Newspoll: 50-50; Westpoll 51-49 to Labor

The last polls of the WA election campaign are in: 50-50 in Newspoll, 51-49 to Labor in Westpoll. The respective samples are 1802 and 402. Westpoll also has marginal seat polls of around 400 voters, showing the Liberals leading 54-46 in Scarborough, 56-44 Kingsley, 59-41 in Kalamunda and 52-48 in Collie-Preston, while Labor leads 50.5-49.5 in Riverton. None of these seats are must-wins for Labor.

The two-party figures conceal a collapse in the Labor primary vote, put at 35 per cent by Newspoll and 37 per cent by Westpoll (compared with 41.9 per cent in 2005). However, much of the lost vote is leaking to the Greens (12 per cent in Newspoll and 11 per cent in Westpoll, compared with 7.6 per cent in 2005) and coming back as preferences. Newspoll records by far the worst ever personal ratings for Alan Carpenter, with 42 per cent satisfied (down seven points) and 48 per cent dissatisfied (up eight points). Barnett is on 40 per cent and 43 per cent; Carpenter still leads as better premier 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Westpoll has the latter measure at 47 per cent for Carpenter and 27 per cent for Barnett, suggesting its smaller sample might be skewed to Labor.

Interestingly, Tony Barrass of The Australian talks of “Newspoll’s additional analysis in the 10 most marginal Labor seats” which “reveals an average two-party Labor vote of 48 per cent”. That amounts to a swing of 4 per cent, which would cost Labor nine seats and government if applied evenly across the 10 (unless John Bowler wins Kalgoorlie, as some are suggesting). However, Robert Taylor of The West writes that Labor are holding up relatively well in the southern suburbs, suggesting they should retain Jandakot and maybe even Riverton.

This raises the question of which seats are dragging up the average. Expectations are that John Castrilli will perform very strongly in his bid for re-election in Bunbury. It has been observed that Labor are struggling in the northern suburbs, which Westpoll backs up with a 6 per cent swing in Kingsley. This might have significance for Ocean Reef and Joondalup, notwithstanding that Labor has heavily targeted those seats while abandoning Kingsley. A Labor win in Jandakot could thus be cancelled out by a Liberal win in a northern suburbs seat further up the pendulum. That might mean Joondalup or perhaps Wanneroo, where new developments have been breaking out like acne over the past four years. Most of these have been concentrated around the new suburb of Tapping, whose booths split about 57-43 in favour of the Liberals at the federal election. Alan Carpenter could be found there yesterday campaigning at the local primary school.

Boy, this is going to be fun.

In the upper house, strong Greens polling suggests they should win four seats, although they have been disappointed before on election night. That should reduce Labor to 13 seats out of what is likely to be a combined “left” minority result of 17 seats out of 36. My tip for the 19 seats of the “right” is 14 Liberals, three Nationals (also performing strongly in Newspoll, confirming anecdotal evidence) and two Family First.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

288 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50; Westpoll 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 6
1 2 3 4 … 6

  4. On the 2PP figures provided, the Newspoll would give Labor a clear win.
    But the breakdown is far worse for them than the headline and points to a change in government.

    1. The drop in the ALP primary vote from 42% to 35%. Perhaps the leaked ALP polling was right after all. Its gone to the Greens, but the question is if this will stick today or is just a halfway house for the Libs (or other minors which could leak to the libs as preferences). If these new Green votes are protest votes, they may not break as strongly to the ALP as ideological Green voters.

    2. The preference allocation seems to be generous to the ALP. It gives 10/12 (83.3%) of the Green prefs to Labor and 50% of the Ind/Minors. Given the large increase in the Green vote (dilution of hardcore left supporters), 9/12 would be more likely. Since most of the Minors (FF, CDP,ON) are on the right, as are most high profile independents, 50-50 looks wrong also. It could be 6-4 or even 7-3. I read somewhere (Antony Green?) that last time the non-Green minors broke 75-25 to Libs. So the headline result should be more like 52-48, which represents a sizeable swing pointing to a lineball result.

    3. ALP primary down 6.9% and LNP up 3.7% on 2005. Yet the TPP changed only 2.3%. Even though most has apparently gone to the Greens, surely this points to bigger swing than this.

    4. Prefered Premier. 48 -35 is not bad for an opposition leader. Indicates the Libs may have overcome their leadership issues in the public mind.

    I’ve been of the opinion that the ALP will be returned fairly easily (for one the Libs should be down in Albany & Kalgoorlie even before they start looking at gains). This Newspoll dosen’t point that way though.

  6. The 7% swing may well occur across the northern suburbs, but I doubt anywhere else. I have to go and vote – so much time and so little choice.

  11. Darn,
    When Betfair has a decent amount of money being transacted they are by far the most fair dinkum of all the agencies – because they are an exchange, not just one bookie setting a price. Also the house’s cut is minimal.
    Unfortunately, though, from the prices quoted it looks like there is not enough volume in the Betfair market for this election – so the quoted prices will be pretty meaningless (a bit like a quoted share price when no-one is buying or selling the share).

  13. 111 Dyno very true with the other advantage that with Betfair you can bet for or against either party whereas with the others you can only bet for a particular party.

  14. Just Voted at Herne Hill Primary School Big Banner at the front gate saying Vote Labor and This Scholl will be Upgraded with a pic of Giffard and Carpenter, along with another ALP banner saying Vote Labor and we will bill the New Midland Hospital

    Libs have their usual scare tactic signs, though smaller.

    I did my bit for stirring the pot by have a sign advertising a public meeting on a development application for a Farmers Market removed because it had no authorisation.

    Got HTV from ALP, Lib, Green and Christian Democrats, no FF HTV at all.

    Today’s West doesn’t fill me with Confidence but we will wait and see.

  15. I can’t wait for the next Queensland election where Independent, Labor and Liberal people will be able to not only bet against the Pineapple Party but for Labor, if they want, depending on their worldview. That should put some volume in the Betfair market.

  17. Dyno (111)

    I agree with a lot of what you say, but am still not convinced that the serious political punters (the ones that will bet $10,000, $20,000, $50,000 or $100,000) would do it through Betfair – mainly because of the point you raise – that there is not enough in the pool.

    Does anyone know what the odds with Centrebet and the others are today?

  18. William,

    In which 4 UH seats are you tipping the Greens?

    I would be guessing North Metro (Greens getting close to a quota), East Metro (likely to be plenty of ALP overflow) and South West, but not sure about South Metro vs Mining & Pastoral?

    The kick in the teeth for South Metro would be a small crash in the ALP primary (rather than a big one) bringing the quota from the low 3s to the high 2s – would need to get down to maybe 2.7ish for the Greens to take the 3rd ALP seat?

  24. Anyone have background on whether booths are well staffed by party workers in the key seats?

    Yep, that is indeed the case, I, as an ALP member will be manning a booth in swan Hills this afternoon.

  25. Either it is going to be a big protest vote and Barnett will sweep in or Carps will hold on by a whisker by a couple a seats, hold onto your hats everybody!

  26. Either it is going to be a big protest vote and Barnett will sweep in or Carps will hold on by a whisker by a couple a seats, hold onto your hats everybody!

    For once I agree wityh you Glen, it’s going to be a nailbiter.

  30. This is my final prediction: Labor 31, Liberals 22, Nationals 4, Independents 2

    I just voted down the road in Alfred Cove and was amazed that I couldn’t find a Labor HTV. Apparently there was nobody handing them out, although there was family first and independents. Very little Labor effort, with Liberal banners almost everywhere. Well, I guess Labor have little chance of winning the seat after all.

  31. Voted in Mount Lawley – the local school looks like a marginal (first time ever – we never get anything). The school was plastered with Labor and Liberal materials mainly positive (like the people above described) and a couple of small Liberal negative messages. There were then hordes of blue-shirted Liberals and a far fewer Labor types.

    I then took a trip to Nedlands to pick up my girlfriend and have some brekky. We stopped so she could vote on the way. A similar pattern (identical materials to Mount Lawley) – hordes of Liberals (in matching turquoise shirts) shouting ‘Bill Marmion, Liberal Candidate’. Libs had covered the school with their materials. Walker had one guy in a dark blue shirt and two signs. Labor guys looked depressed though the Greens were cheerful. Incidentally, Greens are preferencing Labor above Walker in Nedlands so she will have trouble.

  32. Labor have not bothered with Alf Cove at all this time. It’s not the media circus it was in 2005, either. Last time around their candidate put in a much bigger effort (enough to scare Janet at the crucial cut) but this time their cardboard candidate has been invisible.

  33. Yes Mumble does slightly pick Libs based on an overall State view, and it appears Newspoll THIS time have correctly done bulk pref allocations hence his uncerain Lib prediction

    However think if one breaks that Newspoll up , Labor actualy leads on a 2PP basis in Perth by 1% so if Newspoll ar corect and votes spread reasonably , then still tink Labor should still scape in by 2 to 3 seats

    Must say Carpenters ‘personality’ & concentration on ‘big picture’ rather than ‘bread & butter’ issues has completely disappointeed me from start of campaign & hurt th Labor vote alot

  34. If Choc from the previous thread is still around, the 5.1% margin I calculated for Southern River does not include any of the Gosnells Senior High booth, so his comment about the 5.1% margin being skewed by this is not correct.

  35. And if he wants to check the calculations, they were all included in a publicatuon I prepared for the WA Parliamentary Library two years ago.

  36. Albert @ 120 -the unions that don’t have axes to grind against Labor usually do a good job of staffing winnable booths. Last state election I watched in awe as the LHMU ran a booth in Girrawheen like a military campaign. The sole Liberal HTV guy uppped stumps before midday, saying he had only been paid to do two hours, so he was off. I couldn’t believe they’d have to pay people to staff their booths.

    Osborne Community Centre (Balcatta elecorate) was decked out last night in mostly ALP banners and posters. I think their booth captain must have spent the night in his car parked on the footpath right outside. He was very interested in the monochrome A4 page I received on Wednesday outlining the local Lib candidate’s pitch, but without any authorisation statement. Said: “I’ll ring John” (Kobelke) and took my contact details. I found a Barnett poster blowing down a nearby laneway, so I stuck it where it belonged (wouldn’t want the Libs to get busted for littering).

  37. Hi pollbludgers, this is not a joke, I am a 21-year-old voter, totaly undecided on who I should vote for? I live in Riverton, so I know my vote has some serious sway over who may or may not hold government? I dislike Tony McCrae (seems slimey and a little too left wing) but I also have concerns about the Liberals anti-7 day/late night trade stance, and feel the Libs are way to socially conservative. But I also feel that uranium mining should go ahead in WA… I have Libertarian leanings. Who should I preference. Liberal or Labor?

  39. Re: Anyone have background on whether booths are well staffed by party workers in the key seats?

    Well, I have been in two marginals this morning (Kalamunda and Darling Range) and I did notice significantly less volunteers for both major parties and significantly more volunteers for the greens than in last years federal election.

    Other differences to the Fed election was the lack of early voters and the lack of general anger, both seen a year ago.

    Apathy would best decribe the mood- do i vote for the one doing a bad job or the one who can hardly fill out the job application???

  40. 131 SR: You reckon Labor had a go in Alfred Cove last time? I lived in Mt Pleasant at the time and saw nothing of him (except for meeting his mum at the polling booth)… only the circus between Woollard, Kierath and Jackson. (Especially the fracas with the posters in the shop windows at Applecross… hoo boy that was funny.) They did more than 2001 (they didn’t run a candidate to help Doug Shave get his arse handed to him), but not much more.

  41. BBD @ 138 – yes, someone last time around (Fed 07) brought up the old anecdote equating early voting with mood for change, and you could feel a very tangible mood for change in the air. This time my spidey senses are not tingling. The papers seem to be calling a late shift to the Libs but I’m not convinced.

  42. Labor didn’t have a go in the true sense (never gonna win) but I did at least get some campaign material from him, and they ran a few ads in the local papers. This year, zip.

  43. Ryano @ 136. “Who shall I preference, Liberal or Labor?”

    You are 21, pro-uranium, you think McCrae is too left wing, and the Libs too socially conservative. Who the hell is getting your # 1 vote? At the risk of breaching the electoral act, I suggest you vote informal, if at all.

  44. Ryano: you sound like a Democrats voter, except perhaps for the uranium mining. It’s a shame that party went belly up.

    If I was in Riverton, I’d preference McRae, but with deep, deep reservations. Anyone aside Mike Nahan, I’d vote for – we need less corrupt ex-ministers in the government. Trouble is, if the Libs win, Nahan will become a minister and privatise anything that looks at him wrong. The kind of thing that has worked so badly in Victoria. If McRae wins, he’ll probably be a quiet backbencher who does what he’s told – it could be worse.

  45. Ryano

    #136
    September 6th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
    “Hi pollbludgers, this is not a joke, I am a 21-year-old voter, totaly undecided on who I should vote for? I live in Riverton”

    Hello Ryano , at this late stage it seems no Party has impressed you & th policys you quoted ar a diferent mix of Labor & Liberal ones

    Sugest go with your own instincts as they’re probably right for you personaly

    IF still undecided , look at OVERALL policy principals of both major Partys rather than an individual candidate

    Therefore sugest look at both Partys main sourse of financing because there Executives and Candidates and overall policy emphasis generally follow th money LiberalParty gets almost all donations from private enterprise business’s and very little from Unions , whereas Labor gets most donatons from Unions but also a lot from Business Liberals policeys generally ar pro private enterprise as prime focus with employees they assume will benefit by trickle down efect , whereas Labors policy focus is on workers & there equity/public services provided but also taking bussiness’s eseential role in th econamy into consideration as a big factor in growth/employment needs

    If you wish to hav a commercial trading entrerprise or be a billionaire vote Liberal they’ll more likely look after you

  48. I reckon that this election could go either way.

    We know that the Government reeks of corruption and voters might resent the snap poll (as we saw in the NT last month), while the Opposition looks utterly incompetent. But which way will voters go?

    I wouldn’t be surprised if we see swings going different ways in different seats.

    This election might go all over the place.

    Visit my blog page for my thoughts on the WA poll in more detail.
    http://au.360.yahoo.com/wordsofwarren

    I watch with interest!

    W

  49. As an interesting, if unrelated, aside:

    For those in the republican movement, whose main argument is that Australia does not have an Australian head of state, I advise that you read the following article:

    http://www.norepublic.com.au/images/stories/quadrant08mayhos.pdf

    It references the oft-forgotten 1907 High Court decision (presided over by the founding fathers of the constitution), which specifically states that the Governor General is the Constitutional Head of the Commonwealth. (R v Governor of South Australia [1907] HCA 31)

    Since the Governor General has been an Australian citizen since 1965, the argument underpinning the republic collapses in full and should be ignored as the arrant nonsense of an arrogant former PM.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 3 of 6
1 2 3 4 … 6