Now ACNielsen comes through with a post-budget federal poll, its first since the election. Michelle Grattan details the results thus:
The poll of 1400, taken from Thursday to Saturday, found the budget had gone down well, with two-thirds “satisfied” and 57% thinking it “fair”. This is despite just 31% believing it will make them better off — about the same proportion (30%) who think it will leave them worse off. The Government seems to have chosen an acceptable cut-in point for new welfare means tests, with a majority agreeing those on the $150,000 household income were “wealthy”. Mr Rudd’s approval is 69%, making him the second most popular PM since 1972, only behind Bob Hawke, who was on 75% in late 1984. John Howard’s highest approval rating was 67% in early 2005. Dr Nelson’s approval is 34%, with his disapproval 48%. Kim Beazley, Simon Crean and Alexander Downer all hit lower points as opposition leaders. Labor has substantially improved its position since the election. It is up four points to lead the Coalition 57% to 43% on a two-party basis (remembering of course that ACNielsen also had the result at 57-43 in the last poll it conducted, immediately before the election – PB). Labor has a primary vote of 46%, three points higher than at the November election, to the Coalition’s 38%, four points down.
Possum: Is Heather Locklear still Guest Starring?
The pensioner who went topless got onto AW the next day said to Mitchell in his angriest voice that he was out to get Swan. “We’re coming to get ya Wayne”. “You’ll be out next election.” I don’t know about anybody else listening to this but he lost me with that attitude. It came across as a political exercise rather than a cause.
48
I think you’re right Mayo.
Again, it’s only annecdotal, but the closest pensioner relative I’ve got voted red and is heading further that way.
I think there’s actually a demographic shift toward supporting the social issues in this bracket too – the grand kids become pretty important at that age and the LNP short-sightedness has, and will continue, to gain recognition.
42
I’m ion a rural electorate, though I live in a town. the town voted as-red-as, but was swamped by the landholders.
I don’t see more landholders coming, but the town is growing.
If the pensioners had been chasing Howard up every alley I would be more sympathetic. I just can’t help thinking there is a touch of “let’s get Rudd” about it.
54
I think you might find it’s pretty similar to the demographic of those who still buy papers?
Taking the emotion out of it; would it be any different economically if it was the long term unemployed who were protesting in the streets for more unemployment benefits? And what would the editorial tone of the papers be then?
The idea of welfare as a safety net seems to have been lost by right.
[If the pensioners had been chasing Howard up every alley I would be more sympathetic. I just can’t help thinking there is a touch of “let’s get Rudd” about it.]
I totally agree, I seem to recall that the Pensioners were “Very Grateful” to Mr Howard for “thinking of them” when the last lot of bonuses were given out.
The Kerry Anne Kennerley demographic have a lot to answer for.
[Taking the emotion out of it; would it be any different economically if it was the long term unemployed who were protesting in the streets for more unemployment benefits? And what would the editorial tone of the papers be then?]
THey’d demonise them as “Dole Bludgers”, and the same pensioners would be ringing Neil Mitchell, Howard Sattler & Allan Jones telling them to “Get A Job”.
Hypocrites.
It will be well worth having a peek at Turnbull’s National Press Club address tomorrow. It’s his chance to shine when he presents his take on the budget. I wonder how convincing he will be re the 5c a litre petrol policy of his party.
That should read “5c a litre off”.
Sky Nooz has been giving Turnbull heaps all day – they want to see if he can keep a straight face during the Q&A at the Press Club tomorrow.
We have had a few leaks from Turnbull – his Kyoto thing etc. this is just the latest. Publicly Nelson is saying he does not want to know where the leak came from – I but he is fuming. (Or maybe it was his office that leaked it) 🙂
onimod #17
thanks for the article on Frugals, bloomin’ heck they sound just like me! But I’m not 80 yet I’m still a young 53! I pay cash, no credit card, meat & 3 veg yes, grey nomad no, don’t darn my socks or patch my clothes but the rest fits me to a T!
I think the Tampa kept many pensioners happy under Howard; even if they were half-starving at the time. life’s funny like that.
Why would Turnbull actually want the gig at the moment? He might want Nelson out of the way so as to avoid “damage to the brand”. But if he became the leader and didn’t create the bounce that a saviour should, questions would quickly be asked about his leadership.
He would be better off having Nelson done in, but have someone else (Hockey, Abbott or Bishop) become leader, and let them fail too. Then the party will be begging him take over the job after the next election or even sooner.
I reckon he might have leaked so to do damage to both himself and Nelson, so he is not seen as the only leadership candidate.
Has anyone heard any gossip around how AC Neislson is dealing with winning the prize for the most innacurate election eve poll in 2007?
At the national level they have released nothing of importance since their appalling polling result…that’s six months of silence…
No analysis of how they got it so wrong?
Or are they just hoping time has healed all wounds
Possum’s take on what’s happening has been interesting to think about. Particularly given how many of us have whinged about how the MSM have spun and misrepresented for the Opposition, despite that, the Rudd gov’t. got elected; that it still rates so well in the polls, whether or not that would translate into votes, suggests something has shifted in the electorate and that the electorate itself is changing by demographic change.
The pensioner plus FF Senator (who now will do anything to be re-elected?) always looked to me to be a cooked up number. The people who we really need to be looking after aren’t going to be able to organize such a thing. Rubbish tabloid MSM stuff, both telly and print.
Something I’ve been on about for more years than I care to name is accommodation for people who are homeless by virtue of having a mental illness and usually a co-morbid substance or other disorder. We need to provide accommodation for them and build in the services they need. It’s cost effective and stops some 75% of people relapsing. We’ve started to do it in a small way in Victoria, but it needs to be nation wide. These are people who need championing, and DSPers.
Mr Squiggle – ACN would have seriously, seriously, seriously (did I mention seriously?) looked at why and how their population distributions that define their weightings were wrong.
If they’re back polling on politics, which is the most scrutinised of their market research, they’d have figured it out. They probably figured it out a while ago – if you were in their shoes and fixed it up a few months back, wouldnt you wait for the budget to splash back into the media?
B. S. Fairman, I’m not sure that anything terribly rational is going on in the LNP as a group, or as individuals, at the moment. Malcolm seems to think he has the superior economic understanding and Nelson is a dolt. A case all too easy to make. Turnbull, OTOH, seems to have alienated a significant number of potential supporters, and then there is the problem of who they actually represent, and therefore, what policies are going to have some appeal, which brings us back to the analysis that Possum is putting forward.
If Turnbull got the leadership in the next month or two, I think he’d be able to hold onto it for at least 12-18 months, and survive quite a few gaffes, if only for the reason that the Coalition would be reluctant to change again so quickly.
THR, but there is still the basic problem that they are trying to hold together…sand?
66 Possum
I’m interested to know more about how the doctors voted in the Federal Election. I never meet GPs but of specialists that I know (only 50 or so MOE huge) I think a little more than 50% would have voted Labor. The “doctor’s wives” were about the same. Lots of them voted Howie in the past. GPs tend to be more conservative as they are really small businessmen as well as doctors.
And an awful lot of both GPs and specialists have voted State Labor recently.
Diogenes, I have a fair amount of exposure to both GPs and specialists, and a fair idea that neither polling or actual election results would tell you what you’re asking. You’re quite right that many GPs operate as small businesses, but many are now employed in franchises owned by, in many cases, overseas companies. It suits them as they can choose to work the hours they want. Specialists, I think would differentiate differently, partly according to specialty, and partly according to motivation to do the speciality
Regarding ACN, isn’t it entirely reasonable to suggest that AC Nielsen picked up a rogue poll as its last poll in 2007?
After all, Newspoll had a rogue poll in the early part of the campaign last year (the 58/42 after the first week) – so was it just bad luck (as opposed to bad methodology) for AC Nielsen last year?
Swing Lowe – it could have, except that it picked up two.
ACN ran two separate polls as their final polls – one was an online poll from their registered online community and the other a standard telephone poll. Both had samples well over 1000 and both produced identical results, both were identically wrong. If it was just one of their polls it could easily be put down as one of those 1 in 20 rogue poll problems – but with two it’s like a 1 in 400 problem which is pretty remote.
Pollsters often have to update their population distribution weights, all of them do it regularly. ACN was just in the unenviable position of having to do it after they election results showed them up.
Morgan suffered the same thing a few years before.
Harry @ 71
I’m sure you are right.
It may interest you to know that the same thing that happened to GPs is now happening to specialists. There is a listed company of ophthalmologists (called Optics or something like that) which controls about 60% of eye specialists on the East Coast. There is an orthopaedic one running now. We’re all being corporatised. I don’t think it’s a good thing for the public as it creates health monopolies and could fix prices. Nicola Roxon doesn’t seem perturbed.
Thanks, Possum.
I’d just like to add something that probably has been noted before (but I’ll repeat it anyway).
Isn’t it amazing that two polls that produce exactly the same headline figures (57/43 TPP) can lead to such divergent strains of media coverage (compare The Oz v Fairfax publications today)?
Whilst the positive news coverage for the Coalition in The Oz may be considered “good” news for them, they face the problem that the negative news coverage for them in the Fairfax publications (SMH and The Age) is read by 8x as many people as those who read The Oz! The poor buggers can’t take a trick!!! 😀
fred @ 38
Is there a reason you don’t name those electorates? Would be interesting to know which ones they were. Have to say in some rural electorates like parkes and Calare i wish the ALP had done worse 😛
zoom @ 42
Same question 😛
Sheesh! Slapped around for the last hour by my sister in law, divorced from brother, about Labor. Salary sacrifice no longer, she says, for a computer. Rort, says I. Education Allowance, if I have this right, is of no help to her inasmuch it will, she claims, not go towards school fees. Parameters to be determined, says I. Other stuff, but my head is hurting.
Sounds like she is complaining, as a supporting parent earning the least money, which she does, is least likely to be able to afford a computer, which she already has, though, courtesy my loan to her, not about me, but this is how it goes (singles contributing, Vera) and whatever else she is talking of, cannot access due to low income and expending already her available monies on the child, music, scouts, you name it. All good, but.
Can anyone help me?
‘Rudd’s Mandarin ‘a boon for Aussie business’
‘PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd’s ability to speak Chinese is opening up trade opportunities for Australian businesses, a survey shows.’
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23730887-2,00.html
Libs might lose their majority of the business vote too if they don’t keep an eye (and ear) on Kev.
77
Crikey Whitey
“Can anyone help me?”
CW, I was able to salary sac a laptop 2 years ago. Seemed crazy at the time as it was for home use with nothing at all to do with my job. Over the last 6 months my employer was preparing to allow us to salary sac our lunches! Yes, we were about receive the opportunity to pay pre tax $s for hot chips, sandwiches, 3 course meals etc. When this was first mentioned I said “If I were Wayne Swan I’d close this rort straight away.” Well, he’s done just that and I applaude the new government. Just imagine well paid workers getting a tax break for food whilst so many needy people go hungry. Disgraceful.
Tell your sister in law that you know this guy Steve K who not only has lost the right to salary sac a laptop but now he can’t even salary sac a case of soft drink. Tell her Steve K is spittin’ post tax chips. Then tell her to shut the f%$k up as there are more needy people in the commumity than her – people like poor old Steve K. 😉
The more funny thing on that page was the line:
Turnbull puts rivals in a state
“MALCOLM Turnbull is reportedly encouraging Liberal leadership rivals to leave and join state politics.” and a link to a story that doesnt expand on it.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23727877-2,00.html
Polling accuracy (before last Nov), as confirmed (or not) by the election, must also include adjustment for whatshisname’s Marcos-like electoral act changes in his last term. I think Peter Brent put the figure at around .7% (could be wrong here) as the loss in 2PP to Labor of these disenfranchised Aussies.
This forgotten fact would account for some of the apparent drop in support on election day. Factor this in (AEC with Labor officially on 52.7%) and it puts Nielsen just a tad closer and Newspoll/Galaxy having overshot the other way.
Morgan had election eve poll with Labor on 53.5 2PP!!!
THR,
If Turnbull got the Liberal leadership, the first thing on the agenda for the Government would be “The Republic”.
Would that split the Libs or what!
Scotty
“fred @ 38
Is there a reason you don’t name those electorates?”
Yes.
Grazie, Steve K. I am attempting to relieve my angst by indulging in the beautiful crap dished out and to by Gordon Ramsay.
This salary sacrifice bizzo, as I understand it, can (or could) actually allow people to be on some kind of pension whilst they are earning a huge salary.
Now, this is not about the sister in law, but. She is on a small salary, works three days at the ATO, governs her earnings by whatever she can get via Family Tax Benefits etc, knows that increasing her working days will result in loss of real income and increased costs for the child, after school hours care and so on. Not to mention time away from the child.
Given the food sac you mention. I had heard of this before….appalled. What next? Salary sacrifice for Alcopops? Not that she drinks very much at all.
Though I wish she would, might help her to relax. And me. I will mention your plight in dispatches, Steve K.
But does she have a point, about the Education Allowance?
78
Vera Says:
‘Rudd’s Mandarin ‘a boon for Aussie business’
‘PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd’s ability to speak Chinese is opening up trade opportunities for Australian businesses, a survey shows.’
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23730887-2,00.html
I am friends with a part-Chinese businessman with ties into the mainland Chinese business community, and he says that Rudd’s Mandarin skills and general knowledge of and interest in China is going down very well in the Chinese community, both here and in China itself, and is generating a lot of respect and interest from them.
If the liberals want to improve their standing in the polls, maybe they could recruit Mark Latham.
The liberals have noone else. He might be a bit loony but he is more competent than Brenda and more experienced than that novice Turnbull. He hates Rudd with a passion. He would end all the in fighting because the party would be sh*tting itself to cross him. And most importantly of all, the MSM (now being a liberal) could accept him as their own.
Imagine the positive headlines – ” Latham to ease the squeeze on working families “. :))
Scotty, yep, same reason I blog under a pseudonym (and I bet you really thought zoom was my name).
Education Allowance – can’t be used for private school fees, goes to excursions, school charges, textbooks, etc. It is designed so that students don’t miss out on these extras just cause they’re from a poor family. If your sister in law is poor enough to receive the EA and is sending her children to a private school, she is VERY aspirational. Tell her to save the dosh and send them to the local public, they’ll get just as good an education.
Thanks Possum for your insight…
I went into the 2007 election period believing AC Neilson had the most credibility of the local pollsters…
…and was stunned by their election eve polling…
I for one would like to know what they have told their major customers about thier election eve result (eg The Age in Melbourne) …Was it just a rougue poll….
I notice that there has been no other post election period where neilson had such a large period of “down time” where they released no polling data…..
what were they doing during the last six months…are there any polls they have chosen to not release?
what adjustments to their sampling technique have they made…if none, what went wrong last time???
If they expect me to have faith in their figures released today, they have another thing coming
Thanks again Possum
What is really stupendous, Centre, and you did not say but maybe unsaid is thinking that Mark Latham may be capable of ‘crossing’ to the other side. It has happened, as we know.
Such an event may end this farcical thing the Liberals have, at this moment, ‘The Leadership Group.’ What idiocy! On the one hand, having Howard as the one and only was dopey in the extreme, but to then resort to a ‘group of leaders’ is equally unworkable.
Take only Nick Minchin’s announcement of Alexander’s imminent retirement. Not announced by Brendan. Renounced by Alexander.
Mark Latham would break an arm if someone did that to him.
Diogenes, you bet you’re patooties on that. The overwhelming thrust of the Howard era was to put money into the private sector, What, I think, finally got up the nose of Rudd, who does not object to the private sector going some service delivery, was the blatant crispy skinned pork that goes to various people in the health sector. In my view, needs as much of a root and branch clean out as tax and welfare.
Crikey
Once upon a time there was a stark divide in our society.
There were individuals who would accept welfare, and there were those who under no circumstances would accept welfare lest it should tarnish their family name, and brand them as unsuccessful and unworthy.
Somewhere along the line things have changed.
These days success is measured by what you can scam out of whomever, for the least amount of work. Bugger the idea that you couldn’t sleep straight in bed at night because you felt guilty for not having done a hard days work.
Along came the baby-boomers, when life became a journey of expenditure, and if you didn’t have enough, well, it was up to the government to provide you with your ‘fair share’.
Ask her if the education allowance is going to save the planet. If you don’t get the right reply then give up, because you’ve got a real live baby-boomer, who would buy extinction of the human race if it was on sale, or had definite ‘growth’ prospects.
zoom at 87
No, zoom, the child goes to a public school. The rave is about public/private in secondary, still a couple of years away. I prefer that the child go to the best locally available public, rather than envisage the fierce costs the sister in law would have to deal with. Which in fact she cannot. She contemplates scholarship to a private school, but apparently even this is financially formidable, as it seems one is charged a rather large amount to even sit a scholarship exam, these days, I guess.
The Education Allowance, thanks for your elucidation. I will discuss with her.
Yep, Onimod.
Between writing, I thought, God Almighty, if there were not all these bits and pieces and invitations to working out best advantage, we might get back to gee, the good old days, when my parents, and his twelve children, locally born, nothing intimated here by the way, received child endowment and this and that. I distinctly remember Dad doing the tax return, claiming whatever was allowable in terms of education costs and whatever, that some of we children went to public schools, some others at various stages, private schools.
Mum and Dad still made the choice, about their aspirations for their kids, balance between what was best and what was affordable, and stuff the Church if it came down to the kids getting a non religious school education. Not that they always chose well, but they chose. They somehow paid. We didn’t go on excursions, we went swimming. For nothing, at the beach. We played tennis, for little cost, at the local square.
Why does everything need to be so expensive? What is wrong with local? I think these aspirations are far more aspirational than need be.
Geez, Onimod, I think you’re being a bit over the top generalisation type response here. I’m nearly sixty, spent most of my life as a single parent, so I was there for my kids, no superannuation till Keating’s reforms, have not a lot in super which has got hammered due to sub-prime crisis. We might make choices like I did that it was more important to spend time with our kids. I personally don’t have any regrets or whinge about the lack of gov’t support, though throughout my life, I’ve had one, (commonwealth scholarship to do Uni. worth $24 a week plus tuition fees (that’s now called a free Uni education) and that’s O.K. because I can look after myself mostly. So, though being a beastly “baby boomer”, I suspect a lot of what is dished up in the MSM about the different generations and their characteristics, has about as much validity as a melting icecream.
I doubt Nelson, Turnbull, Bishop or Hockey will get within a bull’s roar of leading the LNP to government. Lightweights the lot of them.
But I note Costello is still sitting up the back confounding predictions he was off to become the next corporate high flyer. I’m still tipping that he’s just biding his time waiting for the most opportune time to come to the party’s rescue. IMO, it’s no coincidence that the latest Nelson-Turnbull email tiff was leaked via Cossie’s mate!
Harey?
Crikey
I think people can aspire all they like – the cream still rises to the top IMO, regardless of the opportunity afforded to those who belong in the sludge at the bottom.
Character comes from adversity.
Here’s one of my favourites from Kennedy, Rice University speech:
“We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things,
not because they are easy, but because they are hard…”
Somewhere along the line we’ve forgotten to teach ourselves to seek the challenge, and we are poorer for it.
Crikey Whitey – hold horses, I might be getting my EAs mixed up – hate you to get trampled by your sister in law because I misunderstood something. Will get back to you after further research!!
Quite, onimod! I thought of my eldest brother, in my musings, who is now 67, recently made permanent in his personally rewarding and rather well paid position, in an aid organisation, contracts for Federal dollars in assisting the education of Iraqis in civics, who left school at 15, as that was the deal, went to night school to get his accountancy degree.
Suffered, as do we mostly, under the hands over time, within the Public Service.
Well, fine now. As an individual, as respected, as doing a terrific job for those he serves.
Harry
c’mon mate – I’m talking demographically!!!
There are always exceptions, and in fact, it’s the exceptions from the patterns that usually set the definition.
A lot of what’s in the MSM are generalsiations of what is in fact extremely detailed detailed data and interpretation of the generations. It’s extremely powerful stuff. One of the most intelligent people I’ve ever met was a specialist in the field.
I am generalising above, but it’s also generally true. My interest is in the behavioural end of the demography, and in that aspect your reply made me laugh – your generation has a reasonably high penchant for deferring responsibility and claiming ‘it’s not my fault’…
It’s about patterns of groups, not particular people.