Morgan: 58-42

The latest Roy Morgan federal poll has Labor increasing its two party lead to 58-42 from 57-43 a fortnight ago. Their primary vote is up from 47 per cent to 50 per cent, while the Coalition is down from 37.5 per cent to 37 per cent. The difference comes from the Greens, down from 8.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

138 comments on “Morgan: 58-42”

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  1. The first line in 99 should have read “More than a bit disingenuous,

    How is Russia’s actions in Georgia any different to NATO’s in Kosovo, Ron? How many NATO troops were killed by Serbia when it moved to wipe out the Kosovo Liberation Army on sacred Serbian soil?

    Taiwan is historically part of China. Will you support China if it invaded to bring it back into the fold? Timor Leste geographically part of Indonesia and its people ethnically not much different than West Timorese, so were you against its independence? Is Sudan right to thump the people of its Darfur province?

    But none of this is to the point. The fact is Georgia chose to launch an all out attack on Ossettia. Why then? Given that on its own it had no chance against Russia, what support did Georgia expect to receive from America, the only country with the means to stare down/take on Russia? Who promised what?

    Why of all the countries in this world did McCain take time out to visit Georgia during the primaries? He didn’t go to the Tibetan border, or Taiwan, or Colombia, or Kashmir, or Darfur, or the Philippines, or any of the other places where there are similar disputes, just Georgia.

    Why is McCain on the blower to Saakashvili 3 times a day? Why did he dispatch the missus to Georgia last week? Will she be his Secretary of State if he become Prez? Does he believe she/he already are?

    Who had the most to gain from what would have been a foreign policy triumph if Putin had blinked? McCain standing alongside his old buddy Saakashvili banging on about his supposed ‘legendary’ foreign policy experience? He’s certainly been milking this for all it’s worth!

  2. MayoFeral at 101

    Good comment!

    One of things that the Georgia episode is demonstrating is that while the Russian military machine may not be what it was (although sufficient for the qualified limited intervention at hand) – they have significantly improved their diplomatic and media management skills over the last decade.

  3. Oh dear, the Rudd Government is heading for big trouble. Didn’t I say that there will be seven interest cuts as we run into the election in 2010. Like election, you have to feel that interest rate is rising.

    [RBA points to lower rates – Australia’s interest rates are headed lower and are unlikely to reverse that course because of rapidly cooling consumer spending and borrowing, Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens says…. “I think in the near-term the question will be: Do we hold here or do we go down a bit more? Unless something quite surprising happens, it seems to be unlikely that we’ll be reversing course up again in the near term.”]

  4. Finnigans

    That is exactly why I was so critical of Howard lasty year! Under him we had amoungst the highest interest rates in the OECD, despite Howard’s claim of “low” interest rates. One of the reasons was his excessive spending. Now the Labor has the budget under control (Senate taxation vandalism aside) that trend is turning around, there is no reason our interest rates shouldn’t trend down to those of our peers, some 2-3% lower.

  5. Diogenes

    Yes that bailout really shows that they mean “accountability-free” when they say “free-market”. I noticed this intereting excerpt in the NY Times article on the takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae

    “The plan also commits the government to provide as much as $100 billion to each company to backstop any shortfalls in capital.”

    Great news for US taxpayers. Still, if they had just not invaded Iraq, they would have had the money to save them with change…

  6. Where are my Amigos GG and Ronnie? breaking news:

    the One is in trouble, big trouble: RCP National Average 45.7 46.7 McCain +1.0

    I have not seen this before that McCain is up in RCP Average. We told them, we told them and we told them

  7. Finns

    Your Chicken Little impression isn’t fooling me! As Dario says, it’s the twelve battleground states that matter. All polls are pretty irrelevant until the convention and VP choices settle down.

    And Obi still has the Hillary missile to deploy.

  8. Diog, me chicken little? It’s your Obi that was a chicken little. He should have the courage to pick, at the least, Hillary of his VP and none of this would have happened.

    Bad strategic call. He gave McCain an opening, and McCain took it. never give the sucker an opening and he did.

  9. [He should have the courage to pick, at the least, Hillary of his VP and none of this would have happened]

    Instead the Rupubs would have just attacked him & Hillary being on the same ticket by trotting out all their vitriol during the Primaries, and it would have been 10 times worse. Hillary voters aren’t going to vote for Palin en masse, given that they are diametrically opposed in just about everything they believe in. Obama made the right call IMO.

  10. Finns

    The polls are showing that 85% of Hillary supporters are going to Obama. That’s probably a higher per centage than Obama’s supporters from 3 months ago sticking with Obama.

    If you look at electoral vote (or any other site) it’s very hard to argue that John Bush will win. He’ll never win NH with Palin. If you give him Virginia he’s on 237 EV. The only marginal states for Obi are OH, ND, NV and CO. That only takes him up to 274. Even if by some miracle he wins NH he’s still short at 278.

    McBush needs then to win New Mexico. Obama is ahead by 9% there. Where’s Macca going to get his last ev’s from?

  11. On Skynews, its latest poll on better PM between Rudd vs Costello shows 53-27 for Rudd. Bring Cossie on.

    Meanwhile even Julie “Amazon” Bishop is considered to be a better Opp leader to Nelson: 7 to 6% after Cossie and Turnbull.

  12. Finns, was that a Sky poll or just them reporting one of the major reputable polls? If it was a Sky poll then it is worth about as much as the toilet paper I am about to use in a few minutes…

  13. Sign of troubled times? Obama’s cheersquad is kaput. If you recall Keith Olbermann was particularly nasty on Hillary after her comment about Robert Kennedy was assassinated in June. Good riddance.

    [MSNBC Drops Olbermann, Matthews as News Anchors
    By Howard Kurtz
    Washington Post Staff Writer
    Monday, September 8, 2008; Page C01

    MSNBC is removing Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews as the anchors of live political events, bowing to growing criticism that they are too opinionated to be seen as neutral in the heat of the presidential campaign.]

  14. Sign of happy times? You got to admit when the Frenchies do it, they do it with class. Is Sarkozy getting a bit greedy?

    [AS RACHIDA Dati, France’s glamorous but enigmatic Justice Minister, clattered, in a haze of expensive Dior perfume, down the polished marble steps of her magnificent office on the Place Vendome, it was clear that her much-admired figure was not as slender as it had been.

    The rumour that the unmarried minister — noted for her closeness to President Nicolas Sarkozy — was pregnant began, as rumours tend to do in France, quietly, over lunch tables and in the gilded salons of the establishment. Naturally, not a word of conjecture was allowed to soil the pages of the daily prints, for to do so would be to deprive the French public of its cherished right to be told as little as possible about the private lives of its politicians.]

  15. Finns

    Huff has been pretty nasty about the Big O recently as well. Glen Greenwald, who can run rings around almost any journalist in the US, has also got stuck into O about ignoring Obama’s faults.

  16. Can anyone explain how this comment is anything other than complete and utter bull shit?

    Cossie’s publishers demand a gag on bookstores selling his manifesto.

    The standard agreement, obtained by The Australian Online, states that due to the “highly confidential content, booksellers must return a signed confidentiality agreement”.

    How highly confidential can the content be if it is about to be sold in every Austrlian bookstore to the unsuspecting public FFS.

  17. Diogenes @ 104 –

    Those Repugs sure know how to run an economy.

    Well Republican Herbert Hoover was President when the Great Depression began, Ronnie Reagan was minding the shop during the 1980s Savings and Loans crisis and now we’ve had 8 years of financial fun and games with George starting with Eron and ending with the greatest financial bailout in human history. And lets not forget the wholesale rorting that has been a central feature of the Iraq adventure.

    Seems like there’s little difference between the Libs and Repubs. Both talk the talk but constantly trip over their shoelaces when it comes to doing the walk unless they are very, very lucky as Howard and Costello were.

    In defence of Hoover, he’d not been in the job long, however, he did follow another Republican, Calvin Coolidge. My granddad actually knew Hoover well while he was working in the WA gold fields and had a high opinion of the man.

  18. Dio @ 114,
    “If you look at electoral vote (or any other site) it’s very hard to argue that John Bush will win. He’ll never win NH with Palin. If you give him Virginia he’s on 237 EV. The only marginal states for Obi are OH, ND, NV and CO. That only takes him up to 274. Even if by some miracle he wins NH he’s still short at 278.”
    Er, aren’t there 538 EVs in total, making the magic number 270?

  19. The key point is that McCain was by far the most electable Republican, and they picked him.
    McCain is walking around with a sign saying “I am not George Bush” stapled to his forehead, whilst using Annie Oakley to keep the Right happy. It’ll be interesting to see if they can hold all the inherent contradictions together till the Election day. And if they look like they are going to, it will be interesting to see if Obama loses his legendary cool.

  20. Dyno.

    How embarrassment!! 😳

    I’ll go off to the naughty corner with Finns.

    So if McBush wins NH, VA, OH, ND, NV and CO without dropping any of MT, SD, IN, NC or FL he gets 274.

    He can afford to drop ND, SD, MT or NH, but not two of them. And he’s got to win all the remaining seven listed above. That’s a pretty huge ask if NM, MI and PA stay as blue as they have been.

    Looks like Colorado is going to be seeing a lot of Obama. 🙂

  21. Dio,
    I’m really just slip-streaming whilst you do the hard work, so there’s no need to be embarrassed on my account!
    Yes, I agree, it’s a big ask for McCain. However if the latest polls showing McCain 1-3 points in front were (a) accurate and (b) sustained, there’d presumably be some State(s) or other that we haven’t thought of, where he’d be in contention.
    Obama’s situation would then be a bit reminiscent of the 2007 Fed election when some Liberals were misguidedly claiming Howard could win with as little as 47% TPP.
    Anyway, long way (still) to go, and the polls are still in a State of post-Convention, Palinistic flux I suspect!

  22. ESJ

    I’m not even going to respond to that.

    Have you (or anyone else) read “Murder in Amsterdam” by Buruma. It’s about the murder of Theo van Gogh by a Muslim extremist. It talks about what happens when Enlightenment/ liberal values are challenged by (in this case) Muslim fundamentalism. Liberal values are then caught in a paradox; they should tolerate and try to understand all opinions but this very tolerance can sew the seed of the destruction of a liberal society (either through terrorism, massive immigration of people who don’t share these ideals, or because of the rise of populist reactionary right-wing politicians who strongly oppose Muslim immigration).

    It’s quite fascinating.

  23. Dyno – BHO’s bounce was +6, McCain’s is looking like +16. Clinton got +17 in 1992. Hence my view he’s finished.

    No Diogenes, have you read “What’s left”, by some journo in UK similar theme. Says the left sold out in its failure to challenge Islamic extremism.

  24. Different topic: environment. Here is a link a friend sent me to a fascinating CSIRO report analysing population and environmental data over the last thirty years and comparing it to the Club of Rome’s famous much-derided Limits to Growth report of 1970.

    What is interesting is that, despite past criticism from growth-is-good economists, it seems the Club of Rome wasn’t so far wrong! The actual history has tracked pretty close to the “business as usual” case in their report. What has proved unrealistic were the “technology will fix it” scenarios. So much for all those CC denialists who say that global models are never right.

    Soberingly, the Limits to Growth report projected major social collapse mid way through this century.

  25. MP

    make up your mine , one minute “I’m more than abit More than a bit ingenuous in #99 , then 2 hours later in #101 ” more than a bit disingenuous” Given your claimed measured posting I can only conclude you believe I’m both

    Frankly you hav reduced a complicated Geo politcal Georgian issue that had its more definitive roots at NATO meeting in april which agreeing to admit Georgia & Ukraine subject to doing due process , into a one liner blaming it all on a US presidential candidatte Such a notion would be regarded by any professional non partisan foreign affairs expert as absurb

    In other posts you’ve displayed a strong anti ANZUS & anti US stanse regarding foreign affairs , and its your right to do so despite it representing a miniscule of ‘oz’ views However your latest alegation blaming maverick over Georgia would be more typical of extreme left marxists and is NOT th view of our Rudd government not th EU In fact th German & French pres hav publicly condemned Russia

    What we do know Rrom russia’s invasion is th response of Bush mirrored by Obama was p.ssweak and appeasemement by both What we do know prior to invaion is Russia invaded another UN recognised sovereign Country , both facts you blithley ignore

    What we do know pre invasion is separate 5 parties (Russia, Ossetians , EU , US & Georgia) had varying complicated responsibilitys for what occured & none of whom was McCain or Obama for that matter Clearly most responsibility & condemnation belongs with th invader Russia , with th other 4 partys not blameless either as I’ve previously said but to a varying lesser degree

    This Country Russian you seem to think with anti american sentiment to hav same historic values & libertys as th 26 Nations making up th NATO & therefore worthy in your view to be regarded as a benign peace maker

    Tell that to th 14 former Soviet dominated Countrys who gleefuly escaped Russia’s tyranny & genocides like th Polish , th chezs etc , who see EU & Nato as protecting there libertys from thuggish Russia , go to any of those countrys waving a Russian flag and anti US flag & see how much support you get , especialy th surviving families

    Iraq …what you achieve with your illogical alegation is to allow th 100% defenders of US being 100% perfect in all things FA to sterotype ALL & any criticism of USA FA as coming from looney left marxists & to be disregarded , meaning those that ar legatimatekly condemning USA over its disgraceful Iraq invasion to be lumped with you & anti american sentimenjt , and therefore potentialy ignored You know Obama went to Afhganistan 7 its deteriorated since , & he’s to blame say some blogers , another absurd partissan point scoring US electon spin whch you’ve indulged in

    Fact is AMONGST other Gep politcal factors there ar both gas & oil pipelines going through Georgia & there was to be Georgian NATO & EU membership , all of which ar above th influense of any US candidate , big powers decide these things but by all means post such blogs , you’ll convince no one on that basis

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