ACNielsen: 57-43

Now ACNielsen comes through with a post-budget federal poll, its first since the election. Michelle Grattan details the results thus:

The poll of 1400, taken from Thursday to Saturday, found the budget had gone down well, with two-thirds “satisfied” and 57% thinking it “fair”. This is despite just 31% believing it will make them better off — about the same proportion (30%) who think it will leave them worse off. The Government seems to have chosen an acceptable cut-in point for new welfare means tests, with a majority agreeing those on the $150,000 household income were “wealthy”. Mr Rudd’s approval is 69%, making him the second most popular PM since 1972, only behind Bob Hawke, who was on 75% in late 1984. John Howard’s highest approval rating was 67% in early 2005. Dr Nelson’s approval is 34%, with his disapproval 48%. Kim Beazley, Simon Crean and Alexander Downer all hit lower points as opposition leaders. Labor has substantially improved its position since the election. It is up four points to lead the Coalition 57% to 43% on a two-party basis (remembering of course that ACNielsen also had the result at 57-43 in the last poll it conducted, immediately before the election – PB). Labor has a primary vote of 46%, three points higher than at the November election, to the Coalition’s 38%, four points down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

258 comments on “ACNielsen: 57-43”

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  1. Lockyer, a seat that the Nationals almost lost at the last election is another seat that the electoral commission has made more marginal in my view. It was the target of the ‘Your Rights at Work’ campaign at the last election and Ian Rickuss could well be a National Party victim of changing demographics as the urban sprawl moves into what was once National Party heartland.

  2. One final point concerning Glass House. Carolyn Male loses Australia Zoo to Caloundra and picks up huge tracts of toryville which will make life very difficult.

    The Commission proposes to alter the boundaries of the existing electorate
    by:
    (a) expanding at its north to include Obi Obi, Eudlo, Flaxton, Hunchy,
    Montville and Palmwoods from the existing electorate of Nicklin;
    (b) expanding at its west to include the localities of Woodford, Mount Mee
    and Neurum from the existing electorate of Nanango;
    (c) expanding at its south-east to include parts of Elimbah and Donnybrook
    from the existing Pumicestone electorate;
    (d) transferring the area west of the Bruce Highway including Beerwah,
    Landsborough and Mooloolah Valley to the proposed Caloundra
    electorate; and
    (e) transferring part of Caboolture and Bellmere north of the Caboolture
    River to the proposed Pumicestone electorate.

  3. The changes mostly hurt ALP marginals – Indooroopilly loses Toowong (with its uni students and relatively high green vote) and gets Liberal voting Sherwood in compensation. Aspley looses ALP voters in Strathpine and gets solid liberal votes from McDowall as compensation. Pumicestone sheds ALP voters to the New Seat of Morayfield and Barron River extends northward to include (Liberal voting) towns north of cairns, whilst losing ALP voting parts of cairns city. Mudgeeraba expands to take in strongly liberal voting parts of Robina and loses ALP voting parts of Nerang.

    The ALP sees the seat of Fitzroy abolished and merged with NP held Mirani (essentially recreating the former marginal ALP electorate of Broadsound that existed prior to the 1992 redistribution) ALP voting Bowen is excised from Whitsunday (But moves to the marginal NP seat of Burdekin, creating problems for the Nats there) Cook extends to the Atherton Tablelands now – and is probably the obvious seat for one nations rosa Lee Long to contest, now that her own electorate has been abolished.

    Dolly Pratt (IND) has her seat of Nanango expand dramatically – it takes in more NP voting towns, making life difficult for her, especially if Bjelke-Peterson jnr runs again.

    For the Libs, Noosa is strengthened by the loss of coolum beach, Mermaid Beach is effectively a successor seat to Robina (and should be a comfortable hold). Caloundra loses some Liberal booths, but doesnt seem on balance to be effected. The only LP seat which is really negatively impacted is Clayfield (once the party’s safest brisbane electorate) , which expands further into ALP territory.

    Of the three ‘completely new seats’ Sunnybank, Coomera and Buderim, The alP will win the first, whilst the Coalition should be favoured to win the last two.

  4. 253 Mudgeeraba is another difficult seat for Labor now with big chunks of Robina being moved there. Di Reilly, the ALP member will have a tougher job to win from here.

    The Commission proposes to alter the existing district by the addition of part
    of the suburb of Robina (including Robina Town Centre) bounded by the
    Pacific Highway, Robina Parkway and Gooding Drive from the existing Robina
    electorate.
    To balance elector numbers in the electorate, the Commission proposes to
    reunite parts of Highland Park and Worongary south of Alexander Drive within
    the proposed Gaven electorate. Parts of Carrara and Nerang between the
    Pacific Highway and Birmingham Road will also be transferred to the
    proposed Gaven electorate.
    In order to rectify a small anomaly, an area surrounding Chesterfield Drive in
    Bonogin is to be transferred from the existing Currumbin electorate.

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