Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
Presidential election minus 19 weeks
Introducing another round of comments action in the endless US presidential election campaign. Participants are encouraged to try their luck in the IRC room:
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
2,113 comments on “Presidential election minus 19 weeks”
Not only Hamas have stopped dancing in the street. Now the American Muslims are now under the bus.
* Mr. Ellison believed that Mr. Obama’s message of unity resonated deeply with American Muslims. He volunteered to speak on Mr. Obama’s behalf at a mosque in Cedar Rapids, one of the nation’s oldest Muslim enclaves. But before the rally could take place, aides to Mr. Obama asked Mr. Ellison to cancel the trip because it might stir controversy. Another aide appeared at Mr. Ellison’s Washington office to explain. “I will never forget the quote,” Mr. Ellison said, leaning forward in his chair as he recalled the aide’s words. “He said, ‘We have a very tightly wrapped message.’ ”
* While the senator has visited churches and synagogues, he has yet to appear at a single mosque. Muslim and Arab-American organizations have tried repeatedly to arrange meetings with Mr. Obama, but officials with those groups say their invitations — unlike those of their Jewish and Christian counterparts — have been ignored. Last week, two Muslim women wearing head scarves were barred by campaign volunteers from appearing behind Mr. Obama at a rally in Detroit.
It looks like the French fries is off the menu again. Pres “My wife is so sexy” Sarkozy of France told the Israel that it must help to establish a Palestinian State with Jerusalem as its capital. Whereas Pres “My wife is so clever” Obama said Jerusalem will never divided. So back to Freedom Fries.
Chris B: dont forget to take your medicine everyday. we dont want to see you going into a convulsion again. it wasn’t pretty.
There have been 4 big stumbles so far: (excluding Hillary R.I.P, who made stumbling an artform).
1. Michelle Obama- never been proud
2. Barry – Bitter
3. McCain – his abysmal speech on Obama victory night.
and now
4. McCain”s No.1 representative Charlie Black – another terror attack is great for us.
This will play BIG right up to the election. Doesn’t matter what McCain denounces. If he doesn’t fire him he is crazy.
Maybe HarryH McCain is actually loyal to his staff unlike the hopemaster to his spiritual guide the very Reverend Jeremiah Wright.
ESJ
One book each for FL and VA/NC.
Das Kapital is OK. Looks a bit boring though. Don’t know much about Marx although I just got a book “Worldly Philosophers” about economic philosophy including Marx, Smith, Keynes etc. I still need another one if Obi loses both.
Finns has me reading The Perfumed Garden out loud in the unlikely event Obi loses.
I’ll give you four to choose from; The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle by Murakami, The War at the end of the World by Vargas LLosa, Selfish Gene by Dawkins and Machiavelli in Hell by de Grazia.
FINNS
did you indicate Obama had a poor family upbringing
Ron,
“Poor” as in money? would have to say yes.
“Poor” as in quality? would describe it as very unsettled and confusing. As to “who am I?” kind of confusing. Especially the Indonesia episode. Everything was strange for him, country, people, culture, foods etc. He was 6-11 then.
Methinks Michelle and Pastor gave him the stability and sense of belonging he needed.
GG
regarding that sponsoring conversation earlier , well DailyKos , fish & chips credibility there Also , Sponsoring or co sponsoring for some Poiitcans is an artform , it means their name gets on the Bill even if they did nothing So whether the republicans have a story or a beatup depends on the knowledge of peoples in the committees and their version you are aware of Obama”s Senate record no doubt , till near end last year sponsored 129 Bills (how much work he did I haven’t yet checked) , and 2 got passed into Law Obama the non lobbyists , one of them i think was Lobbyists had to stand whilst eating (penance presume)
Ah, the politics of fear. I will show you fear in a handful of dust. It’s time that dust was swept into the grave with the cremated corpse of the Bush Administration.
From the ages of 2 – 6, Senator Obama was raised by his wealthy, grandparents. From the ages of 6 – 10, Senator Obama was raised by his mother and his step-father who was an Oil Executive in Indonesia; from the age of 10 until his early adulthood, Senator Obama was living again with his wealthy grandparents, one of which was the Vice President of the Bank of Hawaii. Senator Obama has attended prep schools like Occidental College, paid for by HIS FAMILY. He then went on to Harvard, the State Senate of Illinois, and the U.S. Senate.
I note Tim Pawlenty has overtaken Mitt Romney as favourite to be McCain’s running mate. After my hiccup with Warner, who dropped out the day after I picked him for the Dems, the fates may yet smile on me.
Hello Lovelies-
haven’t read the posts since I left,but see that the the same players are still in the game. Not to mention Obama and McCain.
Good to see there is nothing new under the sun.
Finns, Ron and GG
Do I have to do your job for you!!? Lift your game boys!! From Matty Drudge.
Jen and jv- LOOK AWAY. DO NOT READ THIS POST. YOU WILL FEEL SICK.
Obama recently met in Chicago with religious leaders, including conservative evangelicals. His campaign also plans thousands of “American Values House Parties,” where participants discuss Obama and religion, as well as a presence on Christian radio and blogs.
Ron, i dont know whether his grandfather was wealthy or not. but his Indo Stepfather certainly was not. He was working for the Indo Army TNI. Later he did join the oil company.
thanks , was not sure of source
Diogenes ,
we release this stuff at strategic moments and you barge in and spoil the party
with advance releases Uyou’ve already tried to be an ‘elitist’ 9failed0 and suport 2 adelaide teams Why not ask Mr obama & Mccain why the US are not renditioning Mugabe right now , tell him thee are huge oil reserves there , this spin on allowing Mugabe to stay is sick
Yes. They’re off on all the topics that will swing this election. Democrats are in so much trouble its a wonder anyone will turn up for them at this election.
Come back Catrina. We miss you.
Ok-
so I did a little trawl back.
Catrina and Andrew appear to have departed the arena- shame I say..
still it appears that barrell bottom trawling is still the name of the game.
Diogenes –
have you sent your wine to Ferny yet? -I am remiss in my duty, having been at the coast for 5 days with no post packs, and anyway somehow the wine eveporated agin in 4 degree heat. Obviously the Cooler was tropical.
I must pose the question: if PB’ers are so vitriolic in the slow times, WTF is going on in the US?
Cannibalism I presume.
chris b @ 118
hear,hear!
Diogenes-
OMG! (oops)
Not the “Focus on The Family” program???!!!
He is just like, so totally f*cked, and that.
Thank God for God, who will save us from heathens and pagens.
And black POTUS’s.
Ron
Here’s a good article on the US politics take on Zimbabwe from the WSJ. Do we support a Bush-style intervention or the Clinton hands-off see-no-evil liberal approach. It’s a bloody hard decision.
I don’t believe there has been a reported case of political cannibalism in the US yet. Several murders but no cannibalism.
jen, I was on the Amazon site, having just bought a book on ante bellum US. They have blogs on various historical subjects, and I was amazed by the loathing and contempt shown for the Shrub even by people who thought Barry Goldwater would have been a fine POTUS.
But I suppose this was a self selecting site for elitists, ie you have to be able to read and write!
Diogenes-
beg to differ.
I think Hillary did a pretty good imitation of one who eats their own for the sake of their own survival.
So… what happened to Catrina and Andrew?
I would like to think that none of the veteran PBers actaullay drummed a new kid out of town. Poor form IMHO.
Gippslander –
you may not like what I am going to say, but there cannot be too much contempt, ridicule and disgust diercted at the very worst example of Democaracy gone wrong.
Bush should be charged and locked up for unimaginable numbers of war crimes.
And I can read and write – just not type.
123 Gippslander Good to see you back. Did I tell you my aunty owned Birrilda at Metung. Next door to the serviced flats. Near the jetty where you fill up for fuel.
124 Jen Andrew was sticking up for Catrina. Catrina was warned for being nasty to one of the Three Amigos.
She left after being warned by William.
My objection is that the siamese triplets get away with murder. Unlike others.
I think that was Catrinas feeling too.
Jen, it was jolly poor form! After 2000 unmoderated posts, (on a thread actually advertised to be a slug fest) William decided to do an impersonation of God the Father and beat up on Catrina, who’d been mocking Ron’s innovative grammar. It was puerile stuff, no doubt, but hardly in the same league with the poisonous exchanges between certain other posters! If I were Catrina I would feel unfairly singled out. I just hope that she doesn’t spit the dummy permanently, depriving the blog of some of its most interesting views.
131 Gippslander. Couldn’t agree more.
Come back Catrina. We love you.
Chris B; Obviously you have not taken your medicine for today. your convulsion is showing again. It’s no good for your health.
hey Jen, I wasn’t disagreeing with your view of Bush! The reference to elitists was Ironic, and refered to the Amazon bloggers, with whom I agree, being a member of the unelected elite myself.
Does anyone know about the polls Progressive mentioned at 9 and 10?
99 Greeensborough Growler To late he’s already said it. It can be used against the Repugs adnausium.
One awaits William’s comments on the childish post 134
See Jen. I rest my case.
No sign of William.
[My objection is that the siamese triplets get away with murder. Unlike others.] – so i assume that everyone here at PB agrees this statement is of the highest quality.
Barack Obama has now taken a four-point lead over John McCain in Pennsylvania 46% to 42%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of state voters.
Five percent of voters favor an unspecified third-party candidate, and 8% remain undecided.
In last month’s survey, Obama had a narrow 45% to 43% lead over his Republican rival, but this was before Hillary Rodham Clinton dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Two months ago, McCain held a statistically insignificant lead.
The Republicans’ already imperiled efforts to hold onto their seat in New York’s 13th Congressional District took a tragic turn Sunday with the sudden death of Frank Powers, the former Wall Street executive endorsed by the local GOP after a personal scandal forced Republican Rep. Vito J. Fossella last month to drop his bid for re-election. And though GOP officials maintained a traditional reticence Monday in the immediate aftermath of Powers’ passing, the party will have little time to lose in picking a new candidate before the state’s July 10 filing deadline.
It has been nearly two years since six-term Republican Mark Foley resigned as representative of Florida’s 16th District, after revelations that he had sent s*xually explicit online messages to House pages. Three Republicans, all potentially strong general election candidates in the usually Republican-leaning south Florida district, have entered the Aug. 26 primary for the nomination to challenge freshman Democrat Tim Mahoney — who, GOP partisans argue, won the seat in 2006 only because of Foley’s downfall.
Catrina had a shot at me , i did not respond at all , then Themoderator said Catriana grow up , then Catrina caught by surprise decided to leave Thats what happened The moderator did not ban Catrina or threaten her
Andrew on the other hand attacked the moderator personally & complained of being called a parrot etc The moderator responded & said something like poo poo back Andrew waited and hour or so , obviuosly stewing at the ‘put down ‘ and decided to leave himself Again the modrerator gave Andrew neither a warning or a threat
Also andrews intervention on 2 occasions if anything was detrimental to an earlier genuine request by EC for Catrina to come back
So the moderator did a fine job , Andrew firstly acted like a spoilt child and then compounded it by acting selfishly & inhibiting EC , and as for Catrina she reacted , unlike Andrew , on human emotion at the time and perhaps too hastilly , and as for me well i’m the cause
Obama is ahead 46-30 percent over McCain in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in the survey of 807 people conducted by Zogby International. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
”Obama’s 16-point lead in South Florida could springboard him to make it a competitive race statewide,” said pollster John Zogby. “I really think Florida is in play.”
Not only Hamas have stopped dancing in the street. Now the American Muslims are now under the bus.
* Mr. Ellison believed that Mr. Obama’s message of unity resonated deeply with American Muslims. He volunteered to speak on Mr. Obama’s behalf at a mosque in Cedar Rapids, one of the nation’s oldest Muslim enclaves. But before the rally could take place, aides to Mr. Obama asked Mr. Ellison to cancel the trip because it might stir controversy. Another aide appeared at Mr. Ellison’s Washington office to explain. “I will never forget the quote,” Mr. Ellison said, leaning forward in his chair as he recalled the aide’s words. “He said, ‘We have a very tightly wrapped message.’ ”
* While the senator has visited churches and synagogues, he has yet to appear at a single mosque. Muslim and Arab-American organizations have tried repeatedly to arrange meetings with Mr. Obama, but officials with those groups say their invitations — unlike those of their Jewish and Christian counterparts — have been ignored. Last week, two Muslim women wearing head scarves were barred by campaign volunteers from appearing behind Mr. Obama at a rally in Detroit.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/24/us/politics/24muslim.html?hp
It looks like the French fries is off the menu again. Pres “My wife is so sexy” Sarkozy of France told the Israel that it must help to establish a Palestinian State with Jerusalem as its capital. Whereas Pres “My wife is so clever” Obama said Jerusalem will never divided. So back to Freedom Fries.
Chris B: dont forget to take your medicine everyday. we dont want to see you going into a convulsion again. it wasn’t pretty.
There have been 4 big stumbles so far: (excluding Hillary R.I.P, who made stumbling an artform).
1. Michelle Obama- never been proud
2. Barry – Bitter
3. McCain – his abysmal speech on Obama victory night.
and now
4. McCain”s No.1 representative Charlie Black – another terror attack is great for us.
This will play BIG right up to the election. Doesn’t matter what McCain denounces. If he doesn’t fire him he is crazy.
Maybe HarryH McCain is actually loyal to his staff unlike the hopemaster to his spiritual guide the very Reverend Jeremiah Wright.
ESJ
One book each for FL and VA/NC.
Das Kapital is OK. Looks a bit boring though. Don’t know much about Marx although I just got a book “Worldly Philosophers” about economic philosophy including Marx, Smith, Keynes etc. I still need another one if Obi loses both.
Finns has me reading The Perfumed Garden out loud in the unlikely event Obi loses.
I’ll give you four to choose from; The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle by Murakami, The War at the end of the World by Vargas LLosa, Selfish Gene by Dawkins and Machiavelli in Hell by de Grazia.
FINNS
did you indicate Obama had a poor family upbringing
Ron,
“Poor” as in money? would have to say yes.
“Poor” as in quality? would describe it as very unsettled and confusing. As to “who am I?” kind of confusing. Especially the Indonesia episode. Everything was strange for him, country, people, culture, foods etc. He was 6-11 then.
Methinks Michelle and Pastor gave him the stability and sense of belonging he needed.
GG
regarding that sponsoring conversation earlier , well DailyKos , fish & chips credibility there Also , Sponsoring or co sponsoring for some Poiitcans is an artform , it means their name gets on the Bill even if they did nothing So whether the republicans have a story or a beatup depends on the knowledge of peoples in the committees and their version you are aware of Obama”s Senate record no doubt , till near end last year sponsored 129 Bills (how much work he did I haven’t yet checked) , and 2 got passed into Law Obama the non lobbyists , one of them i think was Lobbyists had to stand whilst eating (penance presume)
Ah, the politics of fear. I will show you fear in a handful of dust. It’s time that dust was swept into the grave with the cremated corpse of the Bush Administration.
Richard Clarke: Charlie Black Should Be Fired
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/23/richard-clarke-mccain-sho_n_108812.html
FINNS
This is either the Barbarians history or Obama’s
From the ages of 2 – 6, Senator Obama was raised by his wealthy, grandparents. From the ages of 6 – 10, Senator Obama was raised by his mother and his step-father who was an Oil Executive in Indonesia; from the age of 10 until his early adulthood, Senator Obama was living again with his wealthy grandparents, one of which was the Vice President of the Bank of Hawaii. Senator Obama has attended prep schools like Occidental College, paid for by HIS FAMILY. He then went on to Harvard, the State Senate of Illinois, and the U.S. Senate.
I note Tim Pawlenty has overtaken Mitt Romney as favourite to be McCain’s running mate. After my hiccup with Warner, who dropped out the day after I picked him for the Dems, the fates may yet smile on me.
Hello Lovelies-
haven’t read the posts since I left,but see that the the same players are still in the game. Not to mention Obama and McCain.
Good to see there is nothing new under the sun.
Finns, Ron and GG
Do I have to do your job for you!!? Lift your game boys!! From Matty Drudge.
Jen and jv- LOOK AWAY. DO NOT READ THIS POST. YOU WILL FEEL SICK.
Obama recently met in Chicago with religious leaders, including conservative evangelicals. His campaign also plans thousands of “American Values House Parties,” where participants discuss Obama and religion, as well as a presence on Christian radio and blogs.
Dobson accuses Obama of ‘distorting’ Bible
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gnLulDbwWGYGLiXlDW5hPiNMGMRQD91G51AG0
Good to see there is nothing new under the sun.
well i got a sun tan
Ron, i dont know whether his grandfather was wealthy or not. but his Indo Stepfather certainly was not. He was working for the Indo Army TNI. Later he did join the oil company.
thanks , was not sure of source
Diogenes ,
we release this stuff at strategic moments and you barge in and spoil the party
with advance releases Uyou’ve already tried to be an ‘elitist’ 9failed0 and suport 2 adelaide teams Why not ask Mr obama & Mccain why the US are not renditioning Mugabe right now , tell him thee are huge oil reserves there , this spin on allowing Mugabe to stay is sick
Yes. They’re off on all the topics that will swing this election. Democrats are in so much trouble its a wonder anyone will turn up for them at this election.
Come back Catrina. We miss you.
Ok-
so I did a little trawl back.
Catrina and Andrew appear to have departed the arena- shame I say..
still it appears that barrell bottom trawling is still the name of the game.
Diogenes –
have you sent your wine to Ferny yet? -I am remiss in my duty, having been at the coast for 5 days with no post packs, and anyway somehow the wine eveporated agin in 4 degree heat. Obviously the Cooler was tropical.
I must pose the question: if PB’ers are so vitriolic in the slow times, WTF is going on in the US?
Cannibalism I presume.
chris b @ 118
hear,hear!
Diogenes-
OMG! (oops)
Not the “Focus on The Family” program???!!!
He is just like, so totally f*cked, and that.
Thank God for God, who will save us from heathens and pagens.
And black POTUS’s.
Ron
Here’s a good article on the US politics take on Zimbabwe from the WSJ. Do we support a Bush-style intervention or the Clinton hands-off see-no-evil liberal approach. It’s a bloody hard decision.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121426493088398375.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
jen
I don’t believe there has been a reported case of political cannibalism in the US yet. Several murders but no cannibalism.
jen, I was on the Amazon site, having just bought a book on ante bellum US. They have blogs on various historical subjects, and I was amazed by the loathing and contempt shown for the Shrub even by people who thought Barry Goldwater would have been a fine POTUS.
But I suppose this was a self selecting site for elitists, ie you have to be able to read and write!
Diogenes-
beg to differ.
I think Hillary did a pretty good imitation of one who eats their own for the sake of their own survival.
So… what happened to Catrina and Andrew?
I would like to think that none of the veteran PBers actaullay drummed a new kid out of town. Poor form IMHO.
Gippslander –
you may not like what I am going to say, but there cannot be too much contempt, ridicule and disgust diercted at the very worst example of Democaracy gone wrong.
Bush should be charged and locked up for unimaginable numbers of war crimes.
And I can read and write – just not type.
123 Gippslander Good to see you back. Did I tell you my aunty owned Birrilda at Metung. Next door to the serviced flats. Near the jetty where you fill up for fuel.
124 Jen Andrew was sticking up for Catrina. Catrina was warned for being nasty to one of the Three Amigos.
She left after being warned by William.
My objection is that the siamese triplets get away with murder. Unlike others.
I think that was Catrinas feeling too.
Jen, it was jolly poor form! After 2000 unmoderated posts, (on a thread actually advertised to be a slug fest) William decided to do an impersonation of God the Father and beat up on Catrina, who’d been mocking Ron’s innovative grammar. It was puerile stuff, no doubt, but hardly in the same league with the poisonous exchanges between certain other posters! If I were Catrina I would feel unfairly singled out. I just hope that she doesn’t spit the dummy permanently, depriving the blog of some of its most interesting views.
131 Gippslander. Couldn’t agree more.
Come back Catrina. We love you.
Chris B; Obviously you have not taken your medicine for today. your convulsion is showing again. It’s no good for your health.
hey Jen, I wasn’t disagreeing with your view of Bush! The reference to elitists was Ironic, and refered to the Amazon bloggers, with whom I agree, being a member of the unelected elite myself.
Does anyone know about the polls Progressive mentioned at 9 and 10?
99 Greeensborough Growler To late he’s already said it. It can be used against the Repugs adnausium.
One awaits William’s comments on the childish post 134
See Jen. I rest my case.
No sign of William.
[My objection is that the siamese triplets get away with murder. Unlike others.] – so i assume that everyone here at PB agrees this statement is of the highest quality.
Election 2008: Pennsylvania Presidential Election.
Barack Obama has now taken a four-point lead over John McCain in Pennsylvania 46% to 42%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of state voters.
Five percent of voters favor an unspecified third-party candidate, and 8% remain undecided.
In last month’s survey, Obama had a narrow 45% to 43% lead over his Republican rival, but this was before Hillary Rodham Clinton dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Two months ago, McCain held a statistically insignificant lead.
more….
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2
The Republicans’ already imperiled efforts to hold onto their seat in New York’s 13th Congressional District took a tragic turn Sunday with the sudden death of Frank Powers, the former Wall Street executive endorsed by the local GOP after a personal scandal forced Republican Rep. Vito J. Fossella last month to drop his bid for re-election. And though GOP officials maintained a traditional reticence Monday in the immediate aftermath of Powers’ passing, the party will have little time to lose in picking a new candidate before the state’s July 10 filing deadline.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docid=news-000002903443
It has been nearly two years since six-term Republican Mark Foley resigned as representative of Florida’s 16th District, after revelations that he had sent s*xually explicit online messages to House pages. Three Republicans, all potentially strong general election candidates in the usually Republican-leaning south Florida district, have entered the Aug. 26 primary for the nomination to challenge freshman Democrat Tim Mahoney — who, GOP partisans argue, won the seat in 2006 only because of Foley’s downfall.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docid=news-000002903478
Chris: they are Rasmussen polls!
Have you checked out http://www.electoral-vote.com/?
All your polling info on that site, updated daily!
And, isn’t it funny the personal abuse is coming from those who claim they are being oppressed by the Obama supporters LOL
Correct link: http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Gippslander & Jen
You should go and read what actually happened
Catrina had a shot at me , i did not respond at all , then Themoderator said Catriana grow up , then Catrina caught by surprise decided to leave Thats what happened The moderator did not ban Catrina or threaten her
Andrew on the other hand attacked the moderator personally & complained of being called a parrot etc The moderator responded & said something like poo poo back Andrew waited and hour or so , obviuosly stewing at the ‘put down ‘ and decided to leave himself Again the modrerator gave Andrew neither a warning or a threat
Also andrews intervention on 2 occasions if anything was detrimental to an earlier genuine request by EC for Catrina to come back
So the moderator did a fine job , Andrew firstly acted like a spoilt child and then compounded it by acting selfishly & inhibiting EC , and as for Catrina she reacted , unlike Andrew , on human emotion at the time and perhaps too hastilly , and as for me well i’m the cause
Obama is ahead 46-30 percent over McCain in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in the survey of 807 people conducted by Zogby International. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
”Obama’s 16-point lead in South Florida could springboard him to make it a competitive race statewide,” said pollster John Zogby. “I really think Florida is in play.”
more…
http://www.miamiherald.com/political-currents/story/580781.html
The Votemaster is not working at the moment. Must have missed them previously.
It was down for about 6 hours the other day after being attacked.