US primaries open thread

Been a bit busy lately, so it’s past time for a new US elections thread. Since Super Tuesday we’ve had an anticipated string of Barack Obama victories from caucuses in Nebraska, Washington and Maine and a primary in Louisiana, along with a narrow win for John McCain in Washington and probably meaningless victories for Mike Huckabee in Kansas and Louisiana. Tomorrow US time we have both parties holding primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,263 comments on “US primaries open thread”

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  1. “The POTUS is selected for character, this is a kind of beauty contest, not a job application, in the usual sense. ”

    on Bush snr , Clinton , Bush jnr ???

    is the choice this time a candidate who displays judement (Iraq , Israel & Iran)
    and who displays a balanced new change direction of fairness & inclusiveness

  2. Blindoptimist @ 105
    Good call—you have indeed been watching too much “West Wing”.

    Having lived in the USA for 25 years and still visiting nearly every year, I find it to hard to believe that Obama could overcome the might of its military-industrial complex, the oligarchy of its major corporations and the entrenched hatreds among its ethnic and religious groups.

    For the past 45 years, America has got the duplicitous, warmongering Presidents that it deserves, with the possible exception of the genuine, but seriously unprepared and undermined, Jimmy Carter who was turfed out for the perfect American phony, Ronald Reagan.

    It’s quite likely that Obama is sincere in his desire to improve opportunities for poor and middle class Americans, so why then are poor whites and Latino Democrats sticking with the Clintons, even though they know full well the Clintons are proven liars? Because they would rather be poor and exploited than vote for a biracial leader who makes speeches in cadences sounding like Martin Luther King, which is NOT how their kindly grandfather figure, Ronald Reagan, sounded.

    Americans simply do not deserve to get as intelligent, caring and inspirational a President as Obama might have been. All the same, for their sake and the rest of the world’s sake, let’s hope my perceptions of that sad country are way off the mark.

  3. KR- I’ve come across the origin of a phrase you have quoted before in Colossus-The Rise and Fall of the American Empire. It was FDR’s Secretary of State Cordell Hull who referred to Somoza, dictator of Nicaragua saying “He might be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.” There’s a bit of controversy whether he really said it or whether it actually referred to Trujillo, the Dominican dictator.

  4. On the topic of the apology, did anyone hear Warren Truss huffing and puffing about being insulted at not being allowed to formally address the parliament? Amongst the wheezing and the whining, if you listened closely, you could hear the faint tinkle of the penny dropping as he realised the irrelevance he and his Tory cohorts have been consigned to in opposition.

  5. Apology by as many MPs as possible is required. Provided a majority agree that speaks for the Parliament and the people. Coalition realise they are on a hiding to nothing if they oppose. Arguing that administrators had good intentions is of little help. Of course there were people believing they were doing the right thing. But in a society that had by both government and individual actions reduced Aboriginal people to dispossessed and dislocated paupers in their own country it is easy to say “these people need helping and are worse off living in shanty camps in poverty than being wards of the State, adopted out etc”. The Stolen Generations were a stage several stages in Aboriginal dispossession. Ask ourselves why focus on mixed race kids which is predominately what happened (but not only). Guilt about black/white sexual relation? Eugenics? Lots of other reasons.

    From day one of colonisation Aboriginal and European people have explained and protested the impacts on indigenous peoples. Minority voices in the European population but always there. And until recent years always a big majority of European Australians looking the other way, confused about solutions, not prepared to see that Aboriginal people need serious resources to have a viable community and retain cultures – not just welfare and assistance of a different and usually alien culture.

    Let Truth and Reconciliation be our motto. Some otherwise important people need to take a seat near the rear of the bus and listen carefully.

  6. I’m going to quote this from that article. It sums up what I hate about Billary. Bring on McCain who at least has some common decency and integrity if Billary gets up.

    “Democrats need to recognize this potential gambit for what it is: a cynical, selfish hijacking of the democratic process. Clinton would not be laying the groundwork for this ploy unless it was potentially decisive. And the damage to Democrats (and democrats) would be profound. If Clinton is truly willing to trample so many institutions she professes to care about in pursuit of victory, she will have proven her enemies correct.”

  7. Diogenes at 156
    This is precisely why I prefer Obama to Clinton.

    Its also why many will vote Obama but not vote for Clinton.

    The stealing of Michigan delegates is absolute nonsense and morally indefensible.
    Notwithstanding Hillary breaking her own pledge as well.

    Any candidate who is deceptive with the truth, be it a Democrat like Bill Clinton or a Republican like Karl Rove should be turfed by the electorate (just like Howard).

    This paragraph sums it up best.

    [But neutral observers can’t stand idly by as one campaign openly discusses stealing the nomination at the convention. Democrats need to recognize this potential gambit for what it is: a cynical, selfish hijacking of the democratic process. ]

  8. Glen at 157 – Obama is not Hillary. He would have honoured his pledge.
    If not, then he would deserve to be castigated just as much as Hillary.
    Those who break pledges and are deceptive with the truth, deserve what they get.

    See JWH.

  9. The article also suggests this:
    “The way to address this complaint is to schedule new elections so that candidates can advertise, make speeches, organize voters, distribute yard signs–you know, do “democracy,” a concept Clinton seems not to understand. The DNC, if it does decide to redress Clinton’s complaint, needs to do so immediately.”

    This indicates that it is possible to schedule new elections, which IMHO would be the best scenario.

  10. 161 – It is clearly obvious to all neutral observers that the only fair option at this stage would be relections.

    For Clinton to continue to push to simply receive these delegates (especially Michigan where she was the only candidate named) is simply a corruption of democracy.

  11. Glen @ 101-

    Thank you for reminding me why it is an absolute joy to see the back of the small-minded, ignorant, fear-peddling war mongerers that ruled this land to such detriment for the past 11 years. You simply have NFI.

    I am keeping my children at home tomorrow morning to witness what may well be one of the most significant moments in the social and political modern history of this country.

  12. sorry to get off thread PB’s , but – Honestly!

    RE : Clinton’s dirty tricks. Surley this will only create further support for Obama amongst those who are still backing Hillary as a better bet against the Repugs rather than as their preferred personal choice. She is just reinforcing all the arguments against her over Barack.

  13. The ‘New Republic’ article is pro Obama but is it “balanced” ????

    Isn’t disenfranchisement of voters for any reason unacceptable ?
    2.274 million Democrats DID vote in Michigan & Florida

    At THAT time according to both the Polls & political pundits Clinton was going to win both Primarys heavily. I may not like this reality but it is true.
    (so its a red herring to mention Obama was not on one ticket & didn’t campaign in the other Primary…he was gonna be a big loser in both anyway)

    The Political dynamics have SINCE changed & by March the dynamics would have dratically changed & rescheduled Primarys then are likely to result in a close vote if not an Obama win.

    To be frank , Clinton & Obama both agreed to a poor DNC decision
    Clinton cause she thought she’d win the Nomination without the 2 States and
    Obama cause it was to his advantage to exclude 2 Clinton voting States

    Clinton’s argument now that disenfranchisement is unfair is valid
    Obama’s argument that the DNC decision was independent is also valid

    The problem is the DNC decision may have decided who is the Nominee
    So will any solution now be fair to BOTH Candidates ?

  14. Ron-They both signed pledges to respect the decision. Billary is the one trying to undo yet another bad decision she made. If she wanted them in, she shouldn’t have signed up. I really don’t care what her arguments are now, they are purely self-serving and cynical. She should show some leadership and stick by her own decision, instead of bitching and moaning now that she’s not winning. As has been pointed out, she has just proven that all the reasons people give for hating her are valid.

  15. 153
    Diogenes

    It’s probably one of the most used phrases by Washington to describe it’s various nefarious ‘friends’! No doubt it’s been used more than once!

    On a slightyl different tack, but similar theme, I heard a converstion about Charlie Wilson’s War (I think that’s the title), a film about the CIA and Afghanistan, but what struck me was how ‘fundamentalist’ their dread of ‘communists’ was, and how they ended up spending billions supporting bin Laden just because it was a poke in the eye for those ‘commie bastards’.

    The biggest irony was that the Russians were trying to overturn the fundamentalist’s taking over the government.

    If only they’d just left them alone, how different would the world be now? Think about the sequence of events leading to the Taliban, bin Laden and ultimately 911 and all that has occured as a result of this foolish meddling.

    Talk about ‘blowback’! They’re like children making nitroglycerine!

  16. Yes Ron, but who would have won if the primaries where held when the STATES THEMSELVES originally agreed to hold them? That should, surely, be the fair comparison?

    I don’t actually know the date they were supposed to be held, but since both states moved the date forward one would have to assume that the original later dates would have been (with the benefit of hindsight) more beneficial for Obama.

    I would have to say that if Clinton cannot win a new election her support was pretty transitory and so she has no real claim on the victory.

  17. David ,
    I fully acknowledge that there are many on the conservative side of politics who have wanted to see real reconciliation with Indigeneous Australians : most notably Malcolm Fraser. I am not including these people in my derisive comments. But Glen fits the picture.

  18. 160
    asanque

    Exactly, and note that Edwards and Obama both took their names off the ballot in Michigan where they legally could do so.

    Clinton did not.

    Speaks volumes, very,very loud volumes! LOL

  19. Diogenes , I agree with everything you said

    However her bad decision and her attempt now to recant it does not appease my sense the original DNC decision was intended to be a rap over the knuckles to 2 State managements rather than as is now the case a decisive Nominee breaking decision.

    I wish to separate Hillary from what is now a perceived unfair situation for both Candidates

  20. Who is advising Hillary???
    Surely she has just upped the ante, and increased Obama’s momentum even further with these antics. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot: Game over .

  21. Jen,

    No Jen, it is much more childish than mere opposition to reconciliation. Basically, my reading of Glen’s 101 is he opposes to the Apology because “The Left” wan’t it.

    Thank goodness many on the Conservative side are agreeing with the apology because they see it as a new beginning and a vehicle to deal with indigenous problems as a united people. Maybe we can get it right this time.

  22. 173
    Jen

    Clinton’s crew are firewalling now, saying that Ohio and Texas must go her way and they’re trying to shore up some backstop postiions if they don’t.

    It smells a bit desperate, but that’s exactly what I’ve been predicting, so no suprises from Camp Clinton.

    If Obama can ultimately succeed against Clinton and her machine, then the puerile argument that he has not been tested against the Republicans is then quite silly! If he can beat her, he can beat ANY Republican! LOL

    On the apology, yes, it’s a huge symbolic break with all the small, miserable, suburban solicitor view of the world that Howard foistered on us.

    Good riddance to the mealy mouthed little rodent, and how much fun to see his spawn in opposition, desperately trying to justify their miserable existance.

  23. 163
    Jen – I wouldn’t bother with that, Rudd has crafted his apology so that every school child will be forced to watch a victory for the Left in the Culture Wars being that it will be shown at 9am tomorrow.

    While you are entitled to support an apology others like myself should be just as entitled to not support an apology for every State involved in the forced removals has apologised but more importantly for fear that it will embed victimhood in the psyche of all aboriginals instead of one of defiance, struggle and agency.

    It will also further weaken attempts at trying to solve the problems faced by child abuse in Aboriginal Communities as Rudd will pledge never to remove children from Aboriginals thus only the children will suffer from his remarks.

    Tomorrow aboriginals get the words and we get to keep the money. We’ve just got to get over this ‘Sorry’ business and get on with practical reconciliation for the good of all aboriginals.

  24. GG,
    I’m still trying to count to 10.
    I can’t believe the lack of understanding and empathy that some of my fellow countrymen display when they see images and hear stories of what we have done to an entire nation of people since white settlement.
    It brings back all those feelings of outrage and shame at the meanspirited approach we have lived with for over a decade.
    I cannot begin to understandfhow an aboriginal person must feel when they hear comments such as Glen’s coming from the former leaders of the nation.
    I truly hope Rudd’s actions can start to heal some of the insult that has been heaped upon on the injury we have caused.

  25. 178
    Jen – If the last 11 years were so mean spirited what about the 13 years of Labor before then where there was not a sniff of a Sorry from Hawke or Keating…was that a meanspirited approach???

  26. I’m sorry Jen & Co, I can’t support this view that Clinton is doing anything seriously wrong, Obama’s dirty tricks have been appalling, but he’s getting away with it.
    .
    165 Ron ” The ‘New Republic’ article is pro Obama but is it “balanced” ????
    Isn’t disenfranchisement of voters for any reason unacceptable ?”
    .
    It was Obama’s faction that worked it in the first place. And show me a MSM site that isn’t pro-Obama? (including both Democrat and Republican leaning) I’ve really had to dig deep to find alternate or independent reporting. During our own election campaign we talked a lot on this site about the MSM and analysing its biases etc – but giving credit where credit is due, the Americans have it all over us in their ability to manipulate MSM and totally squashing independent media. They are the Masters of the Art.
    .
    Interesting how thoughtful our comments and questioning, we were with our own media reports, but we swallow whatever comes out of the USA as verbatim “truth”?
    .
    To me, its evidence of a classic textbook Party faction-fight, the more I read about Obama’s dirty tactics since Feb 5, the more I dislike the guy.
    .
    As one Democrat said “I thought this campaign is supposed to be about *hope* and *change* and transcending the old status quo and not playing politics as usual—but Obama relying on unethical tactics, lies, cheap cracks and snide comments is not hopeful, nor original, nor ethical, nor in any way new or transcendent. It sucks. Same old. Same old.”
    .

  27. 175
    Diogenes

    In a shouting match with Bill O’ Reilly, Phil Donahue said about Saddam Hussein what Kristof said about Musharraf: “Saddam was a bastard. But he was OUR bastard, just look at the pictures of Rumsfeld shaking his hand.”

    …it’s one of those apocryphal phrases, and it’s sure had plenty of opportunity to get used!

  28. Glen @ 177
    “for fear of embedding victimhood in the pyche of all aboriginals”.
    Your concern is heart warming indeed, Glen.
    After all it’s not as if they have any reason to fell badly done by now, is there?

    Prat.

  29. Glen, looks like the next call for an apology will come from the Qld Libs after the Member for Gatton,Ian Rickuss (Nat),go stuck into Flegg during question time in the Qld Parliament this morning. Nothing like a good Lib/Nat brawl in the open on the first day.

  30. Jen all the apology is going to do is install a legacy of victimhood for the aboriginals something that will be detrimental to their wellbeing as Noel Pearson has noted repeatedly. Sure those who suffered and were not saved would feel hard done by and they’ve been apologised quite rightly to by all the States.

    Steve, Flegg probably deserved it, anyway Flegg shows why the Liberals are in such a pathetic position in State Queensland politics.

  31. Yes Ron, but who would have won if the primaries where held when the STATES THEMSELVES originally agreed to hold them?

    Rates , who knows and that is the problem

    The original DNC decision under the management of Howard Dean
    (hardly with a rationalpolitical history) of disenchanchising 2 large states I thought was poor and continues to be a ‘fairness’ problem for the WHOLE party

  32. Rain,
    i’m curious as to why you have such a negative view of Obama, but as you say, perhaps I’m jusy not hearing the evidence. This could be (and may well be) due to media bias, although I thought the MSM in the US was heavily weighted to the conservatives.
    Please` enlighten me as to what he is doing that you find so distatseful- So far he appears to be behaving better than Hillary.

  33. Rain,

    Ask yourself this, would Hillary be fighting to get those delegates seated if Obama had won those two states? That’s why people don’t respect her stand in this matter, it’s self-motivated. Whether it’s just politics, or a cheap tactic, it looks like desparation and being a bit of a sore-loser. It’s also a big gamble, Americans generally like winners.

  34. Jen,

    Glen is a serial loser with his predictions, prognostications and that protruding lip. He is simply trying to wind you up.

    Come tomorrow, the Apology will be made with overwhelming support of the Parliament. We then move on to the issues of indigenous health, education and work opportunities as a united nation with (nearly) everyone on the same page.

    Unfortunately, Glen will continue to prattle his mean spirited inanities, but I sincerely hope that he too will see the boorishness of his views in time.

  35. Regarding ABC’s TV coverage of Parliament, it seems they have a 1 hour broadcast from 2pm to 3pm on sitting days, which apparently covers HoR or Senate question time, depending on the day.

    However, there also appears to be a broadcast early the following morning (around 12:30 am). Does anyone know whether this is simply a repeat broadcast of the same question time as shown during the day? Or is it a broadcast of the question time from the other house, which was not shown during the day?

  36. Glen,

    Given that the stolen generation report was tabled until 1997 i would suggest it would have been difficult for the government to have apologised before then.

  37. Yo ho ho, the ALP were in power for 13 years they had more than enough time for a report and to say Sorry and they didnt yet nobody has criticised them.

    Wayaway Howie may not have had a ‘redfern’ but he did make a yell of a speech to Corroboree 2000: ‘Towards Reconciliation’.

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