Bits and pieces

Seems Morgan have taken the week off, not counting its release of qualitative findings from federal polling conducted from June 4 to 9, leaving the following collection to stand on its own:

• The Launceston Examiner has published findings from an EMRS poll showing new Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett leading Liberal leader Will Hodgman 46 per cent to 32 per cent as preferred premier, whereas Paul Lennon trailed 32 per cent to 17 per cent in the poll immediately before his resignation. Hat tip to Peter Tucker.

• A poll by new kids on the block Essential Research shows Labor with a two-party lead of 59-41. The AAP report says this means Labor has “dropped one point”, but I think they might have missed the poll published on June 2 which had the score at 56-44.

• Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has published results from its Queensland Galaxy survey (its state-level findings are discussed here) on Liberal federal leadership preference, showing Peter Costello leading Malcolm Turnbull and Brendan Nelson with 30 per cent, 23 per cent and 14 per cent respectively. Respondents were also quizzed on petrol, maternity leave and the budget, though not (federal) voting intention.

• Ian McAllister of Australian National University and Juliet Clark of Deakin University have produced a report entitled Trends in Australian Political Opinion: Results from the Australian Election Study, 1987-2007, updating an earlier effort from before last year’s election. Hats off to News Limited for reporting the story thus. I haven’t read it yet, but these graphs from Crikey were absorbing enough that I’ve decided to pinch them:

• The Redistribution Committee for the Northern Territory has recommended no change to the boundaries of Solomon and Lingiari. Opponents of the status quo have until July 18 to register their displeasure. That is also the projected date for publication of proposed new boundaries for Western Australia (UPDATE: the date has been put back to August 1), with Tasmania to follow on August 22.

• Four days to go until the Gippsland by-election, on which discussion is invited here. Also on Saturday is a Victorian state by-election for Kororoit, vacated by one-time Police Minister Andre Haermeyer, where prominent charity worker and Phil Cleary ally Les Twentyman is taking the challenge up to Labor candidate Marlene Kairouz. More on this shortly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

220 comments on “Bits and pieces”

  1. Sooo, how many are game for the U.S. threads over the winter recess? And how will The Piping Shrike’s analysis of what’s happening in the LNP play out?

  2. I’m not sure how many got passed or shoved into committee review…actually, that’d be a good line to run apropos the attack on Rudd of wanting to set up process/committees to review stuff. They certainly sent enough stuff off for review to be annoying. The removal of inequities for same sex couples being one, on the basis you should include spinster sisters living together. Good grief. The Alcopops one as well, I think. I’m so looking forward to the appearance of the esteemed Shadow Minister for teh Environment on Q&A.

  3. Crikey doesnt see Nelson lasting the winter break AND it seems that they think that lord lunchalot will be leaving parliament at last, looks like the break may not be boring after all.

    Dear Sole Subscriber,

    As we come to the end of the last week in Parliament before the winter recess, we farewell what was once a bold experiment in Australian politics, an attempted fusion of Left and Right, an effort to join the heart and the head in a political package that would reflect the best traditions of Australian politics. The experiment ultimately proved a failure, undone by an inability to find a path between conservatism and liberalism, but not before it provided some great copy and some hilarity at its foibles and emotionalism.

    Yes, it’s time to farewell Brendan Nelson.

    Today, all things being equal, will be Brendan’s last effort in the Leader’s chair. It’s been a wild ride, but he has left his mark on Australian politics, and we pray that, once Malcolm Turnbull assumes his place, he remains on the Coalition frontbench, from where we can enjoy his fury and deep anguish at the many outrages of the Rudd Government.

    Oh, and the Democrats are finishing up, too, and probably Alexander Downer. And a bunch of others senators. But the one we’ll miss most is the one, the only, Emo Man.

  4. Judy, I feel your pain.
    Emo Men are equal too. They have to cope with grocery prices, rising interest rates whilst trying to fill up their ute and knocking back a Bourbon and coke. Why, I met an Emo Man at the petrol station last week, who was trying to decide whether he should fill up his ute, buy a rump steak or a couple of Bacardi Breezers.
    And Emo Men across Australia are making decisions like this every day.
    I challenge Mr Rudd to sit in a gutter with an Emo Man at 3 am in the morning and tell him that his Bacardi Breezers are less important than visiting Cate Blanchett’s baby.

  5. 204 Just Me.

    After yesterdays Katherine replacement for Fay Miller, I hear the CLP announced the preselection of another candidate today this time for Brennan.

    Must have been inspiring cause there has been no media whatsoever on him.

  6. I just finished watching Q&A!
    Bill Shorten is damn impressive, future Prime Ministerial material, he certainly should get promoted to the ministry when Rudd has a reshuffle!
    I didn’t mind Greg Hunt too much either tonight!
    Tim Blair however I can do without!

  7. dartboard

    Yeah, the CLP are about as inspiring as the federal Coalition. 😉

    What do you think the seat spread will be after the next election?

    The CLP may regain a seat or two outside of the so called Berrimah line, but I can’t see any big shift in the political balance.

    There simply is not any serious problems for the government, the economy is going very well, there are no scandals… The council amalgamation issue was not handled well, but it has settled down and is not a major vote changer. Crime is on the agenda (it is about all the CLP has to run on), but again I can’t see it producing a CLP government. Clare Martin staying on as leader could have been a major problem, but that has been resolved with the remarkably smooth transition to Paul Henderson, (and credit to Martin for going quietly, it could have been bloody).

    Henderson comes across very well. Somebody I know who gave frequent technical advice to him until recently, said he is smart and sensible, takes on board advice, and takes a fairly conventional political and economic line, so will not upset many people.

    There is no meat for the CLP to dig its campaign teeth into, and I don’t just hear any serious political talk or grumbling about the place, let alone talk of change. The previously oft invoked CLP bogeyman of untried ALP government in the NT has been vanquished, it turns out they can do the job just as well as the CLP. Surprise, surprise.

    I think the truth in the NT is that if the economy is doing well, then generally speaking most voters couldn’t care less who governs.

  8. Progressive, i’ve never seen Shorten at up close before and like you i was impressed, he took it all in his stride with a bit of wry sense of humour and didnt try to flub or duck once, Hunt was a bit better, he seemed more relaxed and open, hmm, i wonder if facing the formidable Kerry could have caused his disasterous performance before, if so he’ll have to get over that quick smart, once a pollie seems a dill it’s awfully hard to dispell that impression–Esmeralda never will be able to undo the persona many of us cant stand.

  9. It’s the long winter break and I think I had better go out for a spell as well. This blog is getting to addictive lol.

    I will go out on this – yes Bill Shorten is a serious act and could be capable of leading the Labor Party in future. But so could Julia Gillard, Wayne Swan, Lindsay Tanner and even Chris Bowen. There is so much talent in the labor side.

    The Liberal Party have got ———————————well the Liberal Party have got —————————aaaaaaahhhhhhhaaahhhaahhaahhaahhahahah.

  10. I know this might seem inconsequential to a lot of people but the following link just really makes me sad about politics in general:
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23927870-421,00.html

    I find it really sad that Malcolm Turnbull would seek to rubbish a person for doing something as decent and well needed as looking after the Northern Hairy-nosed Wombat… one of the world’s most endangered animals, recently listed at #2 on the critically endangered list, behind the Yangtze River Dolphin.

    Mr Turnbull should be hanging his head in shame at the fact that in his time as Minister for the Environment and Water Resources he did NOTHING to aide the cause of the Northern Hairy-nosed Wombat. It is an animal that desparately needs all the assistance it can get and is facing incredible odds.

    I’m not a letter writer usually but am seriously considering writing to the Shadow Treasurer to explain to him the disgust his comments have made to me.

    For everyone else out there… please do yourself a favour and spend a bit of time researching the Northern Hairy-nosed Wombat. Not many people know of it and it’s very sad to learn of its plight.

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