US primaries open thread

Been a bit busy lately, so it’s past time for a new US elections thread. Since Super Tuesday we’ve had an anticipated string of Barack Obama victories from caucuses in Nebraska, Washington and Maine and a primary in Louisiana, along with a narrow win for John McCain in Washington and probably meaningless victories for Mike Huckabee in Kansas and Louisiana. Tomorrow US time we have both parties holding primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,263 comments on “US primaries open thread”

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  1. Robert Bollard 1090

    The ALP candidate for Lowe in 1972 is very much alive, has children and grandchildren and was a former chief judge of a superior court in NSW.

    You might withdraw your post.

  3. 1101

    RB may might be confused with the independent:

    Marcus Aussie-Stone stood 15 times for the House and once for the
    Senate between 1972 and 1996, contesting 13 different House seats.

    (from DAC’s site)

    This guy gets a guernsey for the most unsuccesful contestant, and did stand in Lowe that year.

  7. Tut tut, and my my!

    By the way, the electoral exploits of Marcus Aussie-Stone:

    1972, Lowe (NSW) – lost to Billy McMahon (LP)
    1973, Parramatta (NSW) – lost to Philip Ruddock (LP)
    1974, NSW Senate – lost
    1975, Bass (Tas) – lost to Kevin Newman (LP)
    1975, Casey (Vic) – lost to Peter Falconer (LP)
    1975, Cook (NSW) – lost to Don Dobie (LP)
    1975, Diamond Vally (VIC) – lost to Neil Brown (LP)
    1975, Henty (VIC) – lost to Ken Aldred (LP)
    1975, Isaacs (VIC) – lost to David Hamer (LP)
    1975, Lang (NSW) – lost to Frank Stewart (ALP)
    1975, Paterson (NSW) – lost to Frank O’Keefe (NCP)
    1975, Werriwa (NSW) – lost to Gough Whitlam (ALP)
    1990, Wills (VIC) – lost to Bob Hawke (ALP)
    1993, Blaxland (NSW) – lost to Paul Keating (ALP)
    1996, Blaxland (NSW) – lost to Paul Keating (ALP)
    1996, Blaxland (NSW) – lost to Michael Hatton (ALP)
    1998, Bennelong (NSW) – lost to John Howard (LP)
    2005, Werriwa (NSW) – lost to Chris Hayes (ALP)

    From:

    http://mirandadevine.com/archives/2007/11/05/tonsil-hockey/

    MirandaDevine.comCultural

    Learnings of Conservative Mediocrity for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Middle Australia

  8. If we all think it’s ugly in the US, just wait for the vote in Pakistan. It’s gonna be a belter! If Musharref loses…
    Does our international political expert have an opinion? I’d love to hear from him about Pakistan. Will Musharref rort the election enough to stay in power? When was the last time a dictator got voted out of power democratically?? What are the Yanks gonna do? I’m surprised this election isn’t getting much attention. Perhaps everyone assumes it will be deferred indefinitely.

  10. Dio, it’s not an election, it’s a rhetorical question: who do you want? Musharaf’s gang, or Musharaf’s gang? Take ya pick.

  11. thanks KR , the reaction is consistent with a family relation

    the characteristics are similar:
    regular loser…no commonsense…picks fights with the pro’s & gets demolished ?

  13. Diogenes , the expert to whom you refer is not here …all you got is KR & me

    Assume our Dictator friend will try to rig the election & Bhutto’s assination increases his chances of success as her supporters may not come out in huge numbers now

    The UN may tutt tut the elections weren’t fair
    George’s response is likely to be unintelligible anyway but George has wrongly committed himself to only this dictator Musharref in Pakistan
    …what a mess.. nukes…muslim country…Pakistan secret service created terror group controlling Northern Pakistan

    my sense is Pakistan is a more serious policy problem than Iraq but George disagrees

  14. Edward – I told you it waqs anecdotal and 2nd hand. There’s no need to withdraw the post though I’m happy to accept that my memory of what was related to me over 20 years ago was false and the candidate in question was an independent – no the ALP candidate.

  15. ESJ, you’re going to have to do a bit better than #1106. All RB did was misremember a detail of what he acknowledged to be an “anecdote”. I doubt anyone came away from the comment with a wrong impression about this “former chief judge of a superior court in NSW” (whoever he might be).

  16. I would never intentionally slander a judge by suggesting things regarding the said bewigged person’s sexuality. I leave that to your Tory mate Bill Heffernan, a grand example of how much more accepting of gayness your average conservative politician is.

  19. Btw I used to know an anarchist with the misfortune (for an anarchist) of bearing the name “Paul Keating”. He actually stood against PJK in one election in the ’80s. He had been a taxi driver in Sydney in the ’70s and told me some anecdotal stuff regarding Sonia McMahon. However anarchist ex-cabbies are perhaps not the most reliable of sources so I’ll leave off repeating said anecdotes here at the risk of provoking another pompous outburst from ESJ.
    In any case this is supposed to be the US primary thread. Roll on Wisconsin – home of Milwaukee, the home of beer and cheese and the prime stronghold of the American Socialist Party before WW1 (and the Fonz somewhat later). I seem to remember an episode where Richie Cunningham got all enthusiastic about Adlai Stevenson…

  20. Wisconsin , the next challenge and what indeed would the Fonz say about it

    Seems a consistent 6 point lead to Obama after weighting
    another incremental addition to Obama’s lead

    which makes me wonder whether Hillary’s campaign contained any mathematicans as the proportion selection process does not favor excluding small States if the race is tight

  22. Actually, there was another political epsiode of Happy Days. They all went south on a freedom ride and sat in with some black activists. Some racist crackers came and tried to start a fight. The Fonz rose to deal with them and Ritchie persuaded him not to fight: “This is all about non-violence”. So I predict that the Fonz would have ended up as a sympathiser of the Panthers and would be a solid Obama supporter. His views on women were somewhat less advanced unfortunately so I couldn’t see him voting for Hilary.

  27. William #1125, Farrell Dobbs, the Trotskyist leader of the spectacular Minneapolis teamsters strike of 1934 (which was clearly the inspiration for the first half of Stallones only decent movie “FIST”) admitted in his memoirs that he voted for Herbert Hoover in 1932. So, although I’m in no position to argue for the superiority of my memory :), whatever his political position in 1956, I still think the Fonz would have moved leftwards in the ’60s. I was only a teenager when I watched the episode when Ritchie stopped him from beating up those Crackers. He was the Fonz and the point was of course that the Fonz would have wiped the floor with them. I SO wanted him to do it.

  28. William,

    The ALP candidate in Lowe in 1972 was a returned serviceman and former seaman who went on to become a barrister and President of the Industrial Court in NSW.

    RB’s post repeated rumours about:

    a) Sexuality
    b) deserter
    c) anti-war activism

    The legal consequences of that – and whether there was any intent by RB (which I accept he denies) are a different consideration.

  30. If a latter-day Fonz was James Deaning his way around a contemporary Happy Days set, there’s no question who he’d be rooting for in the Presidential Primaries.
    Why, the COOL candidate of course!
    Hipster Bludgers will require no furthur explanation, but I’d be more than happy to spell it out for the less astute.

    Mornin’ Glen.

  31. Hillary’s Dilemma:
    Can’t keep him on the porch one day, can’t kick him off it the next.

    Quote of the Day
    “They need to send him out of the country for a long, long time. I am angry at Bill Clinton and I think there are other Hillary people who are angry at Bill, who felt that she was running a very good, solid campaign — she wasn’t the exciting one, but she was the solid one — and then he came in and made it nasty, and single-handedly pushed away black voters.”

    — A superdelegate supporting Sen. Hillary Clinton, quoted by the Baltimore Sun, adding the former president “has screwed this thing up for her big-time.”
    http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/02/17/quote_of_the_day.html

  32. ESJ – Last four I.C. Presidents: – S C Taylor, A C Beattie W K Fisher and (currently ) F L Wright. I’m intrigued to know who that ALP candidate for Lowe was in 1972 now. Can’t find it via Google.

  34. Anyhoo, the argument that the Republicans will destroy Obama’s squeaky-clean image and paint him as an ultra-liberal should he win the nomination is a reasonable one and everyone is entitled to their predictions about it.

    Some other arguments I find more puzzling are:

    After a demonstration of how ‘experience’ is so profoundly a non-factor in Australian elections, where is the evidence that US Presidential elections are significantly different?

    Why will the Latino population decide this election, when the key swing states – Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania – all have relatively low Latino populations? Which 2004 Dem states are going to flip because of the Latino vote? California?

    As far as the “most liberal senator” ranking there’s a few points to make
    * It was 2007 only (prior to that he was ranked 10th and 16th)
    * HRC was ranked 16th in 2007; with few differences in voting (HRC voted against establishing a Senate Office of public integrity; for requiring temporary workers to return to their home countries every two years; for a ‘sense of Senate’ declatring the Iranian revolutionary guard a terrorist organization).
    * It’s a joke to say that Obama and Biden (#3!) are both more liberal than Russ Feingold and Bernie Sanders for example.
    *The rating, in many cases (particularlay Senators who have been missing a lot of votes, like Obama has, better reflects greater party solidarity than it does more liberal viewpoints.

  37. Martin B,

    Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado are all moving towards the Democrats over time, and have huge Hispanic populations. McCain being from Arizona means that won’t be in play, but the other three might. If anyone other than McCain was the candidate these would have been the best chance the Democrats had of picking up states that went Republican in 2004, but with McCain as the candidate I think the focus will turn back to Ohio and Virginia.

  38. Mornin’ all!

    I’m intrigued that so many of my fellow Bludgers are writing Hillary off so soon. She is still heavily favoured in the delegate-rich states of Texas, Ohio and Penn – and she still has the majority of declared SD’s. She is far from finished and may still finish this race slightly ahead in pledged delegates to add to that (so far) majority of SD’s. So… she is probably still the favourite.

    I’m all for the audacity of hope as far as Obama is concerned , but let’s not let our hope turn to – dare I say it – hubris. It’s waaaay too early for that.

  39. 1138 – Ferny Grover
    I refer you to posts 740 and 750 where a worst case scenario for Obama was done, taking into account large defeats in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.
    He still ended up ahead in pledged delegates and only slightly behind in total delegates.

  40. Ferny- One thing for sure is the polls aren’t going to help us much. In polls from Texas all taken on the 14th Feb there is a huge variation.
    1. Clinton 54% Obama 38%
    2. Clinton 48% Obama 41%
    3. Obama 48% Clinton 42%

    It’s anything between a 16% drubbing by Billary which would put her back in the chase and a 6% comfortable win by Obama which would be followed shortly by a concession speech by Billary.

  41. Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado are all moving towards the Democrats over time, and have huge Hispanic populations.

    Sure, but Ohio is larger than New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado put together in EV terms.

    There is no question that these states would be great pick-ups, and that a good Latino vote would obviously be helpful in them. But it is hyperbole to suggest that this demographic will ‘decide the election’.

  42. Asanque at 1139.

    I recall those posts well but they are very speculative and I wouldn’t be betting my house on those outcomes. I think Obama is storming home at the moment, but there’s a very long race to run and Hillary is very much in this race. The Clinton machine still has an awful lot of clout in the Party and I wouldn’t underestimate it. BHO has the MO but I wouldn’t be counting HRC out just yet. Not by a long shot.

    And somehow, I think Obama feels the same.

  43. 1142 – I agree with your overall analysis 🙂

    However, short of a miracle, unless Davidoff is wrong, or Edwards endorses Clinton, it would seem impossible for Clinton to make up the pledged delegate shortfall.

    So Clinton would need to win via super delegates.

    This is a possibility if Clinton performs strongly in Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania and the rest of the remaining states.

    However, I don’t believe Clinton will be successful in getting delegates reinstated from Florida and Michigan.

    Perhaps, if both Florida and Michigan had new primaries and Clinton won easily, she may lead in pledged delegates, but it would need to be better then current polls and the general trend is currently showing.

    So should we write Clinton off? No, she is a never say die candidate, has establishment backing and a large political machine.

  46. Asanque, I think it is still a reasonable possibility that the contenders could end up virtually neck and neck going into the Convention and that Hillary gets the nod by the SD’s. I’m having a hard time seeing a knock-out blow coming anytime soon from either contender. It’s possible that Hillary could win Texas, Ohio and Penn by massive margins. This was the expected outcome only a few weeks ago – but seems unlikely now. Even respectable margins in her favour would see the delegates divided only marginally in her favour… but enough to move her within striking distance at the Convention where the Clinton machine will be putting maximum pressure on SD’s.

    The fat lady is still having lunch and is nowhere near ready to sing…so let’s not strike up the band just yet.

  47. Pending something unbelievable, the likes of which she hasn’t produced this campaign, Hillary is done. There is just no rational way to look at the numbers and see her pegging back much of the lead that Obama has at all, particularly given her lack of cash and the continual string of endorsements and SD defections that Obama is getting.

  49. My gut feeling (which FWIW I have seen others express) is that if Obama has a pledged delegate lead of > ~100 by the end of the primaries then the SDs will be unable politically to overturn that. OTOH if the PD lead is < ~50 then moral arguments will have little force and the SDs will have an almost completely free hand.

  50. I don’t think Obama – or any of the leading commentators – shares your optimism Pancho. This is still a very tight race. Obama’s lead at the moment is (depending on who you believe) anywhere between 50 and 100 delegates. That’s nothing. There’s still around 1,000 needed by either side – and either side could get them. That’s the reality – both are still in this race and they’re not even in the final stretch yet.

    Now – the fact that Obama has any lead at all is staggering. This wasn’t in the script and no one, as recently as last month, would have believed it would be this way mid-February.

    I’m cheering him on, but the finish line is still not in sight and to call it this far out is, in my view, a mistake.

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