Bits and pieces

Seems Morgan have taken the week off, not counting its release of qualitative findings from federal polling conducted from June 4 to 9, leaving the following collection to stand on its own:

• The Launceston Examiner has published findings from an EMRS poll showing new Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett leading Liberal leader Will Hodgman 46 per cent to 32 per cent as preferred premier, whereas Paul Lennon trailed 32 per cent to 17 per cent in the poll immediately before his resignation. Hat tip to Peter Tucker.

• A poll by new kids on the block Essential Research shows Labor with a two-party lead of 59-41. The AAP report says this means Labor has “dropped one point”, but I think they might have missed the poll published on June 2 which had the score at 56-44.

• Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has published results from its Queensland Galaxy survey (its state-level findings are discussed here) on Liberal federal leadership preference, showing Peter Costello leading Malcolm Turnbull and Brendan Nelson with 30 per cent, 23 per cent and 14 per cent respectively. Respondents were also quizzed on petrol, maternity leave and the budget, though not (federal) voting intention.

• Ian McAllister of Australian National University and Juliet Clark of Deakin University have produced a report entitled Trends in Australian Political Opinion: Results from the Australian Election Study, 1987-2007, updating an earlier effort from before last year’s election. Hats off to News Limited for reporting the story thus. I haven’t read it yet, but these graphs from Crikey were absorbing enough that I’ve decided to pinch them:

• The Redistribution Committee for the Northern Territory has recommended no change to the boundaries of Solomon and Lingiari. Opponents of the status quo have until July 18 to register their displeasure. That is also the projected date for publication of proposed new boundaries for Western Australia (UPDATE: the date has been put back to August 1), with Tasmania to follow on August 22.

• Four days to go until the Gippsland by-election, on which discussion is invited here. Also on Saturday is a Victorian state by-election for Kororoit, vacated by one-time Police Minister Andre Haermeyer, where prominent charity worker and Phil Cleary ally Les Twentyman is taking the challenge up to Labor candidate Marlene Kairouz. More on this shortly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

220 comments on “Bits and pieces”

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  1. If they had combined that question on Bob Brown and sex, it would have got a better run. When will academics learn about marketing and asking the right question?

  2. Both the Northern Territory local distribution and federal distribution are out of the way.

    The question is:

    Will the NT Chief Minister call an election for September/October or not?

  3. dartboard

    What do you think is significant about September/October?

    (For those not up to speed with the all important NT political scene, the NT has 4 year terms, and the election is due in June next year.)

  4. I find it interesting that in the second graph, the Liberals are considered more to the right than the Greens are to the left. Not disputing that finding. But it brings to mind a dismissive line I have heard from some Liberals in recent years: referring to the “extreme Greens”.

    Clearly a gimmicky sort-of-rhyming slight aimed at the attention of a low-brow Liberal audience. It’s also the pot calling the kettle black, quite brazenly.

  5. The Cheif Minister is being pressured to acheive his own mandate after rolling the incumbent following the Federal Election.

    The previous CM and deputy are cluttering the back benches and not giving a good account of themselves, having already had new candidates for their seats announced for the next election.

    A third senior member announced his retirement on the weekend, previously the Local Govt Minister, who was pressured into delaying Local Government reforms and amalgamations which are up for elections later his year.

    One of the two Independents gave her “farewell” speach this past week.

    Its bread and circuses time in Darwin (V8’s, Darwin Cup, Convention Centre opening, Show Circuit, advertising blitz).

    The opposition has pre-selected half its candidates so far with the other half in the next two weeks or so.

    The Public Service has been given some operating deadlines.

    and that all bespokes that the pump is being primed.

  6. In the Coalition partyroom, Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson told colleagues that climate change policy had to be handled carefully, because there was the potential for enormous damage to the economy and environment.

    Deputy Opposition leader Julie Bishop used the meeting to give a critique of Mr Rudd’s first seven months in office.

    She said it was clear he had an undisciplined and chaotic mind and that despite tough talk on many subjects there was often little action.

    So Mesmerelda has been reading the Australian, funny thing is she said on Lateline last night “do not believe everything on the Australian’s front page”. 🙂

  7. ruawake 9 – You are right about QT today. The oppposition was a puerile rabble and the government didn’t raise a sweat wiping the floor with them.

    Bordering on embarassing!

  8. What an unusual poll was the June 4-9 Morgan qualitative poll. The only questions asked invite negative comments, and that’s about all they got. While the responses include interesting and important information for both parties, why not ask separate questions that invite a positive response, such as ‘What do you LIKE about the Labor Government/Kevin Rudd/the Opposition/Brendan Nelson?

    Why did Morgan not separate the responses of Labor voters from those of the Coalition? This would have given readers higher fidelity information. If most of the adverse comments were being made by those who support the other party/leader, little of use could be derived from them as they would be the very comments one would expect from those preferring another party/leader. In contrast, adverse comments about a party/leader coming from supporters would be of significance.

    While Gary’s comments do not always accurately reflect the data set, I guess we should all be relieved that he has finally proclaimed ‘honeymoon over’. We can now put honeymoons aside until the next election.

  9. I was looking at the some odds on betfair and noted they are running a book on the next liberal leader. Its not generating that much excitement, the total book size so far is about $600. Compare that to the President of the US book which has turnover approaching $1mil from the same group of punters.

    Still $600 seem high to me 🙂

  10. Sorry, had to dig deeper and follow the money trail on the betting for the next leader of the opposition. The following sums have been forked out

    Turnbull – $574 (mostly in one bet)
    Brenda – $11 (but he has to make to the end of the year)
    Tip – $13 (following a surge of interest since he’s not found a job)
    Tony Abbott – $0 (c’mon someone put a dollar on the man)
    Shrek – $0 (hey – that’s unfair – he’s a friendly guy)
    Julie Bishop – $0 (The Basilisk is a no show so far – too scary)

  11. BK

    National win with a reduced majority – most probable.
    Labor win with a tiny majority – possible but unlikely
    Liberal win – impossible.

    So realistically there are two options. Truss was talking about Labor’s 18% margin on Insiders as if Labor is sure to win, of course its bollocks but he was positioning himself to spin my first scenario as a great result for the Nats.

    If Labor by some freak of preferences manage to win, then Truss will say but they should have won by much more – see we are eating into Labor’s 18% margin.

    If Labor do win then I would expect mass self-immolations from the Libs. 🙂

  12. Graph 7 seems weird… is it saying that people thought that Bob Hawke, Kim Beazley and Kevin Rudd are more right-wing than John Howard? Or is it Paul Keating who is the rightest? Not too sure about that one…

  13. ruawake 17 – I do agree with your comments on the possible outcomes. It is a great results for the Nats if there are ANY members in parliament. They have been on a downward trajectory for quite some time.
    On this subject Lindsay Tanner gave Truss a good touch up in QT yesterday when the gallery was packed with rowdy wheat farmers. He said that when he was 10 years old he handed out how-to-vote cards for the Country Party and then went on to compare them with the parlous Nationals. Hilarious!

  14. Andos @18

    I thought that at first too – but its actually a measurement (from 0-10) of how good people perceive the various leaders, not left/right.

    interesting to see the nationals perceived as more left than the liberals – perhaps ‘agrarian socialists’ isn’t too far from the mark afterall! 🙂

  15. BK and Ruawake: what about the prospects for the Nats in WA… will there be a resurgence despite ‘one vote, one value’?

  16. dartboard @ 8

    Yep, that all adds up, though it’s not proof of course.

    One small quibble. IIRC, Clare Martin wasn’t rolled, she resigned. There was no challenge, at least no formal, public one. She may well have decided to go quietly after being given the political facts by party seniors behind closed doors.

  17. My reading is that Labor has 4 Federal members from WA. The Liberals have 11. The Nats have zero – zilch – not one.

    Checked the Senate – nope not one elected last election. Checked the previous election nope none. 🙂

    If you are talking about State Politics – I do not have a clue.

  18. The WA state Nats, under the Leadership of child politician Brendan? Grills have the remote prospect of picking up a seat or two at the expense of the Libs, courtesy of the brilliant leadership and inspiring statemanship of Troy Buswell.

    But the independents have a greater possibility of gaining seats, also at the expense of the Libs, particularly a certain Mr. Omodei.

  19. It is good to see that the Federal Police are going after the big criminals- such as Belinda Neal, pity about those drug barrons, they are not that big… What a Joke, one minute not enough resources to catch the big criminals and next minute we go after the trivial crims…

  20. Not only that marky, get involved in underworld killings. Kill people in cold blood and in front of children so they can learn to copy and hate when they grow up.

    You will become famous. You will make it on TodayTonight, ACA and radio.

  21. Spot on,GG at #26, a straight to the point factual analysis.

    And haven’t the Lunatic Tories gone feral. Anne of WA almost ran out of capital letters!

  22. MM and good to see channel nine paying witnesses in a police investigation. Hope Belinda Neal takes them to the media watchdog for one sided reporting and sues them.

  23. GG are you in Melbourne? I have seen all the episodes of Underbelly and mate it is fair dinkum sickening.

    The only thing more sickening is the fact that these animals and their associates are being glorified on TV and radio.

    They deserve capital punishment!

  24. Bishop is trying to raise her profile since Turnbull’s stakes are falling and there is no one else to turn to. But she is a lightweight and has her own personal albatross which she holds close, WorkChoices. That will always kill her off – especially since the released data showed that it lost workers up to $100 a week.

    The Liberal party has been slagging off at Rudd and Labor since before the election. You cant call it argument, debate or criticism as that involves some logical and sensible basis, it is simply ‘slagging off’, like a group of petulant teenagers.

    AND since the election it has become more thinly veiled and a more personal slagging. Bishop’s claim that Rudd has a ‘chaotic mind’ is desperate name calling exactly like a year old girl name calling at school.

    The MSM have also followed the same path, becoming more desperate and shrill in their slagging off at Rudd and Labor.

    However as far as politicians are concerned I think the public are used to and mostly ignore the attack of one party on another, it is expected and has happened non stop for a 100 years.

    The Liberals in their name calling are perpetuating the contrast that existed before the election. Rudd and Labor avoided the negative side of politics for most of the time and have done so since except when they have some logical point to put. People I believe do not respond to the negative unless it agrees with an already held negative sentiment, otherwise it is annoying.

  25. “undisciplined and chaotic mind” (Bishop)
    Just the sort of language I run in to on a building site, or down the pub, or in a cycling bunch…NOT!

    “On the outside, Kevin Rudd likes the government to appear like Hawke but on the inside it is operating like Whitlam” (Nelson)
    Ahh – appealing to the sub-sub-sub set of voters who can remember both of them and voted for one but not the other – brilliant!

    Underbelly – there were a lot of cops in Melbourne who believed the underworld should have been left to clean themselves up, and shouldn’t have had a single cent spent on doing it for them – better placed resources and all that. They did, I believe, manage to knock 1 ‘innocent’ off though.

  26. onimod, I can understand the cops taking that attitude, but it was a wimpish way out, possibly because they lacked the guts or the power. Killings like that, out in the open, in public – nop, capital punishment!

    And the fact they and their associates are being glorified on TV and radio is sick!

  27. Hmm, so Fundies First support Binge Drinkers ?

    [THE Federal Government’s alcopop tax hike is on shaky ground, as Family First considers dumping its support, and Senator-elect Nick Xenophon signals there’ll need to be changes to win his support.

    The Labor-dominated Senate inquiry into ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages today released recommendations supporting the 70 per cent alcopop tax hike, which came into effect on April 27 this year via regulation.

    The Government must have supporting legislation passed by April next year for the $3.1 billion tax hike to stand.

    It will need to secure the support of all five Greens senators, Family First’s Steve Fielding and incoming senator Nick Xenophon.

    Senator Fielding said he was reconsidering his support for the alcopop tax increase.

    “Given today’s Senate report raises serious concerns about the substitution to other alcohol products and the lack of real commitment to other non-tax measures to create a culture of responsible drinking, Family First is considering dumping support for the alcopops tax,” he said.

    Mr Xenophon said that while there was universal enthusiasm to tackle binge drinking, the Government was in for some “24-7” negotiations to earn his support the alcopops tax.

    “I expect there will be a lot of late night negotiations if this is going to get up,” he said.

    “Whatever the outcome is of this legislation I expect that there will have to be further changes down the track.” ],21598,23917194-5005361,00.html

  28. #43 Centre

    Killings like that, out in the open, in public – nop, capital punishment!

    You’re joking – you advocate the death penatly?

  29. 43 Centre
    I think understand your points.
    The cops complaint was that there were plenty of innocent people’s murders that didn’t get half the resources, while generally the underworld doesn’t cross in to the mainstream that often. The underworld thing has been going on in Melbourne for a lot longer than the current fad.
    The desire to see yourself on television (the modern day cult of celebrity) does indeed mystify me though.

    Paying the price of her family friend and associates? That might be innocent of the actual crime, but she hardly lived an innocent life. Playing with fire and all that…
    No, I’m not watching, so I could be completely uninformed.

  30. #48 Cente – no I haven’t seen the tv series underbelly – as a Melbournian I have read much about it – whatsoever I would never, ever agree with the death penalty – you want to be judge and juror so be it

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