ACNielsen: 57-43

Now ACNielsen comes through with a post-budget federal poll, its first since the election. Michelle Grattan details the results thus:

The poll of 1400, taken from Thursday to Saturday, found the budget had gone down well, with two-thirds “satisfied” and 57% thinking it “fair”. This is despite just 31% believing it will make them better off — about the same proportion (30%) who think it will leave them worse off. The Government seems to have chosen an acceptable cut-in point for new welfare means tests, with a majority agreeing those on the $150,000 household income were “wealthy”. Mr Rudd’s approval is 69%, making him the second most popular PM since 1972, only behind Bob Hawke, who was on 75% in late 1984. John Howard’s highest approval rating was 67% in early 2005. Dr Nelson’s approval is 34%, with his disapproval 48%. Kim Beazley, Simon Crean and Alexander Downer all hit lower points as opposition leaders. Labor has substantially improved its position since the election. It is up four points to lead the Coalition 57% to 43% on a two-party basis (remembering of course that ACNielsen also had the result at 57-43 in the last poll it conducted, immediately before the election – PB). Labor has a primary vote of 46%, three points higher than at the November election, to the Coalition’s 38%, four points down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

258 comments on “ACNielsen: 57-43”

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  1. Australia building biggest solar power station in the world
    October 26, 2006

    http://media.cleantech.com/node/242

    Not South Australia, sadly MayoFeral.

    Do you know the name of the company developing a large scale solar generating system somewhere at either the top of South Australia, or maybe the Territory? Four Corners had something on it last year.

  2. Many thanks to Antony and Possum for the references to Ian Watson’s work and for Antony’s explanation.

  3. Slightly off subject but politically related anyway. I was listening to the parliamentary news station early this morning and was only half awake but there was a spokesperson who I think was from the RACV (but I might be wrong on that) talking about world parity pricing of oil by Australia. I thought I heard him say that we may have to do away with it for the price of fuel to drop because most of our fuel is produced from our own oil.

    I know it was the Fraser government that introduced world parity pricing but was wondering if there was anyone out there in PB land that understands the effect of world parity and who benefits from it. Is it the oil companies (e.g. BHP Esso), the Government or anybody else or would we have much cheaper fuel today if it hadn’t been introduced in the first place?

  6. Plenty of ways to spend the $8000 PV rebate discussed on Quantum tonight.

    Small note – check the move to remove planning control from individual councils in greater Melbourne.
    Decentralised control of urban populaces is one of the dumbest ways to put lag in the evolution (revolution?) cycle of a city. The environmental lead London has shown cannot be followed currently without major planning reform.

  7. zoom

    Lake Hume 58 megawatts http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Hume

    Thomson Reservoir and Cardinia Reservoir pipeline 50 GWh a year http://melbournewater.com.au/content/publications/fact_sheets/water/meeting_the_greenhouse_challenge.asp?bhcp=1

    Lake Buffalo agreed, must have been too far from the grid.

    Eildon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eildon_Power_Station,_Victoria_(Australia)

    Nillahcootie agreed, listed as a potential site http://kids.mdbc.gov.au/encyclopedia/electricity_generation

    Lake Mokoan is being decommissioned ( the lake), too shallow, too large.

    Superloaf, I think your right but I can’t find a ref either way.

  8. A Tracey Affafair are milking Bonkgate for it’s worth with an “exclusive interview” with Tania Z and insuating that it’s Rudd’s fault for not commenting.

  9. onimod 206, you dont have to look behind his ear for the 666!!!!! The destruction of the Liberal Party of Australia is due to such people.

  10. I notice in the program guide Rudd is on the ABC for a hour tonight in a new show called Q&A. Anyone know anything about that?

  12. 203

    From the WA Fuelwatch website:

    “Central to the price of petrol in Australia is the price petrol is selling for overseas. Successive Commonwealth Governments since 1977 have adopted an import parity pricing policy to determine national pricing levels for all motor fuels. This means the domestic price for petrol in Australia is linked to international petrol prices to ensure local refiners will not sell their offshore to obtain higher prices (and potentially leave no fuel for the local market).”

    Ultimately, this benefits the fuel companies since without the import parity there would be one instance where a major fuel shortage would occur. This would then followed by massive pressure from the voters to prevent it happening again, resulting in the politicians forcing the oil companies to sell the required amount of fuel to the Australian market, at prices supported by the supply and demand of the local market.

  13. Kina apparently there is a studio audience who will be able to ask Kev questions plus they’ll take email and sms questions as well.

  14. [Kina apparently there is a studio audience who will be able to ask Kev questions plus they’ll take email and sms questions as well.]

    And watch them stack the audience questions, emails and sms messages to attack Rudd 🙂

  17. Rudd just said that all alternative energy options should be on the table.

    I therefore look forward to progress on the nuclear option.

  18. Crikey Whitey @ 201 – Sorry, don’t know and so far haven’t been able to find it on the 4 Corners site either. But saw the following quote from former 4 Corners reporter Jonathon Holmes on a thread titled ‘The folly of subsidising solar panels’:

    we should subsidise solar panels (perhaps with a feed-in tariff, which S.A. and Vic are both looking at) only after we have introduced a much tougher energuy efficiency standard – and no one should be able to qualify for a solar panel susidy unless their house passes an energy audit – good insulation, efficient appliances etc. we’re way behind the international eightball on energy efficiency and that’s the cheapest way to reduce emissions.
    http://tinyurl.com/5xpcom

    which sums up my feelings on the subject, though I may be biased as I figure I would qualify on that criteria.

    And just to expand the discussion. Instead of ‘call me Brendan’ wasting billions of our taxes on a paltry 5 cents a litre reduction in petrol excise wouldn’t it be better a) initially putting the money into more effective public transport and b) then reverse energy wasting urban sprawl by consolidating our cities into more compact units that don’t require some folk to spend more hours commuting to work than they actually spend doing it!

    Every time I hear some #@$%wit going on about releasing more land on the outer fringes of capital cities to contain housing price increases I want to scream!

  20. James J Says:
    May 22nd, 2008 at 9:42 pm

    I therefore look forward to progress on the nuclear option.

    With Europe going flat out installing wind farms and building no more nuclear reactors ( one reason being a lack of fuel reserves), James wants the nuclear option on the table; well I suppose you have to have something to laugh at.

  21. James J Says:
    May 22nd, 2008 at 9:42 pm

    I therefore look forward to progress on the nuclear option.

    With Europe going flat out installing wind farms and building no more nuclear reactors ( one reason being a lack of fuel reserves), James wants the nuclear option on the table; well I suppose you have to have something to laugh at.

  22. The ABC Q and A, just begins in SA. Hoping to watch, with interest.

    Between heightened anxiety further phone calls, rellies and friends. Not to mention my ghastly neighbour. Not the waterer, the one on the other side. What an immoral person she happens to be. I am besieged. Strata Title issues. I rang in response to a letter from her lawyer, asking if it is true that I will be summonsed. Yes, he said. Bring it on, I said. She is after all, a liar and a thief, I did not say. And amazingly, doesn’t get it. I will be fine, as I am not of the same type, but who needs it?

    It will be my birthday on Saturday, you are all invited to the party. But God, what a pile up. I should be cooking, I have managed to clear the kitchen in advance, but.

    Thanks, MayoFeral. Thinking about it, I may be able to find out by alternative means.

  23. If you do away with parity fuel pricing, you’d have a fuel shortage quicker than Kruddy can say “when it comes to…”. The companies would sell our oil overseas where they would get a better price. And if exports were banned, there would be no increase in production that we would need as there would be no reason for anyone to export to Australia (we import a 1/3 of our oil) if they were going to get a crap price. Oil workers would seek green pastures overseas (more so than now) and that would cause a breakdown in the supply system.

    Of course, we could Nationalise the local oil industry but I think the “just terms” might be a little steep for the nation to handle.

    We need to learn with high fuel prices and we need to come up with a new source of fuel sometime soon (biofuel based on a farmed saltwater algae perhaps).

  25. GHV at 212

    If I’m reading you right we are being dudded by parity but the fact that local refiners could decide to sell overseas to get a better price and thereby leaving us without any fuel seems to be the reason for having parity. Would I be right in saying that had we the reserves that say Iraq or Saudi Arabia has there might not be a case for parity. I inderstand fuel is extremely cheap in those two countries.

  27. Kina@224: He certainly is.! Watched the show and thought he handled himself astutely. No yelling, no tirades, not afraid to disagree,some excellent humour and he spoke to the questioners not at them.

  28. Rudd on Q&A tonight-did you notice the open body language? This bloke is not afraid. Which sort of gives some hope.

  29. James@226: He did answer it.

    Basically said in Australia marriage was between a man and women. That was the policy of the government and him personally.

    Now personally I don’t agree with him as I don’t have any problems with same sex marriages.But he did point out his governments attempt to address other areas of inequality and discrimination for same sex couples.

  30. Solar panels: yes, could build solar farms (although parking 15 sqm of panels somewhere is an AWFULLY big piece of coverage) – but the issue should be decentralisation of power supply so it doesn’t have to be transmitted – big power losses in transmission. Decentralised power also mitigates against cloud/non-functionality. But solar is only part of the solution, with other renewables acting in concert – so windfarms producing along side solar, hotrocks etc.

    But surely the biggest problem is too many things switched on drawing power! Power conservation would limit need for new power stations altogether.

    On building codes and planning: BASIX in NSW has been watered down again, so perhaps its just too much for major parties to consider at the moment (too many vested interests/donations at stake?). Yes, improved codes could apply to new buildings, but old buildings can be very expensive to refit (depending on the period/construction materials/method etc) so are not economical to do so. Needs to be phased, so is included in renewal of housing stock, with some rebates available for simply stuff (like insulation etc). And frankly, you’d be a twit for not putting in ceiling insulation if you can, just to save money/warmth etc.

    On removing planning from local Councils: this removes ability of residents to control their own locality. Should be based in building codes/regulations. Removing power from Councils is what Sartor is doing here in NSW, and it is directly tied to the want of the Property Council to develop to their (or at least their members) hearts desire. Not about good planning but about developers making money. Councils can be quite relatively responsive where they are not dominated by one party or faction. Inner Sydney Councils have generally been quite progressive at looking at buildings/design etc for energy/water efficiency over recent years.

    Okay, thats about five bucks worth now.

  31. Enjaybee – to complicate the parity issue, we don’t have enough refining capacity to meet our petrol, and especially diesel needs. Here in SA almost all our petrol comes from Singapore and I believe almost all the country’s diesel comes from there too.

    Of course we could either recommission mothballed refineries like Port Stanvac here, or build new ones, but economics of scale mean that we’d likely end up paying even more per litre. Plus we just end up using up our limited oil resource faster.

    It boils down to petrol is going to get a whole lot more expensive – some are saying oil will hit US$200/barrel by year’s end which means around $2-30/Litre petrol – and while we might be able to manipulate the price a bit by playing funny buggers with parity pricing or 5 cents/litre excise reductions, in the end we’re going to be paddleless up you know which creek.

  32. Takes courage to expose yourself for an hour and take questions from left field. To have such confidence means he certainly knows what he is about and what he plans. Funny to think his Labor comrades thought he was a nerdy type who wouldn’t amount to much.

  34. Q&A
    Pretty classy stuff from the Ruddster.
    Probably too easy, but he does know how to work a room.
    I wonder whether he’s avoiding a greater level of personalisation on purpose, or if it’s something he need to work on a bit? He could be bonding a bit more, but it can cost you the air of statesmanship. (Compare with PM Hawke)

    Can you imagine where we’d be without the nice little mess Costello left behind him?

  35. Mayoferral

    I have been doing some work on petrol prices lately. In the short term it is very hard to know what will happen; there could be elements of panic and speculation in the recent price spike. However we can probably say the following:

    – the price cycle is usually at its highest when demand is at its highest in the northern hemisphere summer holiday season, so expect high(er) prices from now till August (whereas gas usualy peaks with heating demadn in the NH winter)
    – there probably is some profiteering going on as 60% of our oil is not imported
    – the real issue is what happens from around 2012 onwards. The IEA medium term forcast is that from then on declines from old fields will exceed new production, while demand from India and China appears to be rising. So we will actually be in a shortage situation of 11% then (as opposed to the current balance of supply and demand without any margin for reserves).

    Hopefully this is enough for people to stop saying this nonsense about us continuing to build V6s because of their export potential. There is good reason to believe the export market will dry up just as badly as the local one. The soner we can build a hybrid Comodore and Aurion, and Ford Fiesta, the better.

  36. On Q&A Tony Jones was really pally with Kev, he was even smiling and nodding with what Kev had to say. I loved the updated Chairman Rudd video at the end.

  37. Can anyone imagine the Rodent doing what Rudd just did?

    I think a couple questions not quite answered, but the show was new to everyone. gay marriage is something the Ruddster has some problems with, due to religious beliefs.

  38. MayoFeral Says:
    May 22nd, 2008 at 11:02 pm

    Of course we could either recommission mothballed refineries like Port Stanvac here, or build new ones, but economics of scale mean that we’d likely end up paying even more per litre. Plus we just end up using up our limited oil resource faster.

    If oil production had peaked and you were in the know would you build a new refinery or open a moth balled refinery…do you know of a new refinery being built or a moth balled one being reopened.

    This whole 5cents debate is nonsense, we are running out of oil, demand is exceeding supply, lower prices are not going to happen. The best outcome is for prices to rise sharply to encourage a sharp fall in demand.

    If you own a hoover ( suck up the juice) tough.

  40. Progressive,

    Will be Tanya Plebersek, Tony Abbot and Bob Brown, as well as a panel of journos asking some questions with the audience.

  43. BenC I’m sure they would’ve reserved their decision even if it had reached an end to the court proceedings.

  44. Eight new seats have been created in the Queensland electoral redistribution and eight eliminated

    Buderim, Coomera, Dalby, Macrossan, Mermaid Beach, Morayfield, Samsonvale and Sunnybank are the new seats.

    Government seats with eliminated are Fitzroy, Kurwongbah and Mt Gravatt.

    One nation’s Tablelands seat is eliminated.

    The Nationals seats of Charters Towers, Darling Downs and Cunningham have been eliminated.

    Liberal’s Robina has been eliminated.

  45. Steve

    Has anyone done any analysis of the electoral impacts of the Queensland distribution? The Sunshine Coast in particular was one area they did well in previously but has been changing demographics.

    Also, will this mean the prospect of three cornered contests if seats dissappear and the coalition can’t do a deal over whoc ounts as the sitting member? To me there is a huge risk for the Nats in this given Queensland’s optional preferential voting system. Do Possum or others have a view?

  46. 245 One Minister’s seat, Judy Spence in Mt Gravatt has been eliminated and Cook has been altered drastically which might make it hard for Jason O’Brien. Main Roads and Local Government Minister Warren Pitt looks ok in Mulgrave. Southport’s Peter Lawlor might find it difficult with a lot of Surfers Paradise moving into that electorate. Coomera gets a lot of Gaven and this might make it difficult for Phil Gray.

    At first glance it looks like Howard Hobbs might come under pressure to make way for Stewart Copeland or Ray Hopper who the Nationals would not like to lose but both their seats are gone. Overall it looks like the Nationals are the winners from this redistribution.

  48. Socrates, the Liberals or the Pineapple party have been given a big chance of winning Indooroopilly. Ronan Lee who has depended on the youth vote around Toowong loses this area to Mt Cootha electorate and the entire blue ribbon suburb of Sherwood has been put in his electorate.

    Mt Isa will be more difficult with Richmond and surrounding districts being put in the electorate. Cook becomes more difficult for Labor with the Mareeba area being included.

    Amberley Air force base has been put into Ipswich West from Lockyer and I’d assume this would benefit the Pineapple party.

    Logan has gained parts of Albert, Beaudesert and Lockyer electorates which will make life more difficult for Transport Minister John Mickel.

  50. Another interesting change is to Gregory held by long term National Vaughn Johnston.

    “The Commission proposes to address the shortfall of elector numbers by
    expanding the seat at its north and east to gain:
    (a) parts of Central Highlands Regional Council and Isaac Regional Council
    including Duaringa, Blackwater and Dingo and the Woorabinda
    Aboriginal Shire Council from the existing Fitzroy electorate; and
    (b) parts of Central Highlands Regional Council and Barcaldine Regional
    Council including Tieri, Capella, Clermont, Alpha, Jericho, Aramac and
    Muttaburra from the existing Charters Towers electorate.”

    Labor has traditionally just stood a Brisbane student with no chance of winning in the seat but this time with the Central Western coalfields included they might be tempted to run a serious campaign in the seat.

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