US primaries open thread

Been a bit busy lately, so it’s past time for a new US elections thread. Since Super Tuesday we’ve had an anticipated string of Barack Obama victories from caucuses in Nebraska, Washington and Maine and a primary in Louisiana, along with a narrow win for John McCain in Washington and probably meaningless victories for Mike Huckabee in Kansas and Louisiana. Tomorrow US time we have both parties holding primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,263 comments on “US primaries open thread”

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  1. A lack of experience KR shows Rudd has given in to left wing academics to apologise to a few thousand children removed from their communities for their safety and well being? Rudd can apologise for those taken for no reason from parents who looked after their children well and were safe within their community. But more aboriginals were saved than harmed by what happened. And there are so few people who can actually prove they were ‘stolen’ and many who lied like Lowitja O’Donoghue who was actually abandoned by her father and placed in the care of a missionary-run home for abandoned and sick Aboriginal children.

    The only person who owes Lowtija O’Donoghue an apology is her father not the Parliament.

    And many other children whose lives were saved owe a debt of thanks to the people who rescued them from mistreatment by aboriginal communities for being half caste. Clearly some small number of cases of forced removal were not necessary and the State Governments have rightly apologised but their was no ‘stolen generation’ it is a myth created by Professor Peter Read at most a few thousand children were affected not 100,000 as put forward by Read thus it could hardly be described a generation.

    John Herron, in 2000 tabled a report in the Australian Parliament that questioned whether or not there ever actually had been a “Stolen Generation”, on the semantic distinction that as “only 10% of Aboriginal children” has been removed, they did not constitute an entire “generation”. Yet despite this only 1 person out of 100,000 could prove to a court they were ‘stolen’ and not for the betterment of the child. Thus it is highly unlikely that 100,000 was the total of removed childen but a far smaller number.

    What experience KR that is to cave in and say sorry and declare that they’ll never remove aboriginal children from abusive communities or from parents who dont look after their children which happens to whites atm. Thanks to Rudd more aboriginal children will suffer from his apology than would have otherwise been the case had it not want to reignite the history wars KR.

    Also Rudd’s lack of experience has been illustrated where he has invited two separate aboriginal elders to make two separate welcoming ceremonies in Parliament tomorrow and Wednesday because they cant come up with just one tribe. The US tried to exterminate the American Indians and they apologised rightly for their crimes but they never had American Indians welcoming white people to ‘their’ land during a session of Congress.

    The trouble with this sorry business is that no body is allowing dissent and anybody who agrees with practical reconciliation not symbolic reconciliation is then called racist or a redneck. The aboriginals dont need an apology to cement in their already sad and depressing existence a permanent history of victimhood that will not serve them any benefit in the future.

    Finally all that needs happen is one Liberal MP to vote against the motion and it will not be on behalf of the Parliament and only of the Labor Government. Lota right wing MPs from WA and QLD who dont want a bar of this symbolic reconciliation.

  2. Glen: I’m sure the aborigines are glad to have yourself speak on their behalf. You must be grinding your teeth at the Liberal party including both your leader and next most likely leader wholeheartedly supporting the apology.

    Rudd has already done more things to heal this nation in 2 months then Howard did in 10 years.

  3. 100
    Ron

    My post was really in answer to Glen’s wonderful analysis based on the word ‘experience’!

    I think you’ll find it was deeply ironic if you go back and read both.

  4. Lol ron i was thinking that as i wrote it. Sad thing is George Bush, Bill Clinton and George Bush are the only presidetns ive seen in my life.

  5. I am starting to see Obama as a reverse Reagan. RR’s basic political strength was his ability to make Americans feel good at about themselves and their country at the same time. He was a great crooner. So great that he honeyed up to post-Vietnam/ post-Nixon/ post-Iran/ post-Oilshock Americans and revoked the New Deal democratic majority.

    Obama’s “Yes. We can.” is as evocative and irresistable as Reagan’s “It’s morning in America.” The message is an elixir to all those who feel used, tricked, abused or otherwise dudded, upbraided, reproved, excluded or denied by the nasty, moralising, hypocritical neocon hacks that have come to dominate the theatre that passes for politics in America.

    Americans have many susceptibilities. They are not shy about them, and why should they be. They want to trust their governments, identify with their politicians, pursue their material dreams, be openly inspired, celebrate their manifest nobility, pay less tax and talk, talk, talk all about it.

    As well, Americans like to invest their Presidents with almost mystical powers, and, some might say, with good reason: there have been some gems among the grit. While there is no need to name these Presidents, Americans – taught to believe that anyone can become POTUS – know that a really great President can transcend the petty, the personal and the cycnical. They have reason to trust in hope, democracy and the possibilties of change.

    I think Obama will win everything and could change America. (Or have I been watching too much West Wing?)

  6. I’m actually quite happy at the way Rudd is systemically dismantling Howard’s flawed policies one by one. Unfortunately there are a stack of flawed policies.

    Maybe if the current Libs don’t do anything too stupid like maintain their right wing conservative dogma from the Howard days, they may become electable again in a decade or so.

  7. Asanque we didnt need healing during the 80s and early 90s with Keating and Hawke who never said Sorry so why do we need it now?? Just for Rudd to say he’s done something other than whinge about having a multi billion dollar surplus and having to control inflation at 3% boohoo! All Rudd is going to heal is the back pockets of aboriginals some of whom may see this apology as a chance for a quick buck. This apology is just for aboriginals not for the rest of the country IMHO and fine we lost the election and we tories have to sit here and take it like Marcellus Wallace in Pulp Fiction.

    The aboriginals have been apologised by all the States who were responsible for the removals so really since that has occurred i dont see the need for a national apology. My only hope is Rudd doesnt get duped by the left wing academics who have called for a National Sorry Day holiday that would just be a joke.

    Rudd can say Sorry, but half of the country doesnt feel sorry for what happened when many more children were saved than stolen. Many aboriginal children should be removed from abusive communities but we’re too gutless to save these kids from such a rotten existence because we’re worried that left wing academics will say we’re ‘stealing them’ when if they were white we’d have childrens services over to take them away in a flash what hypocrisy.

    My only joy this week on QT will be watching Swan flounder from double broadsides as Nelson and Turnbull sink him for good i almost pity him….nah i dont LOL!

  8. Ron its already been done its just drum beating from Rudd and the left, if all the States have said Sorry and they were responsible why do we need a Federal Sorry?

  9. Lets make a quick list:
    1. Ratify Kyoto – tick
    2. National apology – tick
    3. Haneef case – dismissed – tick
    4. Withdrawal from Iraq – Work in progress
    5. Dismantle workchoices – Work in progress
    6. Review and dismantle citizenship test – Work in progress

    Has Australia changed for the worse through this variety of symbolic and worthwhile policies?

    Of course not, that was merely the fearmongering of the Howard days.

    Was a national apology high on my list of Rudd’s apology. No.
    However, it does not harm, no compensation is linked to it, and puts an end to a sorry saga.

    Do these items in the above list make Australia a better place?

    I argue yes.

  10. and work in progress re laps & high speed internet in the class rooms Asanque

    Glen because in Aboriginal culture an ‘elder’ is a revered ‘leader’ and they regard the PM as the number one ‘elder’ of all white Australians

    and further , Aboriginal Affairs became seriously a National responsibility at least since the 1967 Referendum

  11. Ron why should two aboriginals be asked to Welcome the Members of Parliament to Canberra once is bad enough, twice just looks pathetic really i mean get with the program he’s been made to look foolish for inviting two people to do it because some aboriginals didnt like who was to do it on Wednesday they complained and now the other tribe gets to do Tuesday what a joke!

    Yes but Ron that was after the removals not during and not before thus the apology from Rudd is purely symbolic it means nothing because the States who removed the children have already said Sorry, i guess some Aboriginals like hearing the word a bit too much.

    Can the Aboriginals who run the Tent Embassy be given to the count of 10 after 9am Wednesday to leave the lawns of the Old Parliament House now that Rudd’s said Sorry please let it be so!

  12. 85 Diogenes, well I was always a little suspicious about Diana’s death in Paris 🙂
    Less than 6 kms from a major hospital, the ambulance was 20 minutes late in getting there, and stopped twice on the way back? They sure took their time that night…

    Clearly – you have not lived in Paris.

    I could tell you a lovely little story about a young lady crossing the road just down from my place and across from the local cafe, the unexpected impact of a speeding ambulance sending a woman into a full spin and landing on the road in front of siad ambulance. I could mention that the driver and the assistant did the right thing and delivered effective emergency care, took her over to the cafe and paid for the a short black. I could note that the driver was apologetic, the assistant was all smiles and helping out with total professionalism, the attentiveness and charm of the waiters, and the cheers from the customers as the ambulance departs. But I won’t go into all of that – because you have to live in Paris before you understand Paris.

  13. To sum it up, the right wing conservatives of Howard and Bush had their time in the sun after 2001. 2001 was their time, because right wing conservatives peddle fear, perfect in the post 2001 climate, whereas left wing liberals peddle hope.

    The right wing conservatives proceeded to do incalculable damage to the world diplomatically and economically and their greatest flawed legacy is the disastrous illegal foray into Iraq. Countless billions have been wasted in this pointless war, which has increased terrorism worldwide and this money could have been spent on far more worthwhile ventures. This has been compounded with a complete failure to recognise the dangers of climate change.

    Only now is the world realising the immense harm that was done due to fear, shortsighted and selfish neoconservative policies.

    Its not surprising that the people turned to Rudd and Obama, who have shown an inclination to lead to make this world a better place, not just for this generation but for future generations. Do all actions require a tangible benefit? Let us not be remembered by future generations as the selfish generation.

    The right wing conservatives had their chance, and we are reaping the bitter harvest. Unfortunately, both Rudd and likely Obama will be left trying to fix the many mistakes of their predecessors.

    Is hope better then fear?

    I leave that to you.

  14. Glen , there is not just one aboriginal tribe hence the two representatives

    The fundamental flaw in ‘howardism’ was a ‘winner take all’ policy approach linked to the political wedge

    so in aboriginal affairs the wedge was ‘no sorry’ it was not our generation and the implication all were taken for their own good and few maybe nil others,

    rather than say huge numbers were ALSO forcibly taken for ‘race’ reasons
    and to apologise

    aborigines were left with no choice but to use a reverse wedge & ignore those taken for their own health care….
    all ‘howardism’ supporters have been caught in a wedge of their OWN making
    (Hence Nelson’s current problem)

    it is semantics to argue over the word ‘ generation’ when clearly an apology is warranted by our National leader for massive numbers of aborigines forcibly taken

  15. Ron there is no evidence of children been taking for being ‘black’ but because half caste children could have been harmed by aboriginal communities and so were removed for their own safety.

    There never was a ‘Stolen Generation’, Rudd should simply apologise to those kids removed not for their own safety but removed from loving caring homes these aren’t a whole Generation though. Rudd is caught up in the Left’s aboriginal agenda oh well…

    Ron there is no evidence of anything like 100,000 maybe 10,000 but probably 5-10,000 at the most, hardly a Generation! And of that alot were saved than ‘stolen’!

  16. 115
    asanque
    Is hope better then fear?

    absolutely , which is why voters are flocking to an Obama win:
    internationally the ‘right’ have us in
    fear of terrorism they have worsened
    in fear of nuke Iran an unpredictable enemy
    in fear of where the disintergration of Iraq will lead
    in fear of making Hamas non entity
    in fear that oil is in the hands of US supported Despots
    in fear that climate change is before our eyes whilst US Oil Companies support Bush in denial of CC

    and domestically
    in fear that the wage conditions must be in dividually negotiated with a boss who holds all the cards without any saferty net

    in fear that social justice & equity should we individually fall on hard times are
    dispensible against the theory of survival of the wealthiest

  17. Glen, two reps is fine for ACT ‘country’ – listen to the ‘Welcome to Country’ openings that are held there, its briefly alluded to in the film ‘Jindabyne’.
    .
    As asanque @ 111 says, it “does no harm” and may well do a lot of good, giving a symbolic starting point as kind of “closure”, from which we can move forward, like the rituals associated with funerals and memorial services, there is no harm in symbolic gestures and can be powerful for healing.
    .
    Raising of the flag on ANZAC Day is a symbolic gesture, the minute’s silence, and all of that pomp & pageantry, is just symbolic meaningless ritual. I was one of the anti-Vietnam war protest generation, and still think that “One Day of the Year” is just silly patriotic jingoism — but for many Aussies, its very important symbolically and metaphorically. I RESPECT that, even if I don’t agree with it. For Vietnam vets to be recognised was a symbolic ritual act, and *important* for those personally affected by it. Whether I supported the govt of the day doing it or not is beside the point, if I thought it meant anything practical or not, is beside the point – I can still give RESPECT in that it was an *important* symbolic act for *them*, after all – it “does no harm”, certainly not to me personally, and I can opt out of participating if I didn’t agree with it.
    .
    To me Glen, I figure you must have little or no RESPECT for others. If many Indigenous (and non-Indigenous) Australians feel they need a national gesture in order to find some measure of closure, and welcome it, and are looking forward to participating in it, even as an observer in Melbourne’s Federation Square, along with Perthites even getting up early to watch it live from their city centre, and so on – *sigh* – I give up, I suggest you try to get over it Glen, find a good book to read, or take the dog for a walk.
    .

  18. On the superdelegates question – there is an interesting piece by Ted Devine in the new York Times speaking from the 1984 experience on how superdelegates play out. The scenario he paints is something close to what most of us would consider to be the right thing to do – that is that superdelegates move the the nominee with the broadest support for the voting community. Unlike ’84, superdelegates have been coming out in greater numbers supporting this or that candidate – and for the most part this is what Ted is arguing against in his piece. I guess the bottom line is that these superdelegates for the most part will face the electorate sometime soon and that will be on the top of the list of three things they think about (i.e. facing the public). The other two will be risk analysis on the potential damage from the Clinton machine (what if Clinton wins), and secondly polls on best candidate for a Democrat victory (my role in the party).

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/10/opinion/10devine.html?scp=2&sq=superdelegates+1984&st=nyt

  19. Aparently Bush is not supporting Obama.

    “I certainly don’t know what he believes in,” Bush told FOX’s Chris Wallace. “The only foreign policy thing I remember he said was he’s going to attack Pakistan and embrace Ahmadinejad. I think I commented that in a press conference when I was asked about that.”

    Am I correct in assuming that we can call this a double-negative-endorsement?

  20. Aparently Bush is not supporting Obama.

    “I certainly don’t know what he believes in,” Bush told FOX’s Chris Wallace. “The only foreign policy thing I remember he said was he’s going to attack Pakistan and embrace Ahmadinejad. I think I commented that in a press conference when I was asked about that.”

    Am I correct in assuming that we can call this a double-negative-endorsement?

  21. davidoff @ 120, thnx for that, its a more potted version of some of the cross-fire gossiping I’ve been trawling through from internal Dem Party conversations tonight.
    .
    I’ve learned a lot of stuff I never knew from all this gossip. Signs of widespread grief amongst the ground-troops over so many super-delegates declaring so early, as mentioned in davidoff’s link. The “deep division” of the Dems in the 1980 election between Carter and Kennedy, (which caused them to lose that election), there are some fears its happening again.
    .
    Some conflict across grass-roots Party activists about the open versus closed status as well, some don’t like the idea that Independents can potentially have such a big say in it. One state used to have closed secret-ballot primaries, but the Republican state legislature pushed it to become an open caucus and have then stacked them with Independents as Republican “plants”.
    .
    Is that sort of thing vaguely akin to what we call “branch-stacking”?
    .

  22. Bush not supporting Obama? sounds to me like the Repubs desperately want Obama, like the brer rabbit syndrome, oh no, not the briar patch!

  23. asanque 115.

    I go for hope, any day. It is my refrain.

    Others on this site express the same. We know, as we do, that hope, for all we want, is eventually not as full as we would wish, as changing circumstances make it so.

    The now Opposition (Australia, I intend) is continuing its business of dashing hope, ideals, ideas. I suppose they would. After all, they offered nothing resembling hope. Then and now.

    Maybe they don’t understand. Not that I care what they do or do not.

    I was particularly appalled by Tony Abbott regarding the apology, ‘the more perceptive indigenous’ I cannot quote in full or even if that is exact, but you will get my drift.

    Yet, hope exists, it seems to have a short flair, but it is at least to me, wow and ever welcome!

  24. DC, Maryland, and Virginia: 9.2% of the game
    While nobody seems interested in polling the District of Colombia (15 bound delegates), we have have the mainstream pool residing in Maryland (70) and Virginia (83). The Obama projections suggest DC will fall his way 58/42 and Maryland polls put Obama ahead of Clinton by 53/35. In the meantime Clinton camp have have been focusing attention on Virginia (last projections at 53/37 for Obama) . All up we have three states on the East Coast and you have to throw into this the fact that Virginia is like real close to Maryland and Maryland is like real close to the District of Columbia and DC is bumping up hard against New Jersey, and that’s just a train ride to downtown New York. Thing is – if Obama sweeps these three states (and on my numbers this is a probably) – we have a scenario where new boundaries are being drawn on the Clinton brand.

    Out of the three – Virginia is the one to watch. The Clinton team are putting a lot of effort into this state as a part of a turning-the-tide initiative – but at the same time the Clinton team is in a state of disorganization and blog activity is reflecting clinical depression. But that’s not all – Hawaii and Wisconsin are coming up (19 Feb) and on my calculations suggest both will fall to Obama – leading to a winning streak covering Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Virgin Islands, Maine, DC, Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii and Wisconsin. This is the stuff that creates the ‘Big Mo’ and this has context when we cast a forward eye on Ohio (141 delegates) and Texas (193 delegates and a state where carbon dating is something that mothers explain to teenage daughters), not to mention Pennsylvania with 151 delegates – and keeping in mind that as we speak the immediate delegate count is for all practical purposes neck and neck (i.e. given swings and roundabouts its a free for all).

    But what if there is a thumping in the coming couple of days. What if the Obama message has gone beyond the outside chance and what if there is a majority that are thinking ‘yes we can’. What if this election is based on the recognition of the reality of past betrayals by the elected representative, what if its about measure of trust in a transformative figure, about hope, about the question of when the USoA can be better that what it has been? What if a big majority stand up on 12th of February and say they want to be proud to call themselves Americans? Do we dare to hope?

    Yes we can.

  25. Glen’s hero, Me-Me Nelson, acts decisively.
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/cartoons/

    Ron at 100, 4U.
    “Scotty , no Bush is never a good example to quote when advancing a rational argument !”
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AsjqqpuqmGmVStYtJJE5I2tX_b4F

    New Kid On The Block:
    Since he burst out the woodpile, he won’t sit up-back of the bus, he’s cashed-up, he’s uppity, High Darktown’s not good enough for him anymore, he wants to live in a White House, his live schtick is dynamite and he’s wearin’ some kind of perfume that drives all the women crazy!

    Beltway……we have a problem.
    http://news.yahoo.com/comics/uclickcomics/20080207/cx

  26. Obama’s state experience doesn’t matter when it comes to being thought of as Presidential material – only his federal experience does – and that experience is pretty brief.

  27. #132

    Based on a little digging into the records at the Library of Congress (and some digging by someone called rafael)…

    During Obama’s first eight months he sponsored over 820 bills. He introduced 233 regarding healthcare reform, 125 on poverty and public assistance, 112 crime fighting bills, 97 economic bills, 60 human rights and anti-discrimination bills, 21 ethics reform bills, 15 gun control, 6 veterans affairs. In his first year in the U.S. Senate, he authored 152 bills and co-sponsored another 427. These included the Coburn-Obama Government Transparency Act of 2006, the Lugar-Obama Nuclear Non-proliferation and Conventional Weapons Threat Reduction Act, the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act, the 2007 Government Ethics Bill, and the Protection Against Excessive Executive Compensation Bill. All up … Obama has written 890 bills and co-sponsored another 1096 since entering the senate.

  28. 133
    davidoff

    All this ‘experience’ stuff is twaddle. The POTUS is selected for character, this is a kind of beauty contest, not a job application, in the usual sense. And from where I sit, there’s a marked edge to Obama on this vital question.

    In this, of all years, the yearning for someone who transcends the grime, shows moral courage, and has impeccable credentials to uphold the true liberal values without selling out to vested interests is where the bar is set.

    Clinton, for all her fine qualities and experience, just does not inspire in this way, has a lot of baggage and is unpopular with many in way Obama is not. Read the polls, a lot of people of both parties do not like her. On the other hand, Obama’s negatives are considerably lower in those same polls.

    And despite what Clinton’s campaign manager says, Obama is still ahead on beating McCain.

  29. Oh jeez, Shanahan reports today that Nelson’s grip on leadership is shaky, what a circus, I’ve got money on him being gone by June. It’s almost enough to make you feel SORRY for the Libs (not bloody likely).

  30. KR @ 135, I’m with you, and with blindoptimist @ 105 on this one. Nobody cares about experience or other similar twaddle for POTUS.
    .
    Blindoptimist, I have seen others comment about the strong resemblance of Reagan by Obama, but I think you said it best about Reagan/Obama ” …his ability to make Americans feel good about themselves and their country at the same time. He was a great crooner….. Obama’s “Yes. We can.” is as evocative and irresistable as Reagan’s “It’s morning in America.”
    .
    Maybe thats part of the explanation for the baby-boomer demographic preference for Clinton? An attitude of having been there, done that, bought that T-shirt?

  31. 138
    Rain

    It’s a hard call for all the Clinton fans, but I think they’d vote Obama over McCain anytime. Besides, in policy Obama and Clinton aren’t that far apart, but in style and character, well…I think they have clear differences.

  32. 121- Davidoff – Great response by Obama
    [An Obama spokesman replied that the senator “doesn’t need any foreign policy advice from the architect of the worst foreign policy decision in a generation”.]

  33. “we tories have to sit here and take it like Marcellus Wallace in Pulp Fiction.”

    No you don’t Glen, we have a new government now with a different set of values, no-one has to “take it” anymore, but of course if that is what rings your bell go ahead.

    My only hope is ………………. for a National Sorry Day holiday.

    I agree, perhaps it could replace the Queens birthday holiday, we won’t need this when we become a republic.

  34. I think the “Ramos-Horta expected to make a full recovery story” is a bit premature. I’m concerned that Royal Darwin Hospital doesn’t have a specialist cardiothoracic surgeon, given that an injury to his right lung is the main problem. Don’t know if they’re up to doing a lobectomy (removal of part of lung) if necessary. There are also many late complications from this kind of injury with infection around the lung which can be difficult to treat. He’s not out of the woods yet.

  35. “Ron there is no evidence of children been taking for being ‘black’ but because half caste children could have been harmed by aboriginal communities and so were removed for their own safety.”

    Glen, your ignorance is astounding. Yes, the policy (particularly as practices in WA under RA Neville) was directed at “half-caste” children. But the motive was racist eugenics not humanitarianism. They wanted to “breed the blackness out”. No doubt they also thought they were doing these kids a favour by doing so – by bringing them into “civilisation”, albeit as domestic servants.

  36. KR @ 140, of course the Clinton supporters would, they might whinge and carry on like pork chops about it, but they would do their duty like good Democrats. A few might opt out, but not enough to make a difference.
    .
    Can’t say the same for Obama supporters if the sitrep is reversed though, they are far more likely to defect or opt out in large numbers.
    .

  37. 146 Robert Bollard says:
    “Glen, your ignorance is astounding.”

    No Robert, don’t forget he is a tory, ignorance is par for the course!

  38. why do people get so bothered about Glen?? when he was the mouthpiece for the government he was semi-relevant, now he is totally irrelevant. Hell hath no fury like a Tory scorned…

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