ACNielsen: 57-43

Now ACNielsen comes through with a post-budget federal poll, its first since the election. Michelle Grattan details the results thus:

The poll of 1400, taken from Thursday to Saturday, found the budget had gone down well, with two-thirds “satisfied” and 57% thinking it “fair”. This is despite just 31% believing it will make them better off — about the same proportion (30%) who think it will leave them worse off. The Government seems to have chosen an acceptable cut-in point for new welfare means tests, with a majority agreeing those on the $150,000 household income were “wealthy”. Mr Rudd’s approval is 69%, making him the second most popular PM since 1972, only behind Bob Hawke, who was on 75% in late 1984. John Howard’s highest approval rating was 67% in early 2005. Dr Nelson’s approval is 34%, with his disapproval 48%. Kim Beazley, Simon Crean and Alexander Downer all hit lower points as opposition leaders. Labor has substantially improved its position since the election. It is up four points to lead the Coalition 57% to 43% on a two-party basis (remembering of course that ACNielsen also had the result at 57-43 in the last poll it conducted, immediately before the election – PB). Labor has a primary vote of 46%, three points higher than at the November election, to the Coalition’s 38%, four points down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

258 comments on “ACNielsen: 57-43”

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  1. The water from the North South pipeline doesn’t come from the Murray either.

    It comes from Eildon dam.

    The water from Eildon goes into the Goulburn which eventually gets to the Murray BUT the water which is intended for the NS pipeline is supposed to come from water savings – so water which probably wouldn’t get to the Murrray because it would have been evaporated or leaked.

    You could argue that, without the N-S pipeline, more water would eventually get to the Murray but then, without the N-S pipeline, the work which will save this water won’t happen, so there won’t be more water to go to the Murray anyway.

    Absolutely no argument about hydro, but that’s nothing to do with the n-s pipeline or indeed most of our dams – we have plenty that do nothing hydro wise.

  2. On another topic, listened to news radio as I was in the car alot today. It is incredible how much coverage and air time the fed opposition get. Virtually every story had Nelson or Turnbull commenting, and no one from government. The ABC wont give up their allegiance easily will they??

  3. [Virtually every story had Nelson or Turnbull commenting, and no one from government. The ABC wont give up their allegiance easily will they??]

    This is absurd. The story was about Turnbull’s press club address where he claimed that cutting the petrol excise was a good policy “politically”, which of course implies that it isn’t a good policy _economically_.

    I don’t think the ABC is biased either for or against the Government. They annoy both sides, which is why they are always accused of being biased, when they are actually less biased than most commercial media.

  4. Frank, the Federal Government copped it twice tonight on TT. Pensioners and water. They made Rudd out to be the devil incarnate. Do they have an agenda or what?

  5. i have said it before people who watch such shows allow them to be on television.
    People who watch dumb shows encourage dumb shows to be shown.

  6. Sorry to bang on about this, truly I am, but Charles – can you nominate a river that can be dammed to supply Melbourne with water?

    My understanding is that (apart from Ted’s plan to dam the Marbybinong(?)) all the ones that could be have been and the only reason the one starting with M hasn’t is that it isn’t a practical proposition.

    The argument for the desal plant, which you haven’t addressed, is that it provides a drought proof supply of water, which our present water supplies don’t.

    Until this drought, nobody (that’s NO BODY) thought Melbourne’s water supply would ever be threatened and thus nobody thought there was a need for any supplementary supplies. The extent of this drought took everyone, even the experts, by surprise.

    Thus the recognition that Melbourne needs a back up plan, a source of water which is not dependant on rain or – indeed – dependent on reservoirs which can be rendered unusable after a bushfire (the threat to the Thompson during the last fires were very real. An inability to draw usable water from the Thompson would have been catastrophic for Melbourne).

  7. [Frank, the Federal Government copped it twice tonight on TT. Pensioners and water. They made Rudd out to be the devil incarnate. Do they have an agenda or what?]

    I noticed that, though I wasn’t watching the screen, it was on in the background.

    SEven is owned by Kerry Stokes, a member of the Liberal Party’s 500 club, which is rather ironic as one of his political reporters here in Perth, Reece Whitby, has just won preselection for the state ALP seat of Morley.

  9. Speaking of the ABC. I have been getting cane toads appearing on my front lawn most nights but no Albrechtsens as yet. Don’t think my freezer would be big enough. :]

    I hardly even watch the ABC news or current affairs shows now, pointless. I will wait until there is a change and Howard’s toxic leeches are burnt off.

    I check out the web site occassionally just to see what issues are out and about.

  11. Marky
    problem is defining a catchment.
    In its broadest definition, every single tree is in a catchment.
    It was always understood (in the good old days of the MWB) that major water reservoir catchments were protected from all human impact, so ‘logging in a catchment’ simply didn’t happen.
    Recently, however, the definition of ‘catchment’ appears to have been extended.
    Appears – to me, at least, and I admit this isn’t one I’ve gone into much, my areas of interest not overlapping with the ones in question – to be a way of ending logging by stealth.
    Yes, unlogged forests produce better, cleaner and more water than logged. But logging i. provides a totally renewable source of material; ii. provides a material for which there is a constant demand; iii. provides a material which is largely carbon neutral in its production; iv. is one of those things best done where we can see it rather than where we can’t.
    Personally, I’m all for pine plantations, but you should hear the whinging from the environmental groups about THEM.

  12. Hey zoom
    Are Australian pine plantations really all that productive?
    They sure make a mess of former bushland and the Canberra fires illustrate the risk they create to human development.
    There’s nothing quite so wonderful as climbing above a plantation pine forest into a natural eucalypt one, so I have personal bias, but I’m a bit clueless on the net environmental and economic benefit.

  13. Diogenes and Harry Snapper Organs

    Happy to accept your view (and amused to hear) that the AMA knows little about medicine. I am not a doctor and was simply assuming that they know their own field, hence my term “credible”. I just didn’t feel qualified to criticise their medical knowledge and was damning with faint praise. The emphasis in my statement was intended to be on the second part – that they are not credible on health economics. On that I feel confident 🙂

    Also Harry, I fully agree on your comments on dodgy studies – the questionable ethics of funding studies to satisfy the ends of the payee is a big problem in science. It can be difficult in engineering too. Some environmental scientists knocked back bidding to work on the pulp mill proposal for Gunns – the process was obviously inadequate. But that didn’t stop others doing the job.

  14. I’m not sure how they work in productive terms, but I would argue that if you want to stop/reduce native forest logging they’re the best option.
    No, they shouldn’t be planted on former bushland, but on land already cleared. There’s plenty of marginal farming land which is perfectly suitable for pines.

    My understanding was that the forests around Canberra were not being managed; they had decided never to log them and therefore the trees were old and overgrown.
    My knowledge of European pine forests and fires are hazy, to say the least, but I do know that nothing beats a eucalypt forest for intensity, yet we have far more towns nestled amongst eucalypts than we do amongst pines. I would think pines are safer (but if you build amongst trees in our environment you’re asking for trouble).

    I came to pine plantations with a bias, having seen an area ‘ruined’ by them, but have since researched the issue more thoroughly (and live slap bang next to one, so have some first hand knowledge!)
    Anyway, over 90% of our timber needs can be supplied by pine, which means much less reliance on native timber. It’s locally grown, so we know what happens with its management;it’s carbon neutral (and growing more pine would be good in climate change terms); and generally it can do most of the building jobs hardwood can (although never, never, never buy pine decking – it’s crap).

  15. Onimod

    Pine plantations are highly productive in the sense that many pine species are fast growing trees in teh Australian climate. The problem is that they (some species) can have a detrimental impact on soil in the long term (acidic foliage droppings from pine needles) generally produce less valuable timber (softwood) and don’t hold the soil together as well as eucalypts. But it varies – some pine species produce very valuable timber. I imagine it all depends on what species, where it is planted, and how it is harvested.

  16. Possum @ 40

    That stuff about the Coalition’s strongest demographic being a particular age group that’s, well, ageing is pretty interesting. The bracket you mention, people now approaching seventy or older, is pretty much the pre baby boom generation isn’t it?. Anyone born, say, 1940 or earlier? Those were the people who were just that bit older during the social changes and economic turbulence of the 60s and 70s, which makes for some interesting theories. Do you have any idea how long that age group has been heavily Coalition-voting compared to the immediately younger group? I imagine the polling data gets sketchier the further you go back though.

  18. OH DEAR!

    Not only sin tax but poor keying, on my part, too much junk near the key board. What I wanted to say is who is Hutt? And I cannot remember..your months earlier comment on my style involved a character, whose name I cannot summon to mind, but upon showing it to my friends, brought incredulous laughter and much ridicule.

    Not to worry and as I spare them little, you provided them a great opportunity, not usually available, to bring me down. Which they enjoyed. And cool.

    But who the hell are these Hutt persons?

  19. From my understanding the pines and also the cork plantation were part of Burley Griffins plan for a sustainable industry and econimic future for Canberra as against just pollies coming to Canberra. During the depression a lot of people were employed planting the pines. It’s just a shame that the NCDC couldn’t get the collective finger out and do something positive.

  21. Reading on, No, you did not, as far as can tell, William at 135, I am not in the least offended. I am amused. As are those to whom I refer, ( is that correct?) enjoy reading the print outs along with the opportunity for a laugh at my expense.

    And thanks, Cille at 140, for that advice. She definitely should know, she is a Labor voter but likes, I reckon, having a good moan.

  22. zoom

    There may be one, but I doubt you can find a serious dam without a hydro station attached, it’s just one of those things dam builder like to do.

    There are a couple of dams that still need to be built in Victoria, Maribyrnong River, lerderburg gorge (now theres a undammed gully and river that makes the mouth water) and Michial River come to mind but I agree; Bolte pretty much cleaned the job up.

    My own view is the north/south pipeline must be built and unfortunately the risk is too high not to build the desalination plants. It might rain, it might not, you can’t base the future of a large city on a pray.

    My issue with dams is the damage the environmental movement has done to itself opposing them, and now wind farms, no doubt the first serious solar station will also see protests, they cover a large area with well; solar panels. We need to move away from carbon as our energy source, it would be helpful if the environment movement supported the move instead of opposing any form of development.

  23. Oh and my poetic effort over the snowy was to try and point out that Labor have been good dam builders to ( remember this all started because Possum painted all national voters as unreasonable because they want to build dams between any two hills). Perhaps I should have picked on Queensland where Labor is giving the Liberals stick because the Liberal member is opposing the building of a dam to try and secure Brisbanes water supply.

  24. When I listen to Kerr chat with Phil Adams on LNL I get the impression that he’s an astute observer of politics. Then when I read rubbish like this:

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/christiankerr/index.php/theaustralian/comments/libs_right_to_take_a_populist_approach/

    he comes across as a fool. Why is that so? It is true that the Libs are not running the country but that doesn’t mean they can get away with crazy policy making on the run – policy that they will have to dump as the next election approaches.

  25. Windfarms!! Windfarms and the green movement!!!!

    Charles, Charles, don’t get me started!

    I know of more ‘water storages’ without hydro than I know of ones with. Maroondah, Lake Buffalo, Nilahcootie, Mokoan, Sugarloaf, Lake Hume, Thompson…off the top of my head. The only ones I KNOW of with hydro are Bogong, which is quite a small water storage and, of course, the Snowy. Don’t think Eildon has, either. Quite happy to be corrected, not claiming expert knowledge here.

    BTW, the hydro from Bogong is being expanded – very exciting project, one of the few cases where there’s net benefit to the environment. Ticks lots of boxes. Look it up (AGL project).

  29. Thomarse

    What do they call the Nationals? Notionals? Delusionals? The Appendix Party? The Party’s Over Party? Pinneapple Party? The Nutbar Coalition?

  30. Possum and everyone else, if you’re interested in demography and voting, the best paper on the subject in recent years is by Ian Watson.
    http://www.ianwatson.com.au/pubs/watson_demography_against_coalition.pdf

    There are two broad views about age and voting. There is the life cycle view, that people start off radical and get more conservative as they age, and the cohort view, that often certain cohorts born around the same time have sets of views that dominate through life.

    Cohorts are important. The generation born in the depression, or after the war, or in the 1970s, started life with different values and views of the world.

    The Coalition’s current problem is that most research points to first time voters being more consistently left-leaning since 1970. And before someone points out that the 2004 Australian Election Survey had more first time Liberal voters than Labor voters, viewing this as in support of a rising young Coalition vote only works if you ignore the one in five who voted Green.

    But in the 1950s and 1960s, first time voters consistently voted Coalition. This was especially so for young women, for whom the overwhelmingly working class Labor Party had little appeal.

    It is these overwhelmingly Coalition first-time voters of the 50s and 60s, and the fact that women live longer than men, that explain the Coalition’s dominance today in older age groups.

    Back in 1971, a year after Labor had been in opposition from coast to coast, Don Aitkin produced the first edition of ‘Stability and Change in Australian Voting’, a standard though now out of date work on Australian voting beheviour. On the basis of 1967 and 1969 surveys, the conculsion he drew was that Labor’s electoral failure of the previous decade could be put down to its lack of appeal to young voters, to women voters and to migrant voters.

    Now, which party would you make that sort of point about today?

  32. Cheers Antony
    Nice little packet of data there.
    I guess we’re going to be stuck with alcopops at one end and pensioners at the other for a while yet, while the ALP try to stop ‘working families’ from drifting conservative.

  33. two things:
    Plantations – can be both softwood (pine) and hardwood (Eucalypt). Have different uses and growth outputs etc. Pine is actually good for water quality but they also suck a lot up. Also lots of work being done on short-rotation hardwoods (to 7 years before harvesting) to increase production. And should only be on old farmland.

    Dams – hydro is fine but relys on rainfall. In a falling rainfall situation they lose utility (and I’m not even going close to the environmental issues surrounding dams). But we don’t do water conservation, stormwater harvesting, grey & black water harvesting etc very well. Consider also that while mining uses just 3% of total water usage, this can represent up to 50% in a locality. In terms of windfarms and environmentalist, this issue is changing with climate change, and for solar panels – why the Rudd cut to the solar cell rebate? We have millions of hectares of roof space that can be used for both water and solar harvesting.

    my two cents…

  34. Stewart J

    Regarding energy policy, its sobering to realise that in Ireland renewable energy requirements mean that, although not mandatory, in practice most new homes now have solar hot water.

    “Starting at the end of 2005, a number of progressive local authorities introduced building energy standards as part of planning requirements in their jurisdiction. These building energy standards require a substantial increase in the energy performance of new buildings (between 40% and 60% reduction in energy usage) as well as a mandatory contribution of renewable energy to their thermal energy requirement.” (From a report on Local Building Energy Standards in Ireland)

    There is quite a bit more solar energy in australia than Ireland, so we don’t have many excuses left when they accept standards like this. So even if they think that solar PVs are not the most economic solution, lets see an initiative in its place that is economic – surely, solar hot water fits that bill.

  35. Stewart J @ 183 – I have both solar water heating and a grid-connect photovoltaic (PV) system.

    All new electric hw systems (new installations and replacement) in SA must now include solar panels, and IME this gives the biggest return for your buck. I’m able to turn off power to my hw heater from around the end of August until late April/early May.

    On current prices the only thing that makes PV generating worthwhile is that from July 1 in SA AGL will have to pay at least twice the retail price for every KWh of electricity pumped back into the grid with an initial minimum price of $0.44 KWh. Queensland is or will soon be doing the same. Of course as the price of electricity rises and the cost of PV cells drop generating your own power will become more worthwhile.

    But that said, I’m not convinced that individual PV generation is the best use of resources or the taxpayers’ money in subsidies. It would be cheaper per watt, and less wasteful in resources, to build large solar farms in areas with the most hours of daily sunlight with cells mounted on Sun tracking frames. The latter alone increases output by 30-50% but isn’t economical for small personal installations.

    There is no reason why we couldn’t have a scheme where people still bought 1KWh of generating capacity with the current $8-00/watt government subsidy but instead of having the PV panels on their own roofs they were in a solar farm up north somewhere and they got a share of the profits, or a discount off their power bills. An added benefit might be that the farms could be sited near indigenous communities providing work which may ease the social problems some have.

  36. 185 Mayo
    That’s a nice summary of what appears to be an educated view of the issue. You’re not the only one with that view either, but it’s a view which hasn’t even seen the light of day in the MSM.

    A little bird told me that sustainability policy is one that’ll get a big push later in the year. Hell, we’ve waited 10 years (or fifty)…

  37. You have to laugh. The Daily Terror has put up a story about Tania Zaetta.
    It begins “PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd has weighed into the alleged Tania Zaetta sex scandal, while fellow tour members have revealed what life was really like on tour.”
    The Rudd haters have failed to read past this opening paragraph and have accused him of all manner of sins eg. Wanting a headline by mixing with stars etc.
    But this is what Rudd had to say “”I have seen those reports today and, as I understand it, these matters are under investigation within the defence department and I will leave it for that investigation to reach its own conclusions,” he told reporters in Canberra.” That is, thanks for asking (a journalsi obviously asked him about it) but no comment. Amazing stuff.

  38. [You have to laugh. The Daily Terror has put up a story about Tania Zaetta.
    It begins “PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd has weighed into the alleged Tania Zaetta sex scandal, while fellow tour members have revealed what life was really like on tour.”]

    and note it came out 2 days after the conclusion of the Australian Story 2 parter on said tour.

  41. 190 ruawake – it could be argued that they were told not fraternise with the troops (not to that degree anyway) but I agree with you. Big deal.

  42. [190 ruawake – it could be argued that they were told not fraternise with the troops (not to that degree anyway) but I agree with you. Big deal.]

    And then there is this gem on his recent Bali Trip. And guess who is upset, the Shadow Minister for protecting Tania Zaetta 🙂

    [THE Federal Opposition has described as “absolutely staggering” the $500,000 cost of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s trip to Bali to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

    The travel and accommodation bill included $40,000 on hospitality costs.

    Opposition frontbencher Nick Minchin – a finance minister in the previous Howard Coalition government – says the cost of the trip is inexcusable.

    “I think the Australian people should be absolutely appalled at this junket, to beat all junkets, (that) occurred within three weeks of the Labor party winning government,” he told Fairfax Radio Network.

    “We then had nearly half the cabinet heading off to Bali for a two-day junket to just have a talk about climate change.”

    Senator Minchin questioned why it was necessary to send the prime minister, five cabinet ministers, 35 bureaucrats and 12 staff for a talk about climate change.

    “I just find it absolutely staggering,” he said.

    Mr Rudd was only in Bali for two nights in December but his tab included $39,051 in hospitality costs, $5255 in ground transport, $1081 in accommodation and $1125 for an accompanying doctor. ]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,23737011-949,00.html

  44. Mayoferal @ 185

    It would be cheaper per watt, and less wasteful in resources, to build large solar farms in areas with the most hours of daily sunlight with cells mounted on Sun tracking frames.

    Agreed, and the consumer still receives the kickback. What does it matter where the electricity comes from, as long it comes?

    In my street we have shade many hours per day (“leafy” Sydney northern suburbs). A battery of solar cells on my roof would he HIGHLY inefficient as the sun traverses between large eucalypts and the roofs of other houses. Bloody ugly, too (we “leafy” types like to keep things “leafy”).

    Now, put the same number of solar cells on a solar farm, in bright sunshine all day, tracked to the sun’s movement and you’re talking efficiency.

    Furthermore, the same crew of installers that took a whole day to install my three solar cells, high-up on a roof with special tiler’s OH&S insurance, could install probably twenty times that amount in the same time at ground level in a solar farm without the hassle and the paperwork. It’s a no-brainer of a solution.

    So I rang up Origin Energy (a leader in Australian alternative energy strategies) and spoke to a senior manager. I’d worked out that the whole of Australia’s needs could be serviced by a solar farm 15 kilometres square (similar figures have been worked out by many others).

    He agreed that this was an obvious solution. But there was a Catch-22.

    Government policy.

    (Howard) Government policy required the solar cells to be installed on the family home for the kickback to accrue to the householder. When asked (by this guy at Origin) “Why?”, the relevant minister just said, “It’s a residential cashback system.”. When further asked why it had to be not only financially residential but geographically residential his answer was, “Because it has to, that’s why.”

    The real reason, of course, was because the coal companies didn’t like the idea of solar farms competing with them. As long as it was a boutique industry for wankers with bad consciences, doing hardly anything to mitigate global warming, the coal miners were happy.

    If solar actually did something then that would be no good at all.

    Now, Labor has only been in a few months. I’m hoping (perhaps “praying” is a better word for it) that someone, somewhere will see some sense in paying the subsudy even if the actualy physical solar cells are located away from the residence.

  46. I think the $8000 PV rebate goes some way to showing how expensive it is to convert anyone who is slightly environmental to the conservative side of politics.
    I reckon that’s where the thought started and ended.

  47. [190
    ruawake Says:
    May 22nd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
    What is the issue here? I accept Ms Zaetta’s denial of the non-story but if it were true so what.
    Woman bonks man – hardly an unusual event. :-P]

    Woman bonks army may be an unusual event. Was anyone counting?

  48. Petrol in Nambour Qld was $1.33 per litre today – given that Qld fuel should be 8c a litre less than other states that makes it $1.41.

    So why is it $1.60? Would Nelson’s “political” fix of 5c less excise make any difference or would it just give oil companies $5 million a day in profit?

  49. Kina

    What happens on tour… 😛

    Or in other words who cares what consenting adults get up to. (Except if you think we are still fighting the crusades and the SAS are knights templar).

  50. Bushfire Bill @ 184 – I agree that the solar subsidy had more to do with Howard wanting to appear to be do something about global warming without actually costing his coal industry cronies a cent in lost income.

    There are far more effective ways of spending tax dollars on the global warming problem.

    As I type this I can hear my neighbour’s reverse cycle air-conditioner cycling on and off as she tries to keep warm on what is a cold day. In winter and summer it is rarely off because her house is uninsulated so is cold in winter and oven hot in summer. The lack of eaves only adds to the problem in summer.

    There are still no regulations preventing houses being built this way which is unbelievable given what we now know. It is time state governments were booted up the arse for allowing this.

    And they could be doing a lot more to help people improve the energy efficiency of their homes. The $8,000 solar subsidy would do much more good if it went towards retrofitting older homes with insulation, sun blocking verandas (just like our great grandparents had!), double glazing/shutters etc.

    My house is about the same size and construction as my neighbour’s yet I use about 3,000 KWh less electricity than her annually. Thick insulation is the main factor, but so are the security roller shutters I installed soon after moving in to take advantage of local conditions. Most evenings the wind swings around to come over Lakes Albert and Alexandrina to the SE bring cooling breezes from about 4PM on even the hottest days. The shutters allow me to open all my windows at night to cool the house without compromising security and block out the sun during the heat of the day. In summer I rarely need to turn on the air-conditioner.

    Naturally, other areas would have different factors that could be exploited, but savings of 2,000 KWh plus shouldn’t be too hard to find in most houses. OTOH, a 1 KWh system is theoretically rated to produce only 1,500 KWh in my area. In practise its more likely to be 200-300 units less even in ideal conditions and much less in shaded areas.

    The problem is that there is so much we could should be doing and so little time to do it before the brown stuff hits the fan. 🙁

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