Essential Research: 59-41

The latest weekly Essential Research survey (providing a rolling average of results over the previous fortnight) shows Labor’s lead up to 59-41 after a long stretch on 58-42. Also included are leadership approval ratings which provide an interesting point of comparison with Newspoll: Kevin Rudd has 56 per cent approval and 33 per cent disapproval (compared with 59 per cent and 25 per cent in last week’s 56-44 Newspoll), while Brendan Nelson’s ratings are 24 per cent and 51 per cent (compared with 36 per cent and 39 per cent). Breakdowns are provided telling us how much of this approval and disapproval is “strong”, and there are also results on whether Nelson’s party has given him “the support he deserves”, and on the seasonal workers issue.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

554 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  1. Hey Dario I’m not loyal to any Yank! Don’t insult me, please!
    I don’t reckon it’ll matter much to oz who gets in, Kev’s already on good terms with both cantidates and will be able to work with either.
    I’ve got no doubt your hero will be elected but don’t get too upset with those of us who don’t fall over ourselves praising him lol

  2. vera

    Palin was a newsreader in her speech. If you want a newsreader as POTUS, who has no idea about the economy or national security, good luck.

    Obama writes most of his own speeches. And he certainly writes his important speeches, like the one he gave to the convention and the “race” speech.

    As Dario said, even the Repugs as saying it’s over because of the ridiculous choice of Yup Yup. Peggy Noonan’s pathetic attempts at explaining her bucketing of McCain and Palin are driving a stake through the Repugs heart. But it’s all over youtube. 700,000 people have watched it today.

  3. Someone counted the number of blacks at the Repub Convention – 36.

    Also been hearing that things turned real ugly when Rudy Giuliani whipped up the delegates with a torrent of abuse about Obama.

    There are going to be a lot of sleepless nights if these clowns get another 3 years, especially with Putin in no mood to take any shit.

    As I’ve said before: time to start pricing backyard nuke shelters 🙁

  4. vera,
    I’m not a fan of Ms Palin (for VP that is – I’ve no real objection to her personally) but I have to admit the early write-ups of the speech are very positive. E.g. the NY Times which is normally very pro-Democrat.
    I’m not changing my original prognosis that she’s a dud candidate, but I am feeling slightly more nervous about it …
    On who Rudd can best work with, a key point is that based on past history (and current rhetoric) Obama is likely to be more protectionist than McCain. This will be a problem for Oz. But overall I agree with you, no big deal either way for Oz.

  5. #397 – Dario, apparently the diminutive Brenda Nelson has to be “rescued” from the Amazonian Belinda Neal by the newly crowned Julie “i am Sarah Palin” Bishop.

    Bill Leak was spot on:

  6. Well said Vera

    I wonder if a successful woman has made many insecure men more insecure , I wonder why th birth of a down syndrome child instead of being beloved should be turned into sleeze , I wonder why a 17 yearold teenagers pregnancy should be publicly ridiculed when family ar supposed to be off limits , I wonder why unproven often sordid alegations against th Lady ar so freely publicised with glee

    Most of all , I wonder why those that profess ”standards” so freely trash them against a political opponent But then there is always that well worn excuse of “relevance” and “context”….coincidently an excuse also used by th “right”

    For a Lady who is alegedly so imperfect and one politcally not to fear , she has generated a lot of comment , so much so th Lady may just be th most known Lady on earth at moment

    Oiliness’s response typical oiliness , twist th truth as if oiliness writes all his own speechs , or did his good mate th convicted Rezko write his speech About time some reel positive policys were put up so they can be later benched marked (because ANY Democrat was going to be a NON Bush)

  7. [Hey Dario I’m not loyal to any Yank!]

    lol, I didn’t mean it that way… I meant loyalty to your original position with someone you were originally a fan of despite the evidence subsequently piling up against her

  8. Finnigans,
    Be all that as it may (yes, it was a funny cartoon), if I was Neal I’d still be planning for life post-politics (straight after the next election). She is (to use the phrase of the day) a “gift that keeps on giving”, and, in view of how little else the Libs have to work with at the moment, it would be naive to think they’re going to ease up on her one iota.
    We haven’t even had the TV exclusives from the restaurant staff yet, but they’ll be on the way …
    She holds the seat by something like 200 votes. If the ALP doesn’t get her, the voters will!

  9. [I wonder if a successful woman has made many insecure men more insecure , I wonder why th birth of a down syndrome child instead of being beloved should be turned into sleeze , I wonder why a 17 yearold teenagers pregnancy should be publicly ridiculed when family ar supposed to be off limits , I wonder why unproven often sordid alegations against th Lady ar so freely publicised with glee]

    Ron, I have absolutely no idea why you are wondering why, when in reality nothing is off limits in a US presidential campaign. I mean Obama still gets accused of being a muslim ffs!

  10. Vera, that petulant little twerp better wins in November, otherwise he will be lynched by the old oak tree for losing an unloseable election and disturbing the Dems’ mandate from heaven to govern.

    I blame him completely for the situation as is now. He should have waited, and then he should have picked Hillary as the veep. He didn’t do both, so it is on his head to win.

    If the Dems is not careful, Palin could turn out to be Margaret Thatcher Mark II.

  11. Ron,
    I can be fair dinkum and admit that Palin did much better than expected today.
    You should be able to be fair dinkum, too, and admit that Obama is a rare talent.

  12. Ron

    I don’t fear Palin politically. I fear having her as POTUS. Even the Repugs have admitted she is a dud when then actually tell the truth. Noonan and Murphy are hard core neocons.

    When Chuck Todd asked her if this was the most qualified woman the Republicans could nominate, Noonan responded, “The most qualified? No. I think they went for this, excuse me, political bullshit about narratives. Every time the Republicans do that, because that’s not where they live and that’s not what they’re good at, they blow it.”

    Murphy characterized the choices as “cynical” and “gimmicky.”

  13. Dio,
    Yes, I agree with you, I doubt very much if she is up to the job of POTUS. Which in turn means she’s not up to the job of VPOTUS.
    However I admit my equilibirum on this topic has been a little disturbed by the way her speech has been reported today. Maybe an Alaskan Amazon who doesn’t take sh.t is just what small-town America wants in a VP. But I still doubt it.

  14. Dyno

    The thing that is really relevant is not so much that Palin is a featherweight regressive redneck hick, it’s that McCain would pick someone so inept for purely cynical reasons. It shows a terrible lack of judgement and complete contempt for his own argument about Obama not having enough experience. That was his main advantage over Obama with the independents and he’s blown them off.

  15. [However I admit my equilibirum on this topic has been a little disturbed by the way her speech has been reported today]

    It all comes down to expectations really. Palin has been hammered in the media since being nominated for various reasons and not much expected of her, so even an average performance would have been seen by many as a positive against a sea of negatives.

  16. Dio,
    I basically agree with you about the choice of Palin.
    Having said that, just to play devil’s advocate, have you checked out today?
    When a Republican gets the Guardian team saying words to the effect of “The speech might have been full of rubbish … but it was brilliant” you know it’s more than just your average schmaltzy American effort.

  17. Finnigans
    On 10 news Julie Bishop was acting the scared little woman in need of protection, said she felt menanced and had to take a step backwards!
    A Palin she aint.

  18. Family feuds are the nastiest.

    “In the brief cover story, the Enquirer also says this:

    The ugly family feud stems from a three-year battle between the 44-year-old governor and her former brother-in-law, state trooper Mike Wooten.

    “Sarah has many enemies in her hometown – but a lot of them are in her own extended family,” a source close to the Palin family told The Enquirer.

    Family members loyal to Wooten are now waging a campaign to drag Palin’s reputation through the mud.”

  19. hi Ron
    not being an Oilbama fan I’m just sitting back now enjoying the circus. no emotional feelings one way or t’other. Democrats are dead certs (well that’s what msm says 5 to 10 point lead) and allthough the contest might be well and truly over the soap opera continues lol.
    I don’t get stressed out (like i did when Kev was up against the Rodent) so I’m feeling relaxed and comfortable (who said that?) and since Sarah arrived on the sceen it’s getting more entertaining everyday.
    I don’t know if I’m watching a family drama an adventure epic or a wild western but I got my popcorn and am standing by for the next episode.

  20. Finally, that petulant little twerp acknowledges that he needs Hillary more than ever to win in Nov.

    [Expect Clinton to seek to counter Palin’s working-class appeal in the rural, average-Joe areas of the country where the New York senator has proved “extraordinarily popular” with both men and women, said Nassau Democratic chairman Jay Jacobs, who campaigned for her in Pennsylvania, Texas and northern New Hampshire. “She’s naturally comfortable in that environment.”

    The Obama campaign clearly gets that part. “Senator Clinton is a champion for working people and we know millions of Americans are looking forward to seeing her on the campaign trail this fall,” campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki said.],0,4322864.story

  21. Clinton will be lining up for a cushy gig if Obama gets in with her help. She’s only 60 isn’t she? Possible candidate still in 2016 perhaps?

  22. A housewife in Wasilla ‘close’ to the Palin family since 1992 and intimately knowledgeable of her life/activities has written a missive on Palin. It is relatively detailed and knowledgeable of historic events, describes personal events. Mostly mundane but reveals some quite unpleasant character traits of Palin. Some good background character material on her.

    The way that it is written would indicate it is quite genuine and the woman pretty well identifies herself. She puts it under the comments section.

  23. I wonder who Bludgers would vote for president if they were voting in November? I just don’t want to see the Repblicans get in this time. They don’t desrve it after putting up Bush. The further we can get away from those policies the better.

  24. Hi Vera

    yes my feelings also , notice th petulance & feelings of SOME replies as if questioning th messiah , as if religous zealots not liking diverse opinions

    Those ‘mates ‘of oiliness Rezko & Rev Wright ar not a mirage they ar a public fact Amazing is not it that objective ‘people’ would not absolutely condemn him for both

    When you get time you may like to check on another guy called William Ayres (there’s a number with this name but this particular one was part of th ‘weathermen’) after that got other ‘mates’ as well

    Hello Dyno
    your ‘non experience orientated’ comments on th lady hav been non critical & as I understand you you think they’re nothing your concern seems to be experience only , so happy to measure that against a one term Senator who at best should be VP no higher

    In answer to your last question , Oiliness I’ve said previously is best Orator I’ve seen far better actor than Ronald Reagan Obama could carry off th part in West Wing well i think However no use people speaking pretty words & not believing what you say nor being eloquent but not suporting Kyoto or universal healthcare whereas John Edwards supported both (but does not talk as nice)
    Give ma a bland Edwards anyday , he believes in what he says , better still an Al Gore

  25. [Give ma a bland Edwards anyday , he believes in what he says , better still an Al Gore]

    Slight problem with him cheating on his cancer stricken wife, but hey I guess McCain cheated as well…

  26. Ron,
    You have represented me pretty accurately.
    Palin has views that seem odd to most Australians (guns, abortion, etc) but within the context of the Republican Party they are nothing out of the ordinary. Some of her views on religion would be acceptable within the Dem Party as well. America is different to here.
    So far I don’t think the Palin scandals have legs, though this area is obviously a watching brief. But so far I think they’ve all been in the realm of “so what” (the pregnant daughter and the waters-breaking flight), contested facts (Troopergate) or standard politician behaviour (the apparent back-flip on the Bridge to Nowhere, and ruthless elimination of opponents). If a candidate has charisma none of those sort of things will really hurt them too much.
    But yes, I think her cv is woefully inadequate for the job.
    Obama has no executive experience, true. But he’s been running for President non-stop for four years, and in a sense, for most of his adult life. Plenty of testing there.

  27. GG,

    Have you heard we have yet another Labor power couple in NSW?

    Our Deputy Premier who is partners with the Federal Transport Minister? They are out there fighting for all of us on half a million a year!!

    We have other power couples too – the workers can sleep easy knowing they are looking after them.

    On Palin – she’s a hit big time – how’s that Intrade contract Diogenes – deflated??

  28. The Intrade Contract halved after the speech Diogenes – I better not post about it anymore I’ll get another loony email from crazy Catrina.

  29. A poll on women’s response to the Palin pick.

    But 52 percent of voters polled in a survey for the women’s activist group Emily’s List said they would vote for the Democrat ticket of Barack Obama and his VP choice Joseph Biden, against 41 for the Republicans.

    The poll, carried out by random dialing of 800 women on Sunday and Monday, shows that 50 percent of women voters felt McCain picked Palin out of political expediency and not because he believes she has the experience to do the job.

    Only 29 percent said he had picked her to run in the November 4 elections because he believed she was qualified to be vice president.

    And when asked which ticket had the most experience to run the country, 52 percent opted for the Democrats compared to 37 percent for the Republicans.;_ylt=Ao_CWJ8LGFDeL8E6CO23XABsnwcF

  30. ESJ

    I heard she didn’t slobber too much during her speech. Evidently that pleasantly surprised a few pundits. I couldn’t listen to it myself. That shrill screeching gave me a headache. Hillary’s was much better.

    Poblano makes a good point about her speech. It was the usual divisive crap Bushies come up with. No-one is going to change their opinion on Obama, who has record high favourable ratings (equal with Bill at 63%), based on some-one they don’t know and don’t trust. She won’t have persuaded anyone to move from Obama to McCain.

  31. Is that baby real? Saw him in the wind at the airport. Saw him at the campaign launch. Saw him being passed around at the RNC like a rag doll.

    But he was sleeping all of the times, no movement, perfectly still, no crying, he must be a pretty good sleeper for a baby.

  32. ESJ

    PaddyPower has Palin at 3/1 to get kicked off the ticket, in from 8/1 a couple of days ago. For mine, it all depends on whether she can stall the Troopergate investigation long enough (or get a change of jurisdiction) coz I think it’s going to recommend criminal charges.

  33. I was not impressed with Belinda Neil before Iguanas Waterfront Bar affair , and incident & subsequently handling of her didnn’t improve my opinion So hope she does not get re endorsed on principal not th fact its a marginal seat that now given Iguanas is more dificult Not comfortable with Belinda Neal representing people as a politcan

    Yes I’d take a cheating Edwards over that phoney , just as th cheating JFK was better than Nixon in 1960 , rand th cheating Billy was better than Bush one but those Dems stood for something As does Edwards & Gore like suporting ratifying Kyoto & universal healthcare ar there core values , and oiliness no no on them , he’s got pretty words as his core values

    your first 90% of your post we ar in agreement , might add Obama is pro Gun as well even supporting consevative Supreme Court decision to disallow Washington City law that had banned hand guns etc AGAINST ‘left’ Judges decision

    As to experience , in todays World of globisation & instability th role of POTUS is a bigger job than VP by far yet th Lady has at least had 2 years as an effective State Premier being a governor with executive responsibilities , Obama has had zero yet HE is running for th bigger job , so IF there is an experience argument against th Lady then I’d believe consistent that equally an experience argument lies against oiliness Secondly as World is far more complex & challenging these days all POTUS’s in last 30 years or so hav been a Governor or VP beforehand including Bush that doesn’t diminish th point it shows even then a dim wit gets through , but that stepping stone principa is used in Corporate structures as well
    Thirdly ar you still somewhat ambivilent re result

  34. Ronster

    Isn’t it time to do what Hillary and almost all her supporters suggest and jump aboard the good ship Obama? You’ll feel a whole lot better about the result.

    Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds more former Hillary Clinton backers currently supporting Barack Obama (81%) than prior to the Democratic convention (70%).

  35. Dario

    Don’t forget her 6 years as mayor of a town with 6,000 people. She had 50 employees to look after! Admittedly she sacked most of them when they didn’t agree with her, or refused to join her book-burning bonfires.

  36. Ron,
    I am only ambivalent about the result because I admire McCain’s POW experience and much of what he’s done in the Senate. It’s a tragedy he didn’t get the nomination in 2000. I think he would have been a better President than Gore would have been (two hypotheticals so who really knows) and it goes without saying he would have been heaps better than Bush.
    In 2008 I think the world needs a Democrat President, and I think Obama will be ok. He might even be good or great, it depends who he gets into Cabinet and how he harnesses the talents of others. And of course, as Harold Macmillan said, it depends on events.

  37. btw
    julie bishop is at rollop and rumour monger

    2 of my close friends were on the alleged flight when belinda had words with the trainee eunuch

    nelson is a mummys boy

  38. Diogenes – Your sounding very harsh left today! Your own reference was to Intrade – its gone from a 15% probability to 8% probability.

    Of course McCain has made a faustian bargain – the right gets the presidency in exchange for backing him in 4 or 8 years.

    Finnigans – I am getting the feeling Obama is going down bigtime. Whatever happened to the 50 state strategy – that was abandoned 4 weeks ago. Competing in the South – gone!
    He’ll get wiped in the West – Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico will be a lock for McCain by Early October and with that the election.

    Such a missed opportunity for the Democrats!!

  39. Dyno

    My #439 was based on many reasons regarding relative experience of th two people , my ambivalent bit was an aside I’d suggest Biden was selected despite his Iraq policys simply to prop upthat very lack of any senior execitive Obama experience , any in some ways just hightlights that inexperience more Secondly th Ladys 2 years as governernor ar worth more than oiliness 4 years in Senate given Obama is going for higher job Also as said companys don’t promote from factory floor to CEO there’s increasing promotions with increasing
    responsibilities , fourthly IF th Lady is inexperienced for VP then so is Obama for POTUS

    As an aside , you think McCain better than gore , i think reverse but accept maverick would hav been better than Bush , not sure people ar aware

    Elsewhere you’d pretty well become disallusioned with oiliness to point of neither were worth it somewhat , now you’ve been ‘reincarnated’ , astonishing Stiop being disengenuous , you know I’ve posted I’m now an informal voter not backing a phoney

  40. Gusface “ps just got home and boy am i pissed off with this prima donna’s shite”

    Gus , your friends think our Julie comforted Brendan by creating a headline in his defence to sooth his shattered confidence

  41. Ron

    Picking Palin has re-energised me, as it has many other disaffected lefties.

    I’ve always respected McCain as a person. Sure he’s a bit unstable and dangerous, but I still like him as a person. He’s not a nutcase extreme right throwback to the days before The Enlightenment. But Palin is. If McCain had’ve chosen Crist, Pawlenty or Ridge I would still be pretty apathetic.

    PS Palin’s record as mayor of Wasilla is pretty similar to the Howard-Cossie years. When she came in the budget was balanced. She spent up big to get re-elected, had to raise taxes and left with a $21M deficit. Perhaps Tip is hanging out for a job in the US if she wins.

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