Now ACNielsen comes through with a post-budget federal poll, its first since the election. Michelle Grattan details the results thus:
The poll of 1400, taken from Thursday to Saturday, found the budget had gone down well, with two-thirds “satisfied” and 57% thinking it “fair”. This is despite just 31% believing it will make them better off — about the same proportion (30%) who think it will leave them worse off. The Government seems to have chosen an acceptable cut-in point for new welfare means tests, with a majority agreeing those on the $150,000 household income were “wealthy”. Mr Rudd’s approval is 69%, making him the second most popular PM since 1972, only behind Bob Hawke, who was on 75% in late 1984. John Howard’s highest approval rating was 67% in early 2005. Dr Nelson’s approval is 34%, with his disapproval 48%. Kim Beazley, Simon Crean and Alexander Downer all hit lower points as opposition leaders. Labor has substantially improved its position since the election. It is up four points to lead the Coalition 57% to 43% on a two-party basis (remembering of course that ACNielsen also had the result at 57-43 in the last poll it conducted, immediately before the election – PB). Labor has a primary vote of 46%, three points higher than at the November election, to the Coalition’s 38%, four points down.
Just musing….
I thought it was quite sensible, having lost the election, that many former Lib ministers moved to the back benches.
The best way to rebuild, after all, is to get rid of anyone who reminds the voting populace of the old guard. If you can still have them hanging around as a source of advice, then that’s good too.
BUT the only way it’s going to work is if they then have the discipline to BE backbenchers and avoid the limelight.
Instead, we have young Alex popping up on ‘Lateline’ when any sensible program would throw to an ad and Costello calling pressers and then accusing the media of hounding him.
So I wonder where the original sensible advice came from and why the rest of it wasn’t followed?
Or was I being too generous to begin with, and they went to the backbench to punish us all for voting them out, rather than for the long term good of the party?
101 zoom
The ‘source of advice’ left some 12 months before the election – Arthur Sinodinos. Other than him and Johnnie-no-good, no one has had any experience making big decisions for over a decade.
One guy on the back bench has plenty of experience NOT making a decision.
A couple of others have plenty of recent experience with WRONG decisions.
In reality we’ve got a bunch of newbies, and unfortunately there are no accomplished oldies to teach them the right way to do things.
A nice little article from the past for general amusement that illustrated the difference between the former and current ‘top dogs’:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Opinion/A-poisonous-affair-for-all-players/2005/05/06/1115092684631.html
Heh, heh. Alexander just now, on radio. Consulting with his family (and friends, probably not Minchin) about his intentions. For as long as my family wants me?
The curiously long winded headline in today’s OZ under Shanahan’s by line is “Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull Bury The Hatchet”.
Who was the other poor bastard vying for the Liberal leadership? The double whammy to the skull must have been painfull.
Crikey Whitey before have I with you raised this thought . Related be not you to Jabba the Hutt?
Though comely more of eye and of body lithe I doubt not, syntax Hutt you have.
Ashamed be not of the family Hutt.
You sure have, Fulvio. Just before I go to bed.
Now,about this sin tax. What about taking a sentence or paragraph or anything I have typed, correcting it and marks out of ten? If you would be so kind. I challenge you.
And try not to be jealous. You may find that you are within the Hutt.
You have twenty four hours.
Hey Crikey, didn’t mean to offend with my repeated syntax joke, and I thought it would be taken in the spirit of good humour, in which I was sure you did in fact take it, although William, as is his right, thought otherwise.
Apologies to you William and to you Crikey. The last thing I want to do is upset people I usually wholheartedly agree with. There are too many of those I don’t out there!
Possum Comitatus Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Actually it’s any gully with a river running into it.
In Victoria we have the north south pipeline being built to take water from the snowy system ( built by a labor government) and we have desalination plants being put in, these consume power instead of generating it. And those of us that see gullies as dams asking why don’t they just dam a few more rivers ( my answer is, it’s too late now, you have to dam them before the drought).
Another dam, desalination plants, another carbon generating power station. The anti dam crowd have a lot of environmental destruction to answer for.
Sorry that should read, another pipeline.
Charles, the north south pipeline doesn’t take water from the Snowy System.
The desalination plant is intended to do what no dam can do – provide water when there is no rain.
If extra dams had been built they would look exactly the same as all the other dams now – that is, close to empty. More dams may have delayed the imposition of water restrictions but even that’s debatable.
As for environmental destruction – what are you talking about? You seem to think the Snowy scheme was good, which involves a hundred times the number of pipes we’re talking about with the n-s scheme (and anyway the pipe will largely run through farm land) and desalination plants (which I was anti until I did my research) appear to have little impact environmentally.
Dams, on the other hand, permanently alter the water flows of rivers, obstruct fish movement, alter water temperatures and flood large areas of land. There is some evidence locally that they impact on the local climate (we have more fogs and less frosts since the dam was put in forty years ago, and it’s not a big body of water).
Onimod 101
You are so right. When I worked in Canberra EVERYTHING went through the PMC office, even project level decisions ove ra certain amount of $, not just major policy. (And I am talking amount sin the millions, not billions.) The horrifically onerous contracts they make you sign precludes me from being more specific, but suffice to say that many Howard Ministers were little more than figureheads. Their job was to write the press releases and shake hands with the locals after the deal was done, while all the decisions got made in PMC. Line departments could recommend policies, but only PMC, Treasury and Finance had any real decision making power. In my experience that power was split about 60/30/10 in favour of PMC. If PMC were against something, it had zero chance of getting up.
The doctors union desperately trying to protect the wealth of their symbiotic partners, private medical insurance companies.
Seems like it is the most favoured tactic now – get a report made up whilst first setting the paramaters to give the result you want. A lot of it went on before the election.
Expect more desperate and shrill efforts to come – these companies are set to lose the gifted millions from their backpockets.
“But an Access Economics report commissioned by the Australian Medical Association (AMA) found the savings predicted in the Budget from increasing the rebate thresholds will not be achieved, unless 800,000 people drop their private health cover by July.”
Ms Roxon has told ABC radio’s AM program the report appears to be incomplete and confused.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/21/2250968.htm
The private health companies are a supported monopoly like petrol companies and supermarkets and regular insurance companies. They charge what they think will pay, not what the need to provide the service. And with the 30% rebate they probably figure they can gradually increase premiums another 30% since people were used to paying the higher price in the first place.
Not that I have any data that proves this.
Private health insurance subsidies were never a good idea unless you had shares in the insurance company. The ideological obsession the previous government had with private health made no economic sense. Why would we go down the US road on this one? They have the most expensive health care system in the world (13% of GDP!) yet their health outcomes are only about mid-field for OECD countries. And that does not even consider the appalling equity issues – millions unable to afford any treatment, and HMOs dictacting the level of care on non-medical grounds. Comprehensive public systems in northern European countries leave them for dead – they are both cheaper (8 to 9% of GDP) and better for patients. Why do right wingers stick to this mistake?
What’s all this talk about private health premiums going up? They’ve been going up anyway even with the present arrangement. Nothing will change.
This from Kina’s 113 article
“Consumer group CHOICE says the planned changes to the surcharge may force health funds to become more competitive.
CHOICE spokesman Michael Johnston says the changes are fairer to consumers, because they are less likely to be forced to join a health fund.
He also says the funds may now have to make changes to keep customers from leaving.”
This is another reason why private heath funds are crapping themselves and desperately getting all these “doctored” reports made up.
HA!
I just heard the AMA chief claiming the private health insurance premiums will ride by 5%.
HA!
That’s a good result compared to recent years, and indicates next to NO net impact.
What’s that jumping off a cliff? – oh just the AMA’s credibility.
$800M buys a lot of doctored reports.
Nicola Roxon batted this one away with a toothpick.
Has someone called for a Royal Commission yet? Should be able to get a decent report out of that.
Crikey et al:
Pseudo battlers should get a grip (Ross Gittins)
http://business.smh.com.au/pseudo-battlers-should-get-a-grip-20080520-2ghb.html
A nice little article that sums up a lot of blogosphere sentiment at the moment.
The AMA is credible when it talks about medicine. When it talks about economics it is just another lobby group. From doctors I know it does not even represent the views of all doctors – especially some in the public system.
Allbull is still banging on about the ‘Tarago tax’.
Head in the sand stuff.
He just referred to the ‘protectionist tendancies of the new government’
Ouch – the irony hurts.
Press Club address:
I like the way that Allbull assumes that the infrastructure fund will be expended ‘MacBank’ style, and refers to it in the terms of a publically offered fund.
Like that model hasn’t inflated the price of everything it touches…
I’m really hoping that Treasury has a better way than promising to fleece pockets to roll out our infrastructure.
Turnbull hasn’t answered a question yet. This is a poor performance.
Yeah, heard parts. Banging on about how Howard/Costello were brilliant. No attempt to redefine the Fib Party. They will be saddled with Howard for years, losing market share all the time.
Maybe a new conservative party needs to arise to shake off the dead weight of Howard/Costello?
Allbull at the press club.
Overall the speech was negative, that is, full of criticism for the government and the only balancing positives are motherhood statements about the difference between the two parties. Nothing specific on the coalition or his own views on his actual job – shadow treasurer.
Paul Bonjourno – leaked email
Mathew Franklin – drop in preferred treasurer numbers and the flip flops pre-budget
Michelle Grattan – HIH investigation
Mark Kenney (Advertiser) Medicare levy surcharge, indexing in relation to original figures and choice. Plenty of mock outrage here. Quote from Allbull: ‘highly subsidised public health system’ huh?
Karen Middleton – challenge for leadership – the inevitable question and answer
Mark Riley – polling numbers…hostile takeover?
Malcolm Farr – coalition budget doesn’t add up
Laura Tingle – What are the coalition benchmarks for the budget – good question. Rhetoric reply; doesn’t address Laura’s question at all.
consistently implies that the treasurers job is to baby sit
Toolman – 5c fuel excise; not a bad question. More mock political rhetoric.
Steve Lewis – fuel and emissions trading
Maria Hawthorne – teh email again and economic credibility. Allbull comes to life.
Clinton Porteous – teh email again – refuses to answer
missed one
Daniel Street (9)- fuel excise and Allbull’s input in the budget reply. It’s Brendan’s….he’s the leader
Andrew Fraser (CT) – The history of the LP, advice and leadership
Andrew Probyn (WA) – the state politics career advice issue, Julie Bishop & the sniffer.
Bernard Keane (Crikey) – pensioners and Ergas review; political longevity. Pensions not in Ergas review at the moment…bzzzzz wrong answer.
Last question cut off
No major gaffs, but nothing to add to the already fleshed out issues either.
Certainly no policy development going on either. He knows his ideological arguments well, but I find them contradictory. I’ve said my piece on ideology earlier in the thread – it’s a crutch for simpletons who prefer a one size fits all approach as opposed to a targeted solution to a specific problem or system.
I didn’t realise he’s 53. He’s unlikely to see government again in a leadership position IMO.
124
In a sense the Fibs (I’m not sure whether that’s intentional or not Thomarse – but I like it) have lost their ‘yeast’. They forgot to save any from the last brew, and this brew just isn’t going to work.
I don’t see any yeast on the current front bench. Allbull is their best chance when amongst his own and away from the party room, but he’s made too many Costello style mistakes and risen thus far through division rather than inclusion.
There’s a stalemate between the current king makers, and one or all of them needs to go for progress.
Gippsland:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/seat-win-almost-impossible-rudd/2008/05/21/1211182847252.html
Dr Nelson was today campaigning in the seat, won by the Nationals’ Mr McGauran at last year’s election with a reduced margin of 5.9 per cent.
“Gippsland will be an almost impossible seat to win,” Mr Rudd told reporters in Melbourne today.
“It’s going to be a difficult task for us but we need to make sure we provide an option for the local people.
“(But) while recognising it will be one hell of a chance for Labor to win, this is a very difficult seat for us.”
Nonetheless, Mr Rudd said Labor would campaign hard in the seat.
120 Socrates
“The AMA is credible when it talks about medicine.”
Please tell me you didn’t mean that. They have NO IDEA about medicine. The spokeman is usually the President who cannot possibly know about all medical treatments. Most times the AMA comments on something, it represents about 20% of doctors thinking (mainly the dimwit losers who choose to go on AMA councils).
I know it probably looks like Rudd is trying to play down expectations in Gippsland, but I think that is actually an accurate assesment. Being from there originally, and still notionally connected with the place, it’s made up of an ageing population (which, as Possum pointed out, is the diminishing constituancy of the conservatives), combined with farmers, resource sector workers (from the Bass Strait oil rigs) and a contingent of military from an air force base. While they are probably as turned off by the current state of the libs as everyone else, I suspect they will (as they always do) park their vote with the Nationals, who, at least in the media, have managed to steer clear of the libs infighting. To my mind it’s like the disenchanted ALP voters voting green. And anyway, Darren Chester is busy being Miss Everywhere down there (I spotted him twice over the course of one weekend visit).
[Quote from Allbull: ‘highly subsidised public health system’ huh?]
I thought it was 100% subsidised?
God I wish they had asked him what he meant by that. The answer would have been interesting.
One of the architects of Medicare has backed the Federal Government’s increase in the threshold for the surcharge levy.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/21/2251482.htm
David Speers watched a different budget reply speech to me today. He liked it.
David Speers would
nothing to confuse his little mind
plenty of undergraduate level ideology
The Doctors Reform Society usually oppose whatever the AMA says
http://www.drs.org.au/index.html
Did I?
I think you will find that Dr Rosie from the AMA has a “real job” selling medical indemnity insurance.
Anyhoo there are 500-800 thousand people saying thank you Kev and Swannie for letting me ditch the insurance I did not want.
A hint to the young uns, put your money into a cash management fund, if you need elective surgery when you are an old fogey you will be squillions of bucks in front.
No, you didn’t, William. Posts 106 and 107 temporarily disappeared from my computer screen when I refreshed, and I wrongly assumed I had been censored by the mighty one. Then they popped up again after I grovelled my apology!
Zoom
The snowy runs into the Murray, the north south takes from the Murray, I know poetic license. And yes I believe that the snowy was a great scheme. Even today it makes a significant contribution to the stability of our power grid.
The finer details of where we would be today I won’t debate; more dams probable would have meant more water usage ( more economic activity) so the whole thing is circular. I won’t even debate what dams do, that is alter the environment. It’s a fact of life. As an aside, I suspect fish like water, I know it only a suspicion and a couple of phd’s are needed to prove it..
My problem is the conclusion that what comes before the dam is better than what comes after. The world is not a stable never changing eco system that man must never change.
Forty thousand years ago you could walk to Tasmania, ice covered most of Victoria and volcanoes where active in the state.
We are here, we like a reasonable standard of living so the question in my mind is how do we get it without turning the place into a hydrocarbon by product. Hydo power is a clean renewable energy as is wind energy and solar power.
Yes I support dams in any gully that has a river running into it cause the stored fresh water gets there because of the sun not because we burned stuff to generate power so we can desalinate and pump it.
I like fresh water cause it can be used to generate power, used to grow stuff, used to shower dam haters living in the city, used by the fish to swim in, looks nice and can be water skied on.
I don’t hold the view if nature causes a rock slide and creates a dam it is ok but if man runs his dump trucks and does it, it’s a disaster.
Thats all I’m saying.
From the link in Kina’s post @ 131 –
“Private health insurance is not particularly price sensitive.
“People who buy it, buy it because they want that extra cover or they believe in that particular method of getting their health services. Price doesn’t matter a great deal.”
This may be the case for those who believe in private insurance. Of course those forced into buying it by Howie on pain of getting whacked by the ATO will drop out in droves. However, that will have little material affect on the public system because most of them took out the cheapest cover they could and would get slugged a king’s ransom in co-payments if they ever took leave of their senses and actually used the private system.
Crikey, my understanding is that a single parent (ie. your sis in law is separated and is single) and she is working part time (at the ATO for godsake and she should know this) would be fully aware that the education allowance is a tax rebate (not to be confused with the EMA Allowance – the Education Maintenance Allowance) that is paid in installments (and which, by the way, she probably receives and deservedly so).
In essence at the end of the financial year she claims the rebate! As for salary sacrifice I’m confused! Who said no more salary sacrifice? Is it outlawed???
I just hope that the Libs are stupid enough to block the Budget…they’d lose at least a dozen seats in the ensuing double-dissolution election….
Blocking the budget need not trigger a double dissolution, Mathew (indeed, could not trigger one if no trigger existed, as at present).
The Fibs are playing silly buggers talking about blocking legislation in the senate, in six weeks time they will no longer have the numbers.
If the Greens, Feilding and Nick X want to force a DD in the future the Fiberals will cave in and pass any legislation.
The last thing they want is a DD with lower quotas insuring greater representation of minor parties.
We are talking about politicians. 😛
Isn’t there an agreement (legislation?) that is supposed to prevent a re run of 1975?
charles @ 138 –
The snowy runs into the Murray,
If you mean the Snowy River then yes, its water is now mostly diverted into the Murray, but it naturally runs to the ocean at Marlo (south of Orbost) in eastern Victoria.
Hydo power is a clean renewable energy as is wind energy and solar power.
Environmentalists dispute this. Dams can add a lot of CO2 to the atmosphere as the vegetation rots. And there are other impacts, as for example, in the case of the Snowy River which was reduced mostly to a dry stream with a buggered eco system.
Another problem with hydro is that it only works if it rains. The output from the Snowy Scheme has been much reduced in the last couple of years through lack of water, and Tasmania is now often importing electricity from the mainland for the same reason. However, solar could be the saving grace of some plants by generating power to pump water back into the hydro dams during the day to provide baseload at night.
Please ignore the 1975 reference in 144. Brain went off half-cocked ;(
mondial back at 100. Maybe you’re right, though I’d like to see some evidence of a generalisation applying to whole generations, as I fundamentally don’t trust such generalisations. I could be accused of looking at this question from the point of view of a group of people who usually have their antennae tuned for people who skew their behaviour in two different directions, that of under or over responsibility for their actions, and the effects of their actions on others. And we’re particularly attuned for blaming which we regard as immature. One of the myriad things that annoyed the hell out of me, and probably the people with which I would most identify as fellow travellers, is the Howard gov’t’s predilection for blaming everyone but themselves for everything that was clearly a problem, not to mention their clawing to themselves, everything that was a positive. One of the things that gives me some cause for hope is that Rudd says that the buck stops with him, that he won’t try and shift blame, that he will try and address the problem, that he will take responsibility. He may well disappoint, such as, why the hell is he going to the West Indies for the Frank Worrell Cup? Howard you would expect, but Rudd?
Socrates, gotta agree with Diogenes about the AMA knowing stuff about medicine. I know more stuff about medicine than most of the mouthpieces for the AMA and being a spokesperson for the AMA does not require any understanding of health economics. Why, for example, should the cost of most increasingly used technology decrease over time, but not medical technology? Have a look at how the pharmaceutical companies operate, and don’t get taken in by the b.s. peer reviewed gold standard published research either.
MayoFeral Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Environmentalists come up with many nonsense arguments; which unfortunately devalues the band ( in-word I think). The vegetation rots once; but hay any red herring will do.
The stopping of the damming of lake Pedder was a great environmental success wasn’t it, the missing power now coming from brown coal burnt at Loy Yang. One set of pretty views ( I like viewing dams) at the cost of how many tonnes of CO2.
But probable a circular argument, if lake Pedder had been dammed there would now probable be more Tasmanian industry and less human misery. Anyway the DC link would still have been built for the mainland to get access to the hydro power ( reasons explained below).
Rest assured there is no problem generating the night load. In fact one of the systems in the snowy scheme pumps water uphill at night to generated power to assist with peak load during the day. Sort of a big water battery. One of the many problems with coal fired stations is the inability to turn them down; and you don’t need most of them at night. Thats the reason a system needs Hydro power, you can use it as a spinning reserve with the machines brought on and off line as they are needed to take up load variation.
Barcelona Tonight are still banging on about Pensioners.
http://au.todaytonight.yahoo.com/article/3509827/money/adopt-pensioner
148 ??Lake Pedder has been dammed by Electric Eric back in the 1970s. Thinking about the Franklin? People need to get real about saving energy and producing it locally rather than moving it around the country with massive wastage of resources and major environmental damage.