Newspoll: 50-50; Westpoll 51-49 to Labor

The last polls of the WA election campaign are in: 50-50 in Newspoll, 51-49 to Labor in Westpoll. The respective samples are 1802 and 402. Westpoll also has marginal seat polls of around 400 voters, showing the Liberals leading 54-46 in Scarborough, 56-44 Kingsley, 59-41 in Kalamunda and 52-48 in Collie-Preston, while Labor leads 50.5-49.5 in Riverton. None of these seats are must-wins for Labor.

The two-party figures conceal a collapse in the Labor primary vote, put at 35 per cent by Newspoll and 37 per cent by Westpoll (compared with 41.9 per cent in 2005). However, much of the lost vote is leaking to the Greens (12 per cent in Newspoll and 11 per cent in Westpoll, compared with 7.6 per cent in 2005) and coming back as preferences. Newspoll records by far the worst ever personal ratings for Alan Carpenter, with 42 per cent satisfied (down seven points) and 48 per cent dissatisfied (up eight points). Barnett is on 40 per cent and 43 per cent; Carpenter still leads as better premier 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Westpoll has the latter measure at 47 per cent for Carpenter and 27 per cent for Barnett, suggesting its smaller sample might be skewed to Labor.

Interestingly, Tony Barrass of The Australian talks of “Newspoll’s additional analysis in the 10 most marginal Labor seats” which “reveals an average two-party Labor vote of 48 per cent”. That amounts to a swing of 4 per cent, which would cost Labor nine seats and government if applied evenly across the 10 (unless John Bowler wins Kalgoorlie, as some are suggesting). However, Robert Taylor of The West writes that Labor are holding up relatively well in the southern suburbs, suggesting they should retain Jandakot and maybe even Riverton.

This raises the question of which seats are dragging up the average. Expectations are that John Castrilli will perform very strongly in his bid for re-election in Bunbury. It has been observed that Labor are struggling in the northern suburbs, which Westpoll backs up with a 6 per cent swing in Kingsley. This might have significance for Ocean Reef and Joondalup, notwithstanding that Labor has heavily targeted those seats while abandoning Kingsley. A Labor win in Jandakot could thus be cancelled out by a Liberal win in a northern suburbs seat further up the pendulum. That might mean Joondalup or perhaps Wanneroo, where new developments have been breaking out like acne over the past four years. Most of these have been concentrated around the new suburb of Tapping, whose booths split about 57-43 in favour of the Liberals at the federal election. Alan Carpenter could be found there yesterday campaigning at the local primary school.

Boy, this is going to be fun.

In the upper house, strong Greens polling suggests they should win four seats, although they have been disappointed before on election night. That should reduce Labor to 13 seats out of what is likely to be a combined “left” minority result of 17 seats out of 36. My tip for the 19 seats of the “right” is 14 Liberals, three Nationals (also performing strongly in Newspoll, confirming anecdotal evidence) and two Family First.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

288 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50; Westpoll 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Hello Generic Person

    #145

    Hope you noted you actualy wrote to yourself there

    Also hope that as you refer to posters by number , which incidently I hav no objection to , as noted previously your number addrssing is OK except that “number 99” is yours

  2. I’ve just had a look at the WA state voting intentions over this year and pieced together the threads of polling available during the campaign, and it seems something disastrous has happened to the ALP primary vote during the campaign.

    2005 election ALP 41.9 L/NP 39.3 GR 7.6 OTH 11.2 TPP 52.3/ 47.7 pref flow was 55% to ALP

    2008 polling ALP 41.5 L/NP 36.5 GR 14 OTH 8 TPP 53.6/ 46.4 @ 55% flow to ALP

    Campaign 1st half ALP 41.3 L/NP 43 GR 9.9 OTH 5.9 TPP 50/50 @ 55% flow to ALP

    Campaign 2nd half ALP 37.1 L/NP 43.5 GR 10.9 OTH 8.5 TPP 47.8/52.2 @ 55% flow to ALP

    Clearly there’s been a collapse of the ALP primary vote from the 41.9% they achieved in 2005; the 41.5% they were polling for 2008; and the 41.3% at the start of the campaign. They now sit at a dangerous 37.1%. Whereas the L/NP jumped to 43% at the start of the campaign and have stayed there for the duration.

    As for the TPP flows, the ALP achieved an overall 55% in 2005, which could have been reached with a 75% flow from the Greens and 42% flow from the Others. Applying those specific flows to this campaign would have delivered:

    1st half campaign 51.2/48.8 ALP/L/NP

    2nd half campaign 48.8/51.2 ALP/L/NP

    The second scenario has the ALP losing. However, the saving grace for the ALP is: of the 4.2% primary vote they lost in the campaign only 0.5% went to the L/NP, and 3.7% went to minor parties and others. You would expect most, if not all of that 3.7%, to come back to them as preferences which would deliver them a TPP of over 50.5%. Which should be enough to win.

    As for how the individual seats will play out – I have no idea. Living in NSW as I do, gives one more than enough circus entertainment without having to cast one’s eyes westward!

  3. Sorry pollbludgers, those tables all looked nice and neat before I posted! But I’m sure you’ll be able to read them easily enough.

  5. No 149

    Good pick Ron. LOL. I was referring to your post @ 144 but I suspect WB deleted something and thus the numbering is out of whack.

  8. My dear old mum handing out how to vote cards for Stephen Walker (Independent) in the LC for South Metro has told me that the ALP people at her booth were wearing blue shirts almost identically to the ones worn by the Liberals there….a little dishonest and it smacks of desperation IMHO!

    While of course it would be sweet to see the Tories win something, 1V1V may end up being the only thing keeping the corrupt Carpenter Government in power.

  13. Will there be an internet stream like the NT election?

    Or will us folk not in WA and without Pay-TV be forced to lisen to the radio stream?

    We want Antony…

  15. Ryano if your still here vote conservative- it seems to be your genre ignorant or selfish. You’ll find at least one of those ideals in every good conservative. ask not what you can do for your country, but what your country can do for you, how much you can get and screw everybody else.

  16. Both the radio and tv coverage will be streamed on the web from 6pm Perth time. The buttons for it will go up at 6pm western time, the same time as the web results service starts publishing.

    They don’t put the streaming buttons up until something is available.

  17. Glen
    I just voted myself at Wilson Community Hall and was surprised to see the ALP workers in blue t-shirts, the Libs in yellow and only one other person handing out htv (which I never take as a matter of principle – I don’t need anyone else to tell me how to vote – take note Ryano).
    Seemed a bit odd to me and I did a bit of a double take on the colours.

  19. Hello from sunny Melbourne!!

    This looks an Interesting Election! this looks like being the closet election since the 1999 Vic! I’m looking at these polls and wondering if as the polls show there is a swing on I’m wondering what seats could defly the swing and if there is a bolt out of nowhere which seat could fit that and why!

    I’m tipping a narrow win for the ALP!

  23. Thanks Anthony!!

    I’m not sure but how could anyone think the live streaming would be up before it becomes live scary thing is they vote HAHAHA!

  27. Thanks to Ron, Bird of paradox and Ozymandias for your responses. I’ve got some food for thought, I take my vote extremely seriously. Both major parties are in a sad state of affairs, and the fact that I am/was undecided with -4 hours left to vote says something…. I think with very, very, very deep reservations I will preference Tony McCrae. It comes down to the trading laws, unfortunately and ironically if the Liberals stood as a more economically liberal party here in WA I would have gone for Mike Nahan (Liberal). That and the fact that Mike Nahan (being an American expat and former head of a conservative think-tank) is probably gunning for the Republicans in the US. Yes that’s right, I’m voting against a candidate, partly based on the US election, in the WA state election… go figure!
    But if the conservatives won and Mike Nahan won, the libs may adopt a better fiscal position, but again their social conservatism sickens me. I’m so torn, but I guess the Labor option is less of a gamble.

  29. If the Libs go down, i hope at least they win Nedlands and Alfred Cover, damn independents taking away Liberal seats!

    Also considering the Nats will most likely be down 1 MP to 9 in Federal Parliament today, shouldnt Truss and Nelson work out a national merger of the two parties before every other Nat seat turns gray.

  30. “yes just follow the yellow brick road”

    With Downer as Dorothy, Cossie as the lion, of course, Johnnie as tin man and Ruddock as the man of straw. Brendon as Toto.

  31. Aristotle

    #150

    That was alot of work you’ve put into trend analysis & sure everyone including me is appreciate It is true Labors prinmary vote has dopped overall alarmingly due partly to a poor electon campaign , Carpenter ‘personality’ factor and policy emphasis wrongly on ‘big picture issues’ rather than ‘bread & butter’

    However I’m more optimistic than you on curent figure because I not take notice of Westpoll and rely on Newspoll which shows overall 50/50 However split shows in Country Labor down to 26% on Primarys down 7% and Libs/Nats up to a massive 60% oon promarys up 9% , making a net Country movement of 16% …which has skewed th overall State figures

    IF Electon is to be decided in Perth then Libs ar only up 2.6% on Primarys , making them ONLY level with Labor on primarys When one looks at all minor Partys for prefs that therefore will be crucial Greens out poll ‘others’ whereas last electon it was other way around so bulk preferncing will more favor Labor this electon

    So am suggesting as per earlier post , IF Newspoll is accurate and th distributon of swinging votes to Libs reflect that Newspoll specificaly in marginal electorates & ‘land’ reasonably accross them , tink Labor just wins with 2 to 3 seats But then very late swings since that Newspoll can go either way & am not sure if any ‘event’ has occured to do so not living in WA

  33. Ryano #173 – Both Liberal and Labor are terrible when it comes to trading laws. I see little difference in their views or in policy during their respective terms in government. The Liberal Party is constantly torn between the ‘big-business’ end which favours deregulation and the small-business owners who like the status quo. Think very hard before you give your vote to McRae – if he wasn’t the Labor candidate I’d advise you to vote Labor, but he really deserves to go. Whatever it is, I hope you make the right choice.

  34. Perhaps another reason for the decline in the ALP primary vote Ron, is that a vast majority of people expect the ALP to win and so some of the ALP supporters might feel comfortable in knowing that Carpenter will be returned, so are happy to send their first preference elsewhere.

  35. Generic Person said.
    “Since the Governor General has been an Australian citizen since 1965, the argument underpinning the republic collapses in full and should be ignored as the arrant nonsense of an arrogant former PM.”

    Yep all that is left is to give the “queen of Australia” the flick. Thats the minimal option preferred by the political elite, from memory Paul Keating included.

  37. Thank goodness I didn’t have such a hard choice in Alfred Cove. Riverton really does have two rather poor candidates from the major parties. Unfortunate that the Libs chose to run Nahan, because McRae doesn’t deserve to win. Labor should have replaced him with a quality candidate who would have had a good chance of winning.

  39. I’m gazing into my crystal ball, laying out my tarot deck, juggling the bones and after all of that scientific hard work i’m tipping a labor win–if they lose it’s rigged and i choked in the fog of incense for nothing

  42. No offense to ppl from WA, but from my perspective you have the worst opposition in the country. It looks to me that carpenter has made an attempt to clean up the labor party and to kick him out would send the wrong message to politicians throughout Australia. Governments will become less open and transparent. In the big picture i think individaul members are largeley irrelivant as they will all vote the way their party does anyway.

  43. That the Liberals have a ‘sniff’ of victory after having 4 different leaders in 2-3 years and have had 4 of its seats abolished while the ALP ‘received’ 6 extra notional seats is remarkable.

    Carps and his corrupt government dont deserve another 4 years, how on earth can anybody reward a government for corruption (especially one that saw 5 Ministers sacked)???? Carps also called an election 6 months early to stifle the Libs chances to look like a solid and credible choice, so once again outside factors, Carps calling the election so early and 1v1v are the only barriers to the election of an honest government in WA.

    I hope Colin wins, but considering the seats required, its going to be tough. Still the people of WA voted Liberal in 2007 in the face of Kevin 07 mania, so why would they change their votes and back a corrupt ALP Government they’d more likely be drawn to Colin and the Libs.

    Cliffhanger in the end though is my final prediction.

  44. yes Aristotle 3180 , that is a good point you raise & perhaps an incentive for that ‘leaked’ Labor internal polling early in week showing a 7% swing away

    Always hav wondered about MSN ‘narrative’ presenting big Labor wins & whether that influences higher ultimate minority party votes or informals or ‘protest’ votes but hard to tell

  45. 187
    SR – no she and i went to hear Walker speak at a town hall meeting with Phillip Nitschke. He’s essentially running on a single issue in South Metro, to introduce dignity in death legislation (euthanasia) laws into the Upper House and to have a conscious vote on the issue and she like 80% of the rest of Australians think people should have that choice/right.

  46. “Still the people of WA voted Liberal in 2007 in the face of Kevin 07 mania” – If you consider a 2% swing acroos the board to the ALP as voting Liberal.

  47. I can’t see how the campaign finish against the background of NSW issues would not have cut a couple of points off Labor since the newspoll was taken.

    Predition : Moderate Liberal Win

  48. Glen, I don’t think you should overlook the fact that Burke has had his fun with BOTH the major parties, and there was a swing towards Labor in WA during the Kevin 07 mania, as you put it.

  49. @Antony Green,

    Is there a reason the Election Coverage is not shown on ABC2 or ABC3?

    It’s just repeats here in SA on ABC2. Paralympics are to be shown on ABC1 and 2 according to the TV Guide. No reason your excellent coverage could not be shown Australia wide.

    Maybe you could lodge that as feedback?

    Thanks again!

  50. Just heard that the first 50 ballot papers distributed for the Leg Council at Hannans Primary School in Kalgoorlie were North Metro Ballot papers and not M&P ballot papers.

    Whoooooooooops!

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