Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition in NSW

The latest bi-monthly New South Wales state Newspoll shows the Coalition maintaining its 52-48 lead, although Labor has recovered a point on the primary vote. Barry O’Farrell’s lead over Morris Iemma as preferred Premier is steady at 39-32, and his satisfaction rating is up three points to 40 per cent. Morris Iemma’s approval rating remains at a disastrous 26 per cent, although his disapproval is down three points to 60 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

133 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition in NSW”

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  1. The funniest thing GG is that if Barry O’Farrell is the first new Liberal Premier since what 2002 he will be the conservative version of Neville Wran.

  3. LOL GG, you know me so well.

    Umm Wran was the first new Labor premier after EGW went down, perhaps Barry will be the first Liberal premier elected after JWH went down.

  5. Obama’s decline is not sudden. It has been apparent and ongoing since Super Tuesday. Basically, Obama caught a parked car and has wondered WTF to do with it ever since.

    McCain has actually set the agenda re Oil drilling locally rather than depending on the Arabs. The “surge’ has clearly worked at this point in Iraq. I dare say Putin took the $3.50 on offer and has been providing a bit of insurance of his own.

    I thought that it was going to be real close. But now, McCain comfortably for me.

  6. “Documents leaked to the Nine Network (of Labor internal polling) show NSW Labor would shed 21 seats and lose by five seats if the election were held today.”

    As I posted in #74 from part of Antony Greens analysis supplied to NSW Parliamentary Research service , so many combinations of electon results by seat ar possible with varying primary bvotes obtained couplled with optional pref voting , Minority partys someimes giving out HTV’s by seat and sometimes not in other seats , pref Labor in one seat and Liberals in another seat etc , so predicted 21 seat loss as of now by internal polling is not necessarily same ‘quality accuracy ‘ as if it was done in another State

    However given abov ‘combinations’ menetioned , a 21 seat loss over 93 seats is still indicative of gross magnatude of voter disatisfacton , “message” is there that problem is not perseption but both leader and policy , conversely ‘five seats loss’ means a window of opportunity is there to redeeem

  7. re: ESJ @ #101

    Aren’t you a long way off track comparing Barry O’Farrell to Neville Wran?

    O’Farrell is using the same policies that proved so successful for Peter Coleman in 1978!
    IMHO O’Farrell will go down in history in the same group as John Mason and Tom Lewis.

  8. The slippery slide of the ALP in NSW has been apparent and ongoing for some time.
    The corrupt, bullying, reputation they have will cost the ALP dearly in the council elections.
    The thugs running the circus don’t care about the party, their snout is so far into the pork barrel even their ears are covered.

  12. Yes of course “judge” your obviously an East German People’s Court variety of judge with wordplay like that. The local people’s committees will ironically all decide in the same way of course.

  15. The Judge

    As you say

    “The slippery slide of the ALP in NSW has been apparent and ongoing for some time.
    The corrupt, bullying, reputation they have will cost the ALP dearly in the council elections.
    The thugs running the circus don’t care about the party, their snout is so far into the pork barrel even their ears are covered.”

    The biggest question for the Green is whether they will in the next NSW election support such a regime, and thus making it impossible for the NSW ALP to stay in power.

    Or whether they will preference the ALP and shows that they are just Lackeys of the ALP

  16. Besides “Judge” didnt a certain ALP comrade with bad dental work order that colleagues on Leichardt council vote with the Libs against the Greens? Surely the people demand swift vengeance?

  17. If that’s so Eddy, it woulden’t supprise any one.
    The Greens are used to the dirty tactics of the LIB/LAB Club.
    Still over one million Australians have seen past their bully tactics and voted Greens, amazing really.

  22. In Blacktown at the last state election the Greens did not preference the ALP. In fact there were no directions as to preferences at all on the HTV a luxury afforded to the politically pure at heart by the optional preferential system pertaining in NSW.

    Not that it made one whit of difference as the Funky Gibson romped home despite having been as recently as 1998 been the subject of comment at the ICAC:

    Gibson is evidently a man of good reputation who has held for some years and apparently with some distinction a position of honour and responsibility. He is a man who in principle might reasonably expect his statements upon matters of fact to be treated with respect and to be accepted unless controverted absolutely by some objective material. He is a man whose calling requires him to speak in public both in the Parliament and outside. He is a man who might be expected to have an ability to think before he speaks and to choose his words with precision to convey his meaning to his listeners in a manner which is unmistakable. With this in mind one approaches his evidence in proceedings such as this with an expectation of truth, frankness and accuracy.

    Regrettably, Gibson when giving evidence in this Commission, and there is no basis whatsoever to distinguish his evidence before Commissioner O’Keefe from his evidence before myself, did not clearly display those expected attributes.

    There is a need to exercise caution before rejecting a witness’s evidence merely on the basis of an apparent difference between what he says on one occasion about a particular matter and what he says about the same matter on another occasion. The process of fact-finding involves more than merely a comparison of verbiage, it is concerned with substance and the fact-finder must seek to determine what the witness intended to convey by the words which he used. I have kept that need well in mind in my examination of Gibson’s evidence.

    Throughout the whole of his evidence he showed a remarkable capacity to give inconsistent answers within the space of a few minutes or, having given an unequivocal answer, thereafter to seek to qualify it. He had a tendency, when asked what was said by somebody on a particular occasion, to answer in unequivocal terms and then, when challenged, to claim that all he had done was to reconstruct or speculate.

    All too often his answers consisted of incoherent and scarcely comprehensible rambling, sprinkled with meaningless phrases, which, coming from an apparently intelligent man, were calculated to raise a strong suspicion that he was concerned to obfuscate rather than assist the Commission to determine the facts. He was much given to unresponsive answers, often self-serving. He was totally resistant to the attempts by Commissioner O’Keefe, by myself, by counsel assisting from time to time, and even on occasion from his own counsel, to get him to respond specifically and carefully to the questions.

    The problem may not be lack of honesty, but only lack of care in his expression, but it makes it extremely difficult to place any confidence in the reliability of his evidence.

    But it has to be said that he is a dab hand at raising funds for the party. And since his re-election he has opposed the privatisation of the electricity industry although whether this is un-adjacent to his somewhat sharpish dumping from the post election ministry by Mo Io is open to speculation by the unkind and cynical.

  23. Gazza who said intemperately

    Council elections? Who cares? Get a life.

    must be from one of the smaller states or territories. The fact is that on September 13 far more people will vote for their LGA representatives than will vote in upcoming WA election. Indeed the turnout for the election of the Blacktown City councillors will be greater than that in the NT recently. And bear in mind that each councillor will represent about 2.5 times as many people as in any of the NT’s pocket electorates.

    It is a matter of some regret that Bill won’t open a thread on this statewide plebiscite of the mood of the people and which perhaps will be a bellwether of Mo Io’s fate in the coming weeks.

  24. Well, Albert, wrong again. Here in Victoria (oh, what a small state that is) council elections have as much interest as watching paint dry. I’m very politically minded but I couldn’t tell you who, on my council, is with which party or faction. It just isn’t a big deal. So try again.

  25. And Surprise Surprise, The Tip has piked on challenging as leader.

    FORMER treasurer Peter Costello says he will not be challenging for the leadership of the Liberal Party.

    Current leader Brendan Nelson’s ongoing poor performance in opinion polls has raised speculation that Mr Costello might be lured back to the frontbench to lead the Coalition to the next election.

    Mr Costello broke his silence today with a rare doorstop interview in Melbourne.

    He was asked why he was not letting his party and the Australian people know whether he intended to challenge for the leadership.

    “Well I am not,” Mr Costello said.

    Asked if that meant he was not challenging, he replied: “Everyone knows that.”

    He was not asked if he would stand for the leadership if Dr Nelson stepped down.

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24218429-5005361,00.html

  26. As I said on another thread, you get the feeling Cossie is protecting Brendan from Malcolm. All Brendan has to do now is not call for a leadership spill because Malcolm won’t dare challenge while Cossie is there.

  28. Mexican Gazza invitingly says:

    It just isn’t a big deal. So try again.

    Well Vic is a big state (full of big hearted people like Cossie) I will concede.

    Your attitude is probably coloured by the history of LG in Vic. My understanding is that until they were given the Jeff treatment they were tiny entities without a lot of power. Since amalgamation they are much bigger and have widerish powers but I suppose that the attitude that they are very parish pump is going to take a long time to change.

    In NSW LGAs have tended to be bigger and with amalgamations over the last 40 years have got bigger. They have had fairly wide powers and have been battlegrounds between the ALP (and its factions) and the dark forces of the right either through proxies such as Civic Reform/Residents Action Groups or more latterly as out of the closet endorsed Liberals. Service as a councillor and especially as mayor has been seen as a stepping stone to greater glory at State and Federal level.

    The political parties and the various independents take the NSW LGA elections seriously although the powers of the LGAs have steadily been eroded and there always seems to be quite a deal of public interest in the elections and the subsequent activities of those elected.

  33. Let me modify that for GG’s sake. “My attitude is coloured by the way me and most Victorians see councils here in Victoria and I stick by it.”

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