Photo finishes (lower house) – take two

NOTE: I’m reposting this in the hope the thread in the hope it might be used specifically for commenting on the results. More general discussion can be directed to the other threads.

EXPLANATORY NOTE: Assuming no late-count surprises (which do happen), Labor needs to win four out of these five to be in a position to form a majority if John Bowler and Carol Adams support them. Morley might be a wild card, as it is probable that absent, pre-poll and postal preferences are behaving differently to the booth votes.

Riverton 8002 8034 16036 9247 9297 18544
Wanneroo 7299 7293 14592 10044* 10170* 20214
Albany 8182 8065 16247 9169 9096 18265
Forrestfield 8177 7935 16112 9307 9192 18499
Collie-Preston 8299 7883 16182 9499* 9120* 18619
* Projected vote used as two-party count progress is significantly behind primary count

Tuesday 11pm. The West Australian provides “how the parties are tallying the votes” figures from both parties. Shtuwang’s figures are the Labor ones: the Liberals think themselves 99 rather than 73 behind in Albany, 112 rather than 115 behind in Forrestfield, 29 rather than 50 ahead in Riverton and 89 rather than 93 ahead in Wanneroo. Liberals only 20 votes behind in Alfred Cove.

Tuesday 6.30pm. More count updates from Shtuwang included in the table above (the ones without asterisks). The Liberal lead in Morley has narrowed from 523 to 396 since the close of count on Saturday.

Tuesday 5pm. Shtuwang in comments says Labor leads by 151 (8673 to 8522) in Forrestfield, although this doesn’t account for the 18,444 primary votes in the count.

Tuesday 4pm. The trend seems to be running to Labor in Riverton and to Liberal elsewhere, although progress is painfully slow. Labor has had a very bad batch of 285 votes in Forrestfield go 134 Liberal and 77 Labor on the primary vote – I have their lead at 186, but apparently it’s narrower than that. The addition of 246 votes in Riverton gives McRae 116 primary votes against 90 for Nahan. My preference calculation gives Labor a slight lead, but my sources tell me they are in fact 50 votes behind. Only 156 votes added in Albany, producing essentially no change. 277 votes in Wanneroo include 134 Liberal and 99 Labor: Liberal candidate Paul Miles all but claimed victory today. Labor leads by 379 in Collie-Preston. For some reason a lot of seats have reset their absent counts to zero and started again: where applicable I am using the older figures. I am told rechecking of ballot booth votes will not be conducted until the weekend, whereas it is normally the first order of business.

Tuesday 2am. The West Australian reports a “notional two-party preferred count (which the WAEC apparently isn’t providing us with) shows Labor 57 votes behind in Wanneroo, 111 ahead in Albany, 165 ahead in Forrestfield and literally dead level in Riverton.

Monday 11pm. I’ve changed my way of doing this, so the results have been knocked about a little. To clarify: the columns on the left show the notional two-party counts from the close of election night, which disappointingly will not be further updated by the WAEC. The columns on the right convert the latest figures using the preference ratios from the notional count, notwithstanding that these might not be entirely accurate. Changes in Riverton since election night: Labor down 0.11 per cent to 40.18 per cent; Liberal down 0.19 per cent to 41.53 per cent; Greens up 0.21 per cent to 10.24 per cent.

Monday 4.30pm. 807 new votes in Wanneroo break almost exactly evenly; 619 votes in Collie-Preston narrow the margin by about 35 votes.

1.30pm Monday. New primary votes added (table above not updated). In Riverton, 603 votes likely to split 312-291 to Labor. In Wanneroo, 837 votes to split about 460-413 to Liberal; in Albany, 337 votes to split 177-160 to Liberal; in Forrestfield, 391 votes to split 208-183 to Liberal.

3pm Sunday. This post will be used to follow developments in the late count. Labor can still form a minority government if it wins four out of the above five seats, remembering that in 2005 they generally did about 2 per cent worse on absent and postal votes than on booth votes. Going on the 2005 result we could expect each to seat to have about 400 postal and 2000 absent votes outstanding, although I hear there was an unusually high number of absent votes due to confusion over the new boundaries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

602 comments on “Photo finishes (lower house) – take two”

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  1. Oh cmon, the guy needs to tone down his behavior true enough but at least he’s not corrupt?

    Look if that’s the worst Sniff has done fine he’s paid the price, and he’s lost his job as leader. Give Sniff the benefit of the doubt.

  2. Glen: I call blatant acts of sexual harrassment more than just a nuisance!
    It doesn’t say much for Mr Buswell’s constituents that they reelected him on Saturday!

  3. So Bowler is in Burke’s pocket, not worthy of being in Parliament etc etc as far as the Liberals are concerned, yet they go cap in hand to him like starving mendicants when the need his vote, and are prepared to offer him the speakership no less.

    There are the Liberals for you all to see, ladies and gentlemen, arses bared.

  4. Does any body have any info re Morley. Morley like many seats on the night that had strong independents was a shamozzle because local WAEC staff has to guess at which 2 candidates would be 1 and 2. I hear some booths went Whitby and britza while some may have gone Whitby dorazio. This would totally throw out the 2pp vote. the WAEC site has got bugger all data out there on Morley. Any scrutineers willing to update us!

  5. To Mathew Cole – whilst you’re right that this will be the first official minority government since the 1910s, technically the last few months of Carmen Lawrence’s tenure can also be classed as one after the resignations of Frank Donovan et al.

    At the time I distinctly remember the possibility at one point that the government could have fallen on a confidence vote.

  6. Talkon #108, WB #109:

    Looks like I need an education in history. Oops. Still, given that when I was 12 I was hardly like to be interested in politics, the point remains – it can be unstable to have minority governments.

  7. I’m thinking ALP 23 seats + Collie-Preston, Kwinana, Forrestfield and Albany = 27.

    For the Liberals its 23 + Riverton and Wanneroo = 25

    4 Nationals and 3 Independents (2 of which are conservative, 1 labor)


    Labor side = 28
    Liberals side = 27

    Therefore, Nationals are crucial. I highly doubt Labor will be able to govern just with the support of independents.

  8. just looking at the news today, and they have a heap of people counting upper house votes. You’d think the first priority would be to sort out who has won the election.

  9. Glen #116:

    However, Labor’s margin in Wanneroo is paper-thin, and probably won’t stand up to the postal/absentee votes.

  10. Morely

    FFS it’s MORLEY !!, It’s bad enough when Eastern Sataters who come to Perth for our Telethon pronounce Mandurah an Man Doo Rah.

  11. Glen #120:

    Don’t start. When people are blowing up, pouring petrol in the vicinity is generall considered to be foolish (and expensive, with the current prices of the stuff :))

  12. I think Frank is just upset the ALP are behind in M O R L E Y.

    No it’s because despite everyone else, includin other non WA people spelling it correctly, you STILL get it wrong 🙂 It’s like people who spell Labor as Labour – it’s a pet peeve of mine.

  13. Frank i have lived in WA, i made a mistake big deal. Have i ever wrote Labour instead of Labor?? No. Give me abreak.




  14. Glen #124,

    If, as looks likely, Kwinana can be added to these, then things are still as clear as mud. I believe that it adds up to 28 ALP, 24 Lib, 4 Nat and 3 Ind, at least two of whom are prepared to support a Barnett Government.

    Yuck. 🙂

  15. William, the 2PP count on the WAEC site for Wanneroo is not all booths. It does not include the Crossways Uniting Chuch booth in Wanneroo, which voted 50% in 2005. That means the figure is probably worse for Labor than is being reported.

  16. Are people claiming Kwinana on the basis of Antony’s website, which I presume is an estimate/prediction? Or is there other real data that people are using?

  17. Also North West could be close one, if the Nats overtake the Libs, but from all accounts Labor will probably win it.

    Also Alfred Cove could push them to 25 seats with Liz Constable and 4 Nats = 30 and a majority. I wonder if Woollard will hold on, nevertheless the Libs would love to have that seat back.

  18. Glen give it up you are boring us.

    The Libs Can NOT form a legitimate government they have won less seats than Labor and will need support from not only the Nats but a bunch of independents.

    Please stock up on Kleenex, looks like your lot will be out for yet another 4 Years.

  19. I admire your loyalty LaborVoter but I think the balance of probability is still that Lib+Nat+Constable+Woollard=30, and we are out. It’s not a done deal yet but we will need all the breaks in the late counting.

  20. LV #130, you are kidding yourself if you think:

    1. a minority Liberal government isn’t a material prospect at the moment;
    2. it will be 4 years before another election is held to clean this mess up.

  21. It’s not trolling it’s a matter of FACT.

    FACT 1: Labor has won the most seats therefore can quite rightly claim to be the legitimate winner of the election

    FACT 2: The Liberals can’t form a government without all the Nats and almost all the Independents

    FACT 3: A Liberal/National/Independent government would be about as stable as a stack of cards in a cyclone.

    The media has had it’s big anti-Labor rant, the Federal Libs have had their usual cry but when all the votes are counted and the chips are down and it comes down to the REALITY of the situation, LABOR HAS THE MOST SEATS and is the only acceptable stable government possible.

    You Lib/Nats/Independents/Duct-tape coalition supporters are providing quality giggles tho I must admit.

  22. Carps may try with a Brian Burke associated MP Bowler and an angry disendorsed ALP independent but they would lose a motion of no confidence with Woollard and Constable + 24 Libs and 4 Nats and thus the Governor would call on Barnett to form a new Government.

    Enjoy the next 4 years LaborVoter.

  23. So it looks like Riverton is the key? If ALP wins, then they govern in their own right (with Labor independents). Unfortunately, I think this is over 50% likely that ALP will win Riverton.

    (Unless the Nats overtake the Libs in North West – in which case it’s back to the Nats deciding government)

    I think the WAEC is being silly not to put a progressive notional total for the each of the seats.

  24. GLen # 135 – yes she could be a wild card if you judge her by her comments on the news. Would she really be disgruntled enough to help the Liberals? Unlikely I think.

    I can’t recall which channel this was on, but she said: “they (Labor) had their chance twice” (That’s obviously about her rejected preselection)

  25. CH10 and she said she was essentially happy of the election result. Adams while not naturally willing to back the Libs will be even less inclined to back the ALP after their ‘Karl Rove’ job on her during the campaign.

  26. Just saw Grylls on the 7.30 Report. He stated he does not want a ministry, so it looks like Barnett’s bribe of deputy premier has been rejected.

    Carpenter was on as well saying he had “informal” talks with Grylls about a coalition months ago.

  27. In theory yes. But she is one unhappy lady, and it appears she was rejected twice for preselection. Me Tinks she is holding one major grudge.

  28. Just saw Grylls on the 7.30 Report. He stated he does not want a ministry, so it looks like Barnett’s bribe of deputy premier has been rejected.

    That’s always been Grylls stance on any deal.

  29. So for whats it worth… i have done some extrapolation using:

    1. the primaries as of start of today
    2. the notional 2pp from end of day saturday (to get preference ratio)
    3. the updated primaries
    4. votes left to count…

    … and here are my predictions:

    Labor hold North West relatively clearly.

    Labor hold Collie but margin halves.

    Liberal win Forrestfield just

    Liberal win Albany a little more easily

    Liberal win Wanneroo fairly easily (several hundred votes)

    Liberal win Morley (several hundred votes)

    Riverton too close to call.

    By my calcs that leaves 27 Labor plus Labor Inds, 27 Lib plus Lib Inds, 4 Nats, and Riverton.

    If this holds true Riverton won’t matter.
    Nor do the results in Kwinana and Alfred Cove.

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