Morgan: 58-42

The latest Roy Morgan federal poll has Labor increasing its two party lead to 58-42 from 57-43 a fortnight ago. Their primary vote is up from 47 per cent to 50 per cent, while the Coalition is down from 37.5 per cent to 37 per cent. The difference comes from the Greens, down from 8.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

138 comments on “Morgan: 58-42”

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  1. The Libs have really missed a trick with their response to Alcopops, FuelWatch and Luxury Car Tax (and probably some other things besides).
    A much more astute response politically would have been to support these measures. (“We wouldn’t do this but we are willing to give a new Govt a fair go”). These measures are all so utterly trivial in the big scheme of things and the best way to expose this would have been to let the Govt enact them.
    I guess the problem is, as commentators have noted, Nelson has to pick fights to shore up his weak position within the party.

  2. Dyno @ 51. The Libs. haven’t got a clue about what their position is on….well, anything. They haven’t got their Leadership settled, unless you buy Mesmeralda, the defender of baby Brendon. Is anyone convinced by the Rupert Murdoch parroting of their position on climate change? Which is looking pretty much like a Norwegian Blue.
    Stalwart upholders of the LNP brand, you guys got anything?

  3. Enemy Marsupial

    “Left field stat of the week.
    From a combined polling sample of over 20,000 people since the last week of July – Nelson has lost over 256,500 direct Coalition voters in the Australian electorate.”

    Enemy Marsupia , no left field at all , above is delusionary registering intentions at a point in time as is 59% to 41%

    Gary Morgons role in life every week or so with his inflated Labor polling , is to make Labor people happy & Liberals depressed , Labor people know th figures ar inflated & Liberals ar not sure which makes them unhappy A labor vote of over 2PP 54% to 54.5% wont happen , but landside will do me

    I’m waiting for someone to explain to me seeing his Poll result says 51% say heading right way , and 32% say heading wrong , why do th other 17% hav no idea

  4. I deal in reality and th currrent 58/42 is not , its transitionary , if you wish to believe thats what will happen at an electon fine , 54.5% then probably tops

  5. No 51

    The amusing thing, though, Dyno, is that by opposing the tax hikes, the Opposition has managed to make the Government look stupid with their ridiculous accusations of economic vandalism.

    All credible economists that I’ve read in the daily rags have indicated that there would be no impact on the trajectory of interest rates if the surplus was cut by 7 billion.

    If you’ve listened to the stupidity of Conroy in the Senate (Treasurer’s representative) on Radio National, you’d understand what I mean. They’re trying to run the similar argument that Costello ran with respect to raiding the Future Fund. Except the difference is that an excessive surplus smacks of excessive hoarding and hence the government must and should return it to the people. The Future Fund has entirely different purposes.

    The very success of the Opposition in neutering these issues is clear. Rudd has not gained any traction on them at all.

  6. #57
    “The amusing thing, though, Dyno, is that by opposing the tax hikes, the Opposition has managed to make the Government look stupid with their ridiculous accusations of economic vandalism.”

    at best looking stupid to th ‘right’ intellegentsia , in reality Government hav made Liberals look like they’re protecting rich people’s cars & helping young to drink more …pretty stupid of Libs I’d say As for economics not so , problem is capacity not demand

  7. But Ron, wasn’t this supposed to be the Government of inclusion, not wedges? Oh look…they’re playing class wars in the Parliament. Hypocrites.

  8. I kove how the Liberal aka “Wedge” Party fans expect Labor to always be purer than the driven snow, while they lie, cheat and connive as much as they want (and call it clever).

    The Libs block 6.5 billion dollars worth of Budget bills without even a debate or a committee discussion, and then try to assume the high and mighty position of moral arbiters.

    Worse than that, they think the voters love them for it! Ironically, on the same night this rape of the Budget process started, they were just down the corridor in the Great Hall congratulating themselves on what brilliant statesmen they had been and how wonderful their government had been and what a terrible mistake the voters made etc.etc.

    Sickeningly hypocritical.

  9. Generic Person ” the Government of inclusion”

    think actualy its a government thats governing in interests of Country , constructive xriticism should be at policy & think most people (probably you sectretly) agree taxing luxury cars is equitable & CC beneficial , and re youth drinks figures show its diminshed demand thats what we all want

    So in a social sense they ar reely important , but not as much in a fiscal sense Whereas in a politcal sense Nelson was reely crazy to oppose them , but suspect he’s trying to pro up his numbers there…just delaying his execution for mine

    Govt will def make some mistakes in future , they all do , and those legit ones is when you win both credibility , and votes

  10. No 61

    I do not secretly, or otherwise, support senseless taxation. The LCT should never have been introduced, and the ALP has no cogent argument in maintaining it.

    Nonetheless, you’ve missed the point. The petty class wars in the Parliament are despicable and divisive and completely separated from the claims of the PM during the election.

  11. Generic Person

    hav no problem seriously addresing me by a number , BUT when we gwet to number 99 thats your number

    “The petty class wars in the Parliament are despicable and divisive” Thats reely a ‘dogma’ argument

    IF you re read my first paragrapgh of #61 , there ar social benefits to both taxes regarding equity & CC benefits in introducing a luxury car tax & in reducing kids drinking in lollypop tax So its not ‘class warefare’ but sensible social policy What your arguing actualy for is ststus quo on both taxes but where is justification to leave as is on those spesific taxes vs social benefits of th taxes

  12. GP talks crap again…

    The LCT should never have been introduced, and the ALP has no cogent argument in maintaining it.

    … other than it has reduced total alcohol consumption and that the exemption was an anomalous – and unexplained – tax rort when introduced in 2000.

    The original alcopops in America were taxed lower, as they qualified as a “beer”. They were brewed as a beer without the traditional beer flavour (“un-hopped beer”). Un-hopped beer is tasteless, colorless… just add cordial.

    But even this was too much effort for the lazy Oz liquor lobby. Why not just use grain alcohol, CO2 infused with fruit flavour poured into it… before they poured it into our sons and daughters? Good idea, if only you can get Howard to approve. A few hundred thousand in Lib Party donations did the trick.

    The Opposition and God’s Man Fielding have gone one better than Jesus by turning wine into gold for the distillers.

    To call trying to fix this rort “despicable” and “divisive” is the height of cynicism. For God’s sake, GP, the Opps and Fielding haven’t even debated it, or produced any figures. Not debating it gives Labor no chance to produce figures, on the record, in the proper place, in Hansard, either (not that the Libs would have listened, they have their donations to protect).

  13. ESJ

    The Intrade figure on Palin getting thrown off the ticket is going to go up. From the Anchorage Daily News editorial.

    The Legislature hasn’t given its investigator the power to subpoena, or compel, testimony of witnesses. Subpoenas appeared unnecessary, since it appeared the governor and administration would be cooperating.

    That’s over. It’s time for the subpoenas.

    The Legislature’s investigation is supposed to be wrapped up by Oct. 31. That’s obviously poor timing from the standpoint of the McCain-Palin presidential campaign, coming just a few days before the national election.

    Governor is stonewalling the Troopergate investigation

  14. bushfire
    pollbludger is a broad community,with its fair share of wackos and looneys (points at self) but gp takes the cake for both extreme arrogance and ignorance.

    though I do enjoy hearing the latest fib talking sheets sprout forth from gp,I miss the intellectual cut and thrust as all his arguments are premised on falsities that he believes exists.

    It is a bit like arguing with my youngest why he has to brush his teeth-I now treat gp the same way-maybe I should tell him about how upset the tooth (truth) fairy will be with him. 🙂

  15. thanks Gary

    the realisation of total irrelevance cuts deep into the pysche of the fibs

    and I hope cuts even deeper-they deserve nothing less.

  16. BB

    I heard a commentator agree with you that Fielding is doing himself no favours by rejecting these policies without sending them to Senate committees. It makes him look like the reactionary, populist amateur he is.

    There are many measures of whether the alcopop tax was working, consumption only being one. Road accidents, assaults, presentations to Emergency for intoxication, prescriptions for te morning after pill, arrests for drunk and disorderly etc etc could all be valid outcome measurement the Senate could look at. As it is, we are never going to know whether it was a good policy for reducing harmful drinking or not.

  17. Just a short note to remind everyone that that an ALP State secretary in Victoria was the genius who directed preferences to Fielding and denied David Ristrom (Barrister and really talented Melbourne City Councillor) of the Greens the spot in the Senate.
    This was the same chap who put a DLP person in the Upper house as well, Genius.
    The fallout went right through the last term when Fielding was the duffer who gave the LIBS clear air in the senate. He is a complete lightwieght but its interesting to see the way the ALP are having to deal with him. While they are having a go at the Libs, just remember, Follow the Preferences back to that State Secretary ask why?

  18. If Obama loses the election in November. His failure to pick Hillary of his VP will go down as the biggest blunder ever in the history of POTUS election.

    That failure gave McCain an opening and he took it with Sarah Palin.

    As the grapevine had it, it was Michelle Obama that cannot stand Hillary and vetoed it. If so, that is showing the weak side of Obama’s character, namely he cannot handle strong woman.

  19. Hi all, have been off to the paddocks to check the grazing, the weeds, the feral animals and so forth. Unexpected lowlight was that Sambar deer are turning up all over the place and are stuffing the shrub layer good and proper in the bush.

    Good spring growth south of the divide. Just great walking across pastures that were green and above the ankles. The broad acre mob are going to get some grain out this year, and more if we get a couple of good follow up rains, but the irrigators are up the proverbial.

    But I digress.

    On the road, I had the edification of listening to Thursday’s question time.

    The dot dixers were a hoot. The Opposition questioners lined up and were shot down in flames. They were choking on their Ferraris. Their bewilderment and resentment at having the QT rules completely stacked against them was palpable. They were whinging about all those answers that went for more than 4 minutes. Albanese, who perhaps lacks charisma but who does now about parliamentary tactics, reminded them of the several hundred times answers in the previous parliament{?} had gone over 4 minutes.

    The Speaker’s ruling I enjoyed most was in response to a point of order on relevance. ‘The answer is consistent with precedents set in the House.’ Too bloody right it was. I was thinking how Costello might enjoy being dragged from pillar to post during QT.

    The only flies in the ointment is that it turns out that there is something like another $39billion in highly leveraged hedge fund something or others that are likely to go down the tubes when all the frightened folk seek to get their funds out at the end of September; plus the Bank of China has about $1trillion riding in US bonds and things like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. If all that crap comes out in the next couple of years, Saint Kevin might yet become a martyr to the greed years.

  20. My, my, my, how things have changed.

    At one time, Hillary was evil, noxious, malignant, despicable, shameless, contemptible, abhorrent, abominable, detestable, execrable, hateful, loathsome, odious, disgusting, repugnant, repulsive; disgraceful, dishonorable, vile and a big fat liar. In particular to certain Obama supporters on certain blog site.

    But now, she is smelling like roses, can do no wrong and can do only right for Mr. Obama.

    [The question is, will Mrs. Clinton fight Ms. Palin to help her former rival, Mr. Obama? Clinton advisers say that Mrs. Clinton wants to do everything she can to elect Mr. Obama, so that she cannot be blamed if he loses — yet she also does not want to be too closely associated with him if he does lose, nor to tarnish her own image by taking on a rookie national politician like Ms. Palin and possibly coming up short…………. Mrs. Clinton and Ms. Palin have little in common beyond their breakout performances at the conventions and the soap opera aspects of their family lives. Mrs. Clinton always faces high expectations; Ms. Palin faced low expectations this week, and benefited from them. Mrs. Clinton can seem harsh when she goes on the attack; Ms. Palin has shown a knack for attacking without seeming nasty. Mrs. Clinton has a lot of experience; Ms. Palin, not so much. Mrs. Clinton is pantsuits; Ms. Palin is skirts…….. Friends of Mrs. Clinton, meanwhile, say she is the Obama campaign’s greatest weapon in pointing out Democrats’ differences with Ms. Palin and Mr. McCain.]

  21. Whenever there’s a change in government, the new lot always say “The budget looks a lot worse than we were lead to believe. There will have to be cutbacks for us to keep our election promises. This is the first time I can recall a new leader saying it about their own party. The credibilty gap has to be a mile wide for the NSW Labor party.

    NEW South Wales Premier Nathan Rees says the economic outlook for the state is more bleak than he expected, and difficult decisions will have to be made.

    Budget worse than expected – Rees,22606,24303565-5005962,00.html

  22. Why should Clinton be so involved in the Obama campaign? She owes him absolutely nothing. He chose not to have her as VP, which was the right call IMO as the two of them could never have presented a united face after their bitter primary battle. So where’s the onus on her to do any heavy lifting beyond the usual party stuff?

  23. I thought Clinton and Obama among others were involved in a run-off for their supporters to choose who they wanted for POTUS candidate. They are I thought running to put a democrat in power and thus why they make sure they have the support of their own voters base.

    It is strange to think that if a Democrat had some special asset helpful to the cause that they wouldn’t use it.

    To think that Clinton or any other Democrat shouldn’t bother doing anything because they lost the democratic nomination process proves that in their minds it was all about personalities and not party. Clinton is a member of the democrats, not the democrats part of the Clinton party.

    If Obama is not the best choice for their wining that is too bad, that is what they are left with and so they all have to do their best – and not take their bat and ball and go home.

    I don’t care really except that the democrats win, and you would think any democrat senator would ten times as more keen than me.

    Now that we have the real danger of Palin being a default president it is even more critical the democrats win.

  24. “that is showing the weak side of Obama’s character, namely he cannot handle strong women.”

    Finns, he is no Tony Abbott.

    “Costa should be in the Liberal Party.”

    You can have him.

  25. “Oh dear, now even The Australian thinks the Governor-General is our Head of State”

    Articles does note at the end though that
    “He had one message for the Queen’s new representative. “Good on you, mate,” he said.”

    So they got it right in the end, the GG represents the Queen in Australia as your passport says.

  26. I know there is a lot of sparing going on here, but some of these arguments are just ridiculous.
    On the luxury car tax, the whole idea that Rudd is high taxing is laughable, even for someone as ignorant of economics as a calition staffer. Australian taxes are low by OECD standards and barely high enough to provide the services we need. Even the US taxes more in % terms. Before the last budget economists were begging for economic restraint (i.e. spend less; tax more) to get inflation under control. The idiotic Howard small-minded-government idea that all tax cuts are good and all public investment bad lives on in the Liberal Party. I shudder to think how high interest rates might have gone if Howard had been relected.

    On the US election, yes McCain gave a tired old speech. Symbolic? As for past voting records, who cares? Australia electing Menzies for a decade didn’t save Howard. Likewise past Republican presidential victories won’t get McCain elected. His slogan should be “Steady as she sinks: Vote McCain/Palin”.

    As for Palins speech yes it did try to glorify stupidity. The Forest Gump of politics? Her theme seemed to be “Don’t tell me I’m ignorant, I’m still gona fight yous!” What kind of a leader is that? How will she solve the world’s conflicts? Being a mother of five is hard work, but it doesn’t entitle you to be president. It might just mean you don’t know how to use contraceptives.

  27. #88 – [As for Palins speech yes it did try to glorify stupidity] – do not underestimate the stupidity of the American voters. They are really really stupid, otherwise why did they elect Dubya twice.

    This is why the Repugs have been quite smart so far with Palin. It kills two birds with one stone – tied up the conservative votes and help McCain to steal the “CHANGE” mantle from Obama by putting up a woman and a Washington outsider. She simply reinforces McCain’s maverick image.

    Whereas Obama started with a big bang of “Change”, slowly but surely shedding his change message by flip-floppin on a number of change issues, his pastor’s “he is just another politician”, not appointing Hillary as his VP and appointing a long term old Washington insider as his VP.

    And then there is always the elephant. That is why Sarah Palin’s speech was basically: “I am white, white, white, you are black, black, black and I smack, smack, smack”.

  28. Socrates @ 88

    On the tax take, the Rudd 2007-08 budget has a lower tax take as a percentage of GDP than about the previous five budgets; not sure beyond that.

    The following scenario is now a possibility:

    1. McCain/Palin are successful.
    2. McCain becomes POTUS and has a stroke/heart attack or develops dementia/alzheimers.
    3. Palin becomes POTUS.
    4. Palin, as commander in chief, starts a war against somebody, anybody, probably Iran,… and on moose, caribou, bears, ducks, elk… whatever.
    5. Palin announces that Federal funding to the states will be conditional on their health systems refusing to perform abortions. Family planning clinics will only be funded if they preach abstinence. Their education systems will only be funded if they refuse to teach evolution. Science teaching will only be funded if they start with the notion that CC is a load of hooey. The FBI and CIA will be enlisted to get anyone who has done wrong to the Palin clan.

    Seriously, the question about all four possibilities for Pres is how good they are at having a big picture and how good they are at delegating. Not sure how Palin rates against these criteria.

    Clinton will probably have another go in four year’s time so it is in her interest to boost the Democrats. Clinton now has a big campaign debt which only Obama can ‘fix’. He needs her to shepherd her devotees and to get them out on polling day. She needs him for the moolah and to look reasonable in four year’s time.

  29. Boerwar @ 90 –

    4. Palin, as commander in chief, starts a war against somebody, anybody,

    McCain is likely to beat her to the first punch-up assuming he doesn’t drop of the perch at the Inauguration. Indeed, with evidence he had more than a little to do with the Georgia fiasco, he arguably already has.

  30. Looks like Costello might have Tipped a bucket on Howard. Shaun Carney of The Age has apparently had a pre-release read of Costello’s memoirs and predicts:

    It’s possible that all the debates about the Howard-Costello leadership tensions will fill the media all over again

    The John-worshipping Libbos will take a most dim view if he has badmouthed their hero too darkly. Could be his parting shot?

  31. Dyno 94 –

    McCain claims he and Mikheil Saakashvili have been buddies for 25 years.

    McCain’s nominated Saakashvili for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005. LOL!

    McCain, was making all sorts of extravagant promises to Georgia before the balloon went up.

    McCain’s top foreign policy adviser (and member of the neocon Project for the New American Century), Randy Scheunemann, was (is?) a lobbyist for the Georgian government.

    McCain has claimed that since the crisis began has been talking to Saakashvili up to 3 times a day.

    Cindy McCain has just returned from Georgia where she reportedly assured the government that as Prez McCain would back them to the hilt.

    Does all the above prove McCain had anything to do with Georgia’s actions? No. But he’s hardly an uninterested bystander and where there’s smoke…

  32. Dyno

    MF, Not trying to be argumentative but is there any evidence that he had something to do with Georgia?

    th evidence Dyno in #96 indicates Maverick phoned Pres Saakashvili of Georgia
    to get him to phone Putin asking Putin to invade Georgia , so its Maverick’s fault first fro georgia being invaded , then its Georgian Prsidents fault and Putin was innocent

  33. More than a bit ingenious, Ron.

    Yes, the Ossettians have been stirring the pot all year, almost certainly on orders from Putin. However, the Georgians did more than “phone Putin asking Putin to invade Georgia.” they launched an all out invasion of South Ossettia, quite possibly killing Russian ‘peacekeepers’ in the process.

    Why would a small country with an army of 33,000 troops take on what is still a military superpower armed with enough nukes to fry the entire planet?

    Either Saakashvili is a raving nutter, or he expected more backup than he eventually got.

    If the first why is McCain clinging to him like he’s his long lost brother? And what does it say about your golden haired boy’s judgement?

    If it’s the second then who promised what to whom? Bush denies it was him and I tend to believe him. There was nothing in this for him. Georgia wasn’t a cause he was closely associated and there are more than enough avowed enemies he could have kicked for political effect.

    The EU has announced an enquiry into what happened. I’m expecting the report to make fascinating reading. Fortunately for your candidate the enquiry won’t conclude until long after the election.

  34. MF

    you’ve skewered th facts so much with anti American sentiments , that you’ve got th sovereign country invaded ie Georgia asking th invader Russia to invade Did you get this off a looney pro Obama site like your equaly looney Lady’s pregnancy furthy

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