Essential Research: 59-41

The latest weekly Essential Research survey (providing a rolling average of results over the previous fortnight) shows Labor’s lead up to 59-41 after a long stretch on 58-42. Also included are leadership approval ratings which provide an interesting point of comparison with Newspoll: Kevin Rudd has 56 per cent approval and 33 per cent disapproval (compared with 59 per cent and 25 per cent in last week’s 56-44 Newspoll), while Brendan Nelson’s ratings are 24 per cent and 51 per cent (compared with 36 per cent and 39 per cent). Breakdowns are provided telling us how much of this approval and disapproval is “strong”, and there are also results on whether Nelson’s party has given him “the support he deserves”, and on the seasonal workers issue.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

554 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  2. Dyno & Dario (oh will now add Vera , vera see 3rd paragraph)

    “Why her?”

    As a neutral observer I believe there were politcal reasons firstly Rudi Huck & Romney were all negatives for th fundi ‘right’ base & probaly negative for Independents So he had to pick an “unknown” McCain is behind and had to take a big politcal risk picking an ‘unknown’ , but selecting an ‘unknown’ with more experience like Mr P would not hav narrowed his % gap

    So he had to sacrifice having to hav an ‘unknown’ with Washington/ more State experience , wear inexperience criticism & that may somewhat diminish his ‘experience’ advantage over Obama, wear th inevitable skeleton sleeze about her that comes on Internet/Media , and gamble his selection would get through TV interviews & Debates for th benefits she brings thereby narrowing th gap/ winning , or losing bigger

    So he’s picked a Lady who despite ‘left’ criticisms does bring some politcal benefits not to ‘left’ voters so convincing them or ‘left’ bloggers was irrelevant , but who brings benefits/votes to ‘right’ voters to get them out to vote & potentialy win some Independent votes …starting with , she brings that she is Pro Life (hell she proved that with having her 5th child knowing in advance th child had down syndrome , very powerful message ) , she brings she is a go getting successful female , she brings ‘success’ female career with family and specifiacly comparable to th ‘successful’ female Hillary potentialy winning some male 7 especialy female Hillary supporters and Independent male particulalry female voters who will like that , she brings sh’e mother 5 kids Husband World champion success man & defeats both male Dems & Repugs for Governor both of whom had been th governor previously , she bering from that subtext she has appeal of having reel ‘ticker’ plus family & combining th 2 , she brings no Iraq baggage at all & in fact is sending a son there in Septemmber americans love patriotism , she also brings she wants out of Iraq and out without worrying about oil & that will appeal , she brings she speaks very straight & well at her political level about bread & butter issues unlike McCain Obama or Biden making a big contrast against all 3 , could list more but th Lady brings no experience but alot to th political table

    So compare th last 2 paragraphs and one see plus’s and min’s , and you guys were never going to vote for her , but yous ar not voter groups being chased , politicans take gambles

  5. Everybody seems to be talking of Senator Obama’s inexperience in US federal politics re his term length as a senator, I was just looking at the wikipedia entry for Abe Lincoln http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Lincoln and am I wrong in thinking he had only 2 years as a federal congressman before being elected arguably the best president ever? neglecting all the un-elected stuff he and no doubt obama did before, during, and after being elected ???? so what’s all the fuss about obama then?

  6. I just saw on the morning news that the coalition failed to kill off the luxury car tax bill last night because Liberal Senator Boyce failed to show for the crucial vote ROTFL.
    Fielding voted against it, citing concerns over farmers and people with large families. IMO that is a croc – there are lots of people movers not affected by teh luxury tax. Many 4wds are under the threshold too. Why should farmers automatically get a subsidy? On grounds of their industry being unviable? I think its time that Labor started attacking the automatic entitlement/subsidy mentality many attach to farmers. They need help on water, but there are many distortions in our system to “help” them which are simply rorts. And they do get abused.

  8. Ron, GG, vera,
    Maybe Palin is Ronald Reagan in a dress. I don’t think so but I am frequently wrong, so we’ll see.
    Today’s speech will give us a lot more clues.

  9. Palin is a better educated Pauline Hansen. What does a VP do all day? Please explain?
    She can say things other politicians cannot or too afraid of saying. But people like to hear those things and react to them.

  10. Dario @ 341 –
    There were plenty of other candidates with religious right appeal that he could have chosen. Why her?

    There is the possibility that faced with a party order to pick a someone that the fundies approved instead of his preferred choice, Lieberman, McCain chose the very worst candidate in the hope she’d crash and burn thus enabling him to ‘hastily’ rope in Lieberman as the last minute replacement.

    Whichever way you look at it it says much about McCain’s character, or lack there of, IMO.

  11. I hope McCain does drop Palin and picks up Lieberman. If he does win we for god sake should have somebody not a red neck child to step into the position. Palin is now become a national security risk.

  12. The question for the second reading of the Tax Laws (Luxury Car Tax) Bill 2008 and 3 related bills was put again

    Commenced 9:31 AM
    Negatived at second reading
    Senate divided: Ayes 33; Noes 34

  18. James J, the interesting one that will hurt the Liberals and Fielding is if the “Tax Laws Amendment (Medicare Levy Surcharge Thresholds) Bill 2008? is voted down.

    It was interesting that when it was first introduced the Liberals claimed probably no one would ever have to pay the tax because very few would be affected by the threshold. It remained unchanged for the remainder of the Liberal rule. Now thousands of people are ripped off each year due to the unchanged threshold.

    Nobody likes to pay their tax all year and then get slugged with a bill for extra tax just on a Liberal Party whim as I am sure the Liberals and Fielding are about to discover.

  19. There is no doubt that Swannie gets better as the days go by.
    Tuesday night on Red Kerry Allbull made a statement about being governed by leaders who were not responsible but forgot to mention that he was referring to ALP.

    So yesterday in Question time Allbull duly asked him a question regarding taxes and Swannie delivered the following as part of his answer. In Hansard.

    Pure Gold.

    Last night, the member for Wentworth was on The 7.30 Report,
    and this is what he said:

    I am not exaggerating. Look, all I’m saying is this: had
    we been governed by leaders who were responsible, and who
    had the economic interests of this country at heart, we would
    have had lower interest rates …

    Isn’t that an awful thing to say about Mr Howard and
    the member for Higgins—particularly on the night that
    Mr Howard is in the House! That is a terrible thing to
    say about them because it is so true.

  20. The “Tax Laws Amendment (Medicare Levy Surcharge Thresholds) Bill 2008″ is being debated in the senate now. A bit of history in the making.

  21. I notice that “Levi Jonhston” has been upgraded to be Bristol Palin’s fiancee. How quick and how soon. Was he given an offer he couldn’t refuse?

  22. I have this theory that there is a right wing conspiracy to Americanise us as much as they can. They have influenced what we eat, they spread this bizarre christian rubbish and they support a distructive form of Capitalism and elitism.
    When Media in Australia start spending a huge amount of time on the USA presidential election (What difference does it make to us and what influence can we have on the teenage pregnancy,) it does not help my paranoia. Secondly it highlights that the Media are often just short of copy. They often mimic teenagers who if they have nothng to say say something anyway.
    Off on tangent, what is the age of consent in Alaska, and if its 18 is McCain associating with a sex offender, or doesn’t it count if you marry your victim?

  23. [Off on tangent, what is the age of consent in Alaska, and if its 18 is McCain associating with a sex offender, or doesn’t it count if you marry your victim?]

    No, it’s 16 in Alaska

  26. Dario

    I keep saying, Palin is the gift that keeps on giving.

    And its showing up in the polls and betting markets.

    In the bellwether state of Ohio, the race was a statistical dead heat – more bad news for McCain, as no Republican has ever lost there and gone on to win the White House.

    A new CNN-Time poll showed Obama leading McCain 55 per cent to 40 per cent in Iowa and 53 per cent to 41 per cent in Minnesota.

    In Ohio, the race was a statistical dead heat, with Obama, who appears to have grabbed a significant polling bounce from his convention last week in Denver, up by just 47 per cent to 45 per cent.

  27. Diogenes,

    Is the poll measuring the Obama bounce from the DNC convention, or is it recent enough to attribute to the bizarre VP choice?

  30. Dio, Dario,
    I agree with you that she is a poor choice.
    However the all-out attack on Obama that she apparently launched at the Convention today is not a bad tactical manoeuvre: it gives the Dems a real dilemma about how to respond.

  31. Dyno, I don’t think it was that surprising… it was about the only option for the Republicans. From here on in she does as she is told, and gives the speeches the RNC give her. As for the how the Democrats respond, I think they have been given a gift and come the debates it will just get worse for the Republicans no matter what the Democrats do.

  32. “The National Enquirer’s coverage of a vicious war within Sarah Palin’s extended family includes several newsworthy revelations, including the resulting incredible charge of an affair plus details of family strife when the Governor’s daughter revealed her pregnancy. Following our John Edwards’ exclusives, our political reporting has obviously proven to be more detail-oriented than the McCain campaign’s vetting process. Despite the McCain camp’s attempts to control press coverage they find unfavorable, The Enquirer will continue to pursue news on both sides of the political spectrum.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/03/mccain-camp-battles-natio_n_123696.html

    Something funny – the heavy bovver boys out and about?

    This link is dead:
    http://www.nationalenquirer.com/sarah_palin_at_war_with_her_daughter_over_pregnancy_wedding/celebrity/65370

    AND
    ‘Page under construction’
    http://www.nationalenquirer.com/

  34. A week ago you’d have thought McCain would have spent the week having to deal with people talking about Bush and Obama.
    Instead it’s been the Gustav and Sarah show. Not ideal, but overall, probably a bit of a lucky break for McCain the way this week has panned out, compared to what it could have been.
    Palin has a few tests to get though yet, though.

  35. Minnesota and none of the rust-belt Kerry states seem to be in play (and with the pro-life Palin the very independent New Hampshire can be kissed goodbye). If the Dems continue to have solid leads in Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado as they have in almost all the polls it doesn’t even matter what happens in all the toss-up contests (Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Nevada, Montana, North Carolina) which McCain has to do a 100% sweep to even have a sniff. I think this explains the crazy-brave pick of Palin, its sort of like Latham in 2004 where there was the necessity to take risks when you are trailing in tracking polling to hope it somehow changes the game (although in 2004 it made Latham appear more instable and cost him a lot of votes)

    Lieberman would have been a much better choice, would have increased the focus on foreign-relations and McCain’s ability to transcend the partisan divide, but obviously the Repubs selected purity over pragmatism.

  37. Very true I agree, I think the Reps are caught between the devil and the deep-blue sea in their need to maintain the coalitions that were behind their previous victories – its the ironic inversion of all the culture wars B/S that they believe the B/S so fervently that even when they hold their noses and pick a strong candidate with cross-over appeal like McCain they have to find a way to damage this appeal by bringing back the “red-meat stuff” that only appeals to the faithful

  39. This is exactly what Obama needs to do in response to Palin’s speech.

    The Obama campaign immediately branded the address as the work of “George Bush’s speech writer”.

    “The speech … was well delivered, but it was written by George Bush’s speechwriter and sounds exactly like the same divisive, partisan attacks we’ve heard from George Bush for the last eight years,” said Obama spokesman Bill Burton.

  40. Say what you will, stick ya heads in the sand in denial, troll the net and oilbama blogs for shit to throw and make a noise to distract from it but Miss Sarah’s speech was brilliant.
    A few home truths on Obama hit where it hurt and were delivered with a smile, I laughed when she made the comment about the Greek styrofoam pillars being taken back to the movie lot, how true, she also told MSM to get stuffed and that she wasn’t out looking for their approval. Msm have crucified her for days and she comes out fighting and sits them back on their arse Game on!
    someone said “Msm have got a dog in their trunk and it’s called Obama” LOL

    If all the critism they can come up with is she had the help of a speechwriter they need help themselves. Notice this was the first comment by MSM as well and yet there has been no mention of everyone else using speechwriters Oilness included.

  42. [Say what you will, stick ya heads in the sand in denial, troll the net and oilbama blogs for shit to throw and make a noise to distract from it but Miss Sarah’s speech was brilliant.]

    Did you get that from the Rebups? lol

    She’s a woeful candidate and will be lucky to make it through the campaign without getting dumped

  43. 391 James J – I think she will lead them to the next election along with a new broom being put through cabinet. It may not save them but I don’t think Labor will sit around and go to the slaughter without major surgery taking place in the meantime. If it’s not working as is, there’s nothing to lose with such change IMHO.

  44. Palin represents a genuine security risk to the USA and world as there is a real possibility that she could become POTUS. Her lack of exposure and experience in the real world plus her extreme religious politics must be a concern.

    Would she send in USA planes to bomb Russian tanks in Georgia? She might if her fundy right wingers living in fantasy land thinks it would be good for God.

    Unfortunately there is no planet we can escape to if she actually does end up there.

  45. I haven’t seen all of Palin’s speech but I’m sure she presented it well and had all of the necessary phrases and issues that turn republicans on. As one commentator noted on CNN when was the last time a VP or Presidential candidate gave a poor speech to the adoring masses?
    The only question is will she appeal to the independents and reluctant voters. I doubt it personally.

  48. I too am no fan of Belinda Neal but it’s obvious if you can’t get her one way you try the next best thing. She really needs to keep her distance and shut up though.

  49. Dario
    no I watched her speech, I never would have if the media hadn’t had the spotlight on her all week. So curiousity got the better of me as I’m sure it did for a lot more people, If they had made Huck, Juliana etc the VP nomination I’d have had no interest at all and wouldn’t have turned the TV on.. But it’s human nature to want to see what all the fuss is about. so I had a gawk.
    I can’t cop Obama, to me he’s weak and bigheaded and being protected fiercely by the press. Anyone who dare critise their boy gets torn to shreds, and I’m sick of putting up with the same sorta crap here in Oz concering MSM where the Fibs are their darlings.
    Maybe there’s a bit of sympathy too for the underdog as well and a hell of a lot of disillusion as a Hillary supporter but I reckon Miss Sarah did a good job today.
    Sorry but i tell it like I see it. and wouldn’t it be boring if we all agreed on everything lol

  50. I admire your ‘loyalty’ vera, but with all due respect she is a dud candidate and the Repubs know it, hence trotting out all the attacks in the convention. Repub insiders have been caught on open mikes slagging her off as a bad choice and saying that the race is effectively over. They are in a hole and it will take a massive shift to get them out of it.

    As for the media protecting Obama, you obviously haven’t been paying attention for the last year (or are just ignoring it). He’s copped plenty, as has his wife. Now it’s Palin’s turn.

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