Morgan: 58-42

The latest Roy Morgan federal poll has Labor increasing its two party lead to 58-42 from 57-43 a fortnight ago. Their primary vote is up from 47 per cent to 50 per cent, while the Coalition is down from 37.5 per cent to 37 per cent. The difference comes from the Greens, down from 8.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

138 comments on “Morgan: 58-42”

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  2. Does Roy really think that an increase in support has anything to do with the Olympics?

    Also, Why does he still bother with the ‘heading in the right direction’ thing?

  4. Dave 55

    Roy is a bit dim.
    I like to think of him as a garbage man –

    Just because he knows how to empty a can in to the back of truck doesn’t mean he understands what was in the can or why.

    It doesn’t necessarily mean he isn’t pretty good at emptying the can though.
    The interpretive crap is non-core business that’s damaging his brand from my perspective. It’s about as deep as pre-school kids bartering for better toys in the sand pit.

  6. Dario

    LOL.

    I reckon he does it to bait us. Like that fake headline he posted a couple of months ago to humour those of us who occasionally plug in the anticipated web address for the polling.

    ominod

    nice analogy. Garbage in – garbage out.

  10. With Ross Garnaut releasing part two of his trilogy of reports today no doubt the nuke lobby will be talking it up as the solution to all our problems.

    Good to see Garnaut has ruled it out, especially in light of this: Nuclear shortcuts exposed

    If this can happen with a new American facility designed to process the most dangerous nuclear product, you have to wonder what goes on in countries with little to no standards.

  12. [With Ross Garnaut releasing part two of his trilogy of reports today no doubt the nuke lobby will be talking it up as the solution to all our problems.

    Good to see Garnaut has ruled it out, especially in light of this: Nuclear shortcuts exposed]

    So have they solved the problem of radiation from coal power stations being sent into the atmosphere, which eventually ends up on the ground?

    http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=coal-ash-is-more-radioactive-than-nuclear-waste

  13. Ha! – classic!
    No dimmer than us I suppose?

    I guess if he (Gazza, not Big Red) writes the crap it saves an MSM journo from having to think about it – it might be the only way he gets published, if that even happens these days?

  14. Morgan shows a drop in the Green vote, this seems to tie in with other pollsters recently.

    Is this an anomaly? Or is it a perception of the new Senate numbers?

  15. ShowsOn @ 12 –

    Given a choice between standing unprotected next to a pile of the waste the South Carolina plant will be handling and a similar sized pile of fly ash, I know which I’d choose.

    Actually, the fine particulates in the ash are much more dangerous, even if they contain no radioactive elements. Particulates are the cause of about 20% of lung cancers and may also increase the risk of cardiovascular disease. Still, you’d the amount of these you’re likely to breath in from fly-ash are small compared to what you;d breath in from vehicle exhausts, especially diesels. even if you lived near a coal powered power station. Lungs of city slickers are usually flecked by visible spots.

    BTW-that article also makes the point that many rock phosphates contains appreciable quantities of uranium. What it doesn’t say is that plants are very good at concentrating this if the rock is used in fertilizer.

  16. Bushfire Bill @ 9. I wonder what will happen to the polls if anyone registers that Mesmerelda has to step in to protect wee Brendon from that nasty Belinda Neal. Mind you, she does come across as a nasty and fairly useless piece.

  20. Diogenes,

    As you know, when people are under personal, financial and medical pressure they tend to look for “safe and sure”.

    That is the message that McCain is selling.

    Just because you don’t like it, does not mean it won’t resonate. The Republicans are fairly adept at winning Presidential elections.

  21. “Mesmerelda has to step in to protect wee Brendon from that nasty Belinda Neal”

    Brendon is recommending Bishop for an Australia Day award for her outstanding courage and selflessness in being prepared to throw herself on a live Belinda.

  22. Diogenes
    Greeensborough Growler

    Two to come 😛

    Its great when four or five people can have a private conversation in public. New Topic posts William.

    Oh Goody say the Fab Fourish, lets move there to continue our conversation. What was the topic one says? Who cares say the rest of them.

    Come on guys give us a break, you are being unreasonable. 🙁

  24. ruawake,

    William has posted on this. It’s his site and he allows it.

    I suspect there may be a solution after the WA election.

    Cheers.

  25. [Just because you don’t like it, does not mean it won’t resonate. The Republicans are fairly adept at winning Presidential elections.]

    The problem they have is that they have had to fire up their base (because McCain is not seen as a staunch enough conservative by them) and did so by selecting Palin, but that has had the effect of firing up the Democrat base even more, and probably turning off the Independent voters. Not looking good for them.

  27. No 23

    Obama should come out with some real policy. He has zero executive experience and thus needs to demonstrate some policy affinity if he is going to compete with the impressive McCain/Palin ticket.

  28. GG

    will there ever be “non Bush orientated” benchmarks set by th guy and his supporters , or is ascension itself simply it , 5 seconds of sunshine Always todate its been just anti anyone & everybody else

  29. Slip of the tongue.

    TOM BROKAW: But the fact is, governor, that you have had eight years of a bush administration and a lot of Republicans in Congress for the last eight years, so why wouldn’t the american people say, look they had their shot we’re going to change?

    TOM RIDGE: Because John Bush – because John McCain is very much his own man…

  31. Greensborough Growler:

    The Republicans are fairly adept at winning Presidential elections.

    Crap.

    The common presumption that Republicans are winners and Democrats are losers is wrong.

    Since the war years, it’s about even-stevens: 9-8, Republicans-Democrats. Go back another few years and it’s 11-9 to the Democrats.

    That’s Presidents: Bush jnr. (2), Clinton (2), Bush snr. (1), Reagan (2), Carter (1), Nixon(2), Johnson (1), Kennedy (1), Eisenhower (2), Truman (1), Roosevelt (4… two in the war years)

    The way Republican whine and whinge about being undersogs and persecuted, you’d think it was 20-0 for the Democrats.

    GG, get your facts straight, please.

  32. Left field stat of the week.

    From a combined polling sample of over 20,000 people since the last week of July – Nelson has lost over 256,500 direct Coalition voters in the Australian electorate.

    That’s a lot of primary vote bleeding when your primary vote hasn’t effectively cracked 40% all year.

  35. Primary voters might not be so easy to bring back. Having changed people need reason to change again, simply putting in someone else wont be enough. The Libs will have to put on some solid performance to win them back.

    Being negative all the time on everything wont do it.

  36. Doesn’t matter eh GP?

    Well, then – if it doesn’t matter – how about the Libs keep Nelson there until 12 months out from the next election?

    Your primary will be hanging in the low to mid 30’s, the Nats will be wiped out by rural independents and Labor will cement themselves in government for another 2 terms before the Coalition even pretends to become competitive.

    I’m sure the Labor Party reckons it sounds like a plan.

  37. No 35

    I agree, but there is simply no reason to defend the reckless taxation binge that the Government intends the Senate to rubber stamp.

    1. Alcopop tax will not do anything. Evidence has already emerged both statistically and anecdotally that youths are going to hard liquor instead.

    2. Luxury Car Tax is an unfair and inefficient tax. Why aren’t other “luxury” goods taxed? Luxury mansions, luxury yachts, luxury jewellery – indeed anything except the bare essentials to survive could be construed as a luxury. Completely stupid tax – Costello should never have introduced it, and Swan should have abolished it, not increase it. Rudd talks about being inclusive – yet his government has been on an anti-wealthy people tirade in parliament for days. What’s worse, it’s not Mercs, BMWs and Porsches that the tax will mostly affect. It’s the cars between 57,000 and 70,000 that are most effected (according to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries) – hardly the domain of millionaires. Once again, Rudd is the real economic vandal, punishing hard work, punishing working families, punishing Australian made vehicles.

    Hypocrisy galore. Shame on Rudd.

  38. BB,

    And Im sure if you go back further….

    My point of reference is 1968 since it is after Johnson introduced civil rights legislation and has resulted in the Republics taking the south ever since.

    I think you’ll find it 7/3 since then.

  40. No 36

    Possum, I fully acknowledge the polling issues that Nelson is facing. I expect the leadership to change by the end of the year, with either Turnbull or Costello at the helm.

  41. GG, [I suspect there may be a solution after the WA election] – The Red Army is at the gate, the Czarina promised the revolution in 3h 38 min. But what have you done with the revolution? A change you can believe in indeed.

  42. Well, why don’t we go back four terms? It’s still 2-all, with two of them stolen (Gore/Kerry) or at best won by the slimmest of margins.

    In October last year (to… shudder… talk about Australian politics for a change), the point could have benn (and was regularly) made that the Liberals are the natural party of federal government in this country.

    Look how the tables have turned. While they congratulate themselves with celebratory dinners (like drinking champange on the Titanic) Poss points out the Libs are sinking fast (to continue the metaphor).

    He also points out the Republicans are going down the gurgler with them.

    I was never in doubt Labor would win last year… was predicting it from the polls from mid-2006 when the commentators were saying Labor was tanking in the polls. Even wrote a couple of letters to the ABC pointing it out… until I learnt for good that there’s no point complaining to the ABC.

    And I have not the slightest doubt that Obama will win this year. Not only will win, but should win, not by virtue of policy, but because the Republicans have blown it big time.

    Except in Japan and Burma, the success of a party a few elections back is not much indicator of success at the next election.

    Which is why I picked 75 years. You picked 40. Whatever, the Repubs are goin’
    down and so are the Libs. They can pat themselves on the back as much as they like, but it won’t change the result.

  43. BB,
    Agree with you that there’s not much point in comparing competing, selective views of history.
    The Democrats ought to be able to beat the party of Bush this year, and they probably will. I have to say though, the Republicans have had a better Convention than I’d have thought possible a week ago. Notwithstanding some people’s views to the contrary, Gustav was a godsend for them, as it meant they could keep Bush locked in a cupboard without annoying the right wing of the party.
    I suspect this will only affect the margin of Obama’s victory, if it affects anything at all.

  44. Sarah Palin: The Face of Ugly Americanism

    What I saw on that stage was the personification of small-minded smugness, an utter lack of humility, a kind of self-righteous entitlement based on little more than puffed-up narrowness. She struck me not as plucky but, rather, as stunningly immodest–to the point of arrogance. Some people are arrogant and maybe deserve to be. They know it, and flaunt it, while everyone else thinks they are jerks. But there’s another kind of arrogance, perhaps harder to spot at first, an arrogance that apparently doesn’t even recognize itself as such, a sanctified, self-satisfied presumptuousness that flows from sheer naïveté about oneself and the world and manifests itself in giddy ambition.

    Yes, she can bring a bunch of white people to their feet chanting USA, USA, USA. Good for her. But true leadership in these difficult times will require actual knowledge, not just personality. This world of ours, the past hundred years, has too frequently witnessed the dangers–nay, the evils–of compensatory nativism. Citizens in our own country should have learned one of the major lessons of these last eight years, namely that conviction should not serve as a trump card over competence.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-seery/sarah-palin-the-face-of-u_b_123989.html

  45. 27 – no experience? Since when did that stop someone taking the top job?

    The Liberals pinned the ‘no experience’ tag on Kevin Rudd for the best part of last year. Where are we now? Record polling since it first began 35 years ago.

    … 🙂

  46. [Alcopop tax will not do anything. Evidence has already emerged both statistically and anecdotally that youths are going to hard liquor instead.]

    You mean evidence from the Liquor Industry? Hahahaha

    The only credible evidence from the tax office shows that alcohol consumption is down 5%, and that while some of the reduction in alcopop sales has gone to spirits, it is less in terms of alcohol volume. As for kids going to ‘hard liquor’, what do you think they drank before alcopops existed?

  47. gusface @ 26 –

    maybe we should deploy mesmerelda to the US Presidential bodyguard.

    Nah, way to tame for someone who stared down Big Bad Belinda!

    Parachute her into the Pakistani tribal areas instead. Within a hour she’ll have bin Laden begging Bush for asylum in Gitmo, and the Taliban whipped by lunchtime. Perhaps she could do a detour through Georgia on the way home. Bloody Putin won’t know what hit him! 😉

  49. mayo
    goddamn now you’ve gone and blown her cover as GI Mesmerelda 🙂

    actually I heard she and brenda were trying out for “snakes on a plane pt2-the snakes revenge”

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