Presidential election minus 19 weeks

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,113 comments on “Presidential election minus 19 weeks”

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  1. Oh Diogenes ,

    meant to answer your query first Do not agree with Obama’s lame TV interview on how to handle either Darfur or Mugabe , nor McCain’s mushy response too
    I kept re-reading that 200,000 figure in Darfur sorry Diogenes , but i would send the US military into both and rwanda and clean it up , arret the war lords in sudan etc and mugabe and if the rest of the world objected , i’d say , you’ve had years and faile and people are dying Now my condition of invasion would b the Intell first to make sure it will succeed , and to be able to get out and out quickly And i’d havy ‘friends’ to pitch in with peace keepers immediately after because the US should not be an occupier treatment Whats the use of the military power if it it is not done to help other peoples

  2. I’m not going to get my hopes up about Florida! I well remember how painful 2000 was when that state was taken off Gore, I was literally devestated!

  3. Kakuru @ 13,

    I find your analysis a bit confusing. You drift back and forth between talking about the Senate contests and the presidential contest to the extent that it’s unclear what you’re talking about when you bring up certain states.

    Virginia is a tough nut to crack for the Dems; but they have a good Senate candidate in the shape of former Gov Mark Warner

    The Senate race is a foregone conclusion. Warner left office with massively high approval ratings and remains very popular in the state. Polls show him comfortably ahead.

    But I think Obama is dreaming if he thinks he can carry Virginia in the pres election.

    This is too dismissive. It’s widely recognised that Virginia is gradually getting less Republican. Whether Obama can cash in on that trend in 2008 is the big question. Personally, I think it’s a hell of a lot more plausible than some other red states mooted (e.g. Georgia). If McCain’s the favourite here, he’s no more than a narrow favourite. In fact, the last three polls to come out of VA have Obama ahead.

    http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/vapres/

  4. 81
    Enemy Combatant

    Ecky, I’m scrawling this with a thumbnail dipped in tar, and the perspiration dripping from the fingers to the keys.

    I’ve not been droving, (nor driving), but trying to beat a deadline before another one beats me, so it’s head down and tapping, and I’ve just this minute come up for air.

    And by the way, you caught my eye with the trucker’s lament, as it’s been a bit that way to tell the truth, but I’d prefer the big Pav, (at his best), to jolly Bryn, but that’s a quibble for another day. Let’s just say I’ve heard the big pizza up close a few times, and it’s not something you ever forget to smile at.

    Speaking of music, the big lad played the goanna the other day, and the venue had this hanging on the wall:

    Music is a moral law. It gives soul to the universe, wings to the mind, flight to the imagination, a charm to sadness, and a life to everything.

    Plato

    I’d memorised it by the concert’s end, and when we got home, the darling 7 seven year old asked me what ‘moral’ meant, as he’d noticed the plaque too, and then we wrote out the quote together.

  5. And by the way Ecky, don’t miss Seinfeld’s homage:

    THE honest truth is, for a comedian, even death is just a premise to make jokes about. I know this because I was on the phone with George Carlin nine days ago and we were making some death jokes. We were talking about Tim Russert and Bo Diddley and George said: “I feel safe for a while. There will probably be a break before they come after the next one. I always like to fly on an airline right after they’ve had a crash. It improves your odds.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/24/opinion/24seinfeld.html?hp

  6. 153 Progressive Keep your eye on it, there’s a long way to go yet.

    KR I am honoured to be called another KR. I have been accused of being another you. You can guess who by. Then it’s definitely good!

  7. I think Obama has a damn good chance of winning Virginia this election year, and he’ll be riding on Warner’s coat tails!

  8. 158 Progressive I’ll second that. With the money Obama’s got, the advertising down the will be huge. The advertising cost is cheap compared to NY etc.

  9. And Northern Virginia in particular is trending more Democrat/blue these days, Tim Kaine and Jim Webb owe their recent victories to strong support in that part of the state, it tends to balance out the Republican Southern areas.

  10. CB, you can do the radio!

    Broadcast the good news, and take the flak, and ride down the highway with the big Pav in flight…

  11. Ron at 107: “well DailyKos, fish & chips credibility there….”

    Ron, would one be correct in assuming that you are giving Markos Moulitsis and his Kossacks a big wrap here?

    “In June 2006, members of Daily Kos organized the first ever political blogger convention, called YearlyKos, in Las Vegas, Nevada. The event was attended by approximately 1000[9] bloggers and featured appearances by prominent Democrats such as Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, California Senator Barbara Boxer, General Wesley Clark, Governors Mark Warner, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack and DNC Chair Howard Dean. The event was widely covered in the traditional media including Capitol Hill Blue,[10] The Boston Globe[11] and MSNBC[12]. C-Span also carried portions of the convention.[13]

    The event was generally[14] considered a success. YearlyKos 2007 took place in Chicago in August 2007, at which time it was announced that future conventions would be known as Netroots Nation.[15]”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daily_Kos
    ————–
    Kirri, that’s a wonderful story and quote from Plato. (also Jerry S’s Op-Ed.)

    For you and budding goana man.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6pphVs8bF0

    Great to see you back. You too, Jen.

  12. anyone catch any of this today in Canberra…I couldn’t make it:

    http://tokblog.org/?p=459

    …but this guy gives a few ideas.

    maybe PB should have a few members turn up and do mud wrestling or Ecky thump demonstrations (sorry, EC couldn’t resist! LOL)

  13. Well, Ron, isn’t it about time we held our own?
    Already had some firm expressions of interest for the Wed. morning (Nov 5 EST) of the tally at a joint as yet undecided in Brissy. Would you attend? We’re twisting Jen’s arm to get a cheapie return flight from Melbourne. Imagine that, a bunch of Bludgers gathering for a few hours to witness and live-blog one of the most significant moments in recent planetary politics.
    ———————–
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PRNNb1kRpQ

    http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55196

    http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55228

    (Dig it, Dio!)
    http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55229

  14. Holy Toledo Kirri, is that synchonicity orwot? In blogspeak I think that’s what they call it when we cross but not angry:)

  15. Wed June 24:
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AhRwkblJWpvabv.DLllfURxT_b4F

    {This conference (Rio Earth Summit 1992) was attended by George H. W. Bush(Poppy), then President of the United States of America, who proved resistant to efforts to make deep and lasting changes that could ensure protection of the world on which all nations depend. His reasoning? “The American way of life is not negotiable”.}
    http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55232

    http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55240
    ————
    BO, the rot’s really starting to set in now. Be fascinating to watch Johnny Bomb-Bombs presidential aspirations blow up like a monster IED on the outskirts of Baghdad’s Green Zone.

  16. Would have to go in the Quantas luggage compartment , drssed as a suitcase

    Blindoptimist , those are not good trends at all and there’s that perpetualy created cycle effect thats been created and this is partly the result of efeecticely no regulation and loose credit risk decsion critiria Wonder if the Chinese & those despotic oil Sheiks reckon gold is looking better than the US currency by the day for all there richs

  17. 172
    Enemy Combatant

    …and B/O, the trend ain’t their friend, not this time around the block. And no, it ain’t gonna look pretty any time this decade (at least).

    Of course some of us have been saying for quite some time that this would be the 4×2 to the electors’ frontal lobes, and so far, it seems perfectly on target to have that effect.

    Johnny B-B from company B(ahgdad) can blow on his horn with all his might, but the ethanol’s in the corn and and the oil’s under the desert sands, and it’s all a mangled kid’s nursery rhyme with not much point…a bit like his whole campaign, really.

  18. Two options are available to those who object to my moderation rulings: a) put up with it; b) go away. Note that this list does not include c) whingeing. Those who exercise this non-existent third option risk being banned. Please try to remember that this is my website and not yours, and as such I will let you comment here only if I feel like it. Thank you for your co-operation.

  19. Codge, old Bolton has been itching to shoot off his bolt since Kim Jong Il was a boy, but like Dr Strangelove (or, should that be “Dr Strangeglove”???) he’s got a recalcitrant arm, that just can’t quite be controlled.

    I’ve always imagined his moustache twitching like some character from the cartoons (Rocky and Bullwinkle, but don’t quote me!) everytime someone says ‘nuke’. Too sad, the old Bolt.

    As for Herr Zimmer wid da glimmer in his eye long gone, he’s truly past it, eh? Flash Gordon? He needs some flash memory, just to bring him up to this century, let alone this nearly ended decade.

    Oh, sod it, look at the time…gotta…gotta, stop working and hit the sack.

    night

  20. I reckon Crazy John Bolton could become the first Neocon suicide bomber if someone doesn’t goddamn bomb bomb I-ran soon.

    I can see that crazy mutherf**ker strapping himself up to the gunnels and detonating himself in the main street of I-ran…or in the United Nations building…or in Robert Gates’ office….hell anywhere you lily livered cowardly realists can see the greatness of the four letter word(get down on your knees and bow) BOMB.

    In immortal neocon speak….Faster, Faster Please…Bomb Bomb Bomb.

  21. #147 [and as for me well i’m the cause], yes amigo, you are the naughty one.

    * you caused cat woman’s bruised ego,
    * my pet’s petulant
    * the daily convulsion,
    * stole the thunder of Showy,
    * invented a new net language,
    * made the Platonian logic illogically logical
    * caused the flappin’ of the buttrflies that led to the tsunami
    * exposed the lazy one (Jen, You should go and read what actually happened), as per her usual self
    * fixed Swanee heart attack for me
    * made fish & chips trendy again
    * the reason for the sun is shining

    other than that you haven’t done much my amigo, a very good day for you, GG and the PBs. Just an advice to the C one, dont take it too seriously.

  22. Great day of polling for the Kid
    Michigan + 9 PPP
    Indiana + 1 SurveyUSA
    and NAtional LA Times/Bloomberg +12

    Everywhere he has been weak, he has turned around in the last few weeks, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire and now Michigan

    Looks like ESJs Thanksgiving Turkey might need more time in the oven eh?

  23. Timbo: the Hillary supporters are coming over to Obama’s side, their joint campaign appearance later this week should help further reconciliation!
    I’ll predict Michigan stays in the Democrat column this November
    Indiana? A sleeper, potentially interesting!

  24. 181
    HarryH

    Maybe Bolten could start his own company: Patriot InVest

    Frustrated with your political leaders? Think they’re a bunch of girly men that would rather talk than bomb?

    Well, here at Patriot InVest we take the lead away from the leaders and InVest you with the power of one…one god (or Allah) almighty blast to get you into heaven and them into the other place!

    At Patriot InVest, our motto is “Explode with passion” and we take pride in every customer.

    Get yourself InVested today, and join hundreds of other fully satisfied customers…on the other side.

  25. BO at 171
    Yep it’s all happening. Never a dull moment.

    http://www.builderonline.com/mortgages-and-banking/fbi-arrests-60-people.aspx?cid=BLDR080610002

    http://www.builderonline.com/economic-conditions/minnesota-builder-files-chapter-11.aspx?cid=BLDR080610002

    I wish some IT nerd would tell me how they are going to stop the fraudulent vote counting with the “Die-Bold” machines.
    Big O can have all the Mo he is getting but if they can not neuter the fraud counts it means for nothing.

  26. 193 EC

    Brilliant toon.

    I’ve noticed i always seem to admire that Pat Oliphant’s work. Is he a particularly famous tooner or new kid on the block?

    He’s good.

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