UPDATE (9.30pm): Liberals win Nedlands by 987 votes.
UPDATE (9pm): Janet Woollard wins Alfred Cove by 405 votes. Liberals win Morley by 340. Labor wins Collie-Preston by 411. Labor wins Kwinana by 300. Only Nedlands to go, where the Liberals are believed to be home and hosed.
UPDATE (3pm): Alan Carpenter resigns as Labor leader.
UPDATE (11.30am): Nationals back the Liberals. Colin Barnett the new Premier.
UPDATE (11am): Brendon Grylls to hold press conference at 11.30am.
Perth’s Sunday Times newspaper brings a remarkable account of yesterday’s deliberations by the WA Nationals’ state parliamentary party, which met to decide who it would back to form government. Appearing under the headline: “DONT YOU DARE: Nats’ boss last-ditch plea to stop WA Labor marriage”, the report by Joe Spagnolo relates that federal leader Warren Truss made a “last-ditch plea” to talk state leader Brendon Grylls out of “a shock alliance with Labor”. Agricultural region upper house MP Max Trenorden, a known opponent of any deal with Labor, is quoted saying: “I am not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it.” We will find out what that means exactly later today, after the parliamentary party puts its recommendation to the state council.
The Nationals’ endgame comes as the Western Australian Electoral Commission spends the weekend conducting preference counts in 11 seats designated as in doubt. The big news from the six counts conducted yesterday was that Labor retained Albany by a surprisingly comfortable 96 votes, while falling 64 votes short in Riverton. In North West, the Nationals fell 67 votes short of overtaking the Liberals in the second last count and taking the seat from Labor with their preferences, the final result being a 719 vote (6.9 per cent) Labor win over Liberal. Also determined were Forrestfield (Labor by 98 votes), Wanneroo (Liberal by 322) and Pilbara (Labor by 534).
Of the five seats to be counted today, two are genuinely in doubt: Alfred Cove, which the Liberals might recover from two-term independent member Janet Woollard, and Kwinana, where Labor has been gaining on independent front-runner Carol Adams in late counting. This puts the numbers at Labor 27, Liberal 24, Nationals four, independents two and two in doubt. The two confirmed independents are both in the orbit of another party: Churchlands MP Liz Constable has been promised a position in a Liberal cabinet, while Kalgoorlie MP John Bowler has resolved to work in concert with the Nationals. Nonetheless, any Liberal-Nationals arrangement will have to rely on the support of one or possibly two independents to maintain a majority in the lower house, whereas Labor plus the Nationals will equal a clear majority.
It’s the opposite story in the upper house, through which any Royalties for Regions deal would also need to navigate. While final seats remain in varying degree of doubt in all regions except North Metropolitan, the Liberals appear certain to win 16 seats out of 36 while Labor can hope for no more than 13, and are more likely to win 11. With the Nationals looking at five or six seats, the support of the Greens would probably be needed to pass a Labor-Nationals scheme that was opposed by the Liberals.
No 399
Talkon, Alan Carpenter has just resigned and accepted defeat. The technicalities and what ifs & buts no longer count.
Let us all welcome Premier Barnett! Hoorah!
William,
Can you confirm that around 182,000 (13.68%) of eligible voters in W.A. have apparently failed to vote in this election.
The WAEC pre-election costing budget was quoted as being around $15M in total for the election.
If the above-mentioned figure is anywhere near being correct, this would mean
that a whopping $9.1M in fines will be going into the State Treasury would it not?
Also when added to the entire informal vote (4 – 5% across the board) in this election, are there any evident trends that this election in particular suffered a lower
participation rate than in previous elections in W.A.?
If so, what would be your take on that?
Jasmine,
Adam makes a good case for D’Orazio, he had baggage and the Libs would’ve run Godfather ads at every second ad break if he was running for Labor.
And GP:
[And subject to my comment in No 214, the CCC report is to be released soon as well so for those hoping for a short-lived Barnett government, I’d say it’s just wishful thinking.]
Two Words – John Bowler – he gets named and shamed, and is forced resign from Parliament then there is one less vote in the alliance. Oh and add Troy Buswell if his time as Busselton Shire President is mentioned as well.
to lose an unloseable election is probably a good thing…… for the party that loses
Labor can re build from where they are…. at the least Morley was an upset which will not be repeated. I would not bet a minority govt is stable or long term
one thing of interest was the stability of the country seats where there was a
sitting mp contesting
SNIP: Defamatory comment deleted – The Management.
Liking the Menzies photo Glen. 🙂
Yeah Adam I’m pretty sure he was as cleared as anyone could be of all those allegations.
As a Labor person I always thought the superannuation stuff should have killed him but it didn’t. No-one seemed to care about that.
It was the CCC stuff and my understanding is he was completely cleared, and that is when / why he rejoined the party. The licence stuff he was completely cleared of.
Even Frank on this site, who clearly dislikes him, has stuck with vague and unproven allegations of branch stacking as the good reason to keep him out. A great factional reason to keep a factional opponent out, unproven branch stacking, but not really publicly defensible stuff.
In any event he would have easily retained a Labor seat, and that is what we lack following the election.
It is harsh but politics revolves around winning and Alan didn’t.
Nice isnt it GP, all the ALP supporters must be hoping that they end up with a decent leader and not a Nelson. But it is possible Eric Ripper may take over. I would almost pity the fool if that were the case.
See Frank I accept that Carol is the perfect example of everything that Alan got wrong, and John D is a pretty weak example (except even on your view he has spent 30 years building branches in the electorate – and yes it was work that was enough to upset the Alan choice Whitby).
But John Bowler blows your whole case out of the water. Here is a guy who had to resign from the party and the cabinet, didn’t ever come back and wasn’t cleared as far as I know – but he was chosen by the people of Kalgoorlie. Either you have to stop believing in democracy or you have to accept John B has just been cleared by the most important jury.
Jasmine, cleared by whom?
If Bowler were to resign I’d be surprised if Labor won Kalgoorlie. Whatever bad stuff he did he did as a Labor member, so if he goes down it will be more Burke-Grill-Labor-corruption headlines. Kalgoorlie isn’t a Labor town anymore.
Jasmine,
Bowler was caught red handed leaking Cabinet documents to Brian Burke – a HUGE No No- Carpenter dumped all those who messed with Burke.
It seems you are a Burke Supporter – well he IS poison.
No Jasmine it doesn’t work that way. Elections are not trials. Nixon was re-elected but that didn’t absolve him of Watergate. I realise WA Labor people are a bit upset today, but this is all rather silly.
Wayne, revenue from fines for non-voting adds up to barely $1 million at a federal election, which suggests that only six fines are paid for every 100 non-votes. Quite a few of those non-votes would be from people who have a legitimate reason for not voting (being dead, for example). State elections would have the further complication of people still being on the rolls after moving interstate. So far turnout seems to be 3 per cent lower than at the 2005 election, but that might be because they haven’t yet counted all the votes in seats where the result is not in doubt.
No 408
LOL Glen.
William,
Being dead has never been an impediment to voting in the Labor Party.
Hey dead people have a perfect right to vote, William, and they should not use being dead as an excuse to avoid their responsibility. You may be too young to remember the famous Castlereagh by-election, and the important role that Walgett cemetery (I think it was Walgett) played in that legendary contest.
No 413
Well I had to get my brother to vote for me in the NSW LG elections because I was in Fairfield for the day. I live in City of Canada Bay LGA though.
Personation! *Gasps with horror*
Well, unfortunately, the draconian electoral rules for NSW LGA elections means there is no possibility of an absentee vote, and since I was committed in another area for the whole day, 35 minutes from where I live, it was impossible for me to personally cast my vote.
To which I believe the law says: “Tough tit. Your brother has committed a serious offence. Off with his head.”
GP: Why weren’t you campaigning in Canada Bay?
‘This is rather silly’. So Adam in elections the people don’t get to chose who is the best to represent them and their choice doesn’t mean anything?
I never suggested it was a key element in a criminal trial and it is both unfair and silly to suggest I did.
Frank, yourself and others were suggesting John D was electoral poison. Obviously he wasn’t electoral gold or he’d have won, but frankly John B is in very a similar camp and was elected. Probably the observation that Kalgoorlie is not a labor town is key, but that comes straight back to my point in this election Alan = Labor. And as my posts should show I’m not upset at all, I think Labor has a real chance of building something great from here.
As for me supporting Burke well I’ve never met him. I think Dr Gallops stance to Mr Burke is now demonstrably the proper way to treat him and Carps two Burke doctrines were both a failure.
GP,
Don’t they have pre voting in NSW?
Adam @ 410
Kalgoorlie is not a Liberal seat either (unlike the electorate that Matt Birney held which was based on the town minus Boulder) Jasmine is making the point that Alan [I’m the Premier] Carpenter lost this election rather than the Labor Party.
I don’t live in WA and I can’t say exactly how WA Labor contrived to lose the election. You may be right, it may all be Carpenter’s fault, I don’t know. I’m pretty confident, however, that Labor would not have done any better if it had gone into the election with Bowler and D’Orazio as Labor candidates, and had been compelled to spend the whole campaigning defending their records, which is assuredly what would have happened.
Had the Libs not changed leaders willy nilly for the past 3 years, the Liberals probably would have won such a victory they’d have been able to govern in their own right.
Now that they are in Government, they can prove that their instability and infighting is long gone, Barnett will have the kind of power Rudd enjoys and this will be for the benefit of the Party and the State.
It is one thing to resist a questionable candidate. It is quite another to impose and also be seen imposing your own hand picked candidates. Carps did it everywhere and by and large they lost just like he did.
Dorazio wasnt an option for pre selection. His behaviour at best meant he was as accident prone as mr Bean or conversely well lets just say not a suitable candidate. The mistake was putting Reece Whitby in morley and not a local branch member. Whitby was a bizarre candidate, a half baked wannabe shock jock journo. His preselection was a disaster and we knew it. Any one could see that Dorazio would run as an independent given half a chance and he only need to poll 14% or above to cause us grief. A local candidate would have negated Dorazio and saved that seat. That we threw it away for a candidate as weak and as unsuitable as Whitby was insane. As i said previously we all share responsability for this situation because we allowed the faceless few to concoct this situation without question. A more robust decision making system will come of this result as the old factional back deals have totally failed us.
No 421
I promised a friend who was running for Fairfield Council that I would help out. He has been elected, so I believe it was worth it.
No 420
Of course it was illegal. But I need not have voted by proxy if the electoral laws were drafted with some common sense.
I agree, Whitby should’ve been pre-selected for Cottesloe against Barnett, where Whitby was a local councillor there and had a more local link to the area, but having said that Reece can also have some link to the electorate as he worked for both Ch 7 & 9 which are located in the electorate.
[but having said that Reece can also have some link to the electorate as he worked for both Ch 7 & 9 which are located in the electorate.]
I should clarify that statement by saying the Morley Electorate.
Rumpolecat, I agree completely and your views are wiser and more measured than mine, and that saves you Adam’s cheap barbs!!!! I will learn.
I deny directing “cheap barbs” at Jasmine.
I note GP’s view that he has the right to break the law if he finds it convenient to do so.
What was the shot about being silly for observing that despite his links to Burke John B had just been judged by the electorate? I’m sorry I’m assuming now it was witty observation, not a cheap shot that tried to avoid the issue by pretending I had said / claimed something I didn’t. My humble apologies.
adam dont you realise that the law is the plaything of the rich and priveledged!! if it had been a labor candidate, well heck call in the federal police. It would obviously be corruption at its worst.
Careful, last time I mentioned that in regards paraqchuting Diedre Willmont into Cabinet without being elected resulted in the self-rightous such as Average Joe calling me an ALP Hack.
i wear ALP hack as a badge of honour!!
No 434
If it were a state or federal election in which absentee votes are allowed, I would not be breaking the law. No, I don’t think it is morally turpitudinous to warrant the phony outrage.
No 437
I think your avatar cements your ALP hackery.
Colin Barnett as Premier has all the hallmarks of Chauncey Gardener.
gp no outrage, i see your point completely. By the way did your cat and dog vote as well, after all its only local elections.
Frank and Rumpole are spot on.
Carpenter fell on his arse because of his stupid attempts at parachuting candidates in left, right and centre. Had he not installed Karen Brown in Mount Lawley, I dare say Bob Kucera would still be the local member. Had he found a popular local to neutralise the D’Orazio spillage in Morley, they’d have held that seat relatively easily. Had he tried to appease Jaye Radisich rather than more or less telling her to get stuffed, she’d still be the member for Swan Hills. That’s three seats right there – three seats which would’ve kept him the premiership. Carpenter should go down as the premier to commit the most unnecessary electoral suicide since Des Corcoran.
GP,
Do they have pre poll voting in NSW.? If so, why did you not avail yourself of the opportunity to fulfill your sacred civil duties?
Couldn’t be fagged is not a acceptable response.
Whoa Glen @ 426
“Barnett will have the kind of power Rudd enjoys”?
Well he’s in Government so technically you are right. Same could be said of any Govt.
But the comparison is with a party elected in it’s own right and one dependent on a minor party plus independents.
Hardly think this is an overwhelming endorsement of the Libs.
And if you think Barnett has the kind of power Rudd wields, why would Buswell still be there?
No 442
Excepting a few candidates that I know personally, a dog or cat in Fairfield would have been of higher quality than the rabble that were elected.
No 444
Yes, pre-polling is allowed. But I did not promise to help my friend until two days prior to the election. So, it was last minute and therefore it precluded any pre-poll voting.
Jasmine, with all due respect, it is silly to say that charges of serious misconduct against a politician are somehow magically erased because they get themselves re-elected. That’s not a cheap barb at you, it’s a fact. As I understand it, Bowler both broke the law and betrayed his Cabinet colleagues and party by leaking Cabinet documents to a lobbyist, namely Burke. Is that not correct? His re-election doesn’t alter that one bit.
GP,
It is just interesting that someone like yourself who comes here and vigorously prosecutes their arguments about how people should vote, can’t be bothered following the rules that apply to you as to every other elector when it comes to voting.
Adam
It does however remind us how little the voting public are swayed by unethical conduct. I’m not sure if it doesn’t sink in, they forget or they just assume all politicians are bottom-feeders. I’ll be interested to hear what the Libs stance on Burke is. I wonder how long before he tries to make contact.