The latest weekly Essential Research survey (providing a rolling average of results over the previous fortnight) shows Labor’s lead up to 59-41 after a long stretch on 58-42. Also included are leadership approval ratings which provide an interesting point of comparison with Newspoll: Kevin Rudd has 56 per cent approval and 33 per cent disapproval (compared with 59 per cent and 25 per cent in last week’s 56-44 Newspoll), while Brendan Nelson’s ratings are 24 per cent and 51 per cent (compared with 36 per cent and 39 per cent). Breakdowns are provided telling us how much of this approval and disapproval is “strong”, and there are also results on whether Nelson’s party has given him “the support he deserves”, and on the seasonal workers issue.
Evening Trots,
It seems that the Government is running the untenable line that higher taxes are somehow evidence of brilliant economic management. Shame on Krudd.
Nice to be back after a long haitus.
Now that the dust is settling on the selection of Michael Palin as McCain’s veep. I think this will go down as McCain’s folly in a Monty Python proportion. Obama-Biden will now win.
On the previous thread, I don’t see what evidence there is for Turnbull being any more or less able than, say, Swan, to run the economy.
Finnigans,
It was a crazy decision. I agree, Obama will win.
I don’t think Obama will have the clean sweep he desires. Given the tightness of the polls, and his lack of tangible policy, he has a way to go. The game has changed given the advent of Palin.
By the way, it is hardly a crazy decision. Obama can hardly profess to be a candidate of change when his VP is but a few years younger than McCain and from the same old Washington machine.
The hysterical effort to chastise Salin by dyed-in-the-wool Democrats is a testament to their envy that McCain has pulled a rabbit out of his hat and drowned all serious media coverage of the Denver convention.
At times it is hard to see how either side get figures as high as they do.
I’m tipping the government will improve its rating over the next month or so as the relief of a reduced interest rate is felt through people’s monthly mortgage repayments.
That the whole world is now talking about candidate experience must be a net negative for Obama.
Afterall, he is running for the top job without any real adminstrative experience.
[The hysterical effort to chastise Salin by dyed-in-the-wool Democrats is a testament to their envy that McCain has pulled a rabbit out of his hat and drowned all serious media coverage of the Denver convention.]
His VP announcement was always going to take coverage of the Denver convention away given it’s timing. Who it was didn’t really matter. I wouldn’t call her much of a rabbit either… more like Elmer Fudd with all the gun-toting.
[Afterall, he is running for the top job without any real adminstrative experience]
Neither does McCain though. If anyone seriously thinks a VP that has a year or two as Governor of one of the US’s smallest and most remote states adds much to a ticket then they are kidding themselves.
I’d call 25 years in the Senate, his history as POW etc etc. a reasonable CV filler for the most important job in the world.
Obama, on the other hand………….
How does being a POW give him administrative experience?
Dario,
You keep avoiding the obvious.
“Obama’s got plenty of nothing, but nothing seems plenty for you”.
Well I think the electorate will judge the government by turning interest rates down, though that will seem to contradict the right wing noise squad’s mantra that interest rates are ALWAYS higher udner Labor. What if they aren’t?? 🙂
Meanwhile I don’t know how tenable it was for a conservative “small government” party to think that continual spending of surpluses on marginal seat pork while capital investment declined was being economically responsible? Blocking budget revenue measures in the Senate doesn’t look like a responsible use of a balance of power either. The voters will decide on that too.
GG,
I agree with you, McCain’s got a good CV. In fact he’s more likely, judging from his legislative record, to be able to negotiate with Nancy Pelosi et al, than Obama is.
His age and general grumpiness are more worrying, but people probably say the same about me!
But Palin? Why did he do it? And is she up to being President, if required?
[On the previous thread, I don’t see what evidence there is for Turnbull being any more or less able than, say, Swan, to run the economy.]
Politicians don’t “run the economy”.
[I don’t think Obama will have the clean sweep he desires. Given the tightness of the polls, and his lack of tangible policy, he has a way to go. The game has changed given the advent of Palin.]
WTF? You don’t need a “clean sweep”, 270 electoral college votes is enough.
[I’d call 25 years in the Senate, his history as POW etc etc. a reasonable CV filler for the most important job in the world.]
Maybe so, but the fact he has changed his mind on nearly every substantive issue you care to name over the last 8 years is going to work against him. Thankfully he didn’t pick Mitt Romney as his VP. But he out did himself by picking another person who thinks creationism should be taught in high schools, so he is obviously losing it as he gets older.
ShowsOn, “run the economy” wasn’t my phrase originally, but in some senses, don’t you think politicians do run it?
Put it this way, politicians can stuff the economy up.
Socrates,
Further, the previous Lib Government not spending money on skills training and education is the reason our productivity has plateaued.
By golly I want this Labor Government to commit to skills training on a huge scale.
The key to a secure future in the world is a smarter and more creative workforce.
Why does “…his history as POW etc etc” mean “a reasonable CV filler”?
There were plenty of other POWs, in all wars. Never heard a one of them claim it as a reason to become a street sweeper, let alone for “the most important job in the world”. 25 years in the Senate sounds reasonable but I’d like to see the achievements listed with it (Rolling over like a puppy for GWB doesn’t count as an achievement, by the way).
Palin has already assumed joke status and has been taken away from the media by the Republican handlers. Sort of the reverse of Petey Costello. Hands up those who felt strangely unclean after reading Glenn Milne’s piece today? It was like reading someone else’s love letters. Could these two please just go and get a room somewhere and get it on? And keep the pillow talk to themselves?
ShowsOn,
Palin’s belief in creationism isn’t the point, in fact it’s probably the only aspect of her that makes her a sensible choice. One of the key groups with whom McCain has a popularity gap is the Christian right, and they believe in creationism.
No, the reason she is a defective choice is her gross lack of relevant experience.
Dyno,
At least she is a change you can believe in!
As I said previously, her appeal to the swing state conservatives can not be underesimated. Her appeal to the get out the conservative evangelicals is undoubted.
She seems feisty and no fool.
Could be an inspired choice.
Obama is rapidly becoming last years ‘toy of choice” for the voters.
I don’t really think McCain is the answer to sorting out the US economic mess. Here are some quotes:
“I’m going to be honest: I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated.”
“The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should. I’ve got Greenspan’s book.”
“The fact is we had four years of failed policy. We were losing. We were losing the war in Iraq. The consequences of failure and defeat of the United States of America in the first major conflict since 9/11 would have had devastating impacts throughout the region and the world.” –forgetting the war in Afghanistan, which was launched in October 2001, CBS News interview, July 21, 2008
And just to prove he has lost that common man touch:
“I think — I’ll have my staff get to you. It’s condominiums where ? I’ll have them get to you.” –after being asked how many houses he and his wife, Cindy, own, interview with Politico, Las Cruces, N.M., Aug. 20, 2008
So GG, I distinctly prefer Obama to that. In a two horse race you only have to be better than the other guy. And Obama is. Just as I can vote against Howard here, and not have to pretend that Rudd is perfect. He is still an improvement.
GG @ 23,
There is a 1 in 1000 chance she could turn out to be an inspired choice. Not impossible, just very, very unlikely.
I promise to grovel to you if she does.
I agree by the way, Palin seems no fool. Just way too raw in my view.
Roy Orbison,
Palin is the “Pretty Woman” ,”Working for the Man”. Obama will be “Crying” as everyone works out “She’s Got it”.
Fox News is reporting that Palin has good international experience because Alaska is very close to Russia. Cindy McCain agreed.
Palin is already unravelling.
“I’ve been so focused on state government, I haven’t really focused much on the war in Iraq.” Palin on the Iraq War.
When asked if she’s ready to be president “Absolutely, yup yup.”
“I’m not sure what she brings to the ticket other than she’s a woman and a conservative. Well, she’s a better speaker than McCain,” from mother-in-law.
She’s got some serious abuse of power problems with “Troopergate” due to a petty and vindictive nature which doesn’t augur well for being POTUS.
And McCain didn’t want her. He wanted Lieberman but Rove told McCain he wasn’t allowed to have him.
#
23
Greeensborough Growler Says:
“Obama is rapidly becoming last years ‘toy of choice” for the voters.”
You’ve got to be kidding. Wishful thinking will get you nowhere.
Dyno,
“There is a 1 in 1000 chance she could turn out to be an inspired choice. Not impossible, just very, very unlikely”.
Please point to any credible research study that confirms these figures. Or is it just your humble opinion based on your prejudices.
Socrates,
Can respect a judgement call. Just, I don’t agree.
Steve K,
All pollls are showing a convergence. No wishful thinking there.
GG,
It’s entirely my opinion, and is totally unscientific! (But I think you already knew that).
Sarah Palin is about to find out what Nicole Cornes went through but 100 times worse. Nicole Cornes wasn’t a fool either but she still got slaughtered. One of the most popular searches on Google is “Sarah Palin swimsuit”.
Can we please have a US election thread, I think the topic here is the Essential Research Poll. It only took a couple of posts to return to US politics. YAWN.
With the interest rates “good news” how high will Kev and Labor vote go? 🙂
i thought this was a site about aus. politics not a site for people who live in aust. but belive they know something about a election in another more boring country. I am sure that there are other sites around for persons who want to blog one-handed with their pants around there legs.
you beat me to it ruwake.
ruawake. sorry
Fair comment Ruawake. Not a bad idea William….
As I said earlier and on the previous thread, I think this trend (interest rates down) will be very good for Labor, not only because falling interest ratex are always good for a government, but because it vindicates their budget strategy.
[ShowsOn, “run the economy” wasn’t my phrase originally, but in some senses, don’t you think politicians do run it?]
No I don’t. I think Raoul Castro runs the Cuban economy, I think Kim Jong Il runs the North Korean economy, but I don’t think any Australian politician runs the Australian economy. We have a substantially market economy which runs itself. The RBA determines the price of credit, but again, the RBA board doesn’t have any politicians on it.
The best thing that our politicians can do is use taxes to pay for things that the market won’t provide, like major infrastructure projects as well as education and health institutions which can’t or shouldn’t be run for a profit. But to me that doesn’t equate with running an economy, to me that is providing things that helps the economy run itself.
Ok, ShowsOn, semantics, but fair enough.
Let me put my comment another way: I haven’t seen any evidence that Turnbull would be any worse (or better) at being Treasurer than Swan is.
“The best thing that our politicians can do is use taxes to pay for things that the market won’t provide, like major infrastructure projects as well as education and health institutions which can’t or shouldn’t be run for a profit.”
And they can refrain from doing such things when they are ill-advised. Which is (nearly) as important as doing them when they are needed.
Do you think that maybe a little of the gloss of best economic managers is wearing off. Howard got one thing right i think, when he said the australian
people usually vote the correct way. Sure not always ,but seems they picked right again this time ,so at least a 2 term labour govt. is a cert. no matter what the libs try and throw at them.
Everyone seems to be talking experience re the US race.
Obama v McCain= McCain win
VPs= Dem win
Dem VP and McCain seem to have similar experience.
Obama has more experience then Palin
Therefore the Dem ticket is more experienced
Bert,
Strange call.
Palin is actually the Governor of Alaska. Obama’s experience. Oh, that’s right, there isn’t any.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG. 🙁
GO AWAY with the US crud. 🙁
Does anyone belive now that the major banks now will not pass on the intrest rate cuts. Swan played them absolutley right , ask threat. and then tell. Costello is going to be shown up as the lasiest, luckiest, treasurer of all time.
gg bert diogenes etc, ferk off to another site if you want to play us wankers.
ER seem to be like Morgan last year, always a point or two above Newspoll. If so then this poll indicates nothing has changed and, if anything Labors voted has firmed around the 56-57 mark.
Very low unemployment even in a slowing economy is not going to create enough disenchanted who would also blame Labor to make any difference. IMO
A halt on rate rises and even some small cuts also will make the average voter feel things are coming under control. Fuel prices though under nobody’s control will make people feel more comfortable if they do seem to continue easing in the long term.
The LNP will try and make Labor’s CC policies the scare campaign at the next election. And no doubt big business groups will be pumping out misinformation scare reports in the meantime to prime the audience. Though it will be hard job given the polls that say the majority of the population is behind actually doing something tangible.
Labor must getting close to phase two of their reelection plans whatever they are.
ruawake and madk,
We play under William’s rules.
What happens in the US election is vital to the intersets of Australian political life.
Madk @ 35. Are you male or female?
TP
the thing that the MSM have not picked up is that rudd is now embedded in the peoples mindset.So,like last year, any attack on rudd is actually taken as an affront to most people.
I expect rudd to maintain theses sort of figures up to and into an election.
GP
hope your hiatus was not herniated too much by the fibs leadership antics 🙂
Ru
hear hear