The smart thing would be to collect the best and brightest economic minds and tell them to get on with it, now.

    Presidents generally set direction and let the animals get on with it.

  13. [Can you tell me what was the previous situation with Rasmussen? I am interested in what kind of a trend this poll is showing.]

    Here’s the last couple of weeks, with today’s listed first:

    Obama +2
    Obama +1
    Obama +1
    Obama +1
    McCain +1
    McCain +1
    McCain +2
    McCain +3
    McCain +3
    McCain +3

  14. Possum

    Don’t try and re -write what you wrote to avoid your own foolishness in jumping in unsubstantiated

    Your post #403 is clear , you falsely claimed th data was from my twisted mind , despite me posting a link in #393 that it was a New york Times journalistic Report your credibility on objectively addressing substance of th articles went to zero with your #403 post

    Instead of addressing what th NYT article said , you proceeded with achildish attack on me in #403 people ar free to re -read your #403

    Now after event you read them and make comment on them interwined with feline comment on me in #449 and later posts

    And still with over partisan pro Obama slant , th substance of articles of Obama’s lack of judgement , governance etc you ignore as its unpalatable to you …tough

  15. The issue of executive pays will be making most Americans beside themselves with rage. It will go very very bad for the Republicans if they pander to the CEOs. Its personal.

    If the package fails to get through it will be the Republicans that pay – as you can bet the American people will be looking for the things in it that Obama and McCain are talking about and not what was put up initially no matter what happens their bad mood will be taken out on Republicans. IMO

    “But Wall Street, its lobbyists and trade groups are waging a feverish lobbying campaign to try to fight compensation curbs. Pay restrictions, they say, would sap incentives to hard work and innovation, and hurt the financial sector and the American economy.

    “We support the bill, but we are opposed to provisions on executive pay,” said Scott Talbott, senior vice president for government affairs at the Financial Services Roundtable, a trade group. “It is not appropriate for government to be setting the salaries of executives.”

  16. [“It is not appropriate for government to be setting the salaries of executives.”]

    It is if they’re bailing you out with taxpayers money you ungreatful scum! FMD

  17. [ Ok William, it’s time for a new US thread 😉 …… read on ]

    [ McCain Calls for Debate Delay to Focus on Financial Crisis
    Updated 3:55 p.m.
    By Michael D. Shear and Robert Barnes
    NEW YORK — Republican presidential nominee John McCain this afternoon said he would suspend his presidential campaign tomorrow to return to Washington and help reach agreement on a plan to solve the financial crisis on Wall Street, and called for a delay of Friday night’s presidential debate. The Obama campaign said that the two candidates had spoken by phone this morning about releasing a joint statement on principles to govern the financial sector bailout, but that it had no plans to suspend campaigning.

    “At 8:30 this morning, Senator Obama called Senator McCain to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal,” Obama spokesman Bill Burton said in a statement. “At 2:30 this afternoon, Senator McCain returned Senator Obama’s call and agreed to join him in issuing such a statement. The two campaigns are currently working together on the details.”

    Sen. Barack Obama, who is in Florida, will make a statement shortly in response to the McCain announcement. His campaign officials want the show to go on Friday night. ]

    comments from posters following the article

    [ From the Chancellor’s Office, University of Mississippi:

    “The University of Mississippi is going forward with the preparation for the debate. We are ready to host the debate, and we expect the debate to occur as planned.

    “At present, the University has received no notification of any change in the timing or venue of the debate.

    “We have been notified by the Commission on Presidential Debates that we are proceeding as scheduled.

    “We will keep you posted as information becomes available.”

    Posted by: Anon | September 24, 2008 4:18 PM

    This is an insult to the American people. It is more crucial than ever that we hear from our potential leaders what they think about the current economic crisis, and what they want to do about it. Once again, the American populace is ignored and disrespected by the politicians. We deserve better, plain and simple.

    Posted by: SB | September 24, 2008 4:17 PM


    Posted by: DessapointedRepublican | September 24, 2008 4:17 PM

    So apparently, McCain no longer thinks the fundamentals of our economy are strong, so now he’s “suspending his campaign”?


    Posted by: ace mcfunkenstein | September 24, 2008 4:17 PM ]

  18. “It is not appropriate for government to be setting the salaries of executives.”

    The real problem is that it isn’t appropriate for executives to be setting their own salaries but effecively that is exactly what happens. See Bebchuck adn Grinstein’s work on the myth of ars-length negotiating with CEOs over salary. The reality is that CEO’s appoint directors from various institutional investors to cosy positions on boards, and then the directors agree to whatever is proposed by the CEO for salary in return. Exec salaries now average 10% of gross profits for most top 500 firms!!! This market is broken and needs regulation.

    Besides, its appropriate for governments to set salary levels in lots of situations, such as for every public servant, via awards and wage arbitration hearings, and as in this case, whereever the governmetn provides the cash.

    I especially hope they clamp down on executive bonuses. These are now so high that they act as a perverse incentive for the CEOs to take more cowboy risks with what is other people’s money. The fact they have golden parachute clauses too means that, for them its a “heads I win, tails you lose” bet.

  19. Yippppeeeee 🙂 🙂 🙂

    ” Democratic rival Barack Obama declined to follow suit, saying he would return only if congressional leaders requested his presence and said there was no reason to suspend the campaign or delay Friday night’s presidential debate.

    [ A president, Obama said, “is going to have to deal with more than one thing at a time.” ]

    The BEST line of the campaign by far 😉 …… I always knew McCain was a moron, he is just now showing everyone else that he can’t handle multi tasking 😉

  20. McCai wants to suspend the campaign for long enough to figure out some answers? Maybe he realises he needs a few months coaching to learn what economics is. Or “can we just put the election off till this thing blows over and people are happy to vote republican again?”

  21. Observation: has anyone else noticed that the ABC is very pro McCain?
    That dolt who does the breakfast show on News Radio always runs very anti-Obama stuff, and talks up McCain!

  22. Evan I don’t listen to it any more. What has been done to ABC radio in recent years is almost as bad as what has been done to ABC TV. I’m sure most of us watch LateLine but I give most of the rest a swerve.

  23. McCain’s announcement about the campaign suspension is also pretty pompous. It ignores traditional political protocol for personal gain, not the nations. Consider what he can actually do about this now:

    He isn’t president and doesn’t hold a position on any relevant finance committee. He’s just one senator amoung many, and compartively poorly qualified to deal with it. So what can he add? He has no proposal to solve it. He has never suggested any either.

    This just enables him to avoid answering questions from the press and make posturing speeches in Washington. You can’t run and hide when an issue comes along that you can’t answer, and still call yourself a leader. “No He Can’t.”

  24. Socrates, it’s tragic how much ABC Radio in Sydney has been dumbed down in recent years, to the point that commercial AM radio is sometimes better on some issues!

  25. Evan

    Agreed; its not just the bias concerns either. Do you remember back to when Radio National had half a dozen good political reporters, who gave Keating just as hard a time before Howard?

  26. Here’s the poll Obama’s camp will love: even Fox News has him ahead of McCain now 45-39!!,2933,427241,00.html

    “Suspending the campaign” is a pathetic stunt. Someone should ask McCain, if he is really “suspending” his campaign, whether he has told all his media and political advisors (not economic advisors) to take a break? I suspect the answer is no.

    When it comes to fixing this mess, “No He Can’t”. He knows it, so this just allows him to dodge questions from the press and make scripted statements. Very weak.

  27. Evan14, sorry, don’t worry, I’ve found a link for it, had to search awhile. Turned on CNN on the cable TV too and saw McCain giving a statement on this. He looks like a deer caught in the headlights, doesn’t he? 😉 …… you are right, compared to that attempt, Obama really looked presidential.

    Sorry I didn’t make more of an attempt first to find the link myself 😉 …. I’ve got in-laws visiting for a few days and I’ve been distracted 😉

  28. Between the Suspension Scam and Palin’s no-interview policy, it looks like both Brave McCain and Fiesty Palin are not prepared to answer a single question on how to tackle the world’s single biggest problem. Who would vote for these cowards?

  29. Socrates at #490

    “He isn’t president and doesn’t hold a position on any relevant finance committee. He’s just one senator amoung many, and compartively poorly qualified to deal with it. So what can he add? He has no proposal to solve it. He has never suggested any either.”

    Unless this all a ruse to try an imbue McCain with some kind of economic credentials. I wouldn’t be surprised if we hear the White House releasing the “McCain Plan” to address the financial crisis in the coming days.

  30. Grant – no doubt you are right, and that was kind of my point about scripted speeches. But this way he can completely avoid any interviews or questions. This is supposed to be an election campaign!

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