UPDATE (9.30pm): Liberals win Nedlands by 987 votes.
UPDATE (9pm): Janet Woollard wins Alfred Cove by 405 votes. Liberals win Morley by 340. Labor wins Collie-Preston by 411. Labor wins Kwinana by 300. Only Nedlands to go, where the Liberals are believed to be home and hosed.
UPDATE (3pm): Alan Carpenter resigns as Labor leader.
UPDATE (11.30am): Nationals back the Liberals. Colin Barnett the new Premier.
UPDATE (11am): Brendon Grylls to hold press conference at 11.30am.
Perth’s Sunday Times newspaper brings a remarkable account of yesterday’s deliberations by the WA Nationals’ state parliamentary party, which met to decide who it would back to form government. Appearing under the headline: “DONT YOU DARE: Nats’ boss last-ditch plea to stop WA Labor marriage”, the report by Joe Spagnolo relates that federal leader Warren Truss made a “last-ditch plea” to talk state leader Brendon Grylls out of “a shock alliance with Labor”. Agricultural region upper house MP Max Trenorden, a known opponent of any deal with Labor, is quoted saying: “I am not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it.” We will find out what that means exactly later today, after the parliamentary party puts its recommendation to the state council.
The Nationals’ endgame comes as the Western Australian Electoral Commission spends the weekend conducting preference counts in 11 seats designated as in doubt. The big news from the six counts conducted yesterday was that Labor retained Albany by a surprisingly comfortable 96 votes, while falling 64 votes short in Riverton. In North West, the Nationals fell 67 votes short of overtaking the Liberals in the second last count and taking the seat from Labor with their preferences, the final result being a 719 vote (6.9 per cent) Labor win over Liberal. Also determined were Forrestfield (Labor by 98 votes), Wanneroo (Liberal by 322) and Pilbara (Labor by 534).
Of the five seats to be counted today, two are genuinely in doubt: Alfred Cove, which the Liberals might recover from two-term independent member Janet Woollard, and Kwinana, where Labor has been gaining on independent front-runner Carol Adams in late counting. This puts the numbers at Labor 27, Liberal 24, Nationals four, independents two and two in doubt. The two confirmed independents are both in the orbit of another party: Churchlands MP Liz Constable has been promised a position in a Liberal cabinet, while Kalgoorlie MP John Bowler has resolved to work in concert with the Nationals. Nonetheless, any Liberal-Nationals arrangement will have to rely on the support of one or possibly two independents to maintain a majority in the lower house, whereas Labor plus the Nationals will equal a clear majority.
It’s the opposite story in the upper house, through which any Royalties for Regions deal would also need to navigate. While final seats remain in varying degree of doubt in all regions except North Metropolitan, the Liberals appear certain to win 16 seats out of 36 while Labor can hope for no more than 13, and are more likely to win 11. With the Nationals looking at five or six seats, the support of the Greens would probably be needed to pass a Labor-Nationals scheme that was opposed by the Liberals.
this is probably the best result…now rather than an unstable alp… nat alliance
the funds for the regions need to come from some where…..
also behind the scenes the libs will do their best to ensure no nat mps are elected
this alliance is ind libs, nats & libs and Mr Bowler which is unstable too
GP. As ruawake, notes, nice legacy. Don’t think they won’t use it.
Scott,
Only possible that Maywalds seat could fall? I would put it at a near certainty. Unless she retires gracefully in the next twelve months and gives another National a go, they’re not going to win it next election. She is getting creamed almost daily by the Tiser.
I do tend to agree though that the Liberals will struggle to win in 2012 although stranger things have certainly happened.
No 352
What is the legacy? The power to legislate for corporations was determined constitutional, and thus in the scope of the federalist model envisaged by the founding fathers.
GP
The corporations power had never been tested before, similar to the external affairs power relating to the Franklin Dam.
It gives the Federal Govt. powers that were never clear before.
GP @ 354. The ruling by the High Court gave the Fed. gov’t. the power to take over all sorts of functions that have previously been the prerogative of other levels of gov’t., for example. It hadn’t been invoked, in quite the same way, till Howard tested it in relation to Workchoices. It is the unintended consequence of how much power this gives the Fed. gov’t. that is the legacy.
howards blind obssession with wc in order to give corporate aust a slave labour market gives labor a powerful tool.
No 357
TP, for all the bitching about WorkChoices, 450,000 jobs were created whilst it existed.
The Labor Party is budgeting for job losses. A stark contrast.
Wayne Swan noted in a piece for the Sydney Morning Herald that, just as the consequences of Costello’s inflation- and interest rate- raising policies were starting to hit home he brought in the most extreme IR laws ever implemented. Costello, he says, was not the answer to Australia’s economic problems, but the cause.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/all-the-credit-none-of-the-blame/2008/09/13/1220857897265.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
We’ve gone off-topic here. If anyone wants to continue the discussion about WorkChoices can they please do so on the Morgan thread.
Excluding native title.
There have been 3 HC decisions that give the Federal Govt. huge powers over the states.
1. Smut Video v ACT Govt.
HC ruled that states cannot impose tariffs (eg petrol tax).
2. Franklin Dam
HC ruled that the Fed Govt. can enter any international agreement and the states can go suck eggs.
3. Corporations Power
HC ruled that the Fed Govt. laws relating to the vast majority of companies over-ride state laws.
[TP, for all the bitching about WorkChoices, 450,000 jobs were created whilst it existed.]
Oh please, GP. Unemployment was falling steadily at the same rate for nearly 5 years before WC. Talk about ridiculous.
No 359
Of course Wayne Swan would say that about Peter Costello? What did you expect? Cuppa, we don’t need more partisan rancour from Swan, Australia’s worst treasurer.
Oh indeedy, Thomas Paine. There has been any amount of discussion on the topic of how realistic it is to find competent politicians, of whatever stripe, to come up with ideas, will and the capacity to develop relevant and workable policy to organise Australia. I’ve had a nagging suspicion, that since the High Court made this ruling, there may come a time when some may rue it.
Any news on Alfred Cove???
William
Maybe a weekly “General Politics” thread would solve the problem?
What I said at 360 will now be enforced, i.e. comments not about WA will be deleted.
That’s exactly what opinion poll threads are. People staying on-topic is what will solve the problem.
It’s very dangerous to say “government X has a majority of Y therefore they cannot lose.” If the voters want to throw a government out, they will. Having said that, I think NSW is the only Labor government in danger at its next election, and that’s more than two years away, so anything could happen by election day. I don’t claim to know much about Tas, but I think Vic and Qld are quite safe, and SA is safe unless the water issue bites them badly.
indeed, the carpentener government had on paper a 17 seat majority
With talk of other state ALP ggovernments falling makes me laugh
NSW The Liberals should clearn the ALP up but still its not certain
ACT The ALP should hold on, maybe slip further into minority but the Liberals have no chance of an outright win
Qld Anna Bligh should win the next QLD election, I would expect a close contest but the ALP should be able to to hold on
Vic Brumby is in some trouble north of the divide but can the Liberals pick up 12 seats
SA Mike Rann should win the next election, as someone else said it was the last state to go to the ALP and will be the last to change
And to those claim Rudd will lose the next federal election, while I can pick several holes in his Government but non worthy of a change of Government.
Adam, you say Brumby looks safe and I can understand why you write that, but the evidence is that he will lose several seats north of the Divide, the question for Brumby is can he hang onto the seats in Melbourne’s East (Claybelt) and Melbourne’s South (Sandbelt)
12 seats is a big ask for the liberals but with Howard gone, and with increasing cost of living issues along with the problems with Public Transport getting worst the problems for Brumby are building.
In many ways we are looking at a situation that occurred during Kennetts second term when the rural communities stated getting their backs up while the burbs appeared happy but as 2002 showed they were more against Brumby & co than huge fans of Kennett.
The Liberals would expect to get close but may just fall short.
The thing I find Interesting with NSW, why is the Western suburbs of Sydney so soild for the ALP, I’m curious for even in Melbourne’s South & East there is a number of Liberal and ALP seats whilst Western Sydney seems to not just be ALP but safe and this is something that I find Interesting.
[SA Mike Rann should win the next election, as someone else said it was the last state to go to the ALP and will be the last to change]
In S.A. they Liberals actually have a credible opposition leader. What they don’t have is credible policies; for example, the Government wants to build a brand new hospital in the CBD, the opposition counters this by proposing to build a brand new football stadium in the CBD. The Government has planned to completely upgrade the light rail system in S.A., and to rezone land near the rail system for higher density housing, the opposition counters this by proposing that Adelaide bid against Brisbane for the Commonwealth games.
I bet there’s gonna be some poison between Labor in opposition and Carol Adams (if she gets elected). Also, has John Bowler signed any agreement with the Nationals or Liberals?
Well after William shot me down for defending Ms Radisich and the appalling way she was treated by Alan, and went so far as to suggest it is she who should keep away from politics, this afternoon sees a time where ‘our great party, the Labor Party is strong and I am confident of it finding the best way forward.’
And Frank you were extremely loyal at all times, but can you not imagine a world where Ms Radisich had West Swan; John D a labor member held Morley (I know you don’t like him but Labor history is full of people you wouldn’t like but whom have nevertheless done great things – sometimes the great things are just play their part); Bob K held a seat (either Nollamara or Mt Lawley it doesn’t really matter) and someone else held Canning.
No doubt Alan and the team of [‘experts’] (chose your own word for the Carpenter inner sanctum) around him who helped lose this election will blame the wall to wall thing (it is about all he has to use to explain how he lost the so easy to win an election) but in the hands of a real Labor person or a half competent politician we would have the scenario above, and almost certainly a Labor Govt too.
I think the best way forward has started today with Labor not forming an alliance with the Nats; and typical of Alan the best way forward wasn’t what he chose but what was forced upon him.
Such an alliance would have prolonged the damage, not just to our brand because to real labor people we are much more than just a brand (we don’t need just a media personality or two and a political consultant or two in the WA Parliament to fix all up) we are the MOVEMENT that has for more than 100 years made Australia the very best of what we are.
Yes our path as a State and Nation has consistently been slowed or diverted by the mindless conservatives, but notwithstanding them our movement has delivered consistently for more than 100 years the key elements of our great society. What could be more Labor and more Australian than the ‘Fair Go’.
So here we sit with Alan having taken half of Ms Radisich’s advice and resigned the leadership (not because he had the wisdom to listen to her words but because he lost the unloseable election) – it will be interesting to see which of team Alan have the guts for opposition; which of them have a true labor heart. Of course I’m aware that a number of real labor hearts have probably fought their all and deserve to retire now but there are a few ‘stars’ who probably weren’t wise enough
Which of Alan’s great and good will stick around for the hard work, work that is so typically Labor, work that in recent times Dr Gallop did for and with us to astound the two term Court Government and claim victory on that great night for Western Australia.
After the recent farce of an election campaign run by Alan and Co it would be easy to forget that while most people couldn’t remember three good things the Government had done, if they did remember them they were almost certainly kicked of during Dr Gallop’s time.
Now for those of you who have not been watching this might look like Monday night quarter backing (almost a week out on that I know) but Frank and others will remember my concerns expressed from the start of the campaign. There are a number who if they were decent would also be hiding with Alan (preferably out of Parliament) but we will see.
But there is hope and a future for the true believers tonight.
As for the very very talented Ms Adams it depends on who is elected leader. The right Labor leader and she’ll be back in the fold by Wednesday.
Well said Jasmine 375
Bowler is much harder because while it is unlikely the Libnats could deliver anything near to as good a paper as bad as the West to metropolitan Perth, they should be able to deliver for Kalgoorlie.
What happened in Aldred Cove and Kwinana?
Adam
The WAEC abacus broke. 🙂
I wonder how long before the Liberal’s total arrogance towards the NATS and especially Grylls is going to cause a major fracas. And I wonder how long it will take for the Liberals to try and sideline, delay etc NATS spending programs.
I hope Bishop and Co berate the NATS publicly.
re jasmine
i agree with some of your sentiments, but nobody stopped jaye from running for swan hlls. She bailed because she wanted a safer seat and or a ministry. There is certainly a lot of rebuilding to do, especially at branch level where rank and file members have been disenfranchised over the past four of five years. The ALP has become evermore insular with executive power resting in fewer hands. As a former federal candidate i dont think its fair to dump on current candidates who in most cases busted their guts but still fell short. At the end of the day the pre-selectoin issues are all of our collective responsibility. Given the inherent instability of a libs, Bowler, nats co-alition we are only a by election away from regaining power. Lets hope we can get things fixed in time.
Surely Mr Paine, Labor just has to watch out for desperate unneeded ‘regional programs’ and tell the people of Perth this is why their emergency rooms are the worst in the country.
All those false images the West has built of WA against a Labor Govt can be used against a LibNat team diverting resources to the regions.
What this election teaches, other than that your wrong if you thought 1 vote 1 value would deliver anything more than fairness, is that the Metro vote IS ALL IMPORTANT. LAbor would swap north west and pilbara for the two handfuls of metro seats in a blink of an eye.
I didn’t say Radisich should keep away from politics, I said she should run for Swan Hills. Refreshing though to hear a Labor person eulogising a former member who has just cost them a seat and possibly government by running against them and directing preferences to the Liberals (by which I mean D’Orazio). Solidarity, comrade.
William any news on Janet Woollard in Alfred Cove??
Having nominated against an endorsed Labor candidate, Ms Adams is no longer a member of the ALP, and whether she can be readmitted is a matter for the state executive I would have thought, Jasmine. I know nothing of the local circumstances, but it sets a very bad precedent for someone to fail to get preselected, defeat the endorsed candidate, and then get immediately readmitted. I know it’s happened before but that doesn’t mean it should become an accepted practice. Two of the things that have kept Labor strong all those years you referred to have been loyalty and discipline. However a brilliant candidate she may have been, and whatever her grievances, doing what she did shows neither loyalty nor discipline.
mexicanbeemer – note the time and place you said that.
Next to nobody thought the Liberals had a chance in hell at winning in WA three months ago. Not many more thought they had any better a chance three weeks ago. And yet they will shortly be forming government and one would suspect will keep power for a good couple of terms. Go back even further to a couple of months ago and everyone thought Labor was a shoe in in the NT – the government there didn’t do anything particularly scandalous yet nearly found itself out on the porch.
Adam is right, if the people want a government out then there really is no such thing as an insurmountable swing. And as has been pointed out correctly before, state Labor can no longer idly blame the federal government now that Howard is out, making it exceedingly difficult to buck pass.
oops sorry William, forgot about the on topic comment. Will move on…
Your comment wasn’t off topic, Max.
No news on Alfred Cove, but I expect the five counts conducted today to start coming through in an hour or two.
Dear Rumpolecat
As for Ms Radisich I ask you this, as a genuine labor true believer who deserved West Swan more, Rita or Jaye? If you say Rita please do tell me why.
In my mind Rita stands for all the things that meant we lost this election, while Jaye was a potential minister who had done the work in the community (even the Swan Hills voters probably wouldn’t have resented her the relatively easy West Swan after her 8 years on the ground and two come from behind wins) possibly even a future leader, essentially she was punished very harshly for not being a yes man.
History is a harsh judge and the Carps New Labor faction has a terrible start and weeks after formation is responsible for losing the unloseable. Lets hope they have to pay for that soon.
As for the rest of what you say I agree completely. Labor has all but smashed whatever weak relationship it had to local communities in this election. It was the very definition of stupid.
Why on earth as it taken the WAEC so long to count votes? Are they really that short staffed?
Seriously i know its hard to organise since Happy Carps called it so early but that it has taken more than a week to know the result is a disgrace IMHO.
If we can know the seat results by Sunday or Monday in a Federal Election but have to wait more than a week for the results of a state election is just not up to scratch.
Whoever is running the WAEC should be fired.
Glen, the closest seats in the federal election weren’t decided for two weeks. It isn’t the WAEC’s fault that the closest seats have decided the result.
I’ve had my two cents and more so one last comment.
As for solidarity comrade yes I think it would have been better for Labor to preselect Ms Adams and Mr D’orazio. And I think Ms Radisich relatively irrelevant to the outcome. But equally I consider Ms Radisich someone who could have helped build the Labor future we need from opposition, perhaps Rita will be too, we will see.
And in normal circumstances both John and Carol would be and should be totally excommunicated from that solidarity – be the lepers we turn our backs on when they passby.
But Alan and the way he ran preselections and the way he treated John and Carol is brave and strong leadership – if you win. John and Carol both represent the connection with local communities that was so missing in the Labor Campaign. They are also emblematic of the Carpenter arrogance.
Alan didn’t win – he has suffered one of the greatest defeats in Labor history, pulling loss from the jaws of massive landslide victory (if he were to have an honest moment he would say that the entire preselection process was based on the assumption of a massive landslide win to labor – but as for the honest moment I’m not holding my breath).
It usually takes a long time to count the votes fully and there were lots of close ones on this occasion. I think the system could be better however, and doubtless it will be closely examined by poeple outside the Electoral Commission this time.
By the way – Geraldton. Have they found the 1100 votes they have lost for the Geraldton recount? How can they complete the count without those I wonder?
So the Libs have won their first state election since the 1997 SA one!!! Hip, hip hooraayyy!!! An 11 year drought broken. However, if the WA Nats don’t see those royalties, the Libs could be in trouble.
Peter Kennedy of the ABC says last night’s stories of a Nationals-Labor deal were “fuelled by Liberal sources” and “Colin Barnett’s manner” when he was at the tally room last night. Nationals MPs made their decision “very late” last night. Grylls says the clincher was the situation in the upper house, which makes it interesting to speculate how different things might have been if the Greens hadn’t held out for the malapportioned six-by-six system that has delivered the Nationals five or six seats.
I don’t think you can conclusively say the Liberal Party have won the election, Lord D.
That’s not sour grapes, but a hung parliament by its very nature is a halfway house.
And Jasmine, I respect your point of view and agree with some of it – but I believe Rita Saffioti will be a very good asset for the SPLP going forward.
Um, Jasmine, I haven’t been following WA affairs in the detail you have, but a quick google reminds us that D’Orazio was dumped because he was:
“guilty of serious misconduct and appalling judgment in meeting Corruption and Crime Commission target Pasquale Minniti last May to discuss his traffic offence problems. Mr Carpenter conceded that Mr D?Orazio had finally run out of lives after this year?s ?Godfather? affair and revelations that he had failed to pay workers their superannuation entitlements and that he had driven without a licence because he had failed to pay speeding fines.”
Are you really suggesting that Labor could have gone to the election with a candidate carrying that kind of baggage? The whole campaign would have been about D’Orazio and his speeding fines.