US primaries open thread

Been a bit busy lately, so it’s past time for a new US elections thread. Since Super Tuesday we’ve had an anticipated string of Barack Obama victories from caucuses in Nebraska, Washington and Maine and a primary in Louisiana, along with a narrow win for John McCain in Washington and probably meaningless victories for Mike Huckabee in Kansas and Louisiana. Tomorrow US time we have both parties holding primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,263 comments on “US primaries open thread”

Comments Page 22 of 26
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  1. OK Finns –
    trouble is Condi might be just a tad associated with GWB in the mind of the electorate. And it would appear that he and his government are as popular as
    JWH would be at an aboriginal corroborree right now.
    So, nuh.

  2. Ah, read my lips (did someone once say? oh yeah, no new taxes! LOL) Finn: Condi is a flake. And let’s not forget as National Security Advisor she actually forgot to adivse Dubbya that Osama bin Laden was on his way.

    Condi would end up rice crackers in a few blistering microwave seconds.

    But nice try.

  3. #1051 – I saw a photo of JWH playing the sitar in an Indian restaurant at Wollstencraft. He’s on the journey of discovery. Gotta love that man.

  4. 1051
    jen

    We seem to be on the same wavelength this evening! LOL

    By the way, what was all that stalking about, with ESJ the other day? Sorry, but I must have missed a lot of the preceding stuff, but it seemed…ah, how should I say it? Weird.

  5. 1058
    jen

    ah, yes, ‘discord’, something that seems to be his constant aura. Glad you sorted him, it’s so much nicer around here without the discord.

  6. Question 1:

    Is Condi lesb.an?

    Statement 1:

    Ye of little faith Adam, Hilary may still win or draw Wisconsin in which case the Obama as victor thing is moot!

  7. KR- We did comment on the Maharishi Mahesh Yogi. I believe he was Hindu and they believe in reincarnation so he’s another sentient being now. It’s been a bad year for religious leaders with Hinckley also going. I’m expecting Billy Graham next. In my bet with ESJ, I’m regretting not including Steve Fossey, as he was declared officially dead today, although he’s been missing for six months or so.

  8. For those enamoured of McCain, here’s one of those really good bits of journalism redolent of personal history and experience, a good ear for the political cadence and a good eye for glaringly out of place:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/17/opinion/17rich.html?hp

    I really liked this little anecdote, as it says so much about what has changed to allow a campaign like Obama’s to have resonance in Virginia, and the nation:

    Here’s one of my memories. In 1970, Linwood Holton, the state’s first Republican governor since Reconstruction and a Richard Nixon supporter, responded to court-ordered busing by voluntarily placing his own children in largely black Richmond public schools. For this symbolic gesture, he was marginalized by his own party, which was hellbent on pursuing the emergent Strom Thurmond-patented Southern strategy of exploiting white racism for political gain. After Mr. Holton, Virginia restored to office the previous governor, Mills Godwin, a champion of the state’s “massive resistance” to desegregation.

    Today Anne Holton, the young daughter sent by her father to a black school in Richmond, is the first lady of Virginia, the wife of the Democratic governor, Tim Kaine. Mr. Kaine’s early endorsement of Mr. Obama was a potent factor in his remarkable 28-point landslide on Tuesday.

    …that’s a mighty good story, and mighty strong message.

  9. Ah Diogenes, death row inmates and presumed dead dont count, I am sure you would relish a proper contest involving a rational assessment of the probabilities of death and not a walk-up start. It just wouldnt be sporting to nominate Chemical Ali for instance.

  10. 1062
    Diogenes

    yep, definitely one of the eternally reincarnated.

    By the way, speaking of departures, have they switched off Sharon yet, or is he still technically ‘with us’?

  11. ESJ
    what the F does it matter re: Condi’s sexual preferences??
    She is a war-mongering neo-con. Who she has sex with is hardly relevant.

  12. Steve Fossett isn’t dead, he’s just gone to that place where billionares go when they stop spending money, no doubt he (or his estate) is still making it.

  13. Jen,

    With the exception of the Australian Greens of course, I believe conservative parties generally are more inclined to accept people who do not conform to a whitebread hetro formula, eg Ted Heath in the UK and William McMahon in Australia.

    In the US it is interesting that the Republicans are regarded as running against god,g.ys and guns yet are open to circumstances at odds with that stance.

    BTW – using adjectives to suggest a concluded outcome is poor form.

  14. An interesting bit of trivia, given his relentless pursuit of records, Steve Fossett made his money initially through an investment company called Marathon Securities.

  15. ESJ- Did you know that it is statistically safer to be a death row inmate than a US President? There’s a couple of guys in Gitmo who will be lucky to see the year out. Will you accept the offer of a point if Billary gets up over Bami in exchange for a point to me for each TX, OH, PA primary Bami wins?

    KR- Sharon’s stubbornly hanging in there. He’s on both of our lists so he won’t be a deal-breaker.

  16. 1069 ESJ
    “With the exception of the Australian Greens of course, I believe conservative parties generally are more inclined to accept people who do not conform to a whitebread hetro formula, eg Ted Heath in the UK and William McMahon in Australia.”

    Que?

    “In the US it is interesting that the Republicans are regarded as running against god,g.ys and guns yet are open to circumstances at odds with that stance.”

    That, my friend , is called Hypocricy. And yes, the Republicans are renowned for it.

  17. No Diogenes I think the focus should be purely on clinical death.

    Can I recommend:

    Life after death: The art of the obituary by Nigel Starck
    The Dead Beat and the pleasure of perverse obituaries by Marilyn Johnson

  18. Finnigan Plural at 1050, have you fully considered the ramifications of Princess Sparkle Pony being on Condi’s case should Johnny Bomb-Bomb hook up with her as his Veep?
    http://sparklepony.blogspot.com/2008/02/condi-and-barbara-boxer-probably-not.html
    Condi’s already a badly Bush-soiled war shillstress in the eyes of the electorate.
    And check out the respective body languages and stump performances of the two African Americans.
    Obi, he got rhythm, baby, he smooth. The Kid can get down. Condi ain’t got the moves, she don’t dance. Ambulates like a plank, talks like a duck.
    And if you don’t think voters notice stuff like this, I refer you to the JFK v RMN telly debates in 1960. Tricky Dicky looked like a bum and went on to get duly walloped at the polls. Lotta smart pundits reckoned it was the defining difference that launched Camelot.

    Appearances seem to matter much more to Sep electors than they do to us.

  19. 1080
    jaundiced view

    1080 is a toxic post! LOL

    JV, we’ve all ‘uploaded’, ahem, in some interesting places, is what I meant!

  20. 1083
    jen

    Did you notice the tag line:

    I keep track of Condoleezza’s hairdo so you don’t have to.

    ..ta boom!

    (yeah, I know, it’s sexist referring to her appearance, but really, the crappola the woman talks is just so bleedin’ irritating. Having the Grinning Chimp mangle English is one thing, but then for Condi to go around trying to explain what it was he was trying to say is just so…so, so damned annoyingly futile!)

  21. Adam #1013
    “So, does the US intervene unliterally or not in Darfur ? That would mean a war with Sudan, a confrontation with the Arab League and the Muslim world generally

    but the US RIGHT NOW
    have a confrontation with the Muslim world generally !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Have you got any other “reasons” to justify the US not stopping the genocide ?
    other than the truth , there are no US oil or strategic interests in the Sudan !

  22. jen, you had a little exchange with the wonderfully tolerant and gracious ESJ about a person’s sexuality not being relevant to their politics, and he tried to say that consevatives are so much more accomodating.

    Let me remind you of a little crack that McCain made ten years ago:

    “Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly?
    Because her father is Janet Reno.”

    The joke may be crude, but it pales in comparison with the published details surrounding the presidential sex scandal. McCain’s two-liner conveys some interesting insights into what he considers humorous (lesbianism, a young woman’s physical appearance), particularly since it was delivered to a Republican crowd. Remember, this is the party that champions pro-family values.

    …so, let’s keep in mind the good Senator’s history of personal insults delivered in public, eh?

  23. Ron – A fair point – intervention – even invasion – by the US is OK by it as long as the US has its own interests involved, but if saving hundreds of thousands from violent death is the reason, excuses about the reaction of other nations, or the lack of UN support, is relied on to opt out.

    Of course the US should not invervene unilaterally anywhere. Ideally there would be UN approval, and the main reason there isn’t is the lack of political and moral authority of the US now, because of its neo-con antics. Other members of the Security Council such as China veto with impunity.

    The US needs an Obama to change its policy and attitude on just about everything in foreign affairs in order to get its moral authority back. With the neo-cons buried it can take a leadership role again, work to get the UN functioning in a more positive atmosphere, and bring the mass of other nations with it if the UN Security Council falls short (not just pathetic little toady Coalitions of the Willing) to protect the world’s weak, like the people of Darfur.

    Roll on Barack – the world needs YOU! (Well, world needs something F*ing different, and Barack just could make a difference – none of the others will.)

  24. Tories have always accommodated homosexuality as long as its firmly closeted, as it was with McMahon and Heath. That’s thye public school tradition after all. But I would have thought the example of Penny Wong was somewhat more significant.
    BTW I heard tell anecdotally that McMahon’s ALP opponent in the Lowe contest in 1972 was an early gay activist and draft dodger whose slogan was “I have my eye on Billy’s seat”.

  25. 1088
    Ron

    It’ll be interesting to see how they do it, especially since Obama has outed himself on some youthful indiscretions already. The problem for the Republicans is that Clinton’s already trying to do him over, and failing, so come their turn, what are they going to do, say he’s ‘black’?

    OMG, that’s going to scare the bejesuz outta all da white folks!

    We await with quivering expectations the mighty Rovean attack machine (oh, that’s right, Rove has slunk off to do TV commentary!) letting loose on Obama.

  26. 1093
    The Finnigans

    Do you mean the one you play with in the bath? Or what?

    Just out of curiosity, tell me what the Republicans can say when the overwhelming majority of the population wants out of Iraq, thinks the country is headed to hell in a handbasket, and has seen nothing but endless corruption and scandles in the Republican party these last 7 years?

    Oh, all that is Obama’s fault? Come on, you can fool some of the people some of the time, but this time, the gig is up, and ‘swiftboating’ now has a very bad reputation. Furthermore, the guy they need to knock off has an uncanny knack of rising above it and looking even more presidential.

    There’s a time and a tide, and sorry, but the swiftboats have missed it.

  27. touche …..“I have my eye on Billy’s seat”.

    The Finnigans ,
    but you would expect the moderate Repugs like Ann Coulter , Shaun , and
    Bill O’Reilly to refrain wouldn’t you ?

  28. and is “Obama ‘the most left wing Candidate the Democrats could have found”
    as Adam has asserted but not supported with policy examples

    or is itthe “most left wing” to wish US ME policy to be more balanced , given the ‘hawkish’ policy has failed ?

  29. There are more homosexual conservatives because they don’t actually need physical sex to reproduce, rather they bud off like fungi which then grows into a new republican provided it is in placed in the growth environment of a suit. This is also why all republicans are clones of the same old crusty white guy.

  30. It’s bond insurance, and it’s big, and it’s the next thing to watch.

    The Credit Default Swap market, since 2000 has ballooned from $900 billion to more than $45.5 trillion — roughly twice the size of the entire United States stock market.

    Commercial banks are among the biggest participants — at the end of the third quarter of 2007, the top 25 banks held credit default swaps, both as insurers and insured, worth $14 trillion, up $2 trillion from the previous quarter.

    JPMorgan Chase, with $7.8 trillion, is the largest player; Citibank and Bank of America are behind it with $3 trillion and $1.6 trillion respectively.

    …and the most important thing to realise about it is that there is no regulation, and literally nobody has any clue where the IED’s are buried or what chain reaction might be set off by a small implosion somwhere. Given the distress in other areas of the financial markets, the chances are very high that some accident will occur in this market, and there are some very big players with some very big chips in the game.

    Stay tuned, subprime may have just been the warm-up act.

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